Riobard

Six degrees of separation is an idea inclined to have a connection angle.

**Spoiler** Some time later, not very far away, the best hole was not yet taken by storm. Yet it was nice and would eventually happen, full circle.

Haha ... this being a free site the joke meant a bargain to me.

We can’t know for sure. It may be that Benalla was too vanilla.

São Paulo’s New Year celebrations on Paulista are officially cancelled. A sign of what to anticipate. The decision contrasts with the current federal health Minister’s assertion that within 2 months the disease will have softened to a common respiratory syndrome.

Many countries in Europe have already recently surpassed or are trending towards the incidence /prevalence threshold that had been set by EU a few weeks ago, matching or exceeding rates for some non-EU countries that had been delegated to red zone status. It certainly makes sense to steer away from the compass of ever-changing epidemiological metrics and draw on point-of-travel clinical indicators superior to temperature screening. A false negative testing rate of no greater than 6% among Americans is equivalent to the risk threshold set for exclusion a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, a false negative rate of 20% is generally considered to be the norm. If I were on whatever “council” I’d be pushing for a four-pronged set of criteria based on both host and visitor case prevalence, as well as adding test sensitivity to the algorithm, and factor in a transmission reproduction metric based on the assumption visitors by and large are more likely to circulate publicly.

Please clarify that this means opening up to red zone tourists. All that the news releases in English are saying is that tests will be available at the airport and cannot be enforced due to legalities surrounding personal health info. There are already many entry exemptions for foreign nationals from restricted countries such as for essential purposes or transit-through up to 24 hours. Could this mean they are the target for testing? None of the official French websites have altered their allowable countries list predicated on the ‘ PCR-negative “passports” ‘ model. Moreover, the quarantine requirements seem also to have not been revised. I hope this has not been misinterpreted, that it is simply a matter of the various ministries getting aligned and up to speed, and that it is truly a promising step for travel to France.

It looks like Phase 3 of AstraZeneca vaccine trial, temporally the leader of the pack, is about to be launched in various locations globally, with a few thousand doses in Brazil, but six months must pass for efficacy and broad safety assessment prior to clearance for general consumption, obviously likely past 2021 Carnaval dates. Then Brazil would begin to manufacture a large batch of its own supply to supplement a smaller supply available worldwide, pending approval. Best case scenario is that the vaccination target of 100 million doses would likely not commence until next summer. I think the tentative plan is an initial 30 million followed by 70 million. What is unclear to me is whether recipients must first be assessed for natural immunity (or exposure, since durable immunity is in question) given that it is conceivable that up to 5% or more of the population has already contracted the virus.

Hahahaha ... Shirley you are Jonesin’ over both the book title and the metaphor of what my lickin’ is like.

Hahaha, you can obviously see past subtlety ... the things you can do with a vintage Calvados. I wonder if it was apple or pear, extending the previous orchard peach motif. It reminds me of the Brazilian stud this past March who must douche with Gatorade. He tasted like an Oklahoma State Fair all-day pinwheel lollipop.

But leaving one’s bicycle bag outside with the locked up bicycle? Fou.

No I did not catch that wine bottle detail.

The sequel to CMBYN was published 8 months ago but I just read it now. Find Me. It is not in 1st person Elio narration. The 15-year and 20-year epilogues were woven in reasonably well but what seemed a little strange is that Aciman departed from the initial base time frames, ie, summer of love ‘83 (consistent with track song Lady Lady Lady in the film). Unless this was unintentional or missed by editors the only reasons I could think of were to somewhat reference modern mobile phone etiquette (as in one passage) or to bypass the height of the AIDS epidemic. The initial Italian summer was referenced as having been a few decades back from the latest historical time point in the new novel but would essentially have been in the 21st century as opposed to the New Wave era. My sense is that the book cannot be easily coaxed into a screenplay that would have sufficient coherence with its predecessor or the ages of the film actors playing the characters featured in both books.

Pardon me. Olimpo never did re-open. Belo Horizonte in fact rolled back the lifting of measures and reinstated essential services model.

Olimpo in BHz is already open with similar conditions described. I’m not looking up any more. Perhaps a thread covering all the places in all the relevant cities is preferred by some.

I’m assuming tomcal began yet a new related topic with the intention of sharing opening notices, but that commentary about risk remain within previous threads. But I gather it is OK to add basic info, like other venues ... Lagoa in São Paulo, etc

The presence of antibodies is at a percentage in the Southeast not much greater compared to the infection case tally in Rio de Janeiro state. That doesn’t add up. It would be my first question posed to the investigators.

However, while 3.8% antibody-positive nationally, big differences regionally: North 8.0, Northeast 5.1, Southeast 1.1, Central West 0.9, South 0.4 Also, 90% of those tested reported having had at least one signature symptom at some point prior. Though May/June testing is within their flu season I wonder if there was a self-selection bias, wherein those who had been unwell were more likely to enter the antibody assessment cohort, having been missed earlier in antigen testing that would have indicated infection. This might affect the true exposure incidence because I thought there has been much speculation about asymptomatic cases loading into true incidence, yielding more than was found in the Brazil research.

Antibody study results recently released suggest a true SARS-CoV-2 incidence to date that is 5-6 times higher than reported figures. This would also suggest an alteration in fatality from about 6% to between 1% and 1.5%.

I had wondered where the ‘sour’ might fit in to the drinking game wheel of fortune. Classic fizzy shots spritzed on the rocks.

Yes, can clarify. I meant that something as innocuous as fellow tourist presence from same country could be calculated on minimum ‘N of 1’ basis of probability, assuming tourism data available, but it and countless other variables unrelated to disease would not be at all front of mind. In contrast, there are sufficient pandemic data to guide calculations of exposure for any number of people in any gathering. You took the CoV probability further in relation to our favourite venues, based on behavioural patterns that would inflate risk in comparison to airplane, gym, church, etc. And you are correct ... the transmission reproduction number would increase within that microcosm even if at the baseline date of reopening the case rate equaled the general population prevalence. After a time, even the exclusively voyeuristic at higher exposure risk than elsewhere. Add to that the expediency of transactions for economic survival and the greater cohabitation levels among age groups. Petri dish. You get it or you don’t impacts you get it or you don’t.

I think @Solooking mentioned the immunity theme as well.

99.86% of the horses world-wide remain stalled in the barn, for now. Sure, there may be equitable case rates comparing Brazil with USA, the epidemiological mirroring figures seeming to justify reciprocal or even unilateral transplantation. As well, folks from ‘downcurve’ places may pose less contagion risk. However, incoming visitors are among the least likely to follow local protocol because they are not cloistered in isolated monastery retreats. They simply add to the segment of the population that defies protective compliance or that cannot accommodate their country’s recommendations for mitigating spread. A foreign national tourist from a place with less disease prevalence is as bad as the non-adherent Brazilian that stimulates case incidence, wilfully or by default. Importing more of those is not a strategy to be found in the infection control handbook. Better to send hay there than make hay there.

The airlines in Latin America seem to be going Humpty Dumpty one by one, implications for flights in context of bankruptcy, rendering the prospect of reliable in-country air travel unstable even if you can get to a hub. And Aeromexico now in bankruptcy ... I am not sure if bankruptcy = absolutely grounded for any of these carriers, but that workaround option for entering/leaving Brazil from North America may close. Bus travel arrangements for shorter distance, or just-in-time booking for longer domestic hauls once there, may be realistic if one is determined to be in Brazil.

I think this media article breaks down and critiques fairly well the incipient research on natural (viz exposure) immunity viability and durability mentioned by @Latbear4blk here or in another thread. Sobering. https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/asymptomatic-covid-19-1.5629172