stevenkesslar

I mostly agree. First, this is something only political junkies care about. Most people are not following polls. At Thanksgiving last year we somehow got into a discussion about what website we scan first every morning. I answered "Politico." One of my relatives, who is a very smart professor who cares about politics, said, "Ugh!" That said, when Biden resigned I was the person she texted to find out what it meant. I said Harris will take his place, and it will be better. She does not follow polls. Most people don't want to ride the pollercoaster. Second, I think what most pollsters say consistently is that the trend does matter. So if this measures a trend where voters are generally improving their rating of how Harris would manage the economy, which is what seems to have happened gradually, that matters. Third, I think Harris has won already, simply because Lichtman has already predicted it. The most critical I can be of him is he was wrong in 2000, when it came down to a handful of votes in one state. So if it comes down to a handful of votes in one state, like Pennsylvania, all bets are off. I will repost this chart I have been mostly using for the stock market all year. The bullish stock market also seems to predict a Harris victory, as Politico just noted. This chart looks exactly like what the market looks like in a year when the incumbent party wins. In fact, the S & P has done even better than the average year when the incumbent party wins. If the incumbent party were going to lose, the S& P should be limping along right now. Like in an average year when the incumbent party loses, right now S & P returns should be negative. Not +20 %. So if I had to pick some tool to predict who will win, I would NOT pick polls. I'd pick Lichtman, and the stock market. But the trend does seem to be that Harris is looked on more favorably, and as a better manager of the economy, compared to when she jumped in the race. All of these are good signs for Kamala.

I thought this was interesting and encouraging for Harris supporters: Harris pushes economy as Trump’s advantage shrinks That article links to another Politico article that states this: That later statement is in line with what David Plouffe says, based on supposedly better insider private polls. Their efforts have paid off, in that the gap on the economy has narrowed. That said, the overwhelming takeaway from almost every poll I have seen is that the economy and immigration hurt Harris, and abortion and concerns about democracy help her. There's been a lot of debate about whether Harris is screwing up by talking too much about "Trump unhinged" versus talking about the economy. While it is both/and rather than either/or, I fall in the camp that thinks the following. If the election is about the economy, Trump wins. If the election is about Trump, Trump loses. Right now, today, the election is about the unhinged stuff Trump is saying. The fact that he made such stupid unforced errors just as people who have been tuned out are tuning in reinforces just how unhinged he is. I'd rather have undecided voters thinking about what Trump meant when he said something about somebody shooting Liz Cheney in the face. That said, it pleased me that a recent poll asked voters what specific policy ideas would make you more likely to support a candidate. In that poll, Harris's expanded child tax credits were #2 on the list of most popular ideas that would make voters more likely to vote for a candidate. With #1 being Trump's idea of drilling more oil and gas and making America more energy independent. Some of her specific ideas seem to be getting through to the working class people, including Trump voters, those child tax credits helped when inflation was raging. Clintonista strategist Doug Sosnik said earlier this year, when Biden was the apparent nominee, that if this election is about the economy, Trump probably wins. He cited the huge percentage of voters (most of whom are Trump supporters) who say we're on the wrong track. He said if it is about whether people want more Trump crazy, Trump loses. When asked by Bill Kristol which was more likely, Sosnik guessed the election would be about whether people want four more years of crazy. I think it's turned out Sosnik was right. If so, Harris wins.

He and Putin are wedded for life. There's two views of the Putin/Trump thing, both of which could be true, The more conspiratorial version is that Trump is an asset developed decades ago. It makes sense that Putin, or Russian intelligence more broadly, would always be looking for opportunities to cultivate loyalties with rich and powerful Americans. Especially ones who might need a supportive and kind Russian hand to help them out of ...................... bankruptcy. All the help and business deals with Russians seem to have always been kept within the boundaries of laws. Putin would of course want that, too. A disgraced felon in jail is a bit less helpful. The Fiona Hill theory is less conspiratorial. At core, it's a theory about rich guys who just want to be oligarchs and authoritarians. And will do whatever they have to in order to achieve their goals. I can see why good MAGA folk, who are perfectly happy following authoritarian leaders and aren't particularly concerned about democratic standards or Western military alliances or Ukraine, would see this as a plus. Why not play nice with authoritarians and prevent World War 3? Seeing as how playing nice with Hitler definitely prevented World War 2. 🤔 It could be some of both. Whatever loyalties were being built with Putin's merry band of oligarchs and allies decades ago probably had nothing to do with a plan to make Trump President one day. But whether there was a plan in Putin's mind or not, those Russian investments sure paid off. Now Putin and Trump can just be partners in crimes. Literally. Of course, the whole idea is that if they do it, it's not a crime. That's been taken care of in Russia long ago, at least. The US? Check back with me next week. So, yeah, Trump will be the gift that keeps giving to Putin as long as he is alive.

This will be interesting to watch when Trump loses. There are no doubt a lot of complicated things involved in the rotten Trump empire. But what this business reporter says makes sense. Trump should sell part of his shares to address his huge debt problems. And the minute he does that he undermines faith in DJT. Which is already built on a house of cards, and funded in the past by Putin cronies. What's a lying fascist wannabe felon gonna do? When he loses, DJT will be in big trouble. Which makes me think he would want to sell at the front end of it, which will just fuel more selling. Then again, Putin ain't going nowhere. There has to be a way he can bail out Trump again, you'd think.

Harris campaign: Late-deciding voters are ‘breaking by double digits’ for the VP Trump doubles down on violent rhetoric in final stretch Wonder if these two headlines could possibly be related?

What may be "fake" is the polls. Meaning Trump overperformed his poll numbers in 2016 and 2020 - the latter of which was impacted by COVID and Democrats having a weak or non-existent ground game. Then in 2022 - including in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan - all these Democrats outperformed their polls. Democratic Governors won supposedly close races by big margins. I would not rely on how the polls will go this time. Exactly. Both favor Democrats right now. Those were the two things that filled up Morning Joe today. 1) Why do we want a President who threatens to kill his political opponents? 2) Turnout of women is strong, and looks good for Harris. It's early vote, and past voting patterns have definitely changed post-COVID. So everybody smart (e.g. Karl Rove) is saying we don't know for sure. But I think what is becoming clearer by the day is a wall of women is voting in droves. And men are not measuring up. https://x.com/Cernovich/status/1852038704468234747 Again, nobody knows for sure what this means. But these are facts, not right wing bullshit. They are scared. And smart people who know what it takes to win have been saying for months that Trump's ground game is a delusional mess. I'll keep repeating this, because the growing evidence suggests my instinct is right. Much of my life experience could be summarized this way: if you want to win, organize women. While Trump has been flapping his lips about dogs and cats and why women need him to protect them, Harris has been organizing hard. Trump has organized women against him. Harris has organized women for her. We'll know soon. But at this point the wave of women can't be changed. And it looks like it will be powerful.

Aw! Poor thing! The sexist raping rights removing lying loser is gonna lose! Aw! No red wave. No blue wave. A wave of women is forming to take the sexist raping rights removing lying loser down. They don't like him, or want him. Who knew? Aw! Poor things! The male fascism loving say dumb shit "fuck the bitch" testosterone vote is just so impotent! Real men don't vote! They point their guns at Liz Cheney and shoot. Disloyal bitch! Who ever would have guessed their ground game sucked? Just dumb men with lots of testicles saying offensive shit all the time! How could a dumb fuck fascist wannabe like Trump even see this coming? https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1851717440998453751

Trump on Liz Cheney: ‘Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her’ Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Let's see how moral worm Mike Johnson tries to explain this one away. Trump was really talking about law and order, and how the cops he sicked his fascist mob on love him, I'm sure.

Or maybe they are. I'm guessing that investors - they might be better be called traders - are manipulating the hell out of DJT. After plummeting during the Summer and September as Harris rose, it probably had to have a rebound, anyway. So this had to be related to optimism that Trump would win the Presidency as he "won" October. But I'm betting shrewd traders, not necessarily big or rich traders, tended to buy at the bottom. And the MAGA true believers saw the stock rising and bought in. As the stock plummets again, the true believers are likely the ones who bought at the top, and will take the biggest falls. And speaking of stocks: The stock market’s surprising bet on who will win the presidency I talk about Lichtman a lot, since his prediction system has been nearly perfect. But this chart has been my one of cheat sheets for the stock market all year. I have been following it closely: What's interesting and unique about that chart is that it's the only one I've ever seen that distinguishes between years when the incumbent party wins, and years when it does not. I found that somewhere earlier this year. And by the time I found it, like maybe around March, the market had already gone up a lot. So all year long I've been taking that as an indicator that leaned toward Biden and then Harris winning. In other words, if this were a typical year when the incumbent party was going to lose, the market would have performed poorly for the first part of the year. It did not. Beyond that, that chart has been very accurate in predicting what happened during the year - if you assume Democrats, the incumbent party - will win. The most important thing it suggested is that 2024 was going to be a good stock market year. Which it has been As legendary trader Jim Roppel has been saying, "MAX LONG". That in and of itself is NOT an indictment of the Biden/Harris economy. That chart says if this is an average year when the Democrats (incumbent party) win we'll have a market dip in April and May. We had a dip in April, which typically would be the biggest dip of a good year, and was not that bad. It shows a dip in July. We had a big dip, even bigger than the Spring dip. Other than those small variations, 2024 has performed almost precisely like one would expect in a year the incumbent party - Democrats - win. I have taken this to indicate two things all year. I want to be long in the stock market, which I have been. And Biden, or now Harris, will win. Which I think she will. There ain't nothing wrong with this picture for a Democrat who wants to make money. Does the recent shit show of DJT - either the stock or the racist felon - indicate bad things to come for MAGA true believers? I dunno. But I would not say the picture looks particularly good for MAGA. Whether we are talking about the stock, or the unhinged felon.

Aspiring fascists want to know. What is the special quality real leaders like Trump and Putin have? Here's my best guesses: 1. Tolerance for genocide, as long as it makes you and your wannabe oligarch pals rich. 2. Tolerance for oligarchy, as long as it makes you rich. 3. A certain zest for stealing elections. 4. A certain zest for breaking the bones of cops who stand in the way of stealing an election. 5. Just being a felon, plain and simple. It's a tough choice, really. Anybody know?

Truth Social’s stock price is soaring. It’s not just Trump supporters buying in. Note that article is from March. But I doubt much has changed. I think the easy question is who is NOT buying it: It's a perfect metaphor for the election, really. Sure, maybe it is crazy and stupid. But as long as it might make you a little money, so what?

The key word there is "base". His base is not 48 % of the electorate. That's the number many people, like Plouffe, argue is his ceiling. That includes a lot of people who will NOT eat shit for Trump. But they do feel the economy has been shit under Biden. I think that does matter. If Harris wins, the good play is to be graceful. Especially to people who were on the edge of the knife and tilted Trump's way because they just feel the last four years sucked. If Trump wins, I know for sure my anger goes deeper. We're at rage. I don't think these feelings are unique to me. Funny timing reading your post. Just got off the phone with a friend I have not spoken with in a long time. He is a Democrat who lives in SF and deeply dislikes the homelessness and open air drug dealing. At one point a while back he did say that if Trump promised to clean up the homelessness, and had what sounded like a real plan, he would consider voting for Trump. I assumed that was just venting, and he did not mean it. So his brief take on the election was like yours and mine. Horror and shock that Trump could even be a serious candidate. So you have some big chunk of America that is at Defcon 1 who feels like this is a fucking nightmare. And it is war. I think this favors Harris. One truism I have heard a lot this year is that people really dislike choosing between Biden and Trump. So whichever party manages to give people some other choice will win. That favors Harris. Another truism I have heard a lot this year is that whoever this election is about will lose. Right now the election is about Trump, and four more years of crazy, I think. Even all this stuff about how the polls are wrong and Trump will of course win, maybe by a landslide, makes it about Trump. I think that actually favors Harris. You're for sure right that I am trying to convince myself Harris will win. Stated differently, I am NOT a Republican. Right now it really does seem to boil down to two words that start with T: testicles, and testosterone. Trump definitely has the testicle vote. I mean real men. Not women, not pussies, not Gays, not transgender freaks. Real men who just know we are going to CRUSH that idiot bitch's ass. She's toast. We will CRUSH the idiot bitch. She is an idiot bitch loser, and we will fucking CRUSH her. Get it? That's cocky, pun intended. But other than the word "bitch", all that was said at the racism rally at MSG. Some guy yelled out she's an idiot, and Trump turned it into a riff. They may as well all have stood up and grabbed their balls. More fun than raising your hand and chanting "Heil Hitler." I have convinced myself that it will be sweet when these cocky guys lose. It's the equivalent of bragging about your cock size, and how big your loads are. But it turns out you are actually impotent. Poor things. Fuck em. They deserve it. The reality is that nobody knows. I think we can stop with Karl Rove and David Axelrod. They won four elections in a row. They do have testicles, I imagine. But they are proud of their brains. And they are saying they do not have a fucking clue. Rove, and other data freaks, are saying anyone reaching conclusions based on higher Republican vote by mail is probably wrong. Because it will take several cycles of Republicans embracing vote by mail to know what the new normal is. So the guys with the big balls are just talking shit. It will be deeply emotionally satisfying when their testicles get them absolutely nowhere. Dems see signs for optimism in gender gap in early vote Across battlegrounds, there is a 10-point gender gap in early voting so far, according to a POLITICO analysis. Lichtman has the prediction system I have the most faith in, given his track record. But on this one I will go with Michael Moore. He's got testicles, too. But on this issue I would rather view him as the crazy aunt in the attic who somehow is always right. In 2016 he was ranting crazy shit about how pissed off people in Michigan would vote for Trump. In 2022 he pissed all over the idea of the red wave. Now his line is, "Do you actually know any women? Have you talked to them about how they feel?" Again, if Rove and Axelrod don't know, nobody knows. Jen O'Malley Dillon, who is testicle-free, is wisely saying this is gonna be awful close folks. If you give the tiniest shit, better go vote. Happily, I did yesterday. Usually I mail it in. But this time I took it to City Hall just to make sure. What sucks for me is I had to vote for Raul Ruiz, my Democratic incumbent House member who will win in a landslide. If I lived a mile away I could have voted for Will Rollins. I did send him as much money as I could. It has been clear for months that Trump's poll numbers depend on a lot of people who usually don't vote, or have never voted. Many of whom are men. So he is pushing the testicle vote hard. But what if it turns out real men don't vote? That article says there is no evidence yet that real men who talk shit and cum hard and often are actually turning out to vote for Trump in droves. I have read several times over the years that Obama's win in 2012 was absolutely grounded in epic Black voting. Obama won Independents in 2008 and lost them in 2012. So something had to offset losses among Whites and Independents. What I did not know is that Team Romney went into Election Day thinking they had it in the bag. The theory of the case, stated recently by people like Steve Schmidt who would know, was that in 2012 Obama could not possibly exceed the Black vote he got in 2008. But he did. And that election was not particularly close. There is a lot of talk about the Black vote right now, and how that doesn't look good for Harris. But I think what it boils down to in 2024 is that Harris needs women to win. She needs a wave of women. And if she gets that, she wins. And it certainly looks like it is possible. I've said mildly patronizing shit for years to some of the best women organizers around, who are friends, about how organizing women is different than organizing men. Especially if they have kids, and it involves their kids. Women would slit their wrists if they needed to protect their children. They will certainly go vote. So if Harris needs suburban women to go vote, that very fact in itself favors her. This is theory. But it squares with reality. In 2022 the poll average said Whitmer would win by 5 points. The last Trafalgar poll, which favors Republicans, said her race was tied. Whitmer won by 10.5 %. It was a wall of women. Same pattern in Wisconsin. Evers was supposed to lose, narrowly. He won by 3.5 %. Same pattern in Pennsylvania. Shapiro was supposed to win by 10. He won by 15. Maybe what matters more in 2024 is all this testicle vote that is just yearning to have Trump in power. Or maybe real men are all talk, and they don't vote. They didn't perform in 2022. Poor things. Impotent! That was right after inflation peaked at 10 %. I think it is just a fact that in Fall 2022 the average American, especially the average working class American, had lost ground in the last few years due to inflation. Now they have gained at least a little ground since 2020, thanks to low inflation and rising wages and low unemployment. The misery index (inflation + unemployment) was 7.8 % when Biden took over. It is now 6.5 %. The economy is better now. I am trying to convince myself Harris will win. And I think it is working. I really do think Harris will win. And it will be because of a wave of women. Too soon to know. But it seems to be happening right now.

That is definitely the core of it. But I would argue that is willful. At least with many Trump voters. They are choosing to be willfully ignorant. There is, of course, an analogy with Hitler again. The good German. You can connect the good German of 1940 directly to what Fiona Hill says about America slipping into oligarchy today. In both the Third Reich and America today there is a LOT of willful ignorance. To be fair, we ALL live in silos way more than we did 20 or 40 years ago. That is partly because the algorithms encourage it. It's profitable for Facebook to incite us and lead us around like sheep. But there's a huge degree of difference between the MAGA faithful, and everyone else. One way it shows up is polls on the economy. There has never been a point where more than 50 % of Democrats thought the economy has been good from 2017 to today. That suggests that Democrats are probably judging based on facts. Trump's economy catered to the rich with tax cuts, Biden's was inflationary. Those are facts. Meanwhile, almost all Republicans -over 4 in 5 - thought the Trump economy was good. And now even more believe the Biden/Harris economy is bad - about 9 in 10. Stock market? THE WORST EVER. Unemployment? THE WORST EVER. Human misery? UNBEARABLE. It is a bit of a mystery why Harris is not hammering on the misery index, which is actually significantly lower today than when Trump left office. It worked for Reagan. But I think the main reason why is that people don't feel it. Including many Blacks and Latinos who are Democrats. And it is based on facts. Inflation was not imaginary. But to understand why a misery index that is lower than when Trump was POTUS is actually the most miserable economy ever, it only takes a dash of Goebbels: if you tell a lie long enough, it becomes the truth. That's not really stupidity. It's willful acceptance of ignorance and lies. The election BIE LIE is the best example. That is like willful mass voluntary hypnosis. To the point where a violent attack on democracy targeted at police officers is now a day of love by patriots who adore cops, and are just fighting against Marxist cop haters. That's not stupidity. That is willful ignorance. In order to believe the BIG LIE you have to disbelieve every other fact. With election denial you really have to disbelieve ALL facts. Because there's been zero factual proof of fraud. Despite Trump's endless attempts to build an even slightly factual house of cards. I don't think Trump is good at fooling these people. Many of them have demonstrated that they are fine with minority rule, fine with stealing elections, fine with beating the shit out of cops and calling it patriotism, fine with calling the minorities they need votes from garbage, fine with suggesting Nancy Pelosi should be arrested and her husband deserved to almost die. This is willful. This is really the only point I break with Halperin on. And it is not a small point. He does not see this as fundamentally wrong. Or fundamentally different than any other politician telling any other lie. As I said in a different thread, when he went after John Meacham for politely suggesting there is something really wrong here, Halperin betrayed his deep cynicism. This is why I think Trump will lose. The undecided voters who are left, or who have broken one way and voted, are not being fooled. And they are not leaning into willful ignorance about either Trump or Harris. That is what makes them undecided. Trump did Harris a favor by showing the America he wants to lead at his racist rally. Sean Spicer says the Trump base loved it. Of course they did. Even a smart guy like him is willfully ignorant about the fact that the racist rally, like Jan.6th, is a perfect symbol for why they will lose. Willful ignorance is bliss. Until you lose.

I'll disagree on that. It's been clear forever that Trump is a narcissistic raping lying felon. Aka, unprincipled. This is why 52 % of Americans view him unfavorably, and why he will lose. He does not fool most people. And technically he doesn't actually fool anyone. Because the people who he fools want to be fooled. I think there are two kinds of unprincipled people who don' care that Trump is unprincipled. One group, in their own eyes, just isn't all that concerned about principles. They care about high prices, or too many immigrants. So it's not like they would prefer an unprincipled leader. We know this group is huge. And if Harris peels enough of them off, she wins. The other group is The True And Faithful. And some of them seem deeply unprincipled. These are the people, including very rich business people, who fundamentally would explain away Hitler - and actually did back in the day. Trump may admire Hitler, but he is no Hitler. So he makes it easy to be unprincipled. What could go wrong? Oh, right! Sean Spicer comes to mind. I'm thinking of him mostly because you said he was a bridge too far in a post recently. It's funny listening to him. Because he is convinced Trump will win - and big. So he is getting cocky. Halperin drilled him on the Racism Rally at MSG and Spicer almost joyously blew it off. As in: some other guy said it, we did the standard disavowal, who cares? It was an awesome rally. Trump's gonna kiss ass. Roll, baby, roll! That was the jist of it. I stopped watching. Poor Sean. I'll feel sorry for him when Trump loses. It's all deeply cynical and deeply unprincipled. It would be no different than being at a Hitler rally and saying "Jews are garbage." And then Sean says, "So what? As long as we win?" And, no, @EmmetK, I am not anti-Semitic, or racist. I am repeating the bile that comes out of the mouths of your racist felon, or his supporters.

I'm just glad we haven't run out of Randy

Huh? What? I feel like I just said in several posts that I think Harris is going to win. But that was in the dumb fuck thread where our resident Team Genocide and Team Hitler, @Moses and @EmmetK,were going off on betting odds that say Hillary is certain to win in 2016 Donald Trump is favored to win in 2024. If I had to give a one word explanation for why Harris will win, it would be "Lichtman." If I had to give a sentence, this is more an explanation of Lichtman: "American voters won't trade a team that did a good enough job on fundamentals (The Keys) for an authoritarian felon they fired once already." What I am conceding in this thread is that there are a lot of MAGA folks who could be happily lulled into oligarchy. Even though it doesn't fix their problems or address their interests. I just don't believe this is what Americans want. We'll see. But I'm donating to Harris and voting for Harris, and I think she will win. What I am also conceding is that Ruy Teixeira is right. Progressive Democrats brought some of this on ourselves with too much woke bullshit - as centrist voters see it. We certainly did not bring COVID, or COVIDflation, on ourselves. I don't think Trump would have helped tens of millions of working class families with child tax credits, which is one of Harris's most popular policy ideas. But I agree with Teixeira that the woke moment has passed. Precisely because everyone is seeing and living the backlash on issues like immigration. We're going to have to adapt. The closeness of this election and the backlash has given us a great reason to do that.

That's one of Hill's main points. There's no question how the pie is divided. The King gets more of the pie. This a good deal for oligarchs and autocrats. Genocide World is the best example. But, as you note, lots of other countries are run this way now, to one degree or another. It's not good for small businesses. It's not good for capitalism, if you define that as wild competition and little guys and gals that want to scrap it out and move up the ladder. It's good for people like Trump, Genocide Man, and Musk, who want to dominate. And have as much power and money as they can. There's been a good argument for a long time that the "liberal" tech establishment is building a new feudalism, with Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos as the new lords and masters. I question how "liberal" these tech titans really are. But the conservatives who argue this have a point. The way Bezos weaseled out of offending Trump said something about whose interests he, and WaPo, are looking out for now. All that said, nobody who went to college really wants to be part of Mark Zuckerberg's metaverse. I see him as an annoyance more than a threat. It makes sense that if we have a new oligarchy, and America is the place that makes authoritarians and fascists great again, it will come from the right. And it won't come from middle class or upper middle class college educated people who are better off than ever. It will come from the pissed off working class. Who does have a lot to be pissed off about. Even though there is absolutely no evidence that oligarchy and authoritarian rule did get them a bigger piece of the pie in the past - under Trump, Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, or anyone. They won't get a bigger piece of the pie under Trump. The oligarchs will get tax cuts, and lots of them. We'll be stuck with the deficit, and the bill.

I'll add a few more examples that seem to go to the heart of it. There was a great long interview in 2016 on the ACA with a Trump supporter. It was so good it seemed like it had to be an actor. Even though it was probably real. Nice elderly guy, plain spoken, in what looked like a working class home. He said something like this: I've heard all this scare talk about how Trump is gonna take my Obamacare away. And I have to say I really like my Obamacare. And how I can't be denied insurance anymore for pre-existing conditions. When you think about it, it makes no sense that Trump would try to take my Obamacare away. It would just piss me off. And why would he piss me off? So really he'd only try to kill Obamacare if he replaced it with something better. The argument made sense. Until it didn't. In fact, Trump supposedly did label Republican efforts to kill Obamacare as "cruel". But he was still more than willing to be cruel to his own supporters. His approval ratings were lower during that ACA fight than at any other time during his failed Presidency. So it's not like people didn't notice. But it faded, and changed. The even better example is that Trump was fired in Nov. 2020 because the economy was a complete mess. But now a lot of people want to rehire Trump because of the economy. He never got 50 % approval as POTUS. But now more than 50 % of people say they approved of his Presidency, at least in a few polls. Even though he still has less than 50 % of people who approve of him right now. WTF? ‘Everything Is Subservient to the Big Guy’: Fiona Hill on Trump and America’s Emerging Oligarchy The longtime Russia expert explains why Elon Musk, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are all talking to each other. Great new interview with Fiona Hill that touches on a lot of things. Including this, I think. I think these are indicators of how the US is already slipping into oligarchy. A lot of people just line up behind The Big Guy. So you have a Jew who is no fan of The Holocaust backing someone who praises Hitler and wishes he had loyal Nazi generals. People get quiet, turn inward, go along. I think there is a good argument that there are benefits of oligarchy for some. Let's take Genocide World. Before he was Genocide Man, Putin's authoritarianism looked better and worked better for the average Russian than Yeltsin's "democracy", if you can call it that. Now, is life really better for hundreds of thousands of Russians being sent off to slaughtered? I'm not persuaded. So maybe people like oligarchy. Or maybe they are just afraid. Maybe they know if they support Putin he has their back. Or maybe Genocide Man will shift, and send them off to slaughter. Either way, Hill nailed the point. It's not about you and me. It's about Putin. It's about Trump. It's about Musk. Hill is right. This is not good for consumers. Or citizens. Or country. We're about to find out whether Americans agree with her.

Two positive thoughts: Will Rollins, and TMF. I have been donating all Fall to five candidates: Harris, Brown, Tester, Rollins, and Mucarsel-Powell in Florida. I think I misjudged that she had the best chance of pulling off an upset. As I think @Pete1111 pointed out, Dan Osborne probably has the best chance to pull off an upset that could redeem a Tester loss. Rollins is on a roll. Politico just wrote a nice piece on him. Will Rollins was written off in 2022. Now, he could help deliver a Democratic majority. In the past few cycles I spread my donations thinner, including a number of SoCal House candidates. Most of whom represent seats that Democrats won in 2018, in a blue wave, but then lost in both 2020 and 2022. This year I just figured I would Go Gay on one toss up House race. He's got a very good chance of winning. TMF is a 3X exchange traded fund based on bond rates. It appears to be at the bottom of a five year bear market. As interest rates come down, it should do well. TLT is similar. But it's a safer bet with less risk and less reward, since it does not have the 3X oomph. If we have a recession, either should do well. If we do not have a recession, and instead the market soars, I still think rates will drift down. So either TMF or TLT will drift up. It's hard to see how they are a bad bet, either way, since both seem to be poised for the end of a bear market. I started dollar cost averaging into TMF at about $50 a few months ago. In September when 10 year rates fell to 3.6 % TMF got up to $64, and I was something like +10 % on paper. Now rates are back up to 4.3 %, and TMF cratered to $47. I actually just bought more of it today at $46. So I am about 10 % down on paper. But as Buffet says, when the price of hamburger goes down, buy more. My geeky stock loving nephew has a theory that TMF will set an even lower low than it has, meaning under $40, because we'll have this big blow off stock top soon. So all the money will flood, for a while, from bonds to stocks. Seems a bit too optimistic to me. But I think bonds makes sense, for sure. And TMF and TLT are cheap right now. But back to our fascist Hitler admiring loser, I am still with Alan Lichtman. Harris is going to win. We know for sure the polls and betting markets have no track record of success, with 2016 being the best example. By the way, even Real Clear Politics now says Harris is leading in Michigan again, by a fraction of a point. Same as Trump is leading in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. By a fraction of a point. So it is a toss up, as Rove and Axelrod both say. Not that they know anything about winning the Presidency, other than 16 consecutive years of winning. There's been a lot of talk about how Harris lost whatever edge she had in favorability ratings in newer polls. But 538 says she is viewed unfavorably by 48 %, compared to 52 % who see Trump unfavorably. Same old same old for Trump. It's possible that a lot of people who view Trump unfavorably, but do NOT view Harris unfavorably, will vote for Trump. And maybe it is a mistake for Harris and surrogates to keep saying "fascist". Beyond doubt, it is better when Trump's unhinged and ugly statements come out of his own mouth. Or those of his Nazi wannabe surrogates at his Hitler wannabe rally.

Again, tell me how genocide is a good thing? I think genocide is nasty. I think Genocide Man is nasty. I think Genocide World is a nasty place people flee. If Trump had the oligarchy he wants, and you have in Genocide World, you are probably right that people would not be able to say nasty things about Trump. Just like they will be killed if they sat nasty things about Genocide Man.

And we all don't trust you, and know like Hitler admirer Trump you constantly lie and make shit up. Same deal as when Gen. Kelly, who was Trump's own Chief of Staff, said Trump is a fascist. What does Trump do? Attack Kelly, and lie. Trump just lies, and lies, and lies. Felon, felon, felon. Which is why he will lose. You have learned your lessons well. You, too, are a liar and loser. Woo hoo! So here you are, lying your Hitler admirer admiring ass off and making shit up. I made no anti-Semitic rant, any more than Gen. Kelly said "I am a fascist, and fascism is good." Exactly the opposite. Let's dredge that up, though, since it also explains why racist felon Trump will lose. Seriously, why do you admire racist Hitler admirers? That was about a thread in which one of your conservative partners in hate and cruelty was defending The Birth Of A Nation. And arguing it's no big deal that it is the most racist film of all time. I said the racist tropes in The Birth Of A Nation are just as bad as the anti-Semitic tropes in The Wandering Jew, which is widely considered the most anti-Semitic film of all time. So, like racist lying felon Trump, you lie and defend yourself by attacking. You take what I said out of context and flip it around. Lie, lie, lie. Attack, attack, attack. By the way, wasn't Roy Cohn Jewish? Don't take this out of context. But when God sent us Gay hater and Trump trainer Roy Cohn, he was not sending us his best. 😉 But Trump, unlike me, actually admires Hitler. He said the Jew Killer did good things. He wants generals that are Nazis, obedient and loyal, like Hitler had. Why are you attacking me for attacking anti-Semitism, while you are praising Jew killer admirer Trump? Despicable racist lying felon Trump ain't got nothing on Goebbels, and he just proved it again. Puerto Rico is garbage. Latino men are raping thugs who just fuck and fuck and fuck and make babies and cum too much. It's gross, racist, vulgar, and insulting. Name a Republican with any morals whatsoever who is not attacking Trump for being a racist moral sewer. Even Mike Johnson, who backs Trump's violent anti-democratic rhetoric, ain't trying to explain away this racist bile. But your lying Jew killer admirer admiring ass will lie and attack me, and say I said Puerto Rico is garbage. When all I am doing is quoting the racist Trump invited to say racist shit at his Hitler-like thug rally. That is what Trump is. A despicable man, just like McConnell said. America does not deserve four more years of Trump's lies, crimes, racism, and hate.

LOL. Heavily favored: 54/46. Silver was right about 2016 for sure. Clinton won. It was Lichtman who was wrong in 2016, when he predicted Hitler admirer Trump would win. 😲 But at least we know Trump admires Puerto Ricans. What a disgusting mess of a human being the despicable felon is.

You come here to back Genocide Man, and explain genocide away. There's no debate I can win about how Genocide Man is scum: moral scum who is turning the Russian Federation into scum and rot. Thanks to his program for the mass annihilation of Russians. And the mass slaughter of innocent women and children in a county Genocide Man says he loves and cherishes. No debate to be had with you. Because you just defend genocide. And you do it consistently. And you are telling ME not to get nasty? And I obviously won the debate that these people betting on Trump are just as smart as all those people saying Hillary was a sure bet in 2016. So all you can do, like Trump, is try to change the subject. And hope no one cares, because they are like Hitler's sheep.

So all I will do here is restate a few of my greatest hits. But these are a few of the broad themes I have the most genuine curiosity and concern about in this election. Ruy Teixeira can be a real nag. I am sure there are real leftist progressives, all with impressive college pedigrees, that he genuinely despises. And I am sure they feel equally deep contempt for him. At some simple level, it does boil down to, "Enough with the woke bullshit. Just stop. Go away and crawl into your hole. Because you college assholes are just fucking up my Democratic majority." I think he is more right than wrong. It was supposed to be all those Latinos and Blacks and Asians the sealed the deal for a Democratic majority. Then it was supposed to be all these Millennials and Zoomers. But when you have Zoomer Latino men voting for Trump, that just fucks it up. And a lot of it the woke bullshit, as they perceive it. Trump just fuels their indignation. I think the best answer is that there is data. And Alan Lichtman has it. What's interesting to me is that there are so many things about this election that are unique. We've never had one nominee forced out after he won the nomination before. We've never had another who is a felon who tried to steal the last election. Add all the COVID + inflation stuff. Add our first ever European election, where a candidate had three months to run a campaign Lichtman has no room for any of that stuff. Since you are not a Halperin fan, it fits in here that Halperin views Lichtman as this guy with this rickety old system, rigid and old, data in data out. Halperin is the whip smart but cynical guy who knows everyone, and can explain it all to you. He clearly seems to think Trump will win. But Lichtman gets it right every time. Why? I'm not sure I know. But I love that "wall of lava" line some Never Trump Republican used. In context, the idea is that this has nothing to do with a racist joke at MSG, or what Bad Bunny thinks. In 2008 things were such a mess that John McCain was going to be taken out by that wall of lava, no matter how much a nice guy or patriot he was. In 2016 the wall of lava took out Clinton, no matter how much of an asshole Trump was. So Lichtman is basically saying at the end of the day the wall of lava is simply not big enough this year. Harris will win. Lichtman's actual geological model is earthquakes. But it's kind of like the idea of a red wave, actually. This is just not gonna be a tsunami year, Lichtman says. Let's hope he is right. Not to say that Bad Bunny or Bruce Springsteen shouldn't keep trying, though.