RockyRoadTravel
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Posts posted by RockyRoadTravel
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10 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:
Well, I'll give you this. That is factually correct. Sometimes you can get the facts right,
Often times my best conversations are with conservatives who recognize a set of facts (and don't just cherry pick ones that support their preconceived bias) and just come to a different conclusion than I do - based on a set of real world facts. I value honest opinion. Making shit up, as the defeated former President and his minions do daily, undermines representative democracy, civil society and the rule of law.
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Again.
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I tried to delete a triple posting
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I'm going to go back to the administrator versus the campaigner. Biden is a competent administrator, and less so a campaigner. The defeated former President, was incompetent and loves campaigning.
In my opinion in 2020 it was less about Biden winning than it was about Trump losing. Biden didn't so much defeat Trump as Trump defeated himself. The majority of Americans were tired of the chaos and the incompetence of the Trump years, his weaponizing the Justice Department, his self dealing, picking fights with everyone but dictators and authoritarians who he loved. Trump defeated himself.
It's four years later and Americans have forgotten, somewhat, about the chaos and incompetence of Trump. Is Trump going to defeat himself this time? I don't know. However, this time, the Democrats need to be running someone who can campaign and defeat Trump (if Trump doesn't defeat himself again).
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18 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:
Stop (don't stop). You're making me blush
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On 7/6/2024 at 2:00 PM, EmmetK said:
Liz Cheney is a LIAR, HYPOCRITE, and a CRIMINAL.
Angelo Roncalli was a forger, a smuggler and lied to authorities to commit his crimes. His crime, smuggling Italian orphans out of the hands of Nazis. He became Pope John XXIII.
Even IF Liz Cheney was a criminal, which obviously she isn't, her crime would have been bringing the worst President (you can pick worst in which way - incompetence, self-enrichment and corruption, morally, threat to the rule of law, flat out lazy) to justice. Brava Liz.
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42 minutes ago, Moses said:
Well, he had weak legs, not brains.
The same with Biden. He stumbled, and delivered infra-structure, substantial climate change action, reduced the trade deficit with China, strongest jobs growth rate since the 60's. I could go on, and I'm not even a Biden supporter. I do get your point though, is he going to be as effective as he has been in the past four years, over the next four years. He couldn't be worse than the defeated former incompetent President.
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On 1/29/2024 at 4:25 PM, stevenkesslar said:
Then again, maybe you don't. Why do you support Trump's effort to block solutions to the problem of fentayl deaths? Especially when Trump himself let fentanyl deaths get totally out of control?
Fentanyl deaths almost TRIPLED under Trump. Biden has slowed the rate of drug death overdoses down. There is some evidence that, after the pandemic ended, he has at least stopped any additional increase in drug deaths.
DONALD TRUMP IS THE LORD OF DRUG DEATH. IF YOU WANT TEENS TO DIE OF FENTANYL, YOU WANT DONALD TRUMP IN THE WHITE HOUSE
While Trump lied and whined about how Mexico would pay for a border wall, what Mexican drug lords gave us instead were these three things: 1) DEATH, 2) DEATH, and 3) DEATH. All thanks to the incompetent whining lying non-leader DONALD DEATH TRUMP
Fentanyl was a problem Trump inherited. But instead of solving it, the impotent non-leader turned it into a TRUMP DEATH WAVE
Fentanyl deaths 2020: 56,516
Fentayl deaths up almost TRIPLE under Donald Death Trump. What did Trump do other than whine and lie and give tax breaks to himself and his rich friends while Americans died? If we want more fentanyl death and more tax cuts to the rich, we want Trump.
If you want to do something to actually stop DEATH, @EmmetK, you should get behind this bipartisan immigration deal to actually do something about it. Not just whine and lie and misstate facts.
Of course, Trump wants to kill any bipartisan law. Just like he killed anything bipartisan and good during his failed Presidency. Trump says he wants a "perfect" immigration law only. What a sick, cruel, mean, horrible joke. What Trump means is that he will tolerate MORE DEATH to win an election.
And you just go along for the ride about the LIES, @EmmetK. You are so sloppy and wrong with facts that I assume you do not even know that you are comparing fentanyl deaths under Trump to all drug overdose deaths under Biden. The CDC article YOU hyperlinked said all drug overdose deaths went up 14 % from 2020 to 2021. Not double, as you incorrectly claimed. You can not be trusted with facts. Just like Trump.
If you want to compare ALL drug overdose deaths, not just fentanyl, this is the correct data:
with the fentanyl
You use that number, 106,699, for Biden 2021. So you should use 91,799 for the last year of Trump. That a 16 % increase. Not double. You can not be trusted with facts.
There is no doubt that fentanyl deaths have exploded as a percentage of ALL drug overdose deaths. That USAFacts death chart above says fentanyl deaths went from 19,413 in 2016 to 56,516 in 2020 to 70,601 in 2021 to 73,654 in 2022. So if you want ACCURATE percentages, fentayl deaths about TRIPLED under four years of DONALD DEATH TRUMP. They went up about 30 % under two years of Biden, with most of that increase in the first year.
Which is worse, fentanyl deaths TRIPLING under four years of Trump, or going up 30 % under two years of Biden? Why would we want Trump's lies and failed leadership back?
It's hard to get recent data on either fentanyl overdose deaths, or all drug overdose deaths. But the available data suggests that Biden has at least stopped the problem from getting worse.
This 2022 report claims that under Biden drug overdose deaths actually went down modestly from the 2020/2021 pandemic spike:
It is very concerning. Biden is trying to do something bipartisan about it.
The record is very clear. DONALD DEATH TRUMP FAILED, MISERABLY. If we use fentanyl deaths, they almost TRIPLED under Trump. Overall drug overdose deaths, including fentanyl, almost doubled.
If I use 106,699 for 2021 - your number, @EmmetK - and the CNN number 111,355 for 2023, that's a 4.3 % increase. By any standard using actual facts and actual math, Trump let the problem grow wildly out of control. Biden has at least slowed down the increase in deaths. Or perhaps stopped any increase. He needs a bipartisan law to actually turn the numbers around and start a decline.
Why is Trump and MAGA against bipartisan efforts to stop drug deaths? Trump is the Lord of drug overdose deaths in America. That is a fact.
Sort of related. The Supreme Court managed to throw out the Sackler drug family settlement. (Where the Sackler family moved their head office to some obscure town in upstate New York in a blatant case of judge shopping, where they knew they had a judge who bought into the theory that the family members could be shielded from future prosecution from even people who weren't involved in the current suit. I digress.) Hopefully there can be a - somewhat - speedy rehearing of the case and a new settlement come to, without another bogus case of immunity being involved.
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1 hour ago, Suckrates said:
Josh Shapiro doesnt have as wide a reach and Q-score as Witmer. Afterall she had a miurder plot planned for her. I would have to look up Shapiros accomplishments.
Effectively governing in the face of obstructionist Republicans. Just what Washington DC needs.
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Karin Jean Pierre has got to go.
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On 7/6/2024 at 5:30 PM, Bingo T Dog said:
If the defeated former President is elected (God help us all) he would definitely sign a federal law mandating government control over women's bodies, if it was sent to him by a MAGA House/Senate majority.
Much like any issue, prevention is the way to go rather than obsessing after that fact over something that often could have been prevented. The extremists hate abortion so much then what are they proposing to prevent unwanted pregnancies? Spoiler alter - nothing.
The best way to reduce abortion rates is to prevent unwanted pregnancies. And no I'm not suggesting hanging photos of the defeated former President in every classroom.
Federal mandates that birth control is universally available
Sex education and health information in all schools
Paid parental leave
Expanded childcare services in both urban and rural settings
In the USA where abortions are being outlawed and criminalized the abortion rate is 15.9/1000 women. In Canada where abortions are considered a medical issue between a woman and her doctor, and are fully covered by universal health insurance the rate is 12.3/10000 women. Government control over women's bodies isn't the answer (MAGA extremists), prevention and supporting families is a far better answer.
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When I see Gavin Newsom campaign - man he could skewer the defeated former President - I can't help think he's campaign for 2028.
The defeated former President was relatively silent immediately after the debate, letting the press coverage be about Biden's bad night, rather than the constant lies Trump was telling. No wonder he rose in the polls.
Trump is talking again. His polls number will likely go down a bit again. Trump does best when he shuts up.
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What did the former defeated President used to call not getting to work until 11AM so he could watch TV in the morning - was it executive time?
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Wow. I hope you feel better now. That was a lot of hate spewing.
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It's curious that the Fed is continuing to resist interest cuts. Interest rate cuts would be a strong signal for "average Americans" about the strength of the current economy. Our allies, with higher inflation rates, are cutting rates (other than Japan which is a unique situation).
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This discussion has deteriorated to posts of hot reporters, I'm not entirely opposed.
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22 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:
I agree.
I like Newsom. He's my Guv. But a Harris/Newsom ticket makes no sense, for a whole bunch of reasons. I've assumed for years Newsom's actions have been anchored to positioning himself for 2028 [or 2024, had Biden not run]. It's the weird thing about politics. For him to win in 2028, it probably means Biden or Harris have to lose in 2024. And if that happens, he'd be a very viable candidate in 2028 I think. But if Harris is the nominee, and she wins, I can't see Newsom challenging her in 2028 if she sought a second term. But that is a whole bunch of hypotheticals.
Harris/Shapiro would be a good pick, too. And if I go by today's polls, PA is a slightly harder win than MI. That said, I think two women on the ticket would be exciting. Particularly with old gross grabby hands on the top of the MAGA ballot.
Speaking of cognitive decline, I am schizo on this topic.
The rational part of me thinks Lichtman is right, and running Harris without letting her be the incumbent (meaning Biden does not resign) is just one more possible nail in the Democrats' coffin.
The emotional part of me feels that Biden/Whitmer would completely change the dynamics of the race, in a positive way, and give Democrats the energy and actual excitement they're lacking. For sure, she would be better able than Biden to articulate a vision of change and what we need to fight for.
Typo on names in your last paragraph
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10 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:
I don't think this has been posted.
John Oliver did a great piece on Project 2025.
Spoiler alert: If you like MILFs, there are three bonus sexy clips included. If you get off watching hot older conservatives get angry, nothing makes me cum more than watching Larry Kudlow flail his arms around while ranting, "Impound! Impound! Impound!"
FYI Ezra Klein fantasies are welcome.
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1 minute ago, stevenkesslar said:
Even if I assume Kamala will become the nominee and win, her prospects of making legislative deals look pretty grim - for exactly the reasons you state. There's no reason to believe the MAGA faithful will let up and tolerate centrist deal making, even if Trump adds 2024 to the long list of MAGA losses in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023. The odds of her winning AND having a Democratic majority in both the House and Senate are slim.
The MAGA extremists don't need to govern, the conservative super majority on the Supreme Court is doing the legislating for them. Lifetime appointed legislature. It's the MAGA dream world, no elections necessary. Government for them is for theatrics not for governing.
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Sometimes the whining from Trump is so hypocritical that all you can do is laugh at the defeated former President.
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1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:
Opinion: Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer could make a winning ticket for Democrats
Great piece arguing for a Harris/Whitmer ticket. The author ticks off all my reasons for thinking it makes sense. In one word: "Michigan." In a sentence:
I've been reading lots of articles, mostly by fact-free cultists but also from some Democrats, saying Harris is a shitty debater.
They must not have watched Harris on debate night deftly explaining away Biden's own incoherence.
Granted, in 2020 Mike Pence got the sympathy vote since a fly landed on his head. 😉 Nevertheless three polls says Harris won that debate. A Morning Consult poll said she won 51/40. A CNN poll said she won 59/38.
538 asked a bunch of questions, and found that Kamala's approval rating among viewers of the debate in 2020 increased from 45 % before the debate to 51 % after. Her disapproval rating went from 40 % before to 41 % after. Asked whose performance was "very good or somewhat good", 69 % said Harris's performance met that standard and 60 % said Pence's performance did. Asked how well they did outlining their policies, 62 % said Kamala did "very good or somewhat good" and 44 % said Pence did the same. More relevant to 2024, only 33 % said Trump's performance was "very good or somewhat good" in the first 2020 Presidential debate. So much for Kamala being an easy debate target for Trump.
Presidential Historian: Dropping Biden Won't Help Democrats
That's Lichtman yet again in a brand new WSJ piece. Obviously lots of serious journalists recognize his track record and are asking his opinion. That headline gets it right. If you buy his Keys, dropping Biden can not do anything to help Democrats. But they can do it in a way that also won't hurt Democrats. Lichtman says again that Biden resigning so that Harris can run as incumbent and be selected without a divisive intraparty brawl keeps the same incumbency key and party contest key safe for Democrats.
Ezra Klein had a piece in the New York Times today praising Jim Clyburn's idea of a so-called "mini-primary" if Biden drops out. I found that interesting, and clever on Clyburn's part. In my view of the world, Clyburn single-handedly choreographed the election of Biden in 2020 by bringing him back from the dead in South Carolina. He also pushed Biden to choose Kamala as his Veep. He is now making it clear that if Biden is not the nominee, he's with Kamala. I think Pelosi and Clyburn are the wise ones in the room. If Biden is pushed out, they will likely be among the top Democrats delivering the message in private. And they will choreograph something that looks competitive to chose his replacement, but is mainly designed to keep the party unified behind Harris and against Trump.
If Biden quits and Harris runs as the Presidential candidate. What happens to Gavin Newsom? Same issue as Trump/Rubio, both Newsom and Harris are from the same state which would cancel California's electoral college votes. In 2028 does he campaign against a sitting President or wait until 2032 when he's 64. I've noticed he's been a super fan of Biden's, and I'm thinking there's an element of self-interest there.
If it's Harris, I'm thinking Harris/Shapiro, representing a "rust belt" state.
And unrelated to anything, Ezra Klein, such tasty looking lips
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France isn't used to coalition/minority governments as is Germany, Italy, The Netherlands and well most countries in Europe, and even Canada for that matter. It will be interesting who is eventually chosen by Macron to be the Prime Minister. But, thankfully, for now, the extremists, with their roots in fascist parties, had their expectations grounded. The neo-fascists are still the third largest grouping in the French parliament. Hopefully the center and left will find a way to work together over the next two years.
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18 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:
I know I am broken record about Allan Lichtman. But this is where he gets really interesting.
So he'd say charisma, or any personal quality of the candidate, is one of 13 keys. But legislative wins counts as a key, and the economy counts as two keys. More generally, his argument is that Administrations win because of how well they governed, not how they campaign. And in 2024, he says, Biden is poised to win unless lots of other things go wrong (like mass social unrest, a big military failure, as well as other keys).
Biden is arguing pay attention to what I did in 3.5 years, not how I spoke for 90 minutes while I was sick.
I wasn't saying that competence over the last four years isn't important. (Biden may have accomplished more in four years than Obama did in eight. Although Biden's agenda has faced an extremist super majority on the Supreme Court legislating from the bench.) I am saying that being able to article your successes through a shit storm of lies is essential. So far, Biden is a better administrator than he has been a campaigner.
The next four months needs a campaigner not an administrator. Biden was elected in a wave of anti-Trump euphoria. The majority of Americans breathing a sigh of relief that the chaos was over. Biden was the agent of reason.
There's been four years of constant chaos making and obstruction by the MAGA extremists and there are doubts about Biden's abilities to be the agent of reason that we need.
SHOULD TRUMP BE REPLACED? ONE MAJOR NEWSPAPER THINKS SO.
in Politics
Posted
Imagine anyone within this GOP trying to confront Trump about anything.