RockyRoadTravel
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Posts posted by RockyRoadTravel
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1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:
I don't recall any comments Halperin has made about Silver. Although it would make sense to me that Halperin would tend to prefer Silver to Lichtman. This is overly simplistic. But one could describe Halperin and Silver as believing in a theory of campaigning. They're the pundits and pollsters who will give you their brilliant analysis of how the campaign shaped who won. Or what the polls told us about the percentage chances that Hillary would win. Lichtman says hogwash to all that. He has a theory of governance. At the simplest level, his keys say that strong governance is rewarded with another term for the incumbent party. Weak governance means we throw the bums out. I think Lichtman is right.
Which drives Lichtman nuts. He says that every election people say something is different this time so his keys don't apply. And then they do.
I think if Biden had NOT dropped out and gone on to win, that would have been a validator of Lichtman's theory. Meaning that the incumbent party had enough going for it that they managed to elect someone who voters did not particularly like. I think Truman in 1948 would be an example of that. There's a good argument that people were not voting for Truman. They were voting for FDR's policies. If Harris wins it's a different version of the same thing. Lichtman's keys suggest the incumbent party has the wind at its backs. So if you switch out an old and unpopular leader for a younger and fresher one, the incumbent party should win.
While Lichtman is a historian, he is dealing with mathematical probabilities as well. He says that his party mandate key is the single best predicter of all the keys. 23 out of 28 times the incumbent party was united behind their candidate, he won. She would be the first woman, but these odds are on her side. By comparison, his scandal key has only turned 11 times, and 7 out of the 11 times the incumbent party was involved in scandal, like Watergate or Monicagate, they lost. Lichtman has argued that Republicans lost the battle by impeaching Clinton, but won the war because it was a key factor in Gore's defeat. The polling for that election backs him up on that. A President appearing senile is NOT something that happens a lot, so you can argue with either Biden or Trump you can't really measure age or infirmity being a factor based on the past. Although FDR in 1944 might be an example. He was on his last legs, sick pun intended. But he won anyway.
I think his main bias is that pundits like him, who try to be objective and dig deep, are brilliant. And he is. I think his deepest bias is against what he views as crappy mainstream media. He trashed Dana Bash for what he saw as a softball interview with Harris and Walz. But many of his Republican guests trash Trump regularly for being such an awful candidate. What I like about him most is the breadth of his contacts. Right now he is definitely a force for hearing out all sides politely. But also not buying the bullshit.
Lichtman's keys predate the alternate reality of the MAGA echo chamber of fake news, or if not fake, only reporting on a selected set of facts which would support the preordained "truth". There are at least three of his keys that are heavily impacted by the partisan right news ecosystem. My point being, the keys are probably less neutral to the manipulation of public opinion than they use to be.
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When will DJT stock prices fall below $16?
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In the debate I think it would serve Harris's campaign well to answer every question with the economy. Saying over and over again about the mess Trump left of the economy, about the loss of jobs (particularly manufacturing jobs), about the Democratic record on job creation. Jobs, jobs, jobs.
Don't get diverted by the twice impeached defeated former President's dodges and vague nothingness of answers. He's a liar. Make the point and move on to the economy. Four grand juries of average Americans have recommended charging Trump with crimes. Make the point on move on to the economy.
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1 hour ago, Moses said:
Do you think that if you post 3 identical posts, it will look more convincing?
Obvious facts are usefully repeated when speaking with a Putin/Trump apologist. Try to focus on the facts of Trump's slavish behavior to Putin - if you can. Takes a bit of thinking, give it a try.
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Well she could write up her own pre-nup agreement. She'd even be able to figure out (hopefully) the paperwork for the conjugal visits in prison.
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On 9/5/2024 at 3:04 AM, Moses said:
It's because Putin just announced, what Kremlin supports Harris.
He said yesterday on The Far East Economical forum:
"As for the favorites, it is not for us to determine. It is, after all, the choice of the American people. I said that our favorite, if I may say so, was the current president, Mr. Biden. He was removed from the race, but he recommended all his supporters to support Ms. Harris. We will do the same - we will support her. That is the first thing. And secondly, she laughs so expressively and infectiously. This shows that she is doing well."
You win the word salad award of the day! Congratulations.
It's not complicated. Trump will give Putin Ukraine, like he did 2016 - 2020. The war on Ukraine was waged by Russia all through the Trump Presidency. The Democrats have supported funding the Ukrainian resistance to Russia interference in Ukraine (2014 - 2020) and the later invasion. You want or need to believe Putin (he lies) rather than facts. пожалуйста (pozhaluysta) comrade.
Is this the only Putin propaganda you believe, or do you swallow everything Putin says with no critical thought?
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On 9/5/2024 at 3:04 AM, Moses said:
It's because Putin just announced, what Kremlin supports Harris.
He said yesterday on The Far East Economical forum:
"As for the favorites, it is not for us to determine. It is, after all, the choice of the American people. I said that our favorite, if I may say so, was the current president, Mr. Biden. He was removed from the race, but he recommended all his supporters to support Ms. Harris. We will do the same - we will support her. That is the first thing. And secondly, she laughs so expressively and infectiously. This shows that she is doing well."
You win the word salad award of the day! Congratulations.
It's not complicated. Trump will give Putin Ukraine, like he did 2016 - 2020. The war on Ukraine was waged by Russia all through the Trump Presidency. The Democrats have supported funding the Ukrainian resistance to Russia interference in Ukraine (2014 - 2020) and the later invasion. You want or need to believe Putin (he lies) rather than facts. пожалуйста (pozhaluysta) comrade.
Is this the only Putin propaganda you believe, or do you swallow everything Putin says with no critical thought?
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On 9/5/2024 at 3:04 AM, Moses said:
It's because Putin just announced, what Kremlin supports Harris.
He said yesterday on The Far East Economical forum:
"As for the favorites, it is not for us to determine. It is, after all, the choice of the American people. I said that our favorite, if I may say so, was the current president, Mr. Biden. He was removed from the race, but he recommended all his supporters to support Ms. Harris. We will do the same - we will support her. That is the first thing. And secondly, she laughs so expressively and infectiously. This shows that she is doing well."
You win the word salad award of the day! Congratulations.
It's not complicated. Trump will give Putin Ukraine, like he did 2016 - 2020. The war on Ukraine was waged by Russia all through the Trump Presidency. The Democrats have supported funding the Ukrainian resistance to Russia interference in Ukraine (2014 - 2020) and the later invasion. You want or need to believe Putin (he lies) rather than facts. пожалуйста (pozhaluysta) comrade.
Is this the only Putin propaganda you believe, or do you swallow everything Putin says with no critical thought?
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3 minutes ago, JKane said:
The Republican party recovering enough integrity to unite behind Liz Cheney in 4 years would be a miracle and as long as it meant the extinction of MAGA I'd be OK with losing to her.
More likely they'll all go (even harder) misogynist, like they started down the KKK-junior path in response to Obama's election.
Time will tell I suppose. That platitude is all I got!
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These endorsements are interesting, and caution with getting what you wish for. Liz Cheney will be a formidable candidate for the 2028 GOP nomination. I don't know if the Democrats are ready.
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6 hours ago, Stable Genius said:
If they had any sense of the ironic, or any shame. Awful.
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3 minutes ago, Moses said:
Could you please name here 1-2 actions?
This thread is about DJT stock plummeting. You should start your own thread rather than high jacking this one. However, I will indulge your question. Hopefully the DOJ is going to release the information on the most recent attempts by Russia to influence the USA election. So far they have been quiet on which campaign they have favored, I expect to try and do their jobs, keep their heads down and try to avoid the bullshit storm from Trump. Good luck with that DOJ. All previous interference by Russia has been in Donald Trump's favor.
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9 hours ago, Moses said:
Oh, you suppose Harris says truth? Are you so innocent?
How to know politic lies? His lips moving.
Police Misconduct Cases: Harris has been criticized for failing to prosecute violent police officers as attorney general and for taking a more relaxed approach to law enforcement overall.
Criminal Cases: Allegations of corruption and misconduct by law enforcement. Her office has defended convictions despite new evidence that suggests possible flaws in the process, such as the case of convicted felon Kevin Cooper, who was denied a retrial based on DNA evidence.
Drug and Misdemeanor Cases: Harris has been widely criticized for continuing to aggressively prosecute misdemeanor marijuana possession cases at a time when public opinion in California was beginning to shift toward loosening such laws.
Artificially Delaying Retrials In several cases, her office has resisted reconsideration of convictions when new evidence was presented, as in the case of Daniel Larson, drawing criticism from civil rights groups.
And getting back to your original post, after that diversion, Putin lies. Putin's interests show he wants Trump re-elected. Trump is the candidate who is going to give Putin Ukraine, as Trump did last time he was in office. The war in Ukraine may have started 2014 after the Sochi Olympics, and it continued all through the Trump presidency in the Donbas regions of eastern Ukraine, weakening Ukraine until the eventual invasion. Trump's just the only President who said and did nothing about it (other than holding up aid to assist Russia).
And all of this had nothing to do with DJT stocks. Continuing to fall. He will want to dump his stock. It'll send the stock value down to pennies. Will he screw over any small-time MAGA investors like that? Will they care?
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15 hours ago, Moses said:
It's because Putin just announced, what Kremlin supports Harris.
He said yesterday on The Far East Economical forum:
"As for the favorites, it is not for us to determine. It is, after all, the choice of the American people. I said that our favorite, if I may say so, was the current president, Mr. Biden. He was removed from the race, but he recommended all his supporters to support Ms. Harris. We will do the same - we will support her. That is the first thing. And secondly, she laughs so expressively and infectiously. This shows that she is doing well."
News flash. Putin lies. He wants his lap dog back as president, Donald Trump. Again. News flash. Putin lies.
- JKane, Marc in Calif, stevenkesslar and 1 other
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It hit $17.86 today. (Announcement I didn't go looking for the information.) Further slide expected. Trump is so going to dump this stock when he can and cash out.
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1 hour ago, lookin said:
Personally, I've never cosied up to a Log Cabin Republican, but if someone is gay and also buys into a politically conservative worldview I imagine it's good to have a group who shares the same views. I wouldn't make it illegal, that's for sure, and I'd do my best not to be judgmental unless I felt that I was being judged for being a gay liberal.
I might think they're naive or perhaps misinformed in some ways, but I expect they'd think the same of me. So I'd willingly enter into a debate and see where we come out.
But, just like the mainstream Republican party has been infested by the Trump lunacy, the Log Cabin Republicans probably have too. And I doubt it's easy. To be a Mar-a-Lago Cabin Republican, I'd have to be attracted to guys, long for life pre-Stonewall, and pretend that Donald Trump should be America's boss and the leader of the free world. It would be a heavy lift.
I think the hardest part would be finding some orange lip gloss so I didn't leave any prints on his ass. 💋
Not everyone can afford a double life
- stevenkesslar and lookin
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Interesting
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I'm beginning to think that Fred Trump told young Donald that every time he lies his penis would grow, and young Donald believed him. Now he's just mad and hasn't figured out that it shrinks instead.
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The thing about this "great debate" is that debating isn't a skill that a President particularly needs. Vision, values, planning, hard-working, collaborative, attentive, methodical - those are all attributes needed by a President. Being able to stand on a stage for 90 minutes and perform answers to predictable answers - much less essential.
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On 8/25/2024 at 5:43 PM, stevenkesslar said:
I feel like I should defend Halperin a little. Maybe it's my alleged crush on him. 😉
Steve and Halperin sitting in a tree, "p-r-o-g-n-o-s-t-i-c-a-t-i-n-g"
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On 8/21/2024 at 12:01 AM, Marc in Calif said:
I expect that the surprise will involve some type of "solution" to the war on Gaza:
How might it work? Drumpf and Netanyahu have supposedly devised a plan to bypass Biden and Blinken and give Drumpf the pleasure of announcing a "solution" that he helped to broker. This will happen during the final days of October to help influence the election.
Interesting speculation. I do expect that Trump is currently interfering to try to prevent a cease fire being agreed to. It's all about campaign issues for him, not solutions.
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57 minutes ago, KeepItReal said:
Insiders have been selling the stock - that is usually a bad sign. Some have sold a quarter or more of their holdings, as they are able.
Sometimes, if I'm working on something a bit complicated, I bring up a website on another browser that shows DJT stock falling in real time. It seems just.
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3 hours ago, Stable Genius said:
I have never once smiled and provided a thumbs-up at my parents burial plot. This is beyond weird.
Is nothing sacred to the Trump campaign? Is there no venue where he won't bring in his little rag-and-bone circus? Attempting to make political points over the bodies of our war dead. Just when I thought he couldn't go any lower, he manages to surprise me. A disgusting display of false piety.
Bertolt Brecht, German play write, is quoted as saying "even the dead aren't safe."
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16 minutes ago, reader said:
If Trumpsters liked the stock on $66,, they must love it at $19.
From CNBC
The monthslong Trump Media stock slide continued Wednesday, as shares of the company majority-owned by former President Donald Trump fell below $20 for the first time since the Truth Social maker went public in March of this year.
As of 12:45 p.m. ET, the stock price of DJT has dropped more than 75% from its intraday high on March 26, the day the company debuted on the Nasdaq stock exchange.
Trump owns nearly 59% of Trump Media’s stock. Even after losing much of its value, Trump’s stake at Wednesday’s stock price is still worth more than $2.2 billion — more than half of his on-paper net worth, according to Forbes.
Trump, and other company executives and insiders, are bound by lock-up agreements that have so far barred them from cashing in on their shares.
But the lock-ups are set to expire as soon as Sept. 20, at which point Trump may choose to start selling his shares.
Last week, Devin Nunes CEO of DJT dumped the 25% of his stock he was allowed to get rid of, for $600,000+ dollars. On September 20th insiders can dump the stock they were given. If you own stock in DJT, get rid of it before Sept 20th.
Maybe Devin needed money to continue his legal campaign against @devinnunescow
- stevenkesslar and KeepItReal
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Biden to defeat Trump in election 2024 | Allan Lichtman
in Politics
Posted
I agree that an economic populist agenda is needed. I made that point in the Great Debate thread, label the convicted felon and then pivot to the economy, label the anti-choice extremist and pivot to the economy, label the self-dealing corruption and pivot to the economy. Rinse and repeat.
However, when pundits talk about the "white-working class" there's this veil of unspoken racism it feels to me. I have the same reaction to the phrase "white slavery", as if it's somehow more important and needs to be singled out from slavery in general.
Trump is appealing to the WHITE working-class (with all the implied racism), and Harris needs to appeal to the white WORKING-CLASS (without the racism). If they both do that, the election will demonstrate if people care more about their race privilege situation or about their economic situation. Complicating things is that I recognizing in some economically distressed town in West Virginia, it's got the poorest county in the country, it's pretty hard to hear you've got any king of privilege (racial or otherwise) at all.