tassojunior

It passed Democratic states very fast for sure but the polls show in deeply Republican states it is in fact very popular with the people, even Republicans. Just as marijuana legalization has passed lately in very Republican states, it's just a matter of forcing it to referendums in a couple Republican states or having an on-record vote in legislatures. Example: passage by Florida in a referendum would probably put it over the 270 needed with a couple small states. Passage by referendum by almost any 2 decent-sized states will put it over the top. Like marijuana legalization, it's just a matter of common sense and fairness to most ordinary people. We need more referendums. https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/state-status ""The bill will take effect when enacted by states possessing an additional 74 electoral votes. The National Popular Vote bill has now passed a total of 41 state legislative chambers in 24 states. It has also passed at least one legislative chamber in 9 states possessing 88 electoral votes (AR, AZ, ME, MI, MN, NC, NV, OK, VA). It has been unanimously approved at the committee level in 2 states possessing 27 more electoral votes (GA, MO). The National Popular Vote bill has been introduced in various years in all 50 states."" ""nearly 75 percent of all Pennsylvanians support the idea of a national popular vote to elect the president"". ""A survey of 800 South Carolina voters conducted on January 17–19, 2011 showed 72% overall support for the idea that the President of the United States should be the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states."" ""A survey of 800 Florida voters conducted on January 9-10, 2009 showed 78% overall support for a national popular vote for President. ""

I'm not getting into pollyannaish mode about Georgia or South Carolina lol. (I'll save that mode for the Popular Vote Compact). If they go blue it'll be because of a national landslide not because they swung the vote. I know Georgia and Florida very well and both states are very divided and it's set in stone. A 1% shift now is huge. Trump won FL by 1%. Obama won by 2% (a 2008 national landslide) and .%8 in 2012. And we remember Bush v. Gore. That's why something is wrong in the polls there. Georgia doesn't budge either because of race mostly. I don't trust Trafalgar because they're too R but Minnesota makes little sense not to be a swing state after the riots there. I don't know MN much and have been told it's odd because it's a huge city with nothing else there while Wisconsin is exurb after exurb. IDK. Anyway, if the margin is within 5% , I'm pretty sure only Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan will matter much and anyone who wins all three wins, and 95% certain anyone who wins 2 of 3 wins.

The Hill/CNBC has narrowed the swing states that will decide the election down to 6: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina. I disagree about AZ and NC being swing states since they only poll even with a national 6% +D margin. That's not swing. So it's just the 4. I'd hate to see the advertising deluge in those 4 states the next two months. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/511656-biden-leads-trump-in-5-of-6-battlegrounds-poll

""33 COVID-19 patients aged 22 or younger"" hmmm. that's children and adults. Very young children are usually very different from adults virus-wise and with Covid seem pretty immune. I never thought of them as little spreaders.

@stevenkesslar The National Popular Vote Compact goes into immediate effect with passage by states having 270 electoral votes. In just over a year it has been passed by states with almost 200 electoral votes. Anther state passes it almost monthly. 270 minus 200 = it will become effective with passage by states having 70 electoral votes. There are states with that many votes considering it right now. Yes, Republicans in South Carolina don't want it voted on and that's the tactic in every state. Not to vote against it but to deny it a vote. There are referendums (like Colorado) where it has been passed and in Ohio and Pennsylvania it could pass by referendum without the legislatures. The stage is actually coming where referendums may be used to get the final states if needed. But it is amazingly close to passage. (as opposed to an amendment which would require 2/3 of each house and 2/3's of state legislatures; a virtual impossibility). And why are 3rd parties always stuck in people's minds? Are we that conditioned to believe everything has to be in parties? Which party did Caesar or Aristotle belong to? People really are sick of political parties (check their unfavorables) and want independents to have a chance and for us to get away from political parties. Does it elect Republicans in California as feared? They don't even make the runoffs. Non-partisan elections are the trend now for good reason. And a government with two parties running it is a duopoly, not remotely a democracy. When people are asked if the popular vote winner should win they say yes by large margins. It's just a matter of getting a vote in a few more states.

The National Popular Vote Compact (to elect the popular vote winner), which I lobby for a lot, is close to going into effect (with the Supreme Court's recent blessing in the faithless elector case). It's all been done grassroots by the people against the party interests in various states. Ordinary people approve of it overwhelmingly while both parties would rather people not hear about it because it's so popular. And this is where the political bullshit of political parties hits the fan. Both parties depend on the Electoral College to stay relevant. Most people can't stand Republicans or Democrats but that's the only real choice in November, largely because of the Electoral College. Most Republicans will make lame excuses for the EC when, in fact, states can choose their presidential electors any way they want ("Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct") they don't even have to be elected.. While Democratic party hacks will say "abolish the electoral college through Constitutional amendment," knowing that is near impossible. Political bullshit of the first order. You can't depend on political parties to reform the duopoly they are co-owners of.

And that's why I'm more interested in longer-term trends than the daily headline (which is usually just today's reaffirmation of the narrative). And optics and fluff seem to be all-important while substance on issues is almost meaningless. It leads to getting the best bullshitter but changes nothing (or even makes it worse.... Remember, Vote Johnson, Goldwater will take us into a full war in Vietnam!) With Trump's fall will come Nikki Haley, much further to the right than Trump but attractive and oozing personality. We better get national consensus on issues (or at least more democracy). The trend of Biden dropping nationally seems to have stopped with today's (9/3) RCP polls. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/ . He had to get out to stop the rapid decline. Unfortunately, he seems to still be sliding down in his "home" of PA. Biden almost has to win PA. Personally I think he's closer to the 8% lead there one poll has him at, not the tie or 3% others do. But I also don't think Biden is out in front in Wisconsin and Minnesota (as much as polls say at least). And NC is looking worse for Dems, including the Senate seat. Labor Day, this monday, is the traditional start of the election campaign. Odd since with polarization, early voting, and mail ballots, most votes will be decided soon after that day. But we'll have 2 more months of this vitriol to endure from the two sides of the government. Other countries limit campaigns to 2 weeks (and their's usually mean more than ours do).

@stevenkesslar The way I always put that axiom is " When you have to choose one of two evils, choose the one you haven't tried before". There's a lot of good old American pragmatism in that even if it's not very hopeful. I think a lot of people were hopeful for a life-long liberal Democrat who had opposed the genocidal war in Iraq, was gay-friendly, and promised universal healthcare being a better risk than Hillary. I doubt if many will still give Trump the benefit of the doubt for changing in a 2nd term. (But then you have to ask whether the Dems haven't been tried before either). To me it was pretty clear (and I've seen a few polls) that the reason Biden got a personal bump after this DNC speech but no increase in poll numbers was that his choice of Kamala had increased their % in California, etc. but had equally decreased their % in the swing states, especially the midwest. Even before the final speech, the poll numbers in the midwest had fallen 2% and after Kenosha (not the RNC), midwest poll numbers plunged another 2%. Biden's average lead in his home of Pennsylvania is down to 4% from 8% before Kamala and Kenosha. The other midwest states may be worse. According to RCP, we're exactly where we were at this point in 2016, with the Democratic ticket having a lead of 3.3% in the battleground states on Sept. 2. And the betting markets have the race at even money for the first time. Doesn't get much more deja vuey than that.

and speaking of independents...NYT today: ""That is largely because of his difficulties among independents. Although his favorability among Democrats appears to have climbed in the wake of the conventions — now roughly matching Mr. Trump’s overwhelmingly positive ratings among Republican voters — 53 percent of likely independent voters expressed a negative view of Mr. Biden, according to the Quinnipiac survey. Just 39 percent saw him positively."" Election Updates: Biden Still Leads in Post-Convention Polls https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/09/02/us/trump-vs-biden

Advice from the frigid North: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-canada-sex/wear-a-mask-while-having-sex-canadas-top-doctor-suggests-idUSKBN25T2Y9

2 neutral polls in a week now show Biden's margin in his home state of PA has sunk from 12% to 3%. Biden doesn't win without PA, IMO. And yet his national margin stays high leading me to think the Dems % in California, NY, MA, etc has shot up skewing the Electoral College odds. Hillary ended up with a 2% "win". And yet Silver is out today with what may be generous odds: and here's the average of polls today and then Silver's analysis of them today: and a lot of this is based on Florida polls I am very doubtful about:

Going back to Clinton is really going back to old "independents". Yes, back then, and yes now with very old Republicans (like the Lincoln Project NeoCons), independents were often wavering Republicans.That is simply not true with millennial independents. As obnoxious as Trump is they won't jump on a bandwagon for a ticket that includes Biden who was the biggest cheerleader for the genocide, horrible sadistic genocide of a million innocent people in Iraq, who was on the team that is responsible for 100,000 dead by drones in Yemen and Somalia (ie: war criminals), who assassinated a 16-yr old American American citizen, who has made a career of grafting public office into family wealth, Harris who is the most AIPAC-controlled candidate in memory (equal with Trump), who's husband is the voice of the corporate media and Silicon Valley with all it's surveillance, censorship, and mind control, and made her reputation closing down Backpage and co-authoring SESTA. I'm not making these arguments, I'm simply observing that these type independents aren't coming onboard without major concessions or recognition by the winning establishment wing of the Democratic party. The normal way would have been a VP of Bernie or a lieutenant. Absent that an endorsement of Medicare 4 All (supported by 75% of the US and a majority of Republicans), or withdrawal from the Middle East, or Universal Basic Income, or something important. Instead there was a huge Fuck You to that part of the Democratic voting coalition, Get Out of Our Party... From Kyle, to Crystal, to Tulsi to Bianna to Dore all the "progressive" Bernie team was harassed during the DNC on Twitter and they made clear they knew it was coming from the party. 2016 all over again. "Get out and stay away from our party, we'll win with Republicans." A horrible strategy. You can't depend on Trump staying as personally obnoxious an imbecile that masses of people vote just to turn him out. You have to have a positive message to attract independent young people who really have no use for either party. And you have to be a gracious "winner" and reach out to the "other side" of a party's voters for a general. "We're not named Trump" alone might win. But it's not a sure thing.

You're right. Wall Street has had a dismal record predicting elections. Just today I saw another Wall Street piece that says you need to look to the states controlled by Republicans in the legislatures and governors mansions to see there is a "hidden" Republican base that carries over into presidential politics. A reverse coattails, especially in the midwest and Florida. IDK. As opposed to the snake oil salesmen on Wall Street the Vegas guys do have $ on the line. Even then I check with them more for trends than exact numbers. Like 538 they had Hillary an 80% favorite on election night 2016. But as far as independents, you're wrong. In the old days independents were thought of as "Republican lite". They usually went 2/3 GOP then. But with anti-war sentiment, anti-corruption, pro-free speech, abortion rights, gay rights, etc taking over the young, "independent" really means independent of party label voting strictly on issues. I have a number of young millennials I deal with a lot and they refuse to register as Democrats in DC even though they realize that means they have almost no say in elections in a 90% Democratic city. They don't care. Not acknowledging either of the corrupt dying political parties is that important to them. There's a 100% devotion to what makes sense, what works, what is right, what is moral. (there is a tinge of libertarianism , but that's ok because it's a value of personal, not corporate, liberties.) Bernie, Tulsi, Yang, and Amash were the leaders of the young independents this year. The Democratic party trying to win with Republican votes instead of young independents is a very poor strategy IMO.

This is what staged "Campaign Rallies" look like now and what people see. They used to put a few heads in front of the podium and a few in back and there used to be 100 camera people.This actually was the case in much of 2016 and most of the primaries too (before covid). But sometimes the teleprompter scrolls too damn fast:

Finally AI is providing help in studying Corvid. It's a killer for a reason: https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

And now this: JPMorgan Says Investors Should Prepare for Rising Odds of Trump Win https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/jpmorgan-says-prepare-for-rising-chance-trump-wins-second-term Biden had to come out.

oops, Emerson just threw a damper on. 2% Biden lead (ie losing EC badly). https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/august-2020-presidential-race-tightens-after-party-conventions Even with that they note Trump is still declining in over-65 voters. and Vegas just tanked:

Besides the Pinellas county shocker the other shocker for Biden is a new active-duty military poll. While Trump beat Hillary 2 to 1, and Obama had a 36 percent favorable rating and a 52 percent unfavorable rating in a January 2017 Military Times poll, Biden leads Trump by a good margin. Military is a big voting block in NC and FL (as well as GA and VA). An interesting paragraph is how this younger segment of the population views themselves by "party": ""Another 13 percent said they plan to vote for a third-party candidate, and nearly 9 percent said they plan on skipping the election altogether. About 40 percent of troops surveyed identified as Republican or Libertarian, 16 percent Democrats, and 44 percent independent or another party."" https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/08/31/as-trumps-popularity-slips-in-latest-military-times-poll-more-troops-say-theyll-vote-for-biden/

While I was getting my flu shot at Kaiser last week a nurse mentioned "they" were paying $700 to be in the stage III trials. hmmm. Unfortunately the vaccine is two shots a month apart but it seems very safe, very effective and may be better as a nasal spray eventually. (Let's hope it's more effective than the flu shot).The US government has 300 million doses paid for being made now and the EU has 500 million. https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/experimental-coronavirus-vaccine-safe-produces-immune-response https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/08/28/906797539/what-a-nasal-spray-vaccine-against-covid-19-might-do-even-better-than-a-shot https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200605/covid-19-vaccine-will-probably-require-two-doses

@stevenkesslar Saw this and knew you'd like. I spent half the summer in Pinellas County, FL, The flip county for Florida. The reason polls show Biden up in FL, Charlie Crist's FL 13 is in it, May be America's oldest age county. FL 13=old people. IDK as I saw zero Dem support and Trumpsters everywhere you look. They had the 2000-boat Trump flotilla. Maybe old people never come out? IF Pinellas really is +10 Biden, then Florida is blue and the election's over. Cue Biden to hit Social Security, Medicare and healthcare hard nationally. I'm dubious about Biden and Macomb County, MI or Pinellas but this is where he wins: (there's a similar old flip district in AZ). and don't miss this comment:

uncaptionable photo of the day I could have gone all election without seeing this. lol

@stevenkesslar you realize now many registered Democrats, especially in the south, vote Trump and how many registered Republicans vote Democratic. Reagan Democrats, Trump Democrats, and now genius Rahm wants to ride a wave of Biden Republicans. Political parties, like the Electoral College, are anachronisms. It's surprising how many states don't register by party anymore and how many that do have pluralities of independents now. Yes, if we had an economics-based party system, like most countries, the party vote would be maybe 80% Democratic. But we don't. We have a political division based on emotional issues memes and narratives. (Ironically perpetuated by the Democratic press). Maybe a woman wouldn't need an abortion if she could afford a child. Maybe gays wouldn't need to get married if they otherwise had health insurance. Maybe rural kids wouldn't want to go kill overseas if they had free college or jobs otherwise. In truth economics is often behind what we consider social issues.

I'd maybe help Bullock and Cunningham even though they'd be conservative. Bullock could have beaten Trump easy. No Hickenlooper fan. Kelly in AZ good shot. Ditto Maine. OTOH...how much money can anyone spend in Montana?? lol. I gave to the National Vote Compact and Black House insurgents after Bernie lost.

and Bingo. Here's the Guardian and Current Affairs saying almost exactly what I did above: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/28/donald-trump-2020-election-feels-like-2016 https://news.yahoo.com/biden-seemingly-didnt-convention-polling-141300982.html The ticket has sunk well below Clinton at this point in swing states and they're all that matter.