stevenkesslar

They are already paving the parking lot, sadly. Hundreds killed in Israeli airstrike on hospital, Hamas-run health ministry says If confirmed, the attack would be by far the deadliest Israeli airstrike in five wars fought since 2008. I'm guessing it was a terror attack from Iran, killing innocent Palestinians? Certainly it could not have been Israel, since they are always and only the victim. Since Israel wants the world to think of this as their 9/11, I think it is instructive to reflect on some of what happened after the US 9/11. How US-Funded Abuses Led to Failure in Afghanistan As one of the 88 % of Americans who supported an invasion of Afghanistan, I get it. What the fuck else were we supposed to do? But this is the diagnosis for Israel, too. The point is that this is not the least worst solution. It is more like the worst solution. And it is what Israel is setting itself up for. We can not possibly know what horrors will flow out of Pandora's box. But anybody wise at least knows this is opening Pandora's box. At least the US (and women and children in Afghanistan who were victims of The Taliban) got to enjoy a period of "liberation" before the human rights shit show started. We didn't start the military campaign by turning a hospital full of innocent and wounded people into a parking lot. Being against the Iraq War was very unpopular when it started. I know I am equally in the minority in thinking it was an act of moral courage for Joe Biden to finally pull the plug on the failed debacle in Afghanistan. Which, by the way, was set up WITH THE TALIBAN when Trump was POTUS. People want to focus on the dozens of military killed by terrorists at the airport, and blame that on Biden. Fair enough. Had Obama listened to Biden and pulled the plug at the start of Obama's Presidency, instead of trying a surge, it would have prevented the vast majority of the 2,465 US military who died in Afghanistan. Not to mention the deaths of allies and very large numbers of innocents due to human rights abuses. Two different wars. Call me an American, but I believe the US invasion of Afghanistan after our 9/11 was actually much more morally justified. I do think our intentions were good, and our military was honorable. The simple and profound moral similarity is that you shouldn't start a war you can't win, and that will only lead to more terrorism and more human rights tragedies. I hope that is what Biden tells Netanyahu and his war allies, privately.

Holy shit, Batman. Is this even possible? Why a Gaza Invasion and ‘Once and for All’ Thinking Are Wrong for Israel by Thomas Friedman I have to admit I have really mixed feelings about Friedman's article. On the one hand, Friedman is spot on. He succinctly stated all the best reasons this is probably going to be a disaster for Israel, and US global interests. Especially if it's based on the Netanyahu Doctrine, which is basically "whatever it takes." On the other hand, Friedman is my go to guy for being wrong about pretty much everything that really matters. He was wrong in advocating for the Iraq War. He was wrong about "the world is flat." He missed that whole thing about the revolt against globalization. Which led to, among other things, the rise of MAGA and Trump. He was wrong about how if we could just bubble wrap seniors for a year or two COVID wasn't gonna be such a big deal. So Friedman being against Israel invading Gaza is actually the first thing I've read that makes me think maybe an invasion actually makes sense. 🙄 On balance, I'd say maybe Friedman is like the broken clock that is at least right twice a day. Luttwak at least acknowledges that taking Hamas out is impossible. Building on that, Friedman is right that any war plan premised on invading to take Hamas out is going to be a disaster. Too many tunnels. Too much time. His argument for "more surgical means to eliminate or capture Hamas's leadership" is an argument made right on time. Even if his clock is still broken. 😉

Agreed. Just to be clear, when I cited the Powell Doctrine I'm not advocating a ground offensive. But it sounds like IDF has 300,000+ reservists on top of their regular forces getting ready to go in. A bunch of them are probably going to die. My point with the Powell Doctrine is the least bad outcome if they are going to go in is that they define achievable objectives and then get out. If they instead think they are actually going to obliterate Hamas, which is what the hawks are all screaming for, we're probably going to all learn that finding terrorists in tunnels is as easy as finding terrorists in caves. My guess based on everything we know about Netanyahu is that he will plan to stay permanently with the intention of turning Gaza into a parking lot. It seems to me like this comes right out of the bin Laden playbook. Yeah, bin Laden got taken out eventually. But it took the better part of a decade. Good luck, Netanyahu. I'm being broken record about "the action is in the reaction." But a favorite line from the civil rights movement is that if MLK didn't have Bull Connor, he would have had to invent him. It's a weird idea, I know. But a true one. Images of a racist Southern bigot cop attacking innocent Black people with dogs just because they wanted to vote helped MLK. And MLK knew it, and methodically planned on it. I've always thought the equivalent was this: if bin Laden did not have George W. Bush, he would have had to invent him. When I say that, I am specifically talking about the Iraq War, not Afghanistan. There were theories that bin Laden's end game was to let the US be the bad guy and use the reaction to whip up revolution in the Middle East. Some version of that played out. It didn't help keep bin Laden from being dead at the bottom of an ocean. But it birthed ISIS. Part of my point is that we have no idea what horrors will emerge years from now after Hamas and Netanyahu conspire to open Pandora's box. But it was not hard to predict that the Iraq War would open Pandora's box and measurably weaken the US's stature in the world. It did. Another reason I dredge up bin Laden is that Afghanistan was the war I and most Americans supported. And yet even that ended badly. In part because Bush 43 forgot or ignored what Bush 41 and Powell taught us about effective military campaigns. The idea that we could occupy Afghanistan for decades and turn it into something completely different sounded good at the time to many. It doesn't look so smart in retrospect. In my eyes, Hamas looks like the true evil genius, compared to blundering bin Laden. Bin Laden never ruled Afghanistan. His fallback was always a cave or a safe house in Pakistan. Hamas actually rules Gaza. It's perfectly fine to say they promised to turn it into the Hong Kong of the Middle East, and they didn't do that. But it completely misses the point. They now have Gaza set up to spend years blowing up Israeli soldiers. Or using them for target practice with snipers. And they will. Meanwhile, Hamas leaders will be hiding and living in tunnels while the UN deplores the horrific conditions in the parking lot Gaza is being turned into. Whatever the polls say today, they won't get more favorable to Israel if that is what happens. I'm pretty sure that is exactly what Hamas is planning on, just like bin Laden did. To underscore the point, I'll cite a particularly interesting Israeli hawk, who has written widely respected books on military strategy and actually killed enemies fighting in Israeli wars, Edward Lutwak. The whole long essay is thoughtful, but here's the part most relevant: The last line is probably the most important one. This at least suggests some achievable objectives that don't sound like "kill Palestinian women and kids and pave them into the parking lot." But Lutwak is a realist who acknowledges that Hamas is as dug in as they can be. Another point he makes in that essay is that Israel will quickly revert to having 30 guards at every checkpoint, rather than one or two who are easy to take out. That will help. The scariest thing he says, in my mind, is in a different essay: That's all well and good. Part of me is proud of Israel, in the way I am proud that 88 % of Americans said after 9/11, to be blunt, "We have to take these fuckers out." I'm not complaining that bin Laden is dead at the bottom of an ocean. But it still doesn't change the fact that Israel is opening Pandora's box, just like the US did. It's fine for Israel to be unified around the idea that "Hamas has to be destroyed," just like the US was about bin Laden after 9/11. But Lutwak is sober enough to state "there are no guarantess that any lasting result will be achieved." Ya think? And that's coming from a hard core hawk who pretty much has the worst possible view of Arab and Palestinian leaders. Wait til the UN and the EU chime in. I think Hamas is the evil genius who is counting on the fact that no lasting result will be achieved. Good luck, Netanyahu. You might want to consult with George W. Bush. Unity is awesome. But this may not turn out as planned.

That's actually part of the tragedy. I feel as bad for the families of hundreds of dead IDF soldiers killed by Hamas as I do for the women and children killed. Of course, I think a bunch of the IDF soldiers killed by Hamas were women. I read somewhere that a lot of female soldiers guarding checkpoints were among the first taken out by Hamas. Authorities name 291 soldiers, 51 police officers killed in 2023 terror clashes Col. (res.) Lion Bar, 53, a senior officer in the Judea and Samaria Division, from Gedera. Lt. Col. Sahar Machluf, 36, the commander of the 481st Signal Battalion, from Modiin. Lt. Col. Yonatan Tzur, 33, the commander of the Nahal Reconnaissance Battalion, from Kedumim. Commander (Navy equivalent of Lt. Col.) Eli Ginsburg, 42, a Shayetet 13 officer, from Dovrat. Lt. Col. Alim Abdullah, 40, the deputy commander of the 300th “Baram” Regional Brigade, from Yanuh-Jat. Maj. (res.) Noy Shush, 36, a local security officer, from Be’eri. Maj. (res.) Uri Shimon Russo, 44, a local security officer, from Kfar Aza. Maj. Benjamin (Benji) Tarkinsky, 32, head of operations in the 7th Armored Brigade. Maj. Chen Buchris, 26, the deputy commander of Maglan, from Ashdod. Maj. Amir Skuri, 31, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Jerusalem. Maj. Ariel Ben Moshe, 27, a Sayeret Matkal commander. Maj. Avraham Hovlashvili, 26, an officer in Carcal, from Ashdod. Maj. Ido Yehoshua, 27, an Israeli Air Force instructor. Maj. (res.) Omri Michaeli, 35, a Duvdevan soldier, from Nes Tziona. Maj. Peleg Salem, 30, a logistics officer, from Netanya. Maj. Ido Yisrael Shani, 29, the deputy commander of the Nahal reconnaissance unit, from Ramat Gan. Maj. (res.) Ram Negbi, 57, a local security officer, from Ein Hashlosha. Maj. Roi Chapel, 25, a Nahal commander, from Zichron Yaakov. Maj. Tal Cohen, 30, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Ganei Tal. Maj. Mordecai Shamir, 29, an officer in the Infantry Corps, from Yakir. Maj. (res.) Eitan Menachem Naeman, 44, a combat medic in the 551st Brigade, from Tene. Maj. Uriel Bibi, 30, a Paratrooper officer, from Shlomit. Maj. Ilay Zisser, 27, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Givat Olga. Maj. Ido Huvra, 37, a soldier in the 401st Armored Brigade, from Sufa. Cpt. (res.) Adi Bahrav Rabinovich, 62, a local security officer, from Netiv Ha’asara. Cpt. (res.) Yaakov Nadlin, 36, a combat soldier in the Samaria Brigade from Or Akiva. Cpt. (res.) Elhanan Meir Klemenzon, 41, an officer in the Judea and Samaria Division, from Otniel. Cpt. Adir Ovadi, 23, a commander in the Home Front Command, from Modiin. Cpt. Sagi Golan, 30, a Lotar commander, from Raanana. Cpt. Yotam Ben Bassat, 24, a commander in the Multidomain Unit, from Bat Hefer. Cpt. Arye Shlomo Ziering, 27, an Oketz officer, from Raanana. Cpt. Tal Grushka, 25, a Nahal officer, from Kfar Saba. Cpt. (res) Roi Nagri, 28, a Lotar unit commander, from Tel Aviv. Cpt. (res.) Meir David Haim, 31, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Jerusalem. Cpt. Raz Peretz, 24, a Golani commander, from Afula. Cpt. Hadar Kama, 24, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Givat Shapira. Cpt. Ben Bronstein, 24, a Duvdevan soldier, from Holon. Cpt. (res.) Yuval Halibani, 30, a soldier in the 551st Brigade, from Ramat Gan. Cpt. Shilo Har-Even, 25, a Golani soldier, from Almon. Cpt. (res.) Amir Naim, 27, a Combat Engineering officer, from Erez. Cpt. (res.) Avraham Hananel Hindi, 37, a local security officer, from Kfar Aza. Cpt. Guy Admoni, 25, an intelligence officer, from Kfar Aza. Lt. Dor Sade, 22, a Givati soldier, from Arugot. Lt. Or Moses, 22, a commander in the Home Front Command, from Ashdod. Lt. Yiftah Yaabetz, 23, a commander in Maglan, from Ramat Hasharon. Lt. Menashe Yoav Maliev, 19, an officer in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Kiryat Ono. Lt. Amitay Zvi Granot, 24, a commander in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Tel Aviv. Lt. Or Yosef Ran, 29, a commander in Duvdevan, from Itamar. Lt. (res.) Ido Edri, 24, an infantry officer, from Givaton. Lt. Shilo Cohen, 24, a Shaldag soldier, from Sderot. Lt. Shoham Tomer, 23, a Nahal officer, from Srigim. Lt. Itay Maor, 23, a Golani officer, from Rosh Haayin. Lt. Rom Shlomi, 23, a Shalgad officer, from Ganot. Lt. Itay Cohen, 22, a Yahalom commander, from Rehovot. Lt. Nitai Omer, a Combat Engineering officer 22, from Alumim. Lt. Alina Pravosudova, 23, a Home Front Command officer, from Haifa. Lt. Eden Nimri, 22, a commander in the Artillery Corps’ drone unit. Lt. Dekel Suisa, 21, a Golani commander, from Bar Giora. Lt. Ori Mordecai Shany, 22, a Golani commander, from Kiryat Arba. Lt. Ron Tsarfati, 22, an officer in the Air Force’s air traffic control unit, from Hadera. Lt. Sahar Saudin, 21, an instructor in the air defense array, from Rosh Haayin. Lt. Eyal Klein, 22, a Nahal soldier, from Kfar Harif. Lt. Amir Tzur, 23, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Jerusalem. Lt. Ilay Adani, 21, a Maglan soldier, from Tel Mond. Lt. Shilo Rochberger, 23, a Golani commander, from Eli. Lt. Idan Baloy, 21, a Golani signals officer, from Rishon Lezion. Lt. Shir Eilat, 20, a Unit 414 commander, from Kfar Shmuel. Lt. Roi Nahari, 23, a Paratroopers officer, from Ora. Lt. Omer Wolf, 22, a Golani commander, from Givat Haim. 2nd Lt. Adar Ben Simon, 20, a commander in the Home Front Command, from Neve Ziv. 2nd Lt. Yanai Kaminka, 20, a commander in the Home Front Command, from Tzur Hadassah. 2nd Lt. Yonatan Guttin, 20, a signals officer in the Multidomain Unit, from Modiin. 2nd Lt. Yuval Yafe, 21, an officer in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Tzofit. 2nd Lt. Yohai Duchan, 26, a Golani commander, from Kiryat Arba. 2nd Lt. Sahar Tal, 20, an intelligence officer in the 7th Armored Brigade, fro Tzora. Warrant Officer Ido Rosenthal, 45, a Shaldag soldier, from Beit Shean. Warrant Officer (res.) Avraham Fleischer, 63, a local security officer, from Magen. Warrant Officer (res.) Gil Boyum, 55, a local security officer, from Be’eri. First Sgt. (res.) Yiftah Gurni, 51, a local security officer, from Be’er Milka. First Sgt. (res.) Abraham Gabriel Korin, 56, a local security officer, from Holit. First Sgt. Ibrahim Kharuba, 39, a tracker in the Gaza Division, from Maghar. First Sgt. Aharon Farash, 36, a logistics NCO, from Ofakim First Sgt. Salman Ibn Marai, 41, a tracker in the Gaza Divison, from Segev Shalom. First Sgt. (res.) Reuven Shishportish, 36, a local security officer, from Shlomit. First Sgt. (res.) Ilan Fiorentino, 38, a local security officer, from Nahal Oz. First Sgt. (res.) Aviad Gad Cohen, 41, a soldier in the Etzioni Brigade, from Shlomit. First Sgt. Gil Avital, 56, a local security officer, from Yesha. Master Sgt. (res.) Shachar Aviani, 56, a local security officer, from Kfar Aza. Master Sgt. (res.) Aviv Baram, 33, a local security officer, from Kfar Aza. Master Sgt. (res.) Tal Maman, 38, a local security officer, from Mivtahim. Master Sgt. (res.) Lior Ben Yaakov, 44, a local security officer, from Yesha. Master Sgt. (res.) Yuval Gabai, 35, a commander in the Border Defense Corps. Master Sgt. (res.) Israel Amichai Witzen, 33, a local security officer, from Kerem Shalom. Master Sgt. (res.) Yaron Victor Shahar, 51, a local security officer, from Nir Yitzhak. Master Sgt. (res.) Behor Sweid, 32, a local security officer, from Shlomit. Master Sgt. (res.) Liran Mons Almosnino, 42, a soldier in the Paran Regional Brigade, from Kmehin. Master Sgt. (res.) Noam Slotaki, 31, a combat medic in the Carmeli Brigade, from Jerusalem. Master Sgt. (res.) Saar Margolis, 37, a local security officer, from Kissufim. Master Sgt. (res.) Shachar Tzemach, 39, a local security officer from Be’eri. Master Sgt. (res.) Dan Asulin, 38, a local security officer, from Mivtahim. Master Sgt. (res.) Shachaf Bergstein, 33, a local security officer, from Kfar Aza. Sgt. First Class (res.) Haim Yeshurun Katzman, 32, head of a local security team, from Holit. Sgt. First Class Amir Fisher, 22, a Duvdevan soldier, from Tel Aviv. Sgt. First Class Vitaly Shipkevich, 21, an Egoz soldier, from Ariel. Sgt. First Class (res.) Tomer Dolev. 34, a Home Front Command soldier, from Ashkelon. Sgt. First Class Imri Belkin, 25, a Lotar instructor, from Ramat Hasharon. Sgt. First Class Yosef Malachi Guedalia, 22, a Duvdevan soldier, from Jerusalem. Sgt. First Class Jawad Amar, 23, commander of firing zone 150, from Hurfeish. Sgt. First Class Gilad Molcho, 33, an Egoz soldier, from Tel Aviv. Sgt. First Class (res.) Avichai Amsalem, 30, a soldier in the 551st Brigade, from Hadera. Sgt. First Class (res.) Yedidya Moshe Raziel, 31, a local security officer, from Kerem Shalom. Sgt. First Class Adam Agmon, 21, a commander at the School for Infantry Corps Professions and Squad Commanders, from Kamon. Sgt. First Class (res.) Itay Shlomo Morenu, 24, a Maglan soldier, from Aderet. Sgt. First Class Yishai Slotaki, 24, a soldier in the Oded Brigade, from Beersheba. Sgt. First Class (res.) Daniel Kastiel, 24, a Maglan soldier, from Bet Shemesh. Staff Sgt. Itay Avraham Ron, 20, a Golani soldier, from Nes Tziona. Staff Sgt. Daniel Bezgodov, 22, a Nahal soldier, from Afula. Staff Sgt. Itamar Ben Yehuda, 21, a Golani commander, from Rehovot. Staff Sgt. Ofek Arbiv, 21, a Paratrooper, from Bat Yam. Staff Sgt. (res.) Matanya Elster, 22, a soldier in the Carmeli Brigade, from Sde Ilan. Staff Sgt. Neta Bar Am, 21, a Unit 414 soldier, from Hadera. Staff Sgt. Ofir Tzioni, 21, a commander in the Home Front Command, from Yokne’am Illit. Staff Sgt. Omri Niv Feirstein, 20, a Home Front Command soldier, from Givatayim. Staff Sgt. Yuval Ben Yaakov, 21, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Kfar Menahem. Staff Sgt. Aner Elkim Shapira, 22, a Nahal soldier, from Jerusalem. Staff Sgt. (res.) Ofek Arazi, 28, a local security officer, from Nir Yitzhak. Staff Sgt. (res.) Omer Nissim Bitan, 22, a soldier in the 5th Brigade, from Binyamina Staff Sgt. Shlomo Rashtnikov, 20, a Golani soldier, from Haifa. Staff Sgt. Ido Harush, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Mitspe Ramon. Staff Sgt. Roi Weiser, 21, a Golani soldier, from Efrat. Staff Sgt. Adir Gauri, 20, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Jerusalem. Staff Sgt. Guy Simchi, 20, a Paratrooper, from Gedera. Staff Sgt. Or Mizrahi, 21, a Nahal soldier, from Petah Tikva. Staff Sgt. Ilay Gamzu, 20, a Paratrooper, from Ashdod. Staff Sgt. Ohad Cohen, 20, a Shaldag soldier, from Idan. Staff Sgt. Orel Moshe, 21, a Golani soldier, from Rechasim. Staff Sgt. Yosef Itamar Beruchim, 20, a paratrooper, from Ashdod. Staff Sgt. Tshager Taka, 21, a Golani soldier, from Jerusalem. Staff Sgt. Nave Eliezer Lex, 21, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Lod. Staff Sgt. Alexander Masli, 21, a Combat Engineering technician, from Afula. Staff Sgt. Tal Levi, 21, a Nahal soldier, from Jerusalem. Staff Sgt. Moshe Danino, 21, a Golani soldier, from Haifa. Staff Sgt. Yaad Ben Yaakov, 20, a Golani soldier, from Petah Tikva. Staff Sgt. Max Ravinov, 21, a Unit 414 soldier, from Ashdod. Staff Sgt. David Retner, 20, a Golani soldier, from Ashdod. Staff Sgt. Jonathan Golan, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Yehud. Staff Sgt Yogev Aharon, 20, a Golani soldier from Pardes Hana. Staff Sgt. Amit Peled, 21, an Egoz unit soldier, from Haifa. Staff Sgt. Adi Tzur, 20, a Golani soldier, from Jerusalem. Staff Sgt. Michael Ben Hamo, 21, a Golani soldier, from Rehovot. Staff Sgt. Elad Michael Shushan, 21, an Egoz soldier, from Motza Illit. Staff Sgt. Yonatan Savitsky, 21, an Egoz soldier, from Modiin. Staff Sgt. Roi Bareket, 20, a Golani soldier, from Modiin. Staff Sgt. Dolev Amouyal, 21, a Golani soldier, from Netanya. Staff Sgt. Dvir Zakai, 20, a Golani soldier, from Tiberias. Staff Sgt. Tomer Yaakov Mizrahi, 21, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Hoshaya. Staff Sgt. Aviel Malkamo, 21, an Egoz soldier, from Kiryat Ata. Staff Sgt. David Yerhi, 21, a Golani soldier, from Rishon Lezion. Staff Sgt. Ofek Russo, 21, a Shayetet 13 soldier, from Kadima Zoran. Staff Sgt. Daniel Kasavchuk, 21, a technician in the air defense array. Staff Sgt. Shoham Bar, 21, a logistics NCO in Golani, from Ahuzat Barak. Staff Sgt. Yishai Fitoussi, 21, a Golani soldier, from Talmon. Staff Sgt. Dor Lazimi, 21, a Golani soldier, from Kfar Tavor. Staff Sgt. Nadav Biton, 20, a Kfir soldier, from Ofakim. Staff Sgt. Nehorai Levi Amitai, 20, a Golani commander, from Rinatya. Sgt. Yam Goldstein Almog, 20, a commander in the Computer Service Directorate, from Kfar Aza. Sgt. Ofir Shoshani, 20, a commander at the Mifrasit Base, from Kfar Aza. Sgt. Daniel Rashed, 19, a Golani soldier, from Shefa-‘Amr Sgt. Adi Landman, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Yokne’am Illit. Sgt. Imri Peretz, 20, a commander at the School for Infantry Corps Professions and Squad Commanders, from Elyakhin. Sgt. Roi Haim Guri, 21, a Golani soldier, from Ofakim. Sgt. (res.) Adi Odaya Baruch, 22, a soldier in the Judea Regional Brigade, from Kiryat Netafim. Sgt. Or Mizrahi, 20, a Unit 414 soldier, from Ramat Gan. Sgt. Benjamin Blai, 20, a driver in the Gaza Division, from Rehovot. Sgt. Maoro Alam, 20, a Golani soldier, from Ashkelon. Sgt. Adir Ishto Bogla, 20, a Golani soldier, from Ariel. Sgt. Gali Roi Shakotai, 21, a Nahal soldier, from Tzofar. Sgt. Yarin Ma’ari Peled, 20, a medic in the Gaza Division, from Be’eri. Sgt. Neria Ben David, 22, a Combat Engineering commander, from Haifa. Sgt. Or Asto, 21, a logistics NCO in Golani, from Beersheba. Sgt. Ofek Rosental, 20, a Maglan soldier, from Kfar Menahem. Sgt. Eden Alon Levi, 19, a commander in the Home Front Command, from Nirit. Sgt. Itay-El Marciano, 20, a Paratrooper, from Shoham. Sgt. Ben Rubenstein, 20, a Lotar unit instructor, from Hod Hasharon. Sgt. Yaron Uri Shay, 21, a Nahal soldier, from Kadima Zoran. Sgt. Rotem Dushi, 20, a Paratrooper, from Shimshit. Sgt. Or Malka, 21, a COGAT soldier, from Acre. Sgt. Yakir Levi, 21, a Golani soldier, from Moreshet. Sgt. Benjamin Loeb, 23, a Paratrooper, from Jerusalem. Sgt. Amichay Yaakov Vaninu, 22, a Maglan commander, from Katzrin. Sgt. Itay Nahmias, 20, a Multidomain Unit soldier, from Yesha. Sgt. Tomer Barak, 20, a Golani soldier, from Petah Tikva. Sgt. Evyatar Ohayon, 22, a Golani soldier, from Jerusalem. Sgt. Noam Elimelech Rotenburg, 24, a soldier at the Training Command, from Beersheba. Sgt. Brando David Flores Garcia, 21, a driver in the Gaza Division, from Beersheba. Sgt. Amit Mosat, 20, a Golani soldier, from Modiin. Sgt. Sahar Midani, 20, a Golani soldier, from Kiryat Ekron. Sgt. Avraham Neria Cohen, 20, a soldier in the Gaza Division, from Jerusalem. Sgt. Bar Rosenstein, 20, a Golani soldier, from Rishon Letzion. Sgt. Nehorai Saeed, 21, a Kfir soldier, from Ofakim. Sgt. Ofir Melman, 21, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Nir Yitzhak. Sgt. Regev Amar, 20, a Paratrooper, from Sde Nehemia. Sgt. Aviad Rivlin, 23, a soldier in the Technological and Logistics Directorate, from Otniel. Sgt. Eliasf Ben Porat, 21, a cook in the 282nd Artillery Regiment, from Safed. Sgt. Naor Siboni, 20, a Golani soldier, from Gilat. Sgt. Daniel Shaferber, 20, a Unit 414 soldier, from Yehud. Sgt. Shimon Elroy Ben Shitrit, 20, a Unit 414 soldier, from Beit Shean. Sgt. Noa Price, 20, a Unit 414 soldier, from Mevoim. Sgt. Valentin (Eli) Gancia, 22, a Paratrooper, from Jerusalem. Sgt. Barak Ben David, 19, a Golani soldier, from Dimona. Sgt. Itay Ofek Glisko, 20, a Golani soldier, from Yokne’am Illit. Sgt. Dvir Chaim Ressler, 21, a Golani soldier, from Kedumim. Sgt. Shahaf Nisani, 20, a Unit 414 soldier, from Ashkelon. Sgt. Ori Carmi, 20, a Golani soldier, from Rishon Lezion. Cpl. Kamay Achiel, 18, a Snapir sailor in the 914th Patrol Squadron, from Rosh Haayin. Cpl. Tomer Leibovitz, 19, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Tel Aviv. Cpl. Rotem Kutz, 18, a commander in the Computer Service Directorate, from Kfar Aza. Cpl. Osher Simcha Barzilai, 19, a soldier in the Gaza Division, from Mazkeret Batya. Cpl. Nahman Dekel, 20, a Nahal soldier, from Holon. Cpl. Yotam Hallel, 19, a Nahal soldier, from Bareket. Cpl. Shoham Shlomo Nidam, 19, a technician in Golani, from Kiryat Shmona Cpl. Boaz Menashe Yogev, 19, a technician in the Gaza Division, from Talmon. Cpl. Amir Eyal, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Haifa. Cpl. Habib Keyan, 21, a Golan soldier, from Hura. Cpl. Yael Leibushor, 20, a Unit 414 soldier, from Ge’a. Cpl. Nativ Kutzro, 21, a technician in the air defense array. Cpl. Dvir Lisha, 21, a Golani soldier, from Nitzan. Cpl. Guy Bazak, 19, a Golani soldier, from Givatayim. Cpl. Netanel Young, 20, a Golani soldier from Tel Aviv. Cpl. Adi Gurman, 19, a Unit 414 soldier. Cpl. Ariel Eliyahu, 19, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Mitspe Yeriho. Cpl. Danit Cohen, 19, a soldier in the IDF Southern Command, from Sderot. Cpl. Amit Guetta, 21, a Maglan soldier, from Rehovot. Cpl. Itamar Ayish, 19, a Home Front Command soldier, from Kiryat Gat. Cpl. Ori Looker, 19, a Golani soldier, from Pardes Hana-Karkur. Cpl. Yaron Zahar, 19, a Golani soldier, from Kiryat Ata. Cpl. Adir Tahar, 19, a Golani soldier, from Jerusalem. Cpl. Amit Tzur, 19, a Golani soldier, from Elyachin. Cpl. Ilay Bar Sadeh, 19, a Golani soldier, from Ramat Gan. Cpl. Idan Raz, 20, a Golani soldier, from Ein HaMifratz. Cpl. Lior Azizov, 20, a Golani soldier, from Kfar Silver. Cpl. Roi Peri, 19, a Golani soldier, from Shoham. Cpl. Shir Biton, 19, a medic in the Gaza Division, from Ashdod. Cpl. Osher Shmia, 19, a soldier in the Gaza Division, from Beersheba. Cpl. Shir Shlomo, 19, a Home Front Command soldier, from Netanya. Cpl. Ofir Testa, 21, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Jerusalem. Cpl. Ariel Ohana, 19, a Paratrooper, from Revadim. Cpl. Hallel Shmuel Saadan, a Nahal soldier, from Barkai. Cpl. Erez Ariel, 19, a Golani soldier, from Amka. Cpl. Sivan Simcha Asraf, 20, a signals soldier, from Ashkelon. Cpl. Ram Meir Batito, 19, a Golani soldier, from Netanya. Cpl. Amir Lavi, 19, a Nahal soldier, from Jerusalem. Cpl. Uriel Segal, 19, a Golani soldier, from Petah Tikva. Cpl. Shay Ashram, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Rehovot. Cpl. Bar Yankelov, 19, a Paratrooper, from Karmiel. Cpl. Tomer Nagar, 20, a Golani soldier, from Jerusalem. Cpl. Lavi Bouchnik, 20, a Paratrooper, from Peduim. Cpl. Natan Chai Lior, 20, a Kfir soldier, from Netanya. Cpl. Shalev Baranes, 20, a Golani soldier, from Kfar Baruch. Cpl. Ido Binenstock, 19, a Golani soldier, from Ramat Gan. Cpl. Itamar Cohen, 19, a Golani soldier, from Carmiel. Cpl. Emil Smoylov, 22, a guard in COGAT, from Haifa. Cpl. Amichai Shimon Rubin, 23, a Golani soldier, from Acre. Cpl. David Mittelman, 20, a Golani soldier, from Rosh Tzurim. Cpl. Shirel Mor, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Raanana. Cpl. Ilay Ben Mucha, 20, a Golani soldier, from Ashdod. Cpl. Aviv Hajaj, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Galit. Cpl. Karin Schwartzman, 20, an Air Force technician, from Holon. Cpl. Shimon Lugasi, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Acre. Cpl. Benjamin Gavriel Yona, 19, a driver in the air defense array. Cpl. Or Avital, 20, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade. Cpl. Matan Malka, 19, a Paratrooper from Gesher Haziv. Cpl. Matan Abarjil, 19, a Golani soldier, from Hermesh. Cpl. Ofir Yeruhin, 19, a Golani soldier, from Givat Shmuel. Pvt. Maya Vialovo Polo, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Givatayim. Pvt. Yonatan Elazari, 19, a Paratrooper, from Alon Shvut. Pvt. Ilay Azar, 18, a soldier in the Gaza Divison, from Shefayim. Pvt. Neria Aharon Nagiri, 18, a Home Front Command soldier, from Talmon. Pvt. Naama Buni, 19, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade. Pvt. Ofir Davidian, 18, a logistics soldier in the Home Front Command, from Patish. Pvt. Lior Levy, 19, a soldier in the Home Front Command, from Dimona. Pvt. Noam Abramovitz, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Givat Brener. Pvt. Shirat Yam Amer, 18, a Unit 414 soldier, from Kiryat Ono. Pvt. Lirod Makayes, 19, a COGAT soldier, from Ofakim. Pvt. Hadar Miryam Cohen, 18, a Unit 414 soldier, from Zeitan. Pvt. Idan Baruch, 20, a soldier in the Education Corps. An updated list of the slain soldiers and further details can be found at the following [Hebrew] link. And then there are the IDF soldiers who were prisoners in Gaza bombed by Israel I'm a huge fan of the Powell Doctrine. Have a defined and achievable military objective. Get in. And get out. Keep soldiers who are serving us alive. That is why Gulf War I (Bush 41/Powell) worked well, and kept soldiers alive. And Gulf War II (Bush 43/Cheney) didn't. I have no idea how you do the Powell Doctrine in a situation like Gaza. I strongly suspect Hamas, evil but not stupid, knew this when they planned the attack.

You and I of course view polls differently. But in this case I would say there's a very long term trend established. And you don't need polls to understand it. Bill Clinton wrote one of the best essays I've read about what changed Israel. Two of the main factors he identified were immigration and demographics. Meaning the increasing percentage, both through immigration and birth rates, of religious conservatives who are like a US version of MAGA. Bill Clinton: Netanyahu killed the peace process I could not find the longer Bill Clinton essay I was looking for. Which is a shame, since everyone here loves verbose essays. 😉 But I did find that article, which summarizes Clinton's views. Note that it is from 2011. I think it helps explain why there has been less peace and more shit show ever since. Another thing I don't need a poll to tell me is that Alinsky was spot on when he said "the action is in the reaction." Clinton lets Arafat off easy in that essay. There were polls at the time that document that when Arafat said "Fuck peace," Israelis basically did, too. Goodbye, Barak and Labor. Hello, hardliners. While there is no justification for terrorism, period, the fact that Hamas is a reaction to everything Netanyahu stands for is simply a fact, I think. So if you believe the action is in the reaction, like I do, you can see where this is going. It won't be pretty, for anyone. You don't have to be an Einstein, or even a Netan-yahoo, to figure out that if the reaction can't be peace, somehow sooner or later it's going to be war. And here we are.

Israel Only Western Country to Prefer Trump Over Biden, Pew Finds I know I already used my bandwidth. But that headline deserves to be singled out. It makes perfect sense to me that Israel prefers Trump. Since he will generally support Netanyahu's longstanding "whatever it takes" battle plan, in practice if not in political rhetoric. Meanwhile, pretty much the rest of the world thinks Biden, like Obama, more often stands for the things people actually respect about America. I can live with that.

I think most Americans over 65 would generally agree with that statement, based on polls. Here's the thing. If turning Gaza into a parking lot involves turning thousands of innocent Palestinian women and kids into scraps of flesh and blood and brain, isn't that kind of like what Hamas just did? And can someone explain how this is the only course of action that will prevent a Palestinian Hitler from taking over and sending all the Jews in Israel to Palestinian extermination camps? That seems pretty unlikely to happen. Why? For starters, there's the entire history of how Israel always wins the body count when it comes to how many Palestinians have to die to avenge Israeli deaths. Israel has, by the way, already won the body count on this war, which hasn't even started. Holocaust II is an argument one can make. We know that, because many slightly less unrealistic arguments like this are being made. Regardless, many young Americans in particular see Israel as an apartheid state. They don't see this as preventing another Holocaust. They see it as apartheid. The idea that turning Gaza into a parking lot is okay seems to be what confirms their feelings. As far as the polls, since I'm the poll nuance guy, it is 1000 % clear that an overwhelming majority of Americans (and I think people in most countries, where polls have been taken recently) feel the US should "support" Israel after what can legitimately be called their 9/11. I'd also already read the CNN poll saying that about half of Americans feel a military response to a Hamas terrorist attack is "fully justified." My simple and I think correct interpretation of that poll is that if you ask people whether it's okay for terrorists to slaughter women and kids, most people will so no. Emphatically. And they'll say such a slaughter has to be responded to, probably with military force. Once you get beyond that, it gets very murky. Pro-Israel Democrats like Mellman can read what they want into the polls. But they are on shaky ground I think. For example, take a guess what people would probably say in response to this poll question: "Should Gaza be turned into a parking lot, even if it involves the mass extermination of Palestinian women and children, in order to protect Israelis regardless of whatever it takes?" I think most people would be against the mass extermination of Palestinian women and kids. Just like they are against terrorist attacks on Israeli women and kids. I stand by what I said. I think Israel has lost a pro-Israel US majority. What I mean is that there is broad and deep horror about a terrorist attack. And a feeling that it can't just be ignored. But is the US behind Israel, "whatever it takes?" No way. On the right, Trump is articulating the antipathy to the US being a global cop that seems to be at the heart of Trump's MAGA movement. On the left, people look at Israel and see an apartheid state. That doesn't make terrorism right. But it doesn't make apartheid right, either. A lot of what happens to US public opinion next will depend on what Israel actually does. That ABC poll you cited above, @EmmetK, actually supports my argument, not yours. It says a "plurality" - not a majority - in the US back what Israel is doing. There are as many different shades of that answer as their are nuances in poll questions. I think the thing that is very clear is that for Americans over 65, the bumper sticker "whatever it takes" does actually work well. That's the present, and past. For Gen Z, who grew up under the Israel of Netanyahu, "apartheid state" is a bumper sticker that works increasing well. That is the present, and future. If Israel does turn Gaza into a parking lot, I'll predict both US and global opinion about Israel will shift even more to "apartheid state." Good luck with that, Netanyahu. That said, it is all very fluid. I would not bet on how this plays out, either in terms of the war itself or US public opinion. I agree with @JKane that it probably means more violence, life gets shittier for Palestinians, and that lays the seeds for even more and worse horror and terrorism. I checked to see how polls turned out in similar situations in the past, like the US 9/11. I find this history instructive. Israel might want to worry about their 9/11, if they reflect on how the US 9/11 played out in the long run: The important distinction I will make is that Americans overwhelmingly agreed that our 9/11 was an unjustified horror, and something had to be done. I think the US and the world pretty much feel the same about Israel. Empathy, and support. When you just left it at that, polls at the time showed the world overwhelmingly sympathized with and supported the US. Where things got dicey, as the above polls document, is once you started to talk about a military invasion. Let alone its consequences years or decades later. And this was the GOOD war that most Americans agreed about. Once you get to Iraq, it was a divisive shit show right out of the gate. Overall, I think Iraq was the single worst US policy decision in my lifetime. Many commentators on both left and right would agree with me. Iraq set the stage for a weak and floundering US that is globally viewed as a hypocrite. Again, all that played out over years and started with the sympathy of the entire world on the side of the US right after 9/11. With the benefit of hindsight, if there is a lesson for Israel it is that a focus on legal mechanisms makes sense. Like kill the Hamas leaders or bring them to justice - if possible. And any military invasion (like Afghanistan) should have limited objectives and a clear exit strategy. That said, if I had to bet, Netanyahu's right-wing Israel will want to turn Gaza into a parking lot, permanently. It will play out as well as the US invading Afghanistan did. You heard it here first. So Israel has a lot to worry about when that sympathy fades and the new horrors of an invasion play out. Good luck, Netanyahu.

In this thoughtful Politico article pro-Israel Democrat Mark Mellman argues this is a "redefining moment" in which Americans will now side with Israel more, out of sympathy. As evidence there's a poll that 42 percent of Americans side with Israelis more than Palestinians, which is up 11 points since the attack. I think what is most interesting is the opposite. This is a redefining moment because Israel no longer has a pro-Israel American majority. If 42 % is the best they can do after an unimaginably horrific and unjustifiable rampage, Israel has a problem. US voters over 65 overwhelming (60 %) say Palestinians are more to blame for the violence. Gen Z is as likely to side with Palestinians than Israelis, even after the attack. They also are as likely to blame Israel as Palestinians for the violence. And the plurality blames both sides equally. I can remember a time when if you gave me a gun and a get out of jail free card to kill one global leader, I would have taken out Arafat. The context was he had just shit all over the Clinton/Barak effort to make peace. That was the last significant effort. And it would have left Palestinians far better off than they are today. It also was Israel's last Labor government. Times have changed. I think young Americans look at Israel and say, "It's an apartheid state, doing what apartheid states do. Why act surprised? It won't end well for anyone." One positive thought I had, big picture, is that the US dodged a bullet. Back when Golda Meir was PM of Israel most people would say the chance of having a Palestinian PM of Israel is about as great as the chance of a having a Black President of the US. The US has had a Black Democratic POTUS. And the party most associated with redneck racism (once the Democrats gave up their Jim Crow White supremacist history) now features a dynamic melting pot of Presidential candidates like Haley, Scott, and Ramaswamy. We have fully incorporated the "outsiders" into the US political system. I'm proud of that when I look at the deepening horror of Israel.

You're welcome, doctor. But I am surprised. To think, all of this time, I thought doctors were know it alls. Especially you. 🙄 Not sure if you are defending Spacey, or his lawyers. Or just being a know it all who has something important to say. Even though you don't seem to be saying anything. I stand by my point. Spacey hired lawyers who would make Trump proud, by being attack dogs trying to tear apart accusers to deflect from his serial disgusting and indefensible behavior. That quote of mine is from early in the thread. Subsequent to that I posted lots of thorough documentation of Spacey's chronic habit of being a predator.

No. Actually, it wouldn't. Why buy a symbol of neighborhood blight? Obama has much better taste than that. 😉

First, thanks for laughing at my dry sense of humor. Second, it could have been worse. I was actually thinking of posting this brand new interview between Bill Kristol and Jim Carville. Now you gave me an excuse to do it. The reason I started this thread is to talk about the reasons Biden might lose. The economy, stupid is definitely #1 on my list. But Biden's age and alleged senility is clearly #2. And that is what this interview focuses most on. I really like Kristol and Carville. That said, I was really conflicted watching this. It made me think about college Poli Sci classes with Paul Wellstone and the debate between "armchair political theorists" and quantitative data that actually proves something. These days Kristol and Carville are both armchair theorists, who may just be old and full of shit. That said, Carville in particular outs himself as a poll "bed wetter." (Poor Mary!) He sounds suspiciously like someone who cares a lot about winning. And therefore really cares about polls and focus groups that tell us what voters think. Weird, huh? So he is definitely wetting the bed about what polls and focus groups are telling us about Biden's age and perceived inability to serve for what would be more than five more years. That said, my sage Alan Lichtman basically uses objective quantitative analysis to determine who will win the Presidency, and why. And he's been right every time so far. He says age is not going to be an issue, unless Biden gets a lot worse. He says losing an incumbent is definitely a minus, history shows. And opening the possibility for a bloody internal party fight might not play out well, other than in the minds of armchair theorists like Carville and Kristol. I do think fate will decide. Not to sound harsh, but I won't be shocked if Biden just dies in the next year. Trump could, too. And if Biden's approval rating is 35 % in January, or if RFK comes close to beating him in some early primary like New Hampshire, there is going to be clamoring for others to jump in the race. If Plan Biden works and we dodge the recession bullet and inflation stays where it is now and the Fed starts cutting interest rates, that is a very different picture. One other thing jumped out at me, which echoed another recent interview Kristol had with another Clintonista political strategist, Doug Sosnik, which I cited. Sosnik argued that if Trump can make 2024 about which POTUS managed the economy better, Biden might lose. If the 2024 election is instead about whether we want more crazy, Biden will win. He predicted it will likely be the latter. While Carville is definitely wetting the bed, in his rambling and verbose Cajun common sense way he kind of made the case that most people don't want more crazy. In particular, he pointed out that the progressive woke police is a small faction in the Democratic Party. And they are losing the argument. Whereas MAGA is the Trump majority now among Republicans. And no matter what Trump does, you can never have enough craziness. If Biden and Trump are both alive and running against each other in November 2024, I would not be surprised if that determines who wins. Right now I would not bet on which way it will go.

As always, Ron Brownstein nails it. Granted, the man is verbose. I always believe true intelligence is measured in whether all deep thinking can be communicated in one simple tweet. 😉 But, other than that, Brownstein is spot on: Why ‘Middle-class Joe’ Biden may need upscale voters more than ever in 2024 I think that sums up exactly why it's a jump ball, if the election were held today. It is ironic that Biden has worked harder than any other Democratic POTUS in my lifetime to pander to the working class and non-Whites. And he may win re-election because he is, at the very least, less distasteful to lots of suburban Whites, who are middle class or affluent. If you want even more verbose (ugh!) thoughtfulness on the same issue of how or whether Biden can win in 2024, here's more: The Democrats' Oliver Anthony Problem Get ready for more education polarization. That's Ruy Teixeira's latest screed about how a minority of woke progressives are naively bending over backwards to alienate centrists that are required for a Democratic majority. I mostly agree with Teixeira. That said, if real wages rise for Hispanics and Blacks and working class Whites in the next year, I think a lot of Biden's problems go away. While woke progressives may be annoying, I think there is massive evidence that Biden's biggest problem is the inflation, stupid. And the resulting losses in real wages, stupid. But that turned around this Spring. The irony is that if Brownstein is right, it may not matter. And the fact that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are predominantly - what's the word? WHITE! - may help Biden. Because those states are full of White suburban voters who make enough to not care as much about what a hamburger or a gallon of gas costs. They care far more about Donald Trump being an evil lying prick who is a threat to democracy, apparently. Who knew? 😉

True. But we have to start somewhere. The Hitler example (and Mussolini, and others) suggests that followers don't stop following leaders. But when the leader is no longer leading, their movements can fall apart.

And now for an opposing point of view: Inflation was so bad last year that real household income tumbled the most in 12 years, causing families severe economic pain I'm not sure I agree with the word "severe." But it probably helps explain how a lot of people feel. And it is certainly the tone Republicans are using. What isn't said, and Biden (or Trump) can't say, is that it could have been far worse but for all the stimulus in 2020 and 2021 that avoided a global depression. Like what we had after the last pandemic a century ago. Voters will focus on the pain they feel, and not how it could have been worse. Here's the Fed chart on real family incomes going back decades. So, as Lichtman's Keys would argue, it's the economy, stupid. But it's other stuff, too, stupid. A multi-year decline in real incomes did hurt Republicans in 2008 and Democrats in 2010. But Obama/Biden won in 2012, anyway. Incomes were at a plateau in 2000, but Gore still needed more. The last time it seems like a multi-year decline in incomes may have contributed to the demise of an incumbent was Bush 41 in 1992. Biden built the strongest safety net in U.S. history. Now it’s collapsing around him. The child poverty rate more than doubled in 2022 as Covid-era aid programs expired, erasing major economic gains for the poorest Americans. That's the other sad headline, and a chart that shows long term child poverty rates. I would not bet on whether this hurts Biden, or helps them. He has already laid the tatters of the strongest safety net ever at the feet of Republicans who refused to extend the child tax credits. Which helped Hispanics the most. And were more than any other single measure responsible for the stunning decline in child poverty. The Republicans will no doubt howl, "Inflation!" Without explaining how child tax credits that slashed poverty in the US caused inflation all across Europe. What the 2020 and 2021 experiments did prove is that hard work is necessary, but not sufficient, to slash poverty rates in a country where it is harder than ever to get by on a "working class" wage. Clearly, child tax credits targeted to the middle and bottom helped more than Trump's tax cuts. Which mostly went to the well off. Obama and Biden won in 2012 in part because Romney and Ryan were seen as hostile to the bottom 47 %. While Trump may try to sell himself, again, as the working class billionaire, Biden has the receipts for how his ideas actually helped the Americans working the hardest just to get by. Until the Republicans killed them.

So thanks to the Freedom Caucus impeachment inquiry, we are now set for a gigantic compare and contrast in 2024. Pretty much all the dirt on Joe Biden boils down to whether he took a bribe, directly or indirectly, from Ukraine. A surprising number of people are open to believing these unproven allegations. Which may have something to do with Biden's low approval ratings. If Monikagate boiled down to, "It depends on what the meaning of 'is' is," Burismagate may boil down to what the meaning of "some involvement" is. Meanwhile, there will be absolutely no doubt whatsoever whether Trump had "some involvement" in some very minor shit. Like trying to steal the 2020 election. Or creating an evil environment where Trumpies thought it was cool to threaten to kill the family of a Republican Secretary of State. Or inciting the MAAGverse to jubilantly and patriotically beat the shit out of the cops they love. How could senile old Joe possibly match the festive lies and pure evil of Trump and his MAGAverse? Oh. Did I mention a Senate Republican Committee already went through all this stuff in 2020, and couldn't find anything Joe Biden actually did wrong? Oh. Did I mention Republicans like Ken Buck are publicly admitting there is zero evidence of Joe doing anything impeachable, so far? Oh. Did I mention a bunch of moderate Republicans think this is mostly a strategy to create a backlash, so that Democrats take the House in 2024? Republicans are definitely rolling the dice. I get that at one level this is payback for trying to impeach Trump over Ukraine. But Ukraine was all about Trump's obsession with digging up dirt on Joe Biden. So add a government shut down. And it does create the impression that Republicans care more about digging up dirt on Joe Biden, endlessly, than on actually making sure the government sends out Social Security checks or keeps parks open. I think the conventional wisdom is that Clinton's impeachment hurt Republicans in 1998, leading to the demise of poor nasty Newt Gingrich. For a contrarian view, my sage Alan Lichtman argues the opposite. "Scandal" is one of the 13 keys he argues has helped end Presidencies. He argues that Clinton won the battle in 1998, but lost the war in 2000 when Republicans won the Presidency. He makes a good case. There is poll from 2000 I saw, which I won't bother to dig up since it debatable anyway, that a significant minority of independents chose W. because of concerns like "moral values." The problem for the MAGAverse is twofold. Most people agree that Bill Clinton did bring scandal on himself, and did lie. There is plenty of evidence that Hunter Biden brought scandal on himself. None so far about Joe Biden. So it is not clear whether this ends with "scandal" for Joe Biden, or just "backlash" for House Republicans. Second, even Karl Rove said the October 2000 surprise about W. having a DUI almost cost him the Presidency. Since it undercut his "moral values" pedigree. Does anyone who is not a comedian even think Donald Trump has a moral pedigree? It's a pretty good bet that 2024 is going to confirm that Donald Trump is an evil lying narcissist. While Joe Biden may not be a saint, I have a strong hunch he will look very "not criminal" by comparison.

Hard to believe it was over 30 years ago. I had just moved to Portland. Which is where the film was set, as you know. Gus Van Sant was a groundbreaker. Drugstore Cowboy was another one of his great early films. And, yes, that scene was remarkably tender, and sweet, and also sad. Probably the best part of a very good movie. Although there is also that brief memorable moment on the motorcycle. But only because Keanu looked so incredibly pretty. 😍

This is moving off Spacey. But it seems like just about everything that could be said about him has been said. This is about US public opinion. Although it aligns with what you are saying about Canada. The Democratic Party Left vs. the Center If you have not followed Teixeira, he was co-author, with John Judis, of The Emerging Democratic Majority back in 2003. The fact that he moved from being a liberal saying there was light at the end of the tunnel during the W/Iraq War era to being a liberal on the outs with "cultural leftism" does illustrate how much the Democratic Party has changed. Personally, I view it as a nice problem. Twenty years ago, Democrats were out of power. Now we have to be careful about losing power. Because what Teixeira calls cultural leftists do push hard and do turn the center off. That essay covers a lot of hot button culture war issues, as is typical for him. But trans issues, and especially medical treatment issues, are always front and center in the culture war. And I have no doubt Teixeira's polling is right. The issue he most focuses on is that this turns off White working class voters without college degrees, who are more aligned with the Democratic Party on issues I'd call economic populism - support for unions, tax the rich more, help the working class more. But Teixeira focuses just as much on moderate Hispanic, Black and Asian voters who are turned off by what they see as extremes. There's obviously a big difference between the 1990's, when you couldn't even be Gay and go die for your country, and today, when you can be married to a man and in the military. The issue now is whether the government should pay for your gender-affirming care. It's a nice problem in the sense that that what used to be viewed as extreme in the 1990's in now mainstream. That is a moving and also sad profile of what it was like for you, @forky123. I'm glad that's behind us, too. The only quarrel I have with Teixeira is how much these extremes are actually "Democratic" positions. He left a left-of-center think tank where he felt unwelcome, in order to join the right-of-center American Enterprise Institute. Which he felt was more open to broad debate. If he is talking about think tank circles in DC or Twitter "activists," I am quite sure he is right that they think they speak for the Democratic Party. But a lot of those moderates in his polls are Democrats. He is right that if Democrats want power we should be worried about pushing them away. This is, by the way, why I started a thread called "Have The Gays Gone Too Far?" To provoke a reaction. My answer is NO, I don't think we have gone too far, in general. I don't think same sex marriage or Gays in the military was going too far. Although many saw it that way at the time. There is no question that on some of these issues, like gender-affirming care, a small group of activists are feeding fuel into the culture war in a way that could backfire badly. Recall that "Gays in the military" was seen by most as a contributing factor to the massive electoral backlash in the 1994 midterms. Which led Clinton to moderate, which pissed off lots and lots of Gays. The good news to me is that nothing like that happened in 2022. That said, I strongly agree with Teixeira. He was right about getting the Democratic majority he wanted. And he is right again about how "cultural leftism" could sabotage it. We now return you to your regularly scheduled debate about groping and unwanted sexual advances. 😉

We agree on all the main points. I want to make sure what I said regarding the LGBTQ community is clear. I'll be brief. I started that other thread on being a queer actor today to separate different things. There is plenty of evidence that even if you are young, wildly hot, wildly popular, and Gay, it is STILL hard to come out as a queer actor in 2023. Getting better. But the people in the spotlight still obviously worry about ruining their career. Or protecting their privacy. Or both. So, like I said on the other thread, I think it is perfectly understandable that Spacey did not come out in the 1990's, when fame came to him. There's no reason to think he would have had it any easier than Gays in the military, at that time. I think the most positive way to say it is that coming out is not one size fits all. It is different for everyone. The specifics with Spacey is that he was also outed. But not because he was Gay and had a husband. Because he was Gay and was being accused of being a serial predator. It was that particular combination that put Spacey in a unique place that no other Gay actor I can think of who came out, or has been outed, has been in. I think organizations like GLAAD, which I cited above, were honest and fair. First, we empathize with you as a Gay man. Second, all these allegations are a completely separate matter from being Gay. But I agree with you that that some of the intolerant positions that what I'll call "Twitter Gays" - is it X Gays now? - have taken, like on queer baiting, are outside of the mainstream values - like tolerance and privacy - that most big LGBTQ organizations champion. That's the key point to me. We completely agree. It's over. Hopefully in a decade when fans learn actors they like are Gay, it will be as normal as simply assuming they are Straight. And won't even need to be discussed.

Will Chardonnay do? 😉 I agree with you, if we are talking about horse race polls. The fact that Trump and Biden are tied, despite the fact that most people are negative about the economy, is a bit encouraging to me. As I said, I don't think Trump can do much better, since he never has. I do think Biden can do better. Again, because he has. I think you agree. I double checked and my memory is correct. About a year before they were re-elected, polls showed Reagan losing to Mondale, Clinton losing to Dole by 9 points, and Obama losing to Romney. In Fall 1982 6 in 10 Americans said Reagan should not seek a second term. Does this sound in the least bit familiar? That's from June 2011. So much for horse race polls How unpopular is Joe Biden? The job approval and favorability polls are what worries me. The rule of thumb is that any incumbent under 50 % is potentially in trouble. I underlined the word potentially. I like that 538 page because it compares where Biden is now to where every other POTUS who has been polled was at the same time. And where they ended up. So right now Biden's favorability is ahead of where one POTUS was: Carter, who lost. He is tied with another POTUS who lost, Trump. He is 3 points behind where Obama and Reagan were at the same time. And 6 points behind where Clinton was at the same time. I think favorability numbers now matter, because they almost always change slowly. So by this point in their first term the favorability ratings for Obama, Reagan, and Clinton, as well as the economies they governed, were all at least starting to recover. And by election day all three of them ended up at 50 % favorability, or higher. That's not happening with Biden, yet. At some point, but not yet or even soon, Biden just runs out of time. And I know I am being schizo. And I am drinking Chardonnay. Because for somewhat different reasons than you, Alan Lichtman would agree that polls are of utterly no use. Period. Since I think Lichtman is right, both in his broad theory and in fact, I guess I should not care about polls. But if I go with Lichtman and forget about polls, it leads me to the same place: it's the economy, stupid. I know I have posted this multiple times, but it's my gold standard. Alan has predicted every race since 1984 correctly, in advance. Some people think the whole theory is bullshit. Other seize on one part of it and argue, "This time is different." But, so far, every time he is right. So in case that chart looks complicated, I'll decode it quickly and easily. History says if the economy is good, it is almost impossible for Biden/Harris to lose. The key number above is having 6 false keys. That's when the party in power (in this case Democrats) lost the Presidency every time going back to the Civil War. So far, Biden has 3 false keys. 1) Democrats lost seats in the midterm ("party mandate"). 2) He does not have a foreign policy success. 3) He is not charismatic. Which Lichtman defines as some like Ike, or Reagan in 1984, or Obama in 2008, who can win a landslide by transcending partisan divides. Based on what is happening right now, let's add a few more false keys. Republicans could impeach Biden. There could be a No Labels third party run that gets over 5 % of the vote. That's 5 false keys. Still not enough to toss out Biden, if history is a guide. As long as Biden has the economy on his side. Realistically, the only thing on that list that could add a 6th and fatal key against Biden is a military defeat. Presumably in Ukraine. Vlad is working hard on that. But I'm skeptical he can pull it off. Again, all of this is premised on the idea that we're not in a recession, and the economy is growing. I put up that chart again because this is precisely why I'm not a fan of the idea of replacing Biden through a bitter, contested Democratic primary. Again, Democrats are currently down 3 keys. If the candidate is not the incumbent, and she is nominated through a divisive primary, Democrats lose two more keys. That's 5. Meaning nothing else can go wrong. Add an impeachment of Biden, or a third party candidate that gets over 5 % of the vote, and a shitty economy, and Democrats have 9 keys against them. The last time that happened was 2008. History says that instead of Biden winning in a landslide as Veep, he would lose in a landslide as POTUS. I've seen interviews were people argue this theory may be right, in general. But this time is different on some key point. Specifically, a lot of people clearly feel in 2024 that if it would be better for Democrats if the incumbent did not run. And we instead had a contested primary. Even if it is divisive. What we know for a fact is that two years before he won in one of the biggest landslides ever, 60 % of Americans said Reagan should not seek another term. Turns out that was less about Reagan, and more about the economy, stupid. Lichtman has already said that unless there is some dramatic change in Biden's health, he thinks age will prevent him from winning in 2024 about as much as it prevented Reagan from winning in 1984. To make it even simpler, there are only three instances in that chart above when the overall economy sucked, and both economic keys worked against the incumbent party: 1992, 2008, 2020. In all three cases, the incumbent party lost. Even when the incumbent POTUS (like W. in 2008) was not running. Which is why I think it's the economy, stupid. Not Biden or Harris or age or race.

Damn! I feel so embarrassed. I just assumed he was talking about my penis. Sometimes I forget that I am posting, and not reading old reviews. 😉 Seriously, I do feel a bit vindicated. Because I have never liked Twitter, and never had an account on it. Too easy to promote endless brief lies and shallow thinking. I'm hoping it is falling out of fashion. In this article on "queer baiting," Harry Styles appropriately targeted Twitter and said this:

We agree. Nicely, and succinctly, stated. I'll add some thoughts. Of course. 😉 I reread that list of 30 men above. We don't know whether the main point for most of them was legal action, including wanting Spacey jailed. Even if they had wanted that, they might have felt it would involve time, money, and reopening old wounds. And that they were the types of cases that have been hard to prove in the past. And still are. There is at least one allegation that involved "attempted rape," made by someone who is anonymous. Most of the allegations relate to "unwanted sexual advances" or groping. By guys who were, in at least some cases, being casual with him, or drinking with him, or possibly flirting - at least in his eyes, perhaps. There is a difference between being a gross man, and being a criminal. I think that factors in. One big lesson to Gay celebrities is "Don't be gross." That may sound silly. But it was THE takeaway from the Franken affair for every politician in America. I remember reading some article I found helpful, about some woman who wanted a photo with Franken at the state fair and felt he touched her inappropriately. Like his hand was on her butt. Some other Minnesota politician was quoted as saying something like this, going from memory: "Whenever a constituent asks me to take a photo, I am always very verbal and very explicit. I ask, May I put my arm around your shoulder for the purpose of taking a photo?" Joe Biden obviously didn't learn that lesson growing up. But even he has learned. 😉 I Googled "Gay celebrities accused of rape or sexual assault." Happily, I got nothing Gay. I did get lots of lists of male celebrities who have been accused. Here's one. As far as I know, Spacey is the only one who is Gay. 29 of the 30 are Straight. Just to show how making assumptions can be wrong, I thought one of them sure looked Gay. Nope. As soon as I Googled it, he's Straight. Here's my point. From rereading some of the articles from five years ago, it is clear that one reason Spacey caused a huge LGBTQ backlash is that he chose not to come out before. Which is his choice, of course. But when he did come out, it at least appeared to be that "I'm Gay" was somehow meant to explain or generate sympathy in the context of a whole bunch of allegations. All of which went to the core of every trope used against Gay men forever. We are pedophiles. We groom children. We can't control ourselves. In retrospect, it's perhaps a good thing he didn't come out. Because no prominent out Gay celebrity in the US, to my knowledge, has actually been accused of any of these things. If anything, it should help the world welcome Gay celebrities who just want to live normal and mostly private lives with their partners and families. Like most Straight celebrities do. Meanwhile, no one is compiling a list of Gay celebrities who hire escorts. Or Gay celebrities who go to Thailand to have sex with men. Mostly, no one gives a shit. And if they do, it is none of their fucking business.

I know I will post things with a whole bunch of points. So this one I'll focus on one point, which is repeating a point I made above. ‘Red, White & Royal Blue’ Sex Scenes Are Fueled by ‘Voracious and Animalistic’ Desire, Says Star Nicholas Galitzine The British actor stars in the LGBTQ rom-com with Taylor Zakhar Perez That is his interview with a Gay Variety writer. There's an audio version which is worth a listen. I view it as a nice contribution to this discussion about "queer baiting." He is right that it is a sensitive issue, and it should be openly discussed. This is an assumption on my part. But it assumes intelligence and empathy. I assume Galitzine and the director, Lopez, who he mentions, had to discuss this before the interview. So in addition to the fictional characters in the book and movie sending these really positive, welcome, tolerant, and queer-affirming messages around the world, the actors who play them seem to be doing the same. Galitzine is doing it overtly, it seems. It's of course possible that the question of whether Nick is a Straight actor playing a Gay role just happened to be asked by a well known reporter, who just happens to be Gay. But I strongly suspect this was written into the script, wisely. I'll speculate a little more. Galitzine seems more like the character he played in Handsome Devil than in RWRB. He was less experienced, and not as good an actor. He seems like a jock who likes rugby and doesn't wear his sexuality on his sleeve, whatever it is. Which is fine. He will not be the first or last handsome Straight actor who advances his career by playing Gay men. His career is now at a point where he can get just about any role he wants, probably. But I won't complain if he plays more Gay men. And if there is not an RWRB sequel, I will be extremely pissed. He does at least owe that to The Gays, regardless of how challenging it is for him to be outed on film. Or adored by millions, in real life. 😉 Taylor, ironically, has the opposite problem. Can a hot Gay boy play a hot Bi boy and still have a career? Right now, it's looking good. And so is Taylor, of course!

"Outed" may or may not even be the right word. Which goes back to my main point: I think we are just beginning to figure out how to talk about this. As a one liner, since I know I tend to go long and hard, I'm thrilled that we have a hot Gay actor who was cast in a beloved queer role. 🙂 That said, I've enjoyed watching Straight Nick in every Gay role he has played. 🙂 This website is the one I've been following, and where somebody posted that photo. Along with probably thousands of others. That thread started in 2020, circa Kissing Booth 2. I became aware of it around when RWRB hit. I think it was maybe 50 pages long then. I found it precisely because I was curious about whether he is Gay. And a Google search led me there. There's a thread on Nicholas Galitzine on that website, also. Which has an interesting discussion about "queer baiting" where people go back and forth. There's at least a few other websites that I ended up looking at, because somebody put a hyperlink on LPSG to some other lively, and sometimes nasty, fan discussion. I can't remember the name, but one website had hundreds of thousands of members and had a logo that said something like, "Celebrities are expendable. The gossip is precious." The thing that came closest to "outing" is somebody posted some of these pictures and videos on TikTok. Which seemed to make it incredibly clear that Taylor is Gay or Bi, and married to a man. That was removed by Tik Tok, but only after tens of thousands of other people viewed it. On the website I linked there has been a lively discussion about how Taylor's Chinese fans have been uncovering his entire social media history. And speculating about whether a fairly homophobic country will accept him more easily because he is married to a guy of Chinese origin. So the horse is out of the barn, without Taylor's consent. Which is I think what happened with Polo Marin. Although his somehow involved a masturbation video, which I'm guessing many of Taylor's fans wouldn't mind having been included with the package. 🙄 But I think 100 % of the content is something Taylor posted somewhere at some time. It was not hacked, as it was with Morin (and Taylor's character in RWRB). I went through that in detail to illustrate the issue, circa 2023. I'm not sure it counts as "outing" when fans are speculating about you on websites. Which then quickly includes pictures or videos you posted years ago, when you were nobody. Before you deleted or archived them because you cared whether somebody might reach conclusions based on pictures like the ones above. Problem is, somebody saved it on their hard drive, and reposts it, if I understand what is happening. You can also argue that it is the Gay actor's fault, because he never should have posted anything anywhere. There's a reason why a lot of people are very careful about what they post, because it could later impact their career. But it is a different world than the one Noel Coward was living in, when he could perhaps more easily choose not to be seen as Gay. I know how I feel about this. I think it's silly to argue fans should not, or will not, speculate. Or course they will. And of course every fashion or glamour magazine in the world will feed the speculation, to make money. So my view is don't blame it on me, or fans, or Taylor. I think the thing that needs to be talked about is the system as it is. And how it might work better for LGBTQ actors trying to make it, but also trying to be honest and out. I hope "queer baiting" is quickly becoming seen as a problem, not a solution. I also thing "fandom" is a two way street. I can relate to it easily as a past escort. There are lots of escorts who keep many secrets about many celebrities, Gay or Straight, they had sex with. So if the idea is that, simply as a fan of Taylor's, I have to spend the next 20 years hearing him talk about how he wishes Joey King would date him, I guess I can live with that. I think it would be better if he could just say he went to Joey's wedding, not as the groom. And he brought his husband with him. As I said above, Luke Macfarlane could come out in 2008 knowing that being honest with his fans would not ruin his career. Because his fans would accept the truth. And maybe also admire his honesty. Kevin Spacey did NOT feel that way in the 1990's. And I don't blame him for that. It's a work in progress. Taylor, like Kit O'Connor and Polo Morin before him, is going through a trial by fire, whether he chose to or not. And all these guys have millions of fans globally, not all of whom are queer, who probably now love them even more. I would not argue it helps their career. Or that it isn't hell on earth for them for a while. But this is not the Hollywood Kevin Spacey rose in. It's at least somewhat better. Some Gays feel RWRB is mediocre Hallmark fluff with Marvel dialogue. I fell in love with it. In part because the director and writer, Matthew Lopez, seems spot on about almost everything. He said something about how he cast the characters to be a little older than in the book because he wanted them to be at an age where they could confront these private issues publicly in an adult manner. I think that accurately reflects how this is actually playing out in real life. Kit O'Connor, at 18, was pissed about being forced to say anything about himself so soon. Polo Marin was in his mid-20s, and was clearly torn between wanting to come out and not wanting to ruin his career. Macfarlane, and I think a lot of America's top Gay actors, tended to come out and find their partners in their 20's or 30's. Taylor is 31. I'm thrilled that younger queer actors have choices that Spacey and others of his generation did not feel they had.

Interesting that all the likely Plan B's are from California. The betting averages RCP posts suggest that the most likely Democratic nominee, if it's not Biden, is my Guv, Gavin Newsom. It's not clear how that would happen, since he just said there is no chance that's gonna happen. Of course, they always say that. I like watching Bill Kristol's interviews. He is an inside player who clearly talks off the record with lots of very smart politicos. So I believe him when he says behind the scenes lots of Democrats will say that they wouldn't mind if neither Biden nor Harris were the nominee. But here's the thing, they say: how do you actually make that happen? The only way of course is Biden and Harris would both have to agree not to run. Which is a little bit like saying that maybe Trump and DeSantis will decide not to run and somebody like Nikki Haley will be nominated. Don't hold your breath. I can see two scenarios where Biden is not the nominee. The most obvious and likely one is he dies, or almost dies and has to resign. As you said, Plan B is Veep becomes POTUS. The interesting question then is, would someone like Newsom run against Harris, assuming there was time to do so? I would not bet on it. The polls say in a competitive primary, she'd beat anyone. Including Michelle Obama, who btw says she has zero interest in being POTUS. There would be a lot of public pressure to rally behind the new POTUS and let her focus on her day job. Privately, the same politicos that gossip with Kristol would be saying our best chance of winning is to rally behind her. Rather than have a divisive primary loaded with questions about whether people think Harris is not up to the job simply because she's a Black woman. It's interesting that everybody speculates about whether Trump will end up in jail, and nobody speculates about whether he will end up in a coffin by next year due to a heart attack. He'd seem to be a candidate for that, as well as Biden. If I assume Biden dies or can't run and Harris is POTUS and the nominee, I think that could be exciting. Immediately, age is an advantage for Democrats, who are presumably running against Trump. Yes, people will say Kamala Harris is not up to the job. That looks different when the alternative is Trump. Whose problem is that 53 % or so of Americans are horrified by the idea of putting him back in a job they never wanted him to have in the first place. The cherry on the icing on the cake for me, in this situation, would be name some like Gretchen Whitmer Veep. It obviously helps in Michigan. It adds experience to the ticket. And I think it would be a thrilling alternative to Trump. It would be like the female version of Clinton/Gore in 1992. Two younger figures that reinforce this dynamic image. And I also include it because Bill Clinton, like Harris, is someone who many Democrats thought was a problem that would lead us to disaster if nominated. It also solves the Hunter Biden problem. Kick his sorry little ass out of the White House permanently. I'm guessing Republicans would immediately lose interest in his art, bank accounts, guns, and past drug addictions. All that said, I still go back to the economy, stupid. If Harris is POTUS, she's still running on the incumbent Administration's record. The economy is the main thing dragging both her and Biden's approval ratings down. There is no getting around it. Which is why they are at least trying to turn it into a positive. Time will tell. Which leads me to the other Plan B I can see for Democrats. Assume by the end of 2023 the economy is tipping into recession, but despite that gas prices are on the rise again. The S & P tanks and is back to 3500, or lower. If we really want to speculate and channel 1968, assume Biden can't even get 50 % of the vote in the New Hampshire primary. RFK, Jr. humiliates the sitting President by nearly beating him with 42 % of the vote. That's the kind of situation where I could remotely imagine Biden and Harris being begged privately to step aside, for the good of the party. Like in 1968, it probably would not end well for Democrats. I love to worry. But these circumstances are so remote that I don't plan to spend time worrying about it.

Be a sweetie, and let's say we round it up to 40 %? Okay? 🙂 Since you want to talk math, I have a comment and then a math question. I'd love you to tell me how you think Trump wins. I'll go first. The comment is that I didn't start this thread to criticize Biden. Or to suggest he should not be the nominee. I started it because I think the economy is the reason Biden could lose. I'll cite Clintonista Democratic strategist Doug Sostik, who recently told this to errant Never Trump Republican Bill Kristol. If the 2024 election is about the economy, Trump has a strong case, he thinks. If it is about whether people want more crazy, Biden wins. Sostik said he thinks the 2020 and 2022 elections came down to whether people wanted more crazy. And both times Democrats did well. Asked what 2024 was more likely to be about, he said he thinks Trump will be the nominee. Which will make it about whether people want more crazy. Again. So Biden wins. I'm guessing you disagree. I know what the polls about Biden running again say. But it's not about whether Biden tops the ticket to me. It's about the economy, stupid. And, more narrowly, the inflation, stupid. What solves the economy problem, like with senile old Reagan in 1983, is if people feel the economy improves. So far Biden is selling. But the people he needs ain't buying, yet, as those articles I posted make clear. So here's my question. Right now Trump and Biden are exactly the same in the RCP favorability averages, 56 % unfavorable and 40 % favorable. Ain't that sweet? They're like two peas in pod. 😉 Even so, an overwhelming majority of Americans don't want a Trump/Biden rematch. So who do you think is more likely to be able to overcome that 40 % number, and win a majority or plurality? Trump or Biden? Call me biased, but I think Biden. Simply based on the math. I'll lay out my case, and you tell me yours. As you can see from that poll, Trump has never been viewed favorably by any more than 45 % of Americans. If we go by his approval ratings as POTUS, the very highest he reached, for a matter of weeks, was 47 %. He lost in 2020 by 46.8 % of the vote. So something like 47 % seems to be his hard limit. I can see one clear way to change that: by making Donald Trump NOT be Donald Trump. Which is what sucks about these trials, in particular. When Republicans line up to testify next year about how they told Trump he lost the election, or Mar A Lago employees detail how Trump ordered them to obstruct the FBI, Independents will be thinking, "Yup. Sounds like crazy Trump to me." Biden won with 51.3 % of the vote in 2020. Until about August 2021, his approval rating was over 50 %. Did I mention that his approval rating crashed below 50 % right around when inflation crashed above 5 %? Did I mention his approval rating hit bottom in mid-2022, when inflation peaked? Biden' average approval rating was 37 % then and 42 % now, according to RCP. Hence, whether I go by the poll numbers or what real people in those articles say, it's very clearly the inflation stupid. And the economy, stupid. So you can see where the math is headed, @Moses. Trump's chances of cracking 47 % for the first time since .................. NEVER! ........................ is pretty low. But if inflation continues to subside and the economy continues to improve, Biden has more than a 0 % chance of seeing his approval ratings improve. 50 % of Americans could vote for him, and did, not that long ago. Why might his ratings improve? The economy can and does change. Trump can't and won't change. Trump may be criminal, but he's not stupid. I think he knows that to win, it helps to run in a split field. Both in the primary and general. In 2016, Trump did worse than Romney in 2012 (47.2 %) or Trump in 2020 (46.8 %). He barely did better than McCain in 2012 (45.7 %). The reason 46.1 % was enough to win in 2016 was a relatively strong third party candidate, and the electoral college in the Rust Belt. So in addition to a weak economy, or a recession, Trump has to be hoping somebody like Manchin runs. I don't think Cornell West does it. But a recession and a No Labels third party candidate that could maybe get 5 % of the vote would open up a whole new MAGAverse. Vlad would love it, I'm sure. That's my scenario. What's your scenario? How do you see Trump winning when 53 % of Americans never have and never will vote for him?