Riobard

São Paulo is likely to impose this week a brand new Phase, Purple, stricter than the current Red, rather than dialling back to Phase Orange. The country’s rolling average case fatality has bumped up about 50% over the past few weeks, also 50% higher than any previous pandemic peak there, accelerating astronomically per capita over the past few days. They cannot build field hospitals with cots fast enough and many infected are dying while waiting for urgent care. These measures suggest many cases will be housed to await death while acute care intervention systems simply collapse. Typically, whatever the rolling CoV prevalence, new recoveries keep pace with new case incidence as the trajectory of new cases increases gradually. Over the past few days, however, the average ratio is 1-to-1.5 ... that metric value is extremely disturbing, as it suggests about 50% more resources needed, stat, to maintain the previous average mortality rate.

As life is fraught with thwarted best laid plans, my province has done an about face, deviated from the country, and decided to imminently vaccinate my age group in my city Montreal that has the highest COVID incidence rate, prioritizing by case and mortality prevalence rather than equalizing across regions and age hierarchy. I have to give the decision-makers credit for having the balls to use common sense, since folks older than me in low-impact areas are naturally all up in arms about it. The country mice forget that city mice generate most of the resources budget. As I had expected that my place in the queue would be months from now, I entered a vaccination trial that ends February 2022, having received the second of two injections early Feb. At this point, I think I will commit to at least the halfway point this August so that the research will have 6 months of my immunity data. If I am to endure freedom restrictions due to a lack of formal inoculation documentation, I cannot imagine sticking it out beyond that. I doubt very many in the study cohort would. Make no mistake, the pharm companies set up to profit the most are strongly lobbying for vaccination passports rather than a broader and more flexible CoV status certification. With vaccination options gaining steam, there are hordes of vaccine research intentions that will likely be left in the dust. I wonder if the product I received, shipped up from Durham NC, will even make it to efficacy finality analysis and to market. In the meantime, maybe somebody needier than me, and in the developing world, will receive my missed official doses of whatever Quebec would have offered me this month. Who knows? Maybe later this summer I would benefit from a more refined vaccine after all. [I add that this is a real possibility, for those disappointed about a slow rollout currently. Vaxx virgins will likely trump booster recipients.] Other than that, my mood is tickety-boo. I have in the past often gone six months laying low without travel and “play”. This next time block could be a piece of cake.

Apologies, one vid got in twice and I cannot remove it. It was not there when I last read the post. Has anybody else noticed how challenging it is to edit a post once you have attached files?! Anyway, of the two examples, one is 10 seconds (duplicated), the other 15 seconds.

FullSizeRender.mov Anybody tried this new freaky still photo animator? Its brain seems to arbitrarily make movement decisions based on some type of judgement coding. For example, I tried it on two dated photos taken in the same sitting at the time. In one of them the app repeatedly blinks the eyes, keeping the eyeball relatively stationary as if the subject’s view is fixed on one point; in the other it has the eyes gaze around with minimal blinking. I edited them in iMovies and for some reason it picked up some soundtrack snippets, not intended. (sorry, ignore the audio) FullSizeRender.mov FullSizeRender.mov

Erm, here’s a traffic report, Piers ... the weather is already inclement.

Gay is progressive but not progressive for me ... when the attending yanked me from the birth canal I slapped his ass and never looked back at the vag.

Chile has an impressively ramped up COVID vaccination rollout ... FullSizeRender.mov

SNIP: “... breath-on-the-mirror check ...” Do you assess whether the flies could be zombies too?

On the toilet early this morning and for 3 hours last evening for a colonoscopy at noon today, not at Bumrungrad but I am def a runny bum grad.

Imma break my curfew any day now if it keeps up ... go ahead and cuff me ;>P FullSizeRender.mov

I think it would be royally fitting if the next Mehganarry offspring, apparently a girl, were to be named Nerissa Katherine Alice Windsor after ER’s maternal 1st cousins and Philip’s once institutionalized mother.

Just a wild guess but, based on family gatherings in The Crown, Anne seems to come across as the more blunt and unfiltered. Since her children did not receive royal titles, she may have mentioned skin colour in an offhand manner if discussing title privileges with her nephew. It is perhaps somewhat ironic that this headline theme occurs in the context of Bridgerton’s prominence.

I prefer an even number ... a 6-pack of lagers with 6-packs of loggers ;>P

... especially procrastinating getting laid!

My ‘gay life’ consists of trade. At this point, I think the phased order of renewal this late Summer and Fall will be Montreal’s Stock and Campus; Barcelona’s Thermas and Zürich’s Paragonya; and lastly Brazil because I think COVID will be a shit show there much longer.

Hôpital Saint-Eloi (is that where the soup I am slurping today is made?) seems to be still recruiting for the Janssen (J&J) vaccine efficacy study but the protocol is blinded for one to two years and you may get placebo. It’s a two-dose regimen to try to improve on the one-dose format currently approved in some places.

Bien sur. Still, if you attend a series of ten 10-person events, chances are you will encounter minimally one infected person. I would not risk it without CoV immunity. The risk differential relative to Paris is far less than Toronto and Montreal compared to, respectively, northern Ontario and Quebec. Alpes-Maritimes seems to be the most fucked up in France right now.

Interesting, Ft Lauderdale and Miami still pose a similar or higher exposure risk level than Paris (France, not TX). Relaxation of measures seems to be a combination of greater risk tolerance, descending new case incidence, and vaccine optimism supporting the tradeoff between economy/freedom and additional preventable deaths. Florida’s CoV average rolling mortality is currently about 50% higher than France’s, in spite of much higher proportional vaccination. The costs of Spring Break Madness, and perhaps a population age pyramid with proportionally more older folks. One saving grace aspect is a current R = .92 metric. The images depict the probability of at least one contagious CoV carrier within any random group of 50 persons, rolling case incidence 5 times the official reported tallies. But the similarities hold for various group numbers and irrespective of adjusting the case count.

It may be partly the UK variant dominating in France (up to 50% cases) earlier than in Canada? Epidemiologists here fear its current presence will take greater hold and become the main strain of community transmission. However, it’s latent appearance is now up against the vaccination uptake trajectory. If Québecois want a freedom summer, need to keep mitigation tight for a few more months.

Yes, the rank and file here finally settled into a more overall compliant attitude and the 20:00h curfew likely helped attenuate transmission. Now the high end of the R confidence interval is trending towards .90 ... the graph below ends mid-February with a further decline in case reproduction since then. Nonessential stores were opened for March break (just ending) and shopping replaced what would ordinarily be sun travel. Without vaccination set up to offset an uptick of cases usually caused by partial reopening, I doubt the stores would have been allowed to operate. I bought a new Ninja kitchen blender whoo-hoo!

Quebec’s case incidence peaked in May and January, now having dropped by 75% this year so far. Vaccination is beginning to accelerate after a sputtering start, currently 4 products and likely a 5th soon. I think Montreal venues will be open this summer, especially with patio drinking and dining a seasonal norm. The strip clubs in The Village will probably be open. They were last summer, months before vaccine hopefuls were even a glimmer. With bilateral CoV case suppression, the US border restrictions will likely be relaxed or removed. Canada is also leaning against vaccine-specific certification or even broader CoV status documentation, unless new ‘escape’ variants transcend the present state of neutralizing antibodies and our hand is forced.

No visitors. There are even restrictions on family members being in the same room unless it is parent/minor or married couple. For full quarantine there are likely appeal-based exemptions for couples not legally married. Apparently a non-spousal caregiver of a senior must be separated, but allowed an adjoining room. Quarantine, after all, is separation. Do astronauts get to fuck immediately upon re-entry? Your only hope for a rendezvous might be in the bushes at a resort-type hotel. Do you play golf? Are you or can you pretend to be a poor stroke so that you need to go into the foliage to retrieve golf balls? Watch out for the hornets; they do not honour Hornet tricks. But, on another note, I would think that being required to be medically cleared by your primary care practitioner within 72 hours of departure, apart from CoV specifics, would be a pain in the ass. You show a hard copy on arrival but you would have already survived the flight. Odd. I wonder if this requirement will be removed when vaxx certificates replace the current protocol.

A state court has dialled back Mayor Paes’ decree. What a tug’o’war there; elected leaders, courts, public health entities, clinical scientists. The mitigation plan was already little more than a one-week drip-feed for coronavirus containment, unlikely to have much impact. This lockdown may have a bit of a latch-hook on the door but the windows are flung open. Restaurants, including brothels with food services as I understand it, over the next few days will be allowed to open until 20:00; I think admission is shut at 19:00 and alcohol allowed until 17:00 ... I expect there is total messaging confusion about how to comply when there can be little agreement about anything.

Interestingly, the Recent Updates when logged in is not reflecting the fora that are accessible when logged in. However, the Posts section does display recent posts in those fora. Not a major problem ... just pointing it out. On BT, both Recent Updates and Posts included the latest post alerts, some alignment in terms of giving the reader a heads up about updated contributions.