RockyRoadTravel
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Posts posted by RockyRoadTravel
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15 minutes ago, Marc in Calif said:
He'll cite whatever pre-election polls he can find to show that the voting was "rigged."
Polls. Real Clear Politics includes junk polls in their averages, unaccounted for, in a way that 538 doesn't. Hence the difference between their voting averages and RCP.
This election cycle there seems to be more hunk polling being done. I've brought this up in a previous post. HarrisX and Rasmussen seem to be churning out a lot of polls, and they are the best of the right wing biased agencies.
Has anyone seen any actual documentation of this? It's just an anecdotal impression I have at this point. But, to your point, this feeds into the defeated former President pointing to some poll some where that showed he should have won.
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7 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:
Are you saying it's something in the water? 😲
There's some connection beyond the Louisiana Purchase.
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6 hours ago, Pete1111 said:
Trump was live from PA today.
He brought a young Latino man to discuss how bad things are under Venezuelan socialism, and how the education system has been modeled after Cuba. After his address he repeated the speech in Spanish.
Some of the Dems get it, that Latino voters need their focus.
But, thinking back to the 2020 Dem convention,
the Party missed a chance to appeal.
IMO they fucked up a chance to win Latino confidence.
Let's see what happens next week.
That said, Florida seems out of reach to me.
Yet I am encouraged that Steven K proposes the possibility that voter preference in Florida might shift.
What has Venezuela got to do with anything? The only candidate proposing a dictatorship is Trump.
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The "red" states, plus Alaska and South Carolina, minus Illinois, Colorado and Minnesota.
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On 8/15/2024 at 1:16 PM, stevenkesslar said:
That's probably right. What obviously helps Republicans is they went from having equal registrations with Democrats in 2021 to now having a 1 million registered voter edge.
One Florida politico said that, in effect, shifts Florida from a generic R+2 to an R+10. If true, that's pretty overwhelming.
That said, what comes up may come down. DeSantis was definitely on a roll for a while. As far as I can tell from polls, he peaked after the hurricane, due to bipartisan support for the job he did cleaning up. But the Florida culture war show that led up to 2024 did not go so well for Ron - either in Florida, or nationally. So just because COVID and a hurricane led to a period of Republican dominance, I'm not sure I'd assume that is now long lasting. A lot of it depends on Hispanics, at least some of whom seem to be shifting to Harris.
At the Presidential level, there are four recent Florida polls. RCP says the average is Trump +6.3 in Florida. But the two polls in July when Biden was the candidate average Trump +8.5, whereas the two polls with Harris running average Trump +4 The most recent one, just out by Florida Atlantic, says Trump +3. So it seems to be getting closer.
There's an interesting comparison between two new polls by ActiVote, one of the nation and one of Florida. In the national vote, Harris leads by 5. In the Florida vote, Trump leads by 8. ActiVote spells out how they weighted the voting.
So in both cases ActiVote says conservatives are stronger than the unweighted sample. But particularly in Florida they say conservatives just massively outnumber liberals. Again, if true, that is overwhelming. Right now ActiVote is saying Harris is doing better than her national average, which is +3, and worse than the Florida average, which as I said above is as low as Trump +3 in one recent poll. All of this does suggests that the math just ain't gonna work for Democrats in Florida. But if it close, Democrats could flip back some other seats.
Which leads us back to the Senate. Rick Scott has never run anything other than a close race, for Guv or Senate. So maybe the Republican 1 million voter registration edge is his magic bullet. But I wouldn't rule it out as possible yet.
In most recent polls, Harris is also doing slightly better than Trump with centrists and Independents. ActiVote fits with another trend. When Biden was running, slightly more Democrats were going to vote for Trump than Republicans voting for Biden. Presumably based on worries about Biden's age. Now it has flipped. Trump is losing more of his base to Harris than Harris is to Trump.
That's what he gets for being a crook and a liar, I guess. 😉
Today's thought. All the "red" States are in the Missouri/Mississippi drainage basin, the rest of the country is "blue". (The blue exceptions being Illinois, Minnesota, Colorado, and red exceptions South Carolina, Florida, Alaska and Maine 2.)
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9 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:
That's the funny part. Tragic for MAGA world. But funny for me watching the losing raping lying felon just do his level best to lose. And lose big.
I mean, they just don't normally make losers that lose so big. But the losing raping lying felon can't help himself. He loses, and he breaks law. Can't stay focused on issues or platforms or messages if his life depended on it. Which it kind of does, since soon he's headed to the slammer.
This isn't me speculating about what a loser he is. Ed Rogers did it a few days ago to Mark Halperin. Alex Castellanos does it constantly. That's not even mentioning the Never Trumpers like Rick Wilson. Or the Republican donors. So we have all these Republican politicos who have won and won and won, all the way back to Reagan, saying Trump is a pathetic lying losing mess. And he's gone lose.
Today's thought. The peaceful transition of power, is one of the arguments for Washington DC to be recognized as a State. Coordinating security between, City police, National Guard and other federal agencies is currently needlessly complicated. The simplest and most efficient policing response in defense of democracy against the right-wing extremist threat to the peaceful transition of power is now, in the Trump era, a reality we have to face.
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1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:
Agreed. Some of her bounce seems like it was based on the fact that she's not old, and she is inspiring. I think we now know for sure that Biden was a drag on teh ticket, as he seemed to be. Hopefully Joe gets it, and it will helps him forgive Nancy. And Harris closed some of the gap with Senate candidates.
But there is still a pretty big difference, that in theory shows that she has room to grow Here's current polling averages on 538 for President. They don't have averages for Senate races, so I posted the range of recent polls:
Wisconsin President; Harris + 3.5 Wisconsin Senate; Baldwin +5 to + 11
Pennsylvania President; Harris + 2.1 Pennsylvania Senate: Casey +5 to +14
Michigan President; Harris + 3.5 Michigan Senate: Slotkin +1 to +10
Arizona President; Harris + 0.7 Arizona Senate: Gallego -1 to +11
Nevada President; Trump +0.2 Nevada Senate: Rosen +2 to+12
In theory she has room to grow in every one of those states.
Republican Ed Rogers was on Halperin's 2way a few days ago and said he thinks North Carolina is more likely to go Harris's way than Georgia. He said he has a bad feeling about NC, as a Republican. Roy Cooper is very popular, and the MAGA Republican Guv candidate is not. So that's another example of the difference. Democratic Guv candidate Klein is up between +4 and +10 in polls. Meanwhile Harris is one point behind Trump in NC when you average the six most recent polls.
It's appropriate that she will now start to talk issues and agenda, as opposed to vibe. Now she needs to sell it.
This next phase, you call it, with her talking issues and agenda. While she is doing that, Trump will criticize and complain about her platform, while running away from providing one of his own. It'll be irritating, as he always is.
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I'm not sure what thread this fits under. Harris current bump in the polls is raising her to the levels that the Senate Democratic Party candidates were already polling at, they were always ahead of Biden's numbers against Trump. If there is any further growth in the numbers, this phase is going to be harder to achieve.
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On 8/9/2024 at 9:33 AM, RockyRoadTravel said:
One thing about the defeated former President, he's very transparent. Every accusation is an admission of guilt.
With his weird press conference yesterday at Mar-o-lago the line that really stood out for me was what he said about Clinton. I think it was his first admission that he thinks he's going to lose the election.
He said (lied), in referring to Clinton, that he was "protective of her" and tried to calm down his crowds chants of "lock her up." He then went on, very creepily, with "there were things he could have done to her."
I think Trump is laying the ground work for the nonsense fairytale of "I protected Clinton, I was being Presidential, therefore President Harris should protect me."
Further on this previous post of mine. Trump is almost to the point where he is not going to be campaigning on issues anymore. (He's always attempted to wiggle free of being held to specific promises.) At the point that he decides, and believes, that he's behind in the polls I think he will stop fighting the election campaign, and focus on fighting the election itself.
He gave himself away at his unhinged press conference last week, "taking care of Clinton" and the creepy "the things we could have done to her." (You may have missed that with the focus on Walz using the preposition "in" instead of "of" about weapons of war.) If you can't play the game and win, the sore loser complains about the field conditions, and rules and the referees and ... whatever other excuse that creates an alternate narrative to the truth - you got beat.
What does the Harris campaign do about that? It can't be a focus of the campaign because then they are playing on Trump's unhinged field. At the same time they can't ignore the defeated former President's attacks on the democratic process setting up who knows what next December/January.
Does Harris continue to focus on values and policies, or try and weave the Trump threat to democracy into their freedom message? I do like the focus on freedom rather than democracy - it's seems more tangible and less theoretical to me, as well as the historical resonance.
In summary, soon the defeated former President will soon be campaigning against the election, rather than campaigning in the election.
- lookin and stevenkesslar
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I know this isn't the point that Trump was making, but I think there is a point in life where maybe one does "turn black".
Turn black in the sense that one becomes aware of racism. Not everyone is treated the same way and that some folks are not only physically white but also sociologically white, and some folks are not only physically black but also sociologically black and othered. I think that happens with gay kids too. The realization that we aren't all the same (of course we have to do it alone and not in solidarity with our families of origin).
Trump's comments of course had nothing to do with empathy and how and when folks become aware of the differences there are in society.
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40 minutes ago, Pete1111 said:
A winning business model is not part of "art of the deal."
Stiffing others is. Lot of shady lawyers helps.
Selling out to the Kremlin, and money laundering is his final strategy. DJT seems to run with a Russia style bank in Dominica.
Let's see how far he can go.
What's the Dominica bank connection? I haven't heard of that part of the scam.
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35 minutes ago, Suckrates said:
Lawrence O'Donnells brilliant takedown of the media for their pandering to Trump and being tough on Kamala. He rips them a new hole for the "trainwreck sham" Trump press conference @ Swamp-A-Lago, and how Trump "played" them.....And then calls out Trump for the FRAUD he is..
O'Donnell keeps begging Trump to sue him, it's a hilarious through line with him.
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37 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:
What's interesting about it is the Trump campaign has done a good job of lowering expectations for Harris. They have said she is dumb. And she can't speak to the press because she does not know how to form sentences without a teleprompter. Ironic, coming from Trump! So they are setting themselves up. Because whatever Harris is, she won't be the 2024 version of old Joe, as we saw him at his politically fatal debate.
I'll use that as a segue to throw this in, which I'm not sure where to put and which I don't want to start a new thread about:
Why Biden Was Really Forced out of the Race, According to Anita Dunn
The longtime presidential adviser blames the press and her party
That's a long and really interesting read that talks a lot about the first debate. I'm actually surprised she went public with what is mostly a bunch of gripes. But she might have figured my boss is out, and I'll at least take the chance to get it off my chest.
Three points about what she said, one of which deals with the debates.
First, I think Anita Dunn is right that the fact that Biden did so poorly obscured the fact that Trump did poorly, too. Specifically, she says, independents who were reacting on dials during the debate are just sick of Trump's lies, and reacting badly to them. And they liked Biden telling the truth. So if that is correct, and Trump does what he always does and spew lies, next time the lies and bile won't be obscured by a faltering old man on stage. Well, Trump will be the faltering old man with low mental acuity! 😲
Second, I can't recall a time when some political theory, when implemented, proved itself to be correct so quickly. The basic theory is that people didn't want either Trump or Biden. So if we replace one of them, that party wins. We now know without question that theory is true. Now we just need to see how true it is. It has helped that both Harris and Walz have completely smashed whatever expectations we had about them. They are doing incredibly well, so far. But the sense of relief is so deep and strong that it goes way beyond the specific talents of Harris or Walz.
Third, this was the part of what Dunn said I found tragic:
The tragedy about that statement is it seems to confirm that Dunn and Biden's closest advisers and family simply could not see what most of America saw. And now feels relieved about. You can talk all you want about how Joe Biden won his debate in 2008, or 2012, or 2020. But that is not the Joe Biden we see and hear today. And it does not mean he is senile. It sounds like they genuinely did not get that. And they did not get that, as long as Joe Biden was in the race, it was always going to be a referendum on Biden and his age. Even though it did not have to be. With 20/20 hindsight, that is what the debate helped crystallize. That this was going to be a referendum on Biden's age, and it just doesn't have to be. And now it isn't. Nothing personal, Joe.
It's a bit funny. Because the Democratic Party was the political force that in 1968 and 1972 reacted strongly against smoke filled rooms and party insiders controlling decisions. And nobody wants to go back to 1968 and having Mayor Daley decide who gets to be the nominee inside while his cops beat up protesters outside. But this is obviously not 1968. Harris/Walz was not the kind of team Mayor Daley would have picked in 1968. So it shows a lot of growth on the part of the Democratic Party. And now I just have this sense of gratitude that a very different set of party leaders - Pelosi, Obama, Schumer, Jeffries - did something tough that needed to be done.
Fourth. In hindsight it might be a good thing that Biden did SO badly in the debate that he had no choice but to step down as the candidate.
What America needs is an Italian mother. Hearing Nancy Pelosi on the interview circuit for her book, she is on point all the time. She ran Congress like she must have run a house of five kids. With love and precision. She probably spoke to Biden in the same manner, "we love you Joe, it's time to go, to cement your legacy."
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10 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:
So fuck both of you guys to getting into bullet rabbit holes! You made me go down dark rabbits holes again. 😉
You are most welcome. We wouldn't want you to be free and clear of rabbit holes. If you start sprouting a tail, post photos.
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9 hours ago, unicorn said:
Trump, give up an opportunity to spout lies? You can't be serious.
Sigh
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5 hours ago, unicorn said:
Only in extreme cases are medical personnel released from HIPPA/confidentiality laws. For example, if someone were to reveal to his physician that he intended to kill someone (or himself), or if there is child/spousal/elder abuse, confidentiality does go out the window. Unfortunately, outing a liar, while perhaps in the public's best interest, doesn't qualify. Trump has spouted the most awful lies about his health. Certainly, in my mind, the man's a public danger. However, if I were his physician, and I were to point out his lies, even if the lies were about things I reportedly said (but did not), I would be subject to both civil and criminal liability. At the very least, I suspect my license would be put on probation, if not suspended, and there would certainly be lots of requirements to get out of the mess, such as taking ethics courses, and so on. The exceptions are requirements to report any suspicion of child/elder/spousal abuse, and Tarasoff warning to protect those in immediate danger.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarasoff_v._Regents_of_the_University_of_California
I expect that the HIPPA regulations are well known by anyone who has any involvement with the medical system, they are to me. The point I was making is that Trump, the patient involved who we are talking about, could/should waive his own patient confidentiality and allow the medical personnel to speak publicly. I guess I needed to be specific about that in my previous post, sigh.
In any case it would be good to know from the medical personnel involved what specific injury happened. It might help tamp down the silliest of the conspiracy theories.
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13 minutes ago, unicorn said:
It's called patient confidentiality/privacy. I find it hard to believe you've never heard of this. Health care personnel can only release information with the patient's consent. Is this not general knowledge?
How can I put this? Duh. Yes, of course. For you and I, neither of who have chosen to be public representatives.
However, this is a public attack on a public figure being guarded by public servants. Did you know that patient confidentiality/privacy can be waived in the public's interest? Not that the defeated former President ever gave a shit about the public's interest (Americans are still waiting on the tax returns).
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1 minute ago, Suckrates said:
You wont hear from any doctor, because THERES ISNT any doctor. That bitch Lara Trump just stuck a bandaid on him for visual excitement at the RNC, and as soon as it was over, the bandaid was off... I gotta say it was a Sick, ingenious plan.
As for his rating, its basically just the MAGA segment and a few stragglers that lost their way.... Majority of Americans do not support anything that man stands for.... but Trump brings in ratings, so thats why he gets all the media attention which makes him "seem" more popular....
The defeated former President did go to the hospital, and there were medical personnel who tended to him. I want to hear from them, and not the nonsense from Dr. Ronny who wasn't anywhere near the scene.
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One thing about the defeated former President, he's very transparent. Every accusation is an admission of guilt.
With his weird press conference yesterday at Mar-o-lago the line that really stood out for me was what he said about Clinton. I think it was his first admission that he thinks he's going to lose the election.
He said (lied), in referring to Clinton, that he was "protective of her" and tried to calm down his crowds chants of "lock her up." He then went on, very creepily, with "there were things he could have done to her."
I think Trump is laying the ground work for the nonsense fairytale of "I protected Clinton, I was being Presidential, therefore President Harris should protect me."
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4 minutes ago, Suckrates said:
Honestly, that has ALWAYS been my position. I believe Trumps team found this loaner kid, offered him a bunch of money to participate in the scam. I dont think they ever thought he would be killed, but figured if he was, noone would really care, which is awful to say, but plausible coming from Trump who told his own nephew to let his disabled son DIE because he was a burden and money drain. So who really cares about some rando stranger ? There is NO WAY, an AR-15 bullet slicing thru your ear leaves NO damage or scar..... Trump played America once again !
I still want to hear from the medical personnel who actually treated the defeated former President. Why the silence? I expect it's shrapnel, and the more information the fewer the conspiracy theories.
Also, it's amazing that even with an assassination attempt Trump still couldn't crack a 50% approval rating. Americans really doesn't like the guy.
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17 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:
First, if we want to discuss what real service means, we need to ask some very urgent questions.
When Donald Trump was serving his nation on January 6th, 2021, by starting a riot, what was he doing minute by minute? At what point, if ever, did he contact his rioters and instruct them, "Do not try to overturn this election"? At what point, if ever, did he contact his rioters and say "Do not hang Mike Pence"? At what point, if ever, did he contact his rioters and instruct them, "Do not kill Nancy Pelosi"? At what point, if ever, did he contact his rioters and tell them, "Stop breaking the bones of cops"? And if Trump did not call his rioters and tell them NOT to kill Pelosi, hang Pence, break the bones of cops, and try to overturn an election, why not? What is his definition of "service" to his nation?
If the Raping Felon and Hillbilly Venture Capitalist want to talk about character and "service", let's go!
Man who served under Walz says governor retired before unit had deployment news
Unfortunately, Donald Trump did not abandon his rioters or their crimes, even when every Congressional Republican they wanted to attack was begging him to do so. Unfortunately, JD Vance has not abandoned his right wing billionaire venture capitalist friends, who want more tax cuts.
Regardless, even though JD Vance had the right to retire from his service to Silicon Valley billionaires to run for Congress to get them even more Trump fat cat tax cuts, they want to litigate the minute by minute of how Walz retired after decades of service in the military to run for US House.
So let's talk about character and national service.
As Tim Walz likes to say, "Come on!"
More lies. Walz does not want to take Donald Trump's guns away. When did Donald Trump ever hold a gun in service to his nation? The only thing we know about Trump is his cult would be fine if he killed someone on 5th Ave. And those are the slime ball felon's own words.
And extra credit goes to Chris LaCivita, who has gotten rich packaging lies and hate for a raping convicted felon like Trump.
These men have the character of slime.
The answer to Walz' military record is two fold: one, neither Vance not Walz were in combat roles, and two - bone spurs.
I wonder who he is going to vote for? I doubt it's Trump.
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20 hours ago, Suckrates said:
At his ridiculous LIE filled press conference today, Trump said he has agreed to 3 debates with Cackles.... 9/4 on Fox, 9/10 on NBC and 9/25 on ABC....
Very clever scheduling of Trump to make the Fox debate FIRST, on a turf that will most likely favor him and treat him kindly.... The other 2, less so...
So I am 100% sure that after the Fox debate, he will back out of the other 2 claiming Harris was a "nasty woman" to him, attacked him and he will not do anymore debates with her.... The thing about Trump is that he is so transparent and predictable at this point, that we all know the game he is playing and the next move he will make.
Is Trump's saying Kamabala an attempt at a nickname, or is more mispronunciation (like all those countries he couldn't pronounce) and evidence of even more cognitive decline of the defeated former President. @EmmetK perhaps as an expert all things MAGA you could tell us?
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Vance is turning into a bit of a campaign stalker. Arriving at the airport the same time as Harris, and prowling the tarmac looking for press attention. Yes, weird. Very weird.
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50 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:
Steve Kornacki on MSNBC did an excellent factual take down of Walz yesterday. Specifically, about all the talk about how Walz maybe helps with red America. One small problem is there is absolutely no evidence of that in 2018 or 2022, when he was elected Guv. Walz ran up huge majorities in the Twin Cities, and got clobbered everywhere else. Including in his old Congressional district in southern Minnesota, which I know well since I went to college there. He's an excellent poster child. Since you have two versions of the same guy. When he was a moderate US Rep with an A rating from the NRA, he did just fine in a slightly right of center House district. But as a progressive Guv, he lost the love. The lesson I take from that is that if Kamala Harris really wanted to send a signal, she might have chosen Mark Kelly. Better still, choose Joe Manchin.
I think Harris picked Walz because she feels they are going to win if the Democrats stay united. She wasn't picking based on the short term election goal, but the longer term governing goal.
Can Democrats Keep The Senate? Could Florida Be In Play?
in Politics
Posted
If Tester doesn't win in Montana, how does the Harris campaign convey how completely obstructionist and insane a MAGA Senate is going to be, while sticking to their positive future vibes message?
It's a criticism I have of the Democrats in Congress, not that I have an answer, it seems to me that they've never really been able to articulate how obstructionist the GOP has been for the last 14 years. In 2010 the Tea Bagging crazies took over the GOP agenda - and created chaos in government to distract from the Supreme Court legislating from the bench, with their life time appointments and their Christian Sharia law outlook.