DelRetiro

Maybe Trump will pull off a miracle & hold on in Michigan, but I doubt it. His lead is down to 102K, and the votes outstanding will heavily favor Biden. Trump's lead in Pennsylvania is much greater, 660K, but again the uncounted votes lean heavily in Biden's favor. Besides, Biden only has to win MI at this point since he took a slim lead in Wisconsin (not enough votes left for Trump to retake the lead in WI). Wow, what a rollercoaster. If Biden wins, which is looking awfully likely right now, then we Republicans & Trumpers (not one and the same) just have to pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and fight like hell in 2022.

Most of the states called so far are expected results: Trump wins W. Virginia, Indiana, and S. Carolina; Biden wins Vermont, Massachusetts, Virginia, and Illinois. The big news is that Trump has won Florida, the must-win state for him because he had no viable path to 270 without FL. Big sigh of relief in the Trump camp right now. Did Michael Bloomberg follow through on his vow to spend $100 million to flip FL to Biden? If so, that's money almost as well spent as his $1 billion+ to win 5 delegates from American Samoa. Thanks for apreading the wealth, Mikey! Speaking of money well spent, Amy McGrath lost her bid against Mitch McConnell, despite raising almost $90 million. Hopefully she can commiserate with Jaime Harrison & Beto.

Dixville Notch NH has voted, and the big day is finally here. I thought it would be interesting & fun to post thoughts, reactions, highs & lows as election results come in.

Trump has cut the Dem lead in FL to 94K. Remember that Hillary led by 96K going into election day yet still lost the state. Even better for Republicans, they have made a net gain of almost 200K registered voters in FL since 2016. Dems are hoping for a big "souls to the polls" push tomorrow, but since last Sunday's souls to the polls drive was a bust (GOP actually gained on the day that Dems hoped to jump ahead) and since many churches have gone virtual, tomorrow is unlikely to build the Dem advantage. Early numbers are also looking good in NC and AZ. Republicans have a slight lead in Maricopa County (Phoenix metro), which means they're almost sure to win AZ. NC early numbers look slightly better for Rs than 2016 when Trump took the state by 3.8% points. If Trump wins the Sunbelt 3, then he needs to win only 1 of the Rust Belt 4 (PA, MI, WI & MN) to get to 270. Numbers are looking good for Trump in MI and even better in WI. After Biden's monumental gaffe about ending the oil industry, rural PA will turn out even stronger for Trump. Biden is doing 10 points worse than Hillary (and Trump in turn doing 9 points better than his 2016 showing) in Philadelphia. MN is a total tossup. In sum, Trump is almost sure to take 1 of the Rust Belt 4 (at least) whereas Biden's chances of going 4 for 4 are lotteryesque. I've read on Twitter rumors that after seeing the early voting results, Biden is angry, upset, and panicked. Rumors on Twitter should always be taken with a boulder-sized grain of salt, but in this case, it sounds like they might just be true.

In a delicious turn of irony, Amy Coney Barrett was confirmed as a Justice of the Supreme Court on Hillary Clinton's birthday.

With just 9 days before the election, the Biden campaign called a lid today at 11:27am. With the polls closing fast & the early voting tallies looking good for the opponent, what presidential candidate takes the rest of the day off so close to the big day?? Barely There Biden has declined so much physically & mentally that he needs to move into assisted living, not 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

When the GOP had the Senate majority, they rejected the Dem president's SC nominee during an election year. When a SC vacancy opened up again during an election year, the GOP Senate confirmed the GOP president's nominee. Them's the rules. The Republicans played by the rules, and at some point the Dems have to accept that, although they never will. Dems wanna pack the court? Gotta take back the Senate first, and thanks to Cunningham's sexting, a Dem-majority Senate is looking less & less likely. Also, GOP candidates are starting to look competitive in seats that earlier looked lost (MI, AZ). I read at the beginning of ACB's nomination process that McConnell was aiming for Oct 26 as the final confirmation date, and whaddya know, it looks like they're on schedule.

I thought I read somewhere that Toobin was multitasking: work Zoom call while video-sexing in another stream. He thought his work Zoom call was off, but much to his and his coworkers' horror, the camera was still on. OOPS! First, what kind of guy video-sexes while on a work call? Even if you're just supposed to be listening, so not cool. Second, how does he recover from this professionally? I have to think he'll get fired from the New Yorker (it's certainly a fire-able offense). Even if he keeps his job, it'll take a loooooong time to put this behind him. Come on, how is any viewer going to avoid cracking up whenever they see lubin' Toobin on TV??

Although states do not release vote totals by candidate, they do provide stats on votes by party registration. So far, it's looking really bad for Democrats FL, NC, and AZ. Thanks to big GOP gains in FL & NC (in AZ Dems had a small gain) and better than expected numbers for GOP-registered voters, the Dems are way below the numbers they need to hit to offset the expected red wave on election day. If Trump wins FL, NC & AZ, then he needs just one of the four Rust Belt states (PA, MI, WI, MN) to win 270. The odds that Biden will thread the needle & win all four are slim, especially since the early MI numbers are looking bad for Ds. Hey, it ain't over 'til it's over for Dems, but it's getting dark awfully early for the Biden campaign.

As stated before, professional victims of a feather flock together.

You lost all credibility once you called me out for a so-called "micro-aggression." You and SolaceSoul ... obviously, professional victims of a feather flock together. For those of you who do not belong to the Cult of Victimhood, a "micro-aggression" is an offense that is allegedly racist/misogynist/homophobic/Islamophobic/pick-your-oppression, yet is undetectable to all reasonable & same human beings because in the absence of anything even remotely offensive, cultists of victimhood flat-out make sh*t up in order to perpetuate their self-indulgent delusions of victimhood. For the record, I donated money (first time in my life) and volunteered 8-10 hours a week (also first time ever) in order to prevent Donald Trump from becoming the GOP nominee and from being elected President. Leftists claim to be so intolerant of stereotyping, yet jump at every opportunity to stereotype whoever says something they don't like. Hypocrisy, thy name is leftist. And for my so-called obsession with getting the last word, I'll bet my bottom dollar that either you or Professional Victim Numero Uno, er, I mean, SolaceSoul has the last word on this topic. TomCal, it sounds like you and I have the same approach. Who knows, I might go to Brazil and love it so much that I keep going back, but my guess is that Rio will be a bucket-list trip, something to be done once in a lifetime. If that's the case, learning ~10-12 words in Portuguese, plus my Spanish & English, plus a translation device should allow me to get by OK.

I can't keep more than one second language in my head at a time. You seem to be arguing here that my inability to learn multiple second languages somehow destroys my credibility. Um, no, it's just how my mind works. I'm not embarrassed by it. In fact, quite the opposite, I'm very proud of my level in Spanish. You, on the other hand, should be extremely embarrassed for being a professional victim. Oddly enough, however, you seem to be rather proud of it.

Professional victims are so easily offended.

Wow, I didn't realize you were such a victim.

I studied in Spain many years ago, and my Spanish was quite fluent, or so I thought. Then I realized that Spaniards have one way of speaking with foreigners and a very different way of speaking with other Spaniards. After many years away from Spain, my Spanish had gotten quite rusty until I discovered you can watch Spanish TV shows over the Internet, So that's my new hobby, Spanish television. I no longer watch any English-language TV, except the occasional sports broadcast. My oral comprehension has improved by leaps and bounds. In fact, it's quite a bit better than it was even at the end of my studies in Spain. My speaking ability, which had atrophied to almost nothing, is back to being pretty good. Despite the remarkable progress I've made in the last three years, it seems the more Spanish I learn, the more I realize that there is so much more left for me to learn. That said, because (re)learning Spanish takes up so much focus and mental energy, I can't be bothered learning another language. I used DuoLingo for a while to recover my old high school French but found that for every bit of French I learned, I forgot that same amount of Spanish. I guess there's only room in my head for one second language. And since, like I said, I have soooooooo much left to learn of Spanish, I won't be studying any other languages in the future. Plus, I find that aside from Spanish & French, my ability to pronounce other languages is really horrible. I do, however, plan to make a trip to Brazil one of these days. Rio seems beautiful and mild (warm but not hot) during the infernal summer we have in the desert Southwest, plus there is the not insubstantial allure of the sauna boys. I plan on learning the most basic of Portuguese (hello, goodbye, please, thank you, sorry, and a few other words max), relying on Bing Translate, and then hoping & praying that my English & Spanish will get me by. I am not linguistically lazy. I spend at least 10 hours a week watching Spanish TV or reading Spanish. It's quite a serious hobby. Since I visit Spain every year, Spanish will be my sole focus. I'm pretty sure that when I do go to Brazil, my half-dozen-word vocabulary, Bing Translate (or whatever device), a friendly smile, and a respectful attitude will be enough to avoid being considered a "colonialist dickhead." Maybe you'll still consider me a colonialist dickhead, however, because frankly it sounds like you enjoy sneering at Americans.