Riobard

I note that four of its border countries have higher novel coronavirus incidence rates than Brazil. Bolivia’s is similar. Uruguay is off the charts but they are quickly ramping up vaccination. They had previously allocated its limited supply to border towns near Rio Grande do Sul when the transmission vector direction was from Brazil into northern Uruguay. A few cargo ship crew (foreign nationals) arriving in Brazil recently tested positive for the Delta variant. These strains are going to be flown in anyway. ——- Rob, I guess salvaging your recent missed travel is back in the cards. ;>)

The details are still sketchy and the duration is unclear, but foreign nationals will be restricted from entry. An attempt at a ‘circuit breaker’ against the arrival of people bringing in novel coronavirus variants of concern. Being Brazil, this decision could be predictably unpredictable and swing back and forth in the courts &c. I suppose it is conceivable that some organization of exceptions will follow, the wobbly vaccine and or other immunity signal certification progressively emerging and such.

Members here have speculated on the future of Lagoa, Point, 117, etc. Online competition. Altered social engagement contexts. The population and age pyramid trends point to an overall increasing growth of 15% from 2010-2030. Moreover a marked increase in the so called ‘silver economy’ demographic. That is, significantly increasing numbers of middle-age-and-up queer men outgrowing nightclub options, if that was even their thing, and needing a more conventional, beyond virtual, outlet on weekend evenings. Many are single, with few socializing opportunities within their orientation. All this likely transcending the ravages of COVID. Savvy business in Brazil is mindful of the bulging proportional population share of older folks. I think there will be constancy in demand for a range of entertainment venue outings. I am counting on it. FullSizeRender.mov

Bad luck, to be sure. At least it is out of the way, so to speak. I was briefly sick with classic COVID symptoms 5 weeks ago, fever etc, almost felt let down when repeated testing two days apart was negative. Moderna’s mRNA-1273 —> 90-94% protection, and the difference related to prevention of asymptomatic vs symptomatic is negligible. A sobering reminder that breakthrough cases happen. Maybe if you are able to access facilities, lab(s) doing genetic sequencing, you can assess for variants of interest in your sample. Or at least search for what they are in the location where you likely acquired infection. If Quintana Roo, could be any strain developing globally. The incidence spike is likely the mixology of folks flocking there cuz the doors have long been flung open to tourists, now pay the piper. Hope you didn’t get terribly dinged on cancellation charges.

It was meant to come off as humour for those among us familiar with the environment. I am no closer, compared to six months ago, as to guessing where my first voyage of the decade will take me: Spain, Switzerland, Dominican Republic, or Brazil.

It launches this year. Originally ground transport, so is planning some mix-and-match routes. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-bus-company-itapemirim-braves-long-odds-launch-airline-2021-05-17/

I consulted about July ... my interpretation is that I’m still going to be jerkin’ it solo.

Wow, did 11 months fly or what! Thermas has just re-opened. I believe the only stipulation is mask-wearing, but we all know by now what that actually means in practice. The current probability of minimally 1 active novel coronavirus infection among 50 persons openly circulating there is roughly 10-20%. Open a window.

While that deficit exists, it has nothing to do uniquely or specifically with the advantages of backward contact tracing. The limitations you refer to apply to both forward and backward tracing methods. If you do not conduct backward contact tracing you totally lose out on identifying the source of new infections. The majority of people that are infected with novel coronavirus did not acquire it in a nefarious context. If you jump on backward contact tracing early in an incidence wave, prior to rendering it impossible due to new incidence volume, you can bend the curve more effectively. Montreal has the same admonishments regarding mitigation rules. Backward tracing has made a relative difference in offsetting a third wave.

Here it is: can enter Panama under these conditions, along with YF vaxx, if stranded in international transit waiting for a delayed connection. Note that the CoV test must be within 48 hours of arrival, in contrast to Canada’s requirement: within 72 hours of Brazil departure. Overall, a risky option for the inconvenience of possible quarantine order, but if you are a trooper willing to hang out airside, especially if not YF vaxxed ... Gonna wait until flights resume Canada/Brazil one day.

Correct. Can transit thru Panama, use the drop down menu. Flight connections may be wonky and make camping out in international transit area intolerable. Need Yellow Fever vaxx certification to leave the area. Not sure what is required to leave the transit area as far as COVID restrictions ... check by changing that part of the menu to entry, not transit. https://www.copaair.com/en/web/ca/travel-requirements

2 of 2

Now is the time for aggressive backward contact tracing in Thailand if not already being done ... 1 of 2

Google is your friend.

... for those interested in investigating routes, price competitiveness, etc.

Yeah I found that clinic years ago when I had an eye infection, or something like a sty(sp?). Good service. I still get a birthday greeting by email.

‘Feeling sick’ is pretty generic. My sense is that I over-interpreted, overlooking that it was simply stated as a reason for skipping 117 Tues, also that in your case it must be serious, like maybe full-blown COVID, to keep a man down. Of course anyone can say anything here and there is no fact-checking that it was not along the lines of ‘oh, not this morning noon or night, dear, I have a headache’. LOL

Depending on the symptoms, you may have had a SARS-CoV exposure. All depends on whether you are susceptible (a virgin) or have some immunity based on recovering from it previously or having had vaccination against it. That some symptom-alleviating meds worked does not mean it was not novel coronavirus. You can have short-term illness whether it is a new CoV infection, a reinfection based on the 100+ strains in Brazil, or have been inoculated and have mild vaccine breakthrough. Or if you are vaccinated I believe your immune response quickly kicking in following an exposure can feel like illness as your body’s immune memory is woken up.

... while the blocked banned one gets backed up.

What venue? There are two. Encontru’s has these features. I assume you mean PdeE doesn’t.

Wearing ... goddam ottokorrekt gremmlinz.

For all the trash talk about China’s vaccines, WHO with its stringent review process just signed off on Sinopharm’s BBIBP-CorV, the sixth product thus far to receive the stamp of approval, though recommending for under age 60 for now. The decision about Sinovac’s CoronaVac comes next week. The media’s call on it is a toss-up. I think it will be greenlit. The recent follow-up effectiveness trials all indicate meeting the 50% threshold or better. Brazilians and Chileans have been keen to queue up for it and there have been no indications of serious adverse events. Sadly, President Bolsonaro continues to badmouth China and much damage control is required. The Chinese cannot seem to take in stride that he is essentially insane. —-

Au contraire ... it’s common knowledge that the vaccines are assessed using the correct stepped-up phase methodology that depends on a study subsample getting sick and with higher numbers getting the illness. If the group subjects not receiving the vaccine are spared infection the efficacy is zero-to-inadequate infection risk reduction. No vaccine approved. The effectiveness of first-line vaccines already reduces the volunteerism willingness of research subjects to stay with the defined protocol. Huge drop-outs of placebo controls. Add the disincentive of freedom limitations for research subjects when a majority of the population essentially lobbies for unique privilege that was facilitated by those volunteers but is not accessible to them, why not just go out and squeeze a deuce into your closest essential worker’s corn flakes?

You can have vaccine passports required for most activities or you can sustain ongoing vaccine research & development utilizing the robust trial modalities that have yielded the inoculation options in the first place ... rescue vaccine interventions for which the notion of substantial immunity has sprearheaded the basis for formal recipient certification that privileges such activities. You cannot have both. The one paradoxically undermines the other. Short-term gratification is your agenda, or preservation of ‘gold standard’ research endeavours that may be continually required for a non-abating pathogen. Take your pick. Or use more common sense in determining alternatives prerequisite for actualizing privileged entry points into desired, renewed behaviour. It is more feasible to apply an overarching and more flexible range of validation for immunity or non-infectivity, all of which are preventive but not without their own unique flaws. The observer and subject-blind trial recipients of neither vaccine nor placebo will qualify for vaccine certification, and why would they volunteer, altruism grinding up against sacrifice of privilege? Surely the risk of non-intervention arm assignment is enough to have to endure. This is not Yellow Fever, the vaccination development and implementation strategy all laid out and stable. Without sufficiently longitudinal and solidly populated placebo-control randomized assignment research, the essential trial prospects that are left might include noninferiority SARS-CoV-2 vaccine comparison trials or challenge trials in which subjects are exposed to coronavirus infection following an experimental vaccine. The optimal structure for creating and testing vaccine candidates gets compromised. The essential foundations should be preserved.