stevenkesslar

One thing I really appreciate about @Moses and @EmmetK is that, even if we disagree about policy, they are always factually correct. For example, there was no caravan crisis when Trump was President. Had there been, he might have been fired. But this caravan crisis that exists under Senile Stupid Corrupt Lazy Joe "Piece Of Shit" Biden just didn't exist under Donald "I'm A Genius" Trump. That's just a fact. Migrant caravans restart as pandemic deepens the humanitarian crisis at the US-Mexico border Published: October 6, 2020 One of the truly remarkable things about Donald "I'm A Genius" Trump's leadership of the US was that everything was calm at the border. There were rules, and everyone followed them. People just need to be reminded that in October 2020, as that headline says, there were no caravans. There was no border crisis. Even Mexicans, especially Moms with kids, praised the fair and compassionate way Donald "I'm A Genius" Trump managed the border. This is why Donald "I'm A Genius" Trump won re-election overwhelmingly in 2020. Only lying and unethical Democrats (and a few demented Independents) buy this bullshit about how Senile Stupid Corrupt Lazy Joe "Piece Of Shit" Biden won. Trump won by more votes than any leader on any planet in the entire universe ever. That's just a fact. Once fairness and compassion is restored under Donald "I'm A Genius, Again" Trump, there is an obvious solution. First, we need the biggest mass deportation of illegal aliens, ever. Second, all these lying and un-American Democrats should be deported, too. And sent back to the shit holes they came from. What disgusts me even more is that these un-American Democrats don't even care about how raping, murdering Mexicans are killing our own kids with fentanyl. Under Donald "I'm A Genius" Trump, there was no drug problem. A fair and compassionate leader like Trump wouldn't let an ounce of that killer drug into the US. Much less the truckloads and barges that Senile Stupid Corrupt Lazy Joe "Piece Of Shit" Biden practically waves in. People just need to be reminded that before that senile old fart and his ignorant Black female Veep were in charge, we had no fentanyl problem in America. As that chart shows. That's just a fact. Just like we had no border crisis and no caravans in 2020 until the senile fart was elected. That's just a fact.

It's fun to watch how you deny every fact from every poster. including by posting graphics that mean nothing. Obviously this is not the place for a factual debate But here's an idea. Lets' swap places. Just for fun, I'll be you and defend the sadist butcher! Look! Every country in world love Russia. Every country in world buys oil from Russia and glorious economy. US love glorious leader of Russia. UK loves glorious leader of Russia. Germany loves glorious leader of Russia. This is a fact! Why do all these countries love glorious Russia and want to be like Russia? Because they love glorious Russian leader and want to be like vibrant and most powerful economy of whole world- Russia! it is a fact!

True, I wouldn't either. But Russia is a special place as far as being super fucked up. It is definitely where I'd want to live if I wanted to fall out of windows; fly in airplanes that explode; be tortured, jailed, or killed for having an opinion; or simply be turned into fertilizer. Nobody is a better butcher than you, Vlad! P.S. If I wanted to live somewhere that chops me into pieces I'd definitely want to like in that MBS dude's country though.

You should add Africa to your list of continents that thinks Putin is a butcher. At least Africa is where De Nile is. You should like it there. African sentiment is favouring Ukraine What part of "Africa doesn't like Russia and thinks Putin is a butcher" do you not understand. Most of the world does not want Russia to exist. Your unloved sadistic nation is probably going to fail and disintegrate.

We got facts. You've got dreams. Let's see. Is South Africa in Africa? I think so. They don't like you. The one country on that list that likes Russia in India. Because you sell them cheap shit. And Master Xi does not like his sadistic pit bull. HE LOVES HIM. Master Xi will buy as much cheap shit as his desperate little sadistic pit bull will sell. No doubt. The little murderous pit bull will no doubt survive for years as he weakens Russia. As long as he stays on Master Xi's leash, and doesn't fuck things up too much. Master Xi could give a shit how many hundreds of thousands of Russians die. We all know Master Xi looks down on his mongrel pit bull and his people, anyway. He's just using you. If you like being on Master Xi's leash and being used, good for you. I'm happy for you.

You can pick any number you want, @Moses. But this is the point of that poll. This is why the world views Russia as this awful place they want to go bye bye, with this sadistic butcher they wish were dead. They want your country to not exist. And it's probably about a 50/50 chance that Russia won't exist in a decade. Enjoy it while it lasts. Nobody admires Russia for wanting to butcher men, woman, and children and depopulate a country. They want Russia to go bye bye as quickly as possible. That is Putin's legacy for all time. You're fucked. Yeah, you can kill lots of men, women, and children in the meantime. And sit back and gloat as hundreds of thousands of Russians die. But Russia is fucked in a way it does not even begin to understand. You are doing a great job giving voice to the desperation and denial.

Russia is the most fucked place on the planet. Most people don't even want it to exist. Most people don't want Putin to exist. Most people wish this whole part of the world called Russia could just be flushed down the toilet. Putin's legacy is that people all over the world will think of Russians and Russia as this fucked up murderous mess. Nobody needs it. Nobody wants it. Everyone wants Putin dead and Russia to no longer exist. Will people buy real cheap shit from Russia? Sure. So we have the US stock market at all time highs, racing to lead AI. We have a China that is economically weak, but still leading in many technological areas, like from supersonic fighter jets to electric cars. Russia is leading the world in guns, butchering people, and turning their men into fertilizer. Putin has distorted and warped their economy. Russia's economy now depends on selling cheap shit and killing hundreds of thousands of Russians. If they grow 3 % for a year, so what? We all still think they suck, and we want them to be weak or dead. They're fucked to a level they do not even realize. RUSSIA Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years Most people on the planet want Russia to go bye bye. This is an extremely harsh verdict that is reserved for few countries in history. But Russia is there. People all across the planet want Putin dead, and Russia dead. They literally want Russia not to exist. And it is quite likely that in the next decade that will happen. You can already see this in the difference between the invasions of Iraq by the US and Afghanistan by either the US and USSR. In all three of those cases, it at least looked like the invader won for a while. They did take over the government and the army, for a while. Putin has been humiliated from Day One. He can't take over the government, army, or people of Ukraine. Sure, he's a big strong guy. His soldiers can rape women and kill children before they are killed themselves. But that's not winning a war. Putin's big victory right now is that Ukraine could not make him lose in 2023. That's it. If anyone thinks that a ratio of 3 Russians to 1 Ukrainian makes it inevitable Putin will win, why didn't that happen in Afghanistan or Iraq? Putin is fucked, and Russia is fucked. What is happening right now is NOT why Putin will win. It is why the future breakup of Russia is accelerating.

That's all true. The worst case scenario is no funding for Ukraine from the US, for a while at least, and Trump wins in November 2024. I agree. That said, I stand by what I said. I don't think Ukraine will give up. I guess the furthest I would go is that Putin is able to take a few more provinces. But the bad news for Putin is that any "win," just like in Afghanistan and Iraq, sets the stage for more bloodbath. I just down see Americans say, "Geez, wouldn't it be nice if a butcher like Putin ruled the world and killed us." The action is always in the reaction. Just like when Putin invaded Ukraine in the first place. I think the US, and especially Trump, can help Putin by making it easy for him to be a sadistic butcher. But no matter how fucked up the US is, and how awful Trump is, I don't think the US or Trump can make Putin win or Ukraine lose. No matter what, Ukrainians will be doing everything they can to kill as many Russians as they can. And this will continue to warp Russia's economy. EU vows Ukraine will get its money — with or without Orbán’s support Leaders are willing to bust Europe’s hallowed unity if that’s what it takes to send cash to Kyiv. If it were up to me, I would say of course the US will be Ukraine's biggest funder. That is the image I would want the US to have in the world. But if it turns out even Biden and McConnell can't get their way, it is not the worst thing in the world that Europe has to lead the effort to stand up to Putin, at least for a while. Vast majority of Europeans see Russia as an adversary, poll finds On average, two-thirds of the people polled across 10 European countries consider Russia as a rival to their own country. That's a massive change from a decade ago. Europeans see Putin as a butcher and Russia as a country the want to weaken. The country in the world most likely to implode in the next decade is Russia. They're fucked. Support for US Commitment to NATO at 48-Year High That poll is a year old. But I don't think much has changed. 90 % of Democrats and 3 in 4 Independents and Republicans support maintaining or increasing support for NATO. The notion that NATO or the US or the EU are just gonna roll over and let Master Xi's pit bull win is ridiculous. Ain't gonna happen. Even if Trump is elected. Which I don't think is gonna happen, either. That

Ukrainian corruption? That's a good one!

Duh! The Ukrainians. That's obvious. Except to you, meathead. But there is more good news for you, my dear. Hannibal can't eat your brain, either. Because I have made the point about manpower several times. And either you're in deep denial. Or you are maybe kind of brainless. 🤪 1979: Soviet Union invades Afghanistan. Afghan population: 13 million. USSR population: 262 million Population ratio: 20 to 1 favoring Soviet Union Winner of conflict: Afghanistan 1994: Chechen war begins Chechnya population: 1.2 million Russia population: 148 million Population ratio: 125 to 1 favoring Russia Winner of conflict: Russia 2001: United States invades Afghanistan Afghan population: 20 million US population: 285 million Population ratio: 14 to 1 favoring United States Winner of conflict: Aghanistan 2003: United states invades Iraq Iraq population: 27 million US population: 292 million Population ratio: 11 to 1 favoring United States Winner of conflict: Iraq 2022: Russia invades Ukraine Ukraine population: 44 million Russia population: 143 million Population ratio: 3 to 1 favoring Russia Winner of conflict: Take a guess? You are so deeply in denial and so allergic to any fact that forces you to confront reality that you had to misrepresent population. Just like you totally misrepresented Putin's budget, to hide how he is bleeding your economy, your schools, and your hospitals dry. But even if I give you the 6 to 1 ratio implied by your bogus Ukraine population of 25 million, you are still deeply fucked. Even when Putin really got going in 1999, it took a couple years and mass slaughter and bombardment to mostly pacify Chechnya. And that was a separatist conflict in your own country, where Chechnya was basically on its own. The Afghanistan conflict is much closer to this bloodbath. But all the metrics say Russia should be doing worse. And it is. It's much more of a fair fight, just in terms of manpower. Ukraine turned into a quagmire for Russia much quicker. Almost immediately. So you're up to your old sadistic tricks of massive bombardment and slaughter and depopulation. But it ain't working any better. In Afghanistan, you didn't have 50 or so well organized nations arming a standing national army. Now you do. Which explains why it is vastly more effective to turn Russians into fertilizer. Whether they are some poor schmuck who got drafted, or an honored Russian general. No wonder Putin is desperate to bleed Russia dry, in every way, to at least try to appear to win. Or just have a stalemate. The person who makes your argument best - better than you - is Mearsheimer. His argument is that the country with more soldiers and more weapons win. But it is obviously not that simple. If there is any simple formula here, it's that if you are going to invade another country, or even put down a separatist rebellion, you better have a 100 to 1 force ratio. And a lot of time and money. And a lot of men who either want to fertilizer, or have no choice. Good luck, dear. You'll need it. And try to be safe out there.

You're welcome. You keep making my argument. My point is that kind of thinking in the US led to four things: 1) dead Americans, 2) dead Iraqis, 3) global humiliation and weakening of the US, 4) Donald Trump, as a reaction. So that was all very, very, very bad news for the US. And the world, I think. And as an opponent of the Iraq War from Day One, I completely agree with you. I'd even give you a hug. Or let you spank me. Except I'm afraid you might turn me into fertilizer. 😯 What's remarkable is that even though Russia has a smaller population than the US, a weaker military, and about 50 nations are flooding arms to Ukraine, somehow you think you are going to outperform the US. You're in total denial. Russia's fate will be the same, but far worse. But Putin's overconfidence and reckless spending is good news. It's just a set up for Russia to lose. I'd say Putin is spending like a drunk sailor. But it's more like he's spending like a dead sailor. I'm sorry so many Russians will have to die, thanks to Putin's sadism and overconfidence. And Putin has far outperformed W. on sadism, rape, torture, child killing, and every measure of horror imaginable. Maybe even cannibalism. As of 2021 4500 US and allied troops were killed in Iraq. Russian "meat" is at least 10 times that number, in your own words. Probably in the hundreds of thousands, if your butcher was honest about how many Russians he has gotten killed so far. And even if we take the number 500,000 dead Iraqis over the course of a few decades, Putin is doing a much better job of killing Ukrainians. There's another huge difference that is very bad news for Russia, even if we assume Putin "wins." Remember, the US "won" the Iraq War. Before it all went to hell. The number of Iraqis actually killed by US and allied troops is, at most, in the tens of thousands, by every count Wikipedia lists. So the vast majority of civilian deaths in Iraq were caused by criminal gangs or terrorists like ISIS. You can blame the US for opening Pandora's box. But we didn't burn people on alive on video. Russia has definitely opened Pandora's box. But Ukrainians won't be killing each other. They'll be killing Russians, happily, forever. As long as Russians are in Ukraine, including Crimea, they now basically all have a sign that says "I am fertilizer" hanging over their heads. Russia Withdraws Black Sea Fleet Vessels From Crimea Base After Ukrainian Attacks Pullout represents painful setback for the Kremlin, which seized Crimea in 2014 I think the majority of Americans, like me, will follow the lead of Ukraine. But at least to me it would be good news if the battle lines froze. And Ukrainians stopped being slaughtered trying to make some Hollywood movie style breakthrough. It's clear that for every Russian in occupied Ukraine, there is at least one, and maybe as many as five, Ukrainians who will gladly kill them when they have a chance. Although if they are Russian big wigs, they'll have a cruise missile with their very own name on it. Imagine what ISIS could have done if 50 nations in North America, Europe, and Asia were flooding weapons to them to kill Americans? I think John Mearsheimer is probably right that Putin wouldn't want Kyiv or Lviv even if he could take it. It would make it so easy to kill so many Russians. Even a sadistic butcher like Putin might have a problem at home. Not to mention how much it would cost him. Which is clearly money Putin does not have. So even if Putin can explode his war/butchering budget and hold all his lines, it's just a question of whether Russian soldiers are bled out quickly, or slowly. And whether the Russian economy is bled out quickly, or slowly. Master Xi can keep his pit bull on a leash. And buy his cheap shit. But he can't stop that from happening. Not unless Master Xi really wants World War 3. Which he clearly doesn't. Unlike Putin, Xi doesn't seem to think it makes sense to kill lots of his own people. So I don't think you've even begun to realize the magnitude of how fucked Russia is. Enjoy your overconfidence, while it lasts.

Well, there is good news, @Moses. If Hannibal Lecter is Russian, he won't have many brains to eat. Because, thanks to Putin, there won't be many left. Come to think of it, if Putin is ever held accountable and loses his job, he could play an aging Hannibal in the sequel.

Again, everyone else has tuned out. And I am starting to. I get it. You want to blame "the West" for the fact that Ukraine wants to be free and democratic. You want to blame "the West" for the fact that Ukrainians don't want peace with a sadistic butcher. Because they don't trust a sadistic butcher who has raped their women, killed their children, and tortured and slaughtered their men. When a sadistic butcher invades Ukraine and creates a bloodbath, killing hundreds of thousands of Russians and Ukrainians, it is very important for you to insist that my hands are bloody. You may as well blame all 49 nations who are arming Ukraine. It is their fault for not wanting to make peace with a sadistic butcher. That is your argument. Thank you for illustrating what denial means. You of course don't understand this is why I know you will lose. I can tell you how this worked in America. But you won't get it. I remember a conversation with my own father, a World War 2 veteran, when the Iraq War was going really badly. He insisted we should keep fighting, so the Iraqi people had a chance at democracy. It was our version of the propaganda I am sure you (and now the Chinese) see on the news every day. I wasn't going to tell my Dad, "So, basically, you think we should continue the bloodbath, so that more Iraqi children are slaughtered." I loved and respected my Dad. So that was something I just wasn't going to say. But it helps explain why the US lost. Any why it took us a very long and bloody time to lose. So if you want to say the US has blood on our hands because of Iraq, help yourself. I agree. Now you are in the same position. if you want to be smug and overconfident about what a good job Russia is doing killing and raping and imposing hell on Ukraine, go ahead. Believe me, I get it. I watched my country do a version of this in Iraq. And we had way, way, way more military power than Putin has. So be overconfident. Be convinced you will win. Be proud of creating an unprovoked bloodbath. Celebrate all the raping and torturing and murdering. Rejoice at how many children your sadistic butcher has killed and kidnapped. I predicted that is why the US would lose. And we did. Although we were nowhere near as sadistic. We didn't kidnap children, and intentionally bomb shelters where children were trying to survive. This is why Russia will lose. It's only a matter of how much time and death and horror it takes.

Thank you for confirming my point. This is sick. This is sadism. Putin will lose. If you had the vaguest clue how democracies and free nations work, you would understand this is precisely why the entire world will buy Putin's cheap stuff even as they organize his defeat. I feel very sorry for the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians who have been and will be turned into meat. But that's the point. Russia is not a democracy, and it is not free. So your sadistic butcher will turn as many Russians into meat as he needs to. And you seem to be proud of it.

Gotcha. I've actually learned a lot from this back and forth, since I am fact checking what you say. So thanks. But this debate is having diminishing returns. You basically want to take any marginal fact that is favorable to Russia you can find, like what Slovakia does, and argue that means you are winning. And then ignore everything else. What's more recent and far more important than Slovakia is what Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania just did to strengthen the NATO coalition. But I get it. You want to ignore all that and just pretend that what happens in Slovakia determines the outcome. In my country, we call it "grasping at straws." Go ahead. Dream. Deny.

Again, you want to have it both ways. Did the US completely fuck up in Iraq? Absolutely! I personally thought it would be a disaster. And it was a disaster. I'm more than willing to admit that and learn from it. You are in complete denial. But this explains why Putin will eventually lose. However long it takes. Ukraine is like Iraq on steroids. There were countries, like Germany, that pushed back against W's stupid idea of invading Iraq But they did not put together a global coalition to arm Iraqis to kill Americans. And yet, America - the strongest military power in the world - got its ass kicked anyway. Why? Because Iraqis hated Americans and wanted US and allied soldiers dead. There ya go. That's the before and after pictures of 4 dead Americans in Iraq who were turned into roasted meat. So if you follow your own logic, @Moses, this is what Putin's war/butchering economy is paying for. His butchering economy is paying to turn his own people into meat. You admit this yourself. You're almost proud of the fact that lots of Russian soldiers, who attacked Ukraine, are turning Ukrainians into meat and fertilizer before they are turned into meat and fertilizer themselves. This is why nobody likes Russia. This is why anyone who can get out of Russia is leaving. You have noticed Russia and the US have the opposite problem, right? The US has too many people trying to get in. In Russia, people are desperate to get out. Ever wonder why? The only good news for many of Russia's best and brightest - maybe up to 1 million - is they were able to get out before they were turned into barbeque. And this is something you're proud of?

Thanks. You are confirming all my points. This is why people hate Putin and Russia. This is why they would love it if someone turned Putin into fertilizer. This is why the whole world is organizing itself against Putin and Russia. This is why Russia is fucked. Is any part of what those people are saying, "We want to be like Russia. We want to be under the control of a sadistic butcher?" Nope. First, you are quoting marginal players. The Czech Republic is sending tanks and arms to Ukraine. That statement is vague. But he's basically saying, "Yup. Putin is a sadistic butcher. Ukraine taking on a sadistic butcher who is willing to sit back while hundreds of thousands of Russians are killed won't be easy." Blame that on Putin, not Ukraine. Fico has not been on Team Ukraine since long before the war started. Slovakia is not a major player. He doesn't want to send any arms to Ukraine. So he has a marginal position within the EU and NATO. So your argument is that one weak link in a strong chain determines the outcome. It's very weak logic, @Moses. But you are a desperate man and a desperate nation in denial. So go ahead. Dream on. Believe you are somehow winning. What we have for sure learned is that, in war, overconfidence will bite you in the ass. Russia learned that in 2022, and Ukraine learned that in 2023. So go on. Dream big, @Moses. Be overconfident. Go on the offensive. Its a good way to maximize the number of Russians that are killed, while your sadist butcher and his pals get richer and richer. Woo hoo! The top five suppliers of arms to Ukraine are the US, Germany, the UK, the EU, and Norway. You want to have it both ways, @Moses. You complained earlier in this thread that Boris Johnson encouraged Ukraine to fight. But that is exactly the point you are in total denial about. It's true. Ukraine wants to be a democracy free of your sadistic butcher. And the UK wants to help them. Boris kind of said, "Yes. Kill as many Russians as it takes." You do understand that, right? You're not blaming Ukraine for wanting to be free of your sadistic butcher, are you? Ukrainians are overwhelmingly ready and willing to kill as many Russians as it takes to be free and democratic. You do not understand that. You do not respect that. You are in denial. Russia is fucked. Ukraine is not alone. Look at this massive list of countries that are sending massive amounts of arms to Ukraine to kill Russians. You are surrounded by nations that are ready, willing, and able to see Russian soldiers killed - hundreds of thousands, millions - if that is what it takes to be democratic and free. You do not understand this. You do not respect it. You are in denial Russia is fucked. Why are 49 nations sending thousands of specific weapons systems - artillery, tanks, missiles - to Ukraine to kill as many Russian soldiers as it takes? Because they all hate Putin. ESPECIALLY the nations like Poland that used to be under the control of the USSR. The last thing they want is a sadistic butcher like Putin raping their women, killing their children, and turning their men into meat. So, yes. Please. Quote the head of a small European nation, who is at the very margin of the debate. All it proves is that you do not understand democracy. You do not understand everyone hates you. Everyone is committed to supporting Ukraine. Everyone will let Putin throw as many Russians into the meat grinder as needed if he insists on doing so. And eventually Putin will lose. And his war/butcher economy will be fucked. If you think Ukraine is going to make peace with a sadistic butcher, dream on. Putin himself has convinced the world that NO ONE wants to be his partner, or make peace with him. Except his Master, Xi, who keeps his pit bull on a leash. And everyone else, like India, will gladly buy cheap Russian stuff. As long as your sadist butcher is desperate for any money he can get to turn his own people into meat. It's sick. And he will lose.

You don't understand democracy. You don't understand free people don't want to be under the control of a sadistic butcher. So you would not even understand your question is the wrong question. The correct question is, "What was Ukraine thinking?" Ukraine was thinking they want democracy. Ukraine was thinking they want to be part of the EU. Ukraine was thinking they want to be part of NATO. Ukraine was thinking they don't want to be part of Russia. All those oblasts except Crimea and Sevastopol City voted overwhelming (over 80 %) that they don't want to be part of Russia. But you don't understand democracy and freedom, do you? You understand turning Ukrainians that resist your sadistic butcher into meat. Ukraine was thinking the same thing as: Czech Republic Hungary Poland Bulgaria Estonia Latvia Lithuania Romania Slovakia Slovenia Albania Croatia Montenegro North Macedonia Finland Sweden (soon) See the pattern, @Moses? No one wants to be part of Russia. Everyone wants security from Russia and the butcher sadist who runs it. They are looking at what your butcher sadist is doing and all saying, "That is horrible. We do not want anything to do with that butcher sadist. We want to be part of NATO. We want security from the butcher sadist. We want freedom. We do not want to be turned into fertilizer." So I agree with you that Ukraine may not be able to take back their country anytime soon. So the good news for Russia is that they get to have lots of their people turned into fertilizer if they want to fight. Woo hoo! While your weak economy manages to survive and grow a little bit by turning your men into fertilizer. Woo hoo! Yup. Everyone in the world sure wants to be like Russia. You obviously have a superior economic and political model. 😉 But, hey. As long as your sadistic butcher stays on Master Xi's leash and sells Master Xi stuff for cheap, China will think you are inferior and stupid while they benefit. It's a great deal for China. Not for Russia. Sorry.

Nothing you're saying rebuts my points. Arguably, you confirmed them. I'm being very clear that Master Xi is using Putin and Russia as his sadistic pit bull to keep America and the world distracted from China. I have to assume the plan was for Putin to be able to get it up and pacify Ukraine. Which he could not, and can not. So, yes, absolutely. Master Xi is playing a game with his sadistic pit bull that he can continue, or abandon. But ALL China's major trading partners - other than Russia - are moving away from Russia and toward the US and/or NATO. The math is simple. Even if we factor in $200 billion, which is four times what that map above shows for past Russia-China trade, it's a fraction. If you gain one and lose a dozen, then you lost. The point you don't get or don't want to admit is that Putin is Master Xi's sadistic pit bull. That's not really a good way to be respected or admired. The best Putin can hope for is that he is feared. But the same fear is driving everyone away from Russia. And to some extent China. And, of course, India and other countries will happily buy Russia's cheap stuff. Fire sales never last forever. But as long as they last they are a beautiful thing. War in Ukraine Has China Cashing In That headline says it exactly right. There is absolutely no question that China benefits, both geopolitically and financially. Chinese car makers are making a fortune. Of course the Chinese people must love it that they can get cheap Russian stuff. Russia can, and is, using China and economic powerhouse North Korea (LOL) as a lifeline to keep a war/butchering/sadism economy going. Krazy Kim is more than happy to make money helping Putin turn Russians and Ukrainians into fertilizer. Sounds great for Russia, huh? If you think this makes Russia the leader of the world, dream on. But as long as Master Xi can keep his pit bull on a leash, and Putin distracts the US, and China gets cheap stuff, and it does not cause too much economic and geopolitical damage to China with the rest of the world, this absolutely benefits Master Xi. When that calculus changes, which it will, of course Master Xi will have to abandon his sadistic pit bull. He'll have no choice. The real choice could have been made maybe a decade ago. Like a decade ago NATO, Russia, and Ukraine could have agreed that Ukraine would be a peaceful bridge between Europe and Russia. A decade ago the US and EU could have decided to invest less in China, and get closer to Russia as a counterweight to China. Historians will debate all that for centuries. Assuming the sadistic butcher doesn't blow the world up first. But what's done is done. So now what we have to learn is whether Master Xi eventually abandons his pit bull as the cheap stuff goes away, and the rest of the world moves keeps moving away from Russia and China. Everyone knows they have to deal with Xi and China. But if you think people across the world want the sadistic butcher to win, you're just in deep denial. Master Xi will of course try to have it both ways for as long as he can. But at the end of the day, China benefits. Russia loses. Enjoy it while it lasts, @Moses. And try not to be turned into fertilizer, okay?

By the way, world did not forget about sadistic butcher. Putin and Russia are fucked. Rush of new defense deals with US shows Europe’s growing concern over Russia World no like butcher. World no like sadist. World say. "We push back." World say, "We no like Putin soldiers rape our women, kill our children, kill hundreds of thousands of our men. We kill them. We make good Russian fertilizer." World say, "Fuck you Putin." World say Putin fucked. Master Xi Whiz say, "I like inferior Putin pit bull. I like Putin bark. I like Putin bite." As long as Putin pit bull stay on Master Xi's leash, pit bull okay. But Master Xi no like World War III. Master Xi no like everyone stop investing in China. Putin pit bull get out of control, Master Xi have to put inferior Russian pit bull down. So sad. They were bosom buddies once. EU–China relations disintegrating on autopilot Master Xi kind of fucked, too. Master Xi like more money and investment with Europe. Europe say, "We no like your inferior Russian pit bull. We no like his bark. We no like his bite. We no like he turns hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian men into fertilizer. We think it better you put your inferior Russian pit pull down." Will Master Xi keep inferior Russian pit bull on leash, or put him down? Time will tell. American public no like Putin. American public say, "Putin is sadistic butcher." American public push back. That poll is better than a Harris poll a week earlier that said Americans were 51/49 against more aid to Ukraine. In that poll, independents were narrowly against more aid. In this poll, they are narrowly for it. Could be the difference between two polls. But this is playing out as I would have guessed. When the headlines are about a failed or disappointing Ukrainian counteroffensive, it does undercut support for sending more money. In part because a humane people would not want to pay for a war that does nothing, other than turn hundreds of thousands of Russians and Ukrainians into fertilizer. When the debate is about whether we want a sadistic butcher like Putin to have more power over Ukraine, or Europe, or America, or the world, people get clear very quick. And support for Ukraine grows. World no like sadistic butcher Putin. Putin fucked. Russia fucked. So sorry, my dear.

Good for Russia. But it is still an economy that can't really get it up. The surprise is the Russian economy was supposed to be shrinking. So compared to not being able to get it up at all, 3.5 % does make Vlad look a virile stud. As virile as all those 21 year old Russians that are rotting in Ukrainians fields. But, honestly, it ain't really all that great. When Vlad was younger, he could really get it up. Every year between 2000 and 2008, the Russian economy was growing at a 5 to 10 % clip. Young Vlad looked less like a butcher and sadist (although we will always have Chechnya) and more like the leader of a sound and growing global economy. Which is what Vlad is, at least in his jack off fantasies. In reality, his army is dying and turning into insect food in Ukraine. Zelenskyy runs a country that is smaller, poorer, but apparently tougher than Russia. Poor Vlad! So I get it. It's kind of impressive these days that Vlad can get it up at all. But what is working for him now is a War/Butchering/Sadism Economy. And we have seen this movie before. And it usually ends very badly. Which countries had two of the fastest growing economies in the 1930's? Germany and Japan. Why? Because they were plowing money into war/butchering economies. It's not like Vlad is creative or something. And compared to Adolph, Vlad is pretty much impotent. At least Adolph could figure out how to grow his economy 55 % in five years, from 1933 to 1938. While the US and much of Europe was weak. So if the IMF is wrong, and even if Vlad has another 3.5 % year, he's no Adolph. The US and EU are growing faster, and smarter. That Nazi German war economy was some serious shit. Adolph was powerful enough to kill millions of Russians. Sorry about that, by the way. Basically, all Vlad can do is wage a war he can't win. And if it goes on long enough maybe he will also kill millions of Russians. For sure hundreds of thousands. Some legacy. How does that make Vlad a bad ass, again? So the real danger to the world is that, as Nazi Germany and Japan proved, if you throw all your mojo into a War/Butchering/Sadism Economy, it tends to lead to war and sadism and butchering. Or, in this case, World War 3. If Vlad could really get his economy up 55 % in the next five years, while the US and EU flailed, maybe he could take on the US. Or NATO. Or at least Poland. Maybe Latvia? Lithuania? The Falkland Islands? Instead, Vlad can't do much more than kill Russians and Ukrainians. Good news is if he can't start World War 3, Russia at least won't end up blown to shit or nuked like Germany or Japan. Which I would actually feel very good about if I were sitting in your shoes, @Moses. But your economy is still fucked. Sorry. I told you how I bet it ends. Poor Vlad is gonna get castrated by his Master Xi Whiz. Xi likes his old pit bull just fine. Since he can at least still bark and bite quite a lot. And as long as he stays on his leash. But Vlad really does have to wage war and butcher to even try to keep it up. And that ain't working out for Xi as was hoped. I mean, he'll take cheap oil and gas and stuff. But Master Xi don't like all that World War 3 shit. And the whole thing is kind of a bad look, anyway. And on top of that, can we be very blunt? The Chinese look down on these mongrel mutts like Vlad as inferior, anyway. It was never a marriage made in heaven. And it never will be. So despite all the hugs and kisses, Xi Whiz is probably gonna have to castrate your used to be badass butcher someday. Not this year or next. But Xi ain't really a happy pet owner. He's gonna have to abandon his old pit bull one of these years. You'll see.

You don't follow your own logic, @Moses. If Zelenskyy is down to "only" 62 % of the vote, in a real poll, that makes him way more popular in his country than Biden, Trump, or Putin are in their country. Of course, in Putin's case that's if there were real polls of people who would not be arrested or sent to Ukraine to become fertilizer if they answer the question wrong. Again, thanks. Overall, you are comforting me. And informing me, albeit indirectly. Since I read your misrepresentations and then go hunting for context and facts. I have been reading ad nauseum that if it's a war of attrition, Russia wins. So learning about Putin's 2024 budget was helpful. He's clearly planning that a huge and unsustainable one year hike in defense spending will do something. What might "something" be? Maybe he thinks the US and EU will stop funding Ukraine. Maybe he thinks regardless of what the US and EU do Ukraine will be so weak that Russia has a military breakthrough. Maybe he thinks Trump will win. Of those three options, the latter seems most likely and most helpful to Putin. My guess is that in his "24 hour" peace agreement, Trump will indirectly turn lots of Ukrainian men, women, and children into fertilizer. Of course, that won't be his stated or even unstated goal. But if he hands them over to Vlad, we all know that a sadistic butcher will feel perfectly fine with his soldiers torturing them, raping them, and killing them as he sees fit. And even that is very unclear. If Ukraine is considering calling up 500,000 more soldiers, they apparently feel they are not defenseless without US or EU support. Here's the other numbers that really suggest Vlad is fucked. And hundreds of thousands of Russians can look forward to be a bright future as fertilizer in Ukraine. The only reason Vlad is not totally fucked is if the US turns out to be a completely castrated superpower. And it is possible that Speaker Johnson, at Trump's command, will cut off his testicles, put them in a jar, and order all the White Republican men in the House Freedom Caucus to do the same. So Trump can hand all those Republican testicles to Vlad, in jars, and adorned with festive American flags. For Vlad to display as his glorious victory to the Russian people. This will be a great debate to have in the US next year. Why are we the first self-castrating superpower in history? It's almost embarrassing to look at those charts as an American. This is NOT a heavy lift. Both charts are a bit dated. And it was not a particularly heavy lift for Russia, either, at least through 2022. Now that has changed. Vlad can only make this work by pushing a massive one year spike in defense spending and focusing his country on a War/Sadism/Butchering Economy that requires paying hundreds of thousands of Russian families to turn their sons, husbands, and fathers into rotting meat. Woo hoo! Placed in a broader historical context, this helps explain why in a long-term war of a attrition in a foreign country, the invader almost always loses. There's VietNam. There's Afghanistan 1.0, USSR edition. Afghanistan 2.0, US edition. And of course Iraq. And perhaps we can thrown in skirmishes, like Libya. The biggest exception I can think of is the US in Kuwait. And that example is irrelevant. The US amassed overwhelming international power, won quickly with limited objectives, and left. Vlad failed completely already on every one of those measures. He is a butcher, he is a sadist, and he is fucked. The most optimistic I can be for Vlad is Chechnya. It required absolute butchery and sadism and destruction. Check. Vlad can do that. It required over ten years. Check. Vlad has ten years of Russian men to turn into fertilizer. 1 million men? 2 million men? Vlad could give a shit, as far as how many Russian men have to be processed brutally into meat. So far, so good. Vlad's got this. Where the comparison falls apart is that Chechnya has a population of 1.5 million. Compared to 43 million for Ukraine, and 143 million Russians. If it took a decade or so to pacify 1 million people + with little or no international allies, a country of 43 million people with the US and Eu behind them, among others, should take at least that long. Russian spending on defense has tripled from pre-invasion levels. So where we now know it really falls apart is that Vlad just doesn't have the money. He does for one year, for sure. If need be I'm sure he could get some unprecedented amount for 2025, too. But 2026? 2027? 2028? 2029? Oh, and who is rolling out AI while Russia is totally focused on bombs and bullets and turning their own men into meat? If the US is in the lead on AI, and what Ukraine needs is some new technological advantage, how might that play out? Maybe in a year or two some drone with facial recognition software will just go hunt for every single Russian soldier in Ukraine and blow his face into meat. That's science fiction. But not too much. One persuasive theory it the the US beat the USSR not only by outspending them, but also by advances in digital technologies that the Soviets simply could not keep up with. At a simple but true level, this is a story about overconfidence. Ukraine had a surprisingly good 2022. And Zelenskyy, with help from the US and NATO probably, got overconfident in 2023. It was a mistake to tell people like me that we should just wait for this stunningly successful counteroffensive THAT NEVER FUCKING HAPPENED. But Putin is doing the same thing now, on steroids. He is telling his own people, and the world, give me one year and I got this. And I promise not to turn too many of you into meat. His budget is fantasy. And his war plans are based on Ukrainians being stupid. And on the US and EU being even dumber, by castrating themselves. Stranger things have happened. But I doubt it. I think what Ukraine, the US, NATO, and the EU are in the process of doing is recalibrating expectations. If the idea is that Ukraine will just be throwing men into the meat grinder until they inevitably lose, it actually seems compassionate to say let's not spend lots of our money to make that happen. If the idea is that a sadistic butcher is pinned down in a war that gradually bleeds both his people and his economy dry, that's a very different proposition. And, yes, the IMF now say's Russia's GDP will grow by 1 % next year. Maybe even 2 %. Woo hoo. They are a backward, fucked up, dead end country that is turning their men into fertilizer while the US and China roll out the 21st century global economy. I'll end my long rant with two even longer and thoughtful pieces I found inspiring to read. They were written recently, and factor in recent disappointments to paint a picture of how Ukraine wins a grinding war of attrition with Russia. Who Will Win the War of Attrition? Analysts say that Ukraine has a chance of success if it adjusts its tactics properly BITING OFF WHAT IT CAN CHEW: UKRAINE UNDERSTANDS ITS ATTRITIONAL CONTEXT

Yes. True. In fact, peace with Russia in prohibited by Ukraine. Clearly, prohibiting peace with Russia left Putin no choice but to invade Ukraine. Besides. Ukraine clearly elected a Nazi leader, since we all know Jews are Nazis. Putin had no choice since he only wants to de-Nazify Ukraine. When Putin sends 500,000 Russians to Ukraine to be turned into fertilizer, it shows his love for Russia and peace. When Zelenskyy send 500,00 Ukrainians to kill Russians who rape women and kill children, it's obviously because Zelenskyy is a butcher. You're not funny at all, @Moses. But this shit is so over the top that I do laugh. Like you and I could both do a bit more editing of what we write. But in your case, some of your stuff, if polished, would be really good black comedy or satire. You could write the next Catch 22.

That's true. The US is hardly one to talk about having a massive debt to GDP ratio. At the margin, that's probably part of why Republicans are balking. We have a huge deficit, and the war looks like an endless stalemate. Why spend more? That said, I think the much bigger political issue is that Republicans just don't want Biden to win. So if inertia hands Putin a victory and lets him slaughter Ukrainians like pigs as he wishes, who cares? My main point is that it's become much clearer to me, thanks to you, just how desperate Putin is for Trump to win. So that will be a big debate in 2024. Do Americans agree that we need Trump again, so he can hand Ukraine over to Putin? And then Putin can slaughter Ukrainians like pigs and rescue his weak economy? Or, is it better to help Ukraine so that Putin's best play is to continuously turn Russian men into meat and fertilizer? And have to pay off the families of the hundreds of thousands of Russians he turns into meat? That's a great debate for America to have. In terms of the debt, the budget says it increases debt 50 %. I don't speak Russian. And most articles I can find with that graphic explaining the budget are ones Google doesn't offer to translate. Here, again, is what the article I cited above said: So I was correct in my original claim, and you were wrong. Putin's War/Butchering Economy spends more than ever before on defense. Which reduces spending for everything else - including health care and education. The future of Russia suffers so that Putin can spend huge amounts of money turning Russians into meat and fertilizer now. I read about half a dozen more articles on Putin's 2024 budget by Western media or think tanks, in English. And they all use the same numbers and paint the same picture. This paragraph from a European think tank in particular really nailed the main point I am making, about how desperate Putin is: And this article makes the same point, in a slightly different way: The numbers speak for themselves. Putin is spending an enormous amount of money in one year, 2024. Presumably based on the idea that he won't have to do it again in 2025 or 2026. In theory, I suppose he could believe that even if Biden is POTUS Ukrainians will run out of will and surrender. But that seems very unlikely. The polls say the opposite. 1 % or so of Ukrainians are fleeing the country to avoid being drafted. 96 % or so of the country support the military and will kill as many Russians as it takes to win. So much more likely is that Putin hopes Trump will win. And that Republicans will do everything they can to undermine Biden. And Ukraine just gets thrown under the bus - like pigs for slaughter. It's a guess, not a fact. But that's my read of Putin's budget. He is counting on Trump winning and handing over Ukraine, or chunks of it, like pigs for slaughter. Putin has a big 2024 problem anyway. As several articles I cited say, his budget is based on lots of wishful thinking. That said, if his economy grows slower and oil prices are lower and Russian men just keep turning into fertilizer in Ukraine, Putin will survive. And, in theory, he can change the 2025 budget if Biden wins and he is in an endless stalemate. He's a very resilient butcher and sadist. What is also clearer to me is that Ukraine probably needs to switch from offense to defense. To vastly oversimplify, the new thing about war - thanks to cheap drones - is this: WHEN YOU MOVE, YOU DIE. So if Ukrainians are moving on offense, they are very easy to kill. But the same applies if Russians try to advance. Part of the reason Russians are doing better is they just took some of the things Ukrainians were doing in 2022 and did the same to them - like drones. So now Ukrainians can put Russians in the same death traps. Focusing on defense is a political problem for Zelenskyy, because polls suggest most Ukrainians want to take back the land Russia took. That was obviously what the 2023 game plan was. It failed. It was one battle in a war. So move on. It's impossible to tell what the Ukrainian military wants, what the US military wants, what NATO wants, and how these goals may differ or be in conflict. But one thing for sure is that if there is less money flowing from the US and EU, it forces Ukraine to scale down their goals. Taking back Crimea seems more and more like a fantasy. Just holding on to what they have may be much more realistic. And it is 1000 % clear that Ukrainians don't want to give the territory Putin already took away to make peace with a sadistic butcher. So there's no doubt they will happily kill any Russian soldier who tries to take more of their territory away. So many Russians, so much fertilizer! The new rule could be this: when a Russian soldier moves, he dies. The US and EU should be making millions of drones. Ideally with the name of every Russian soldier alive - and soon to be dead - on it. Surely the US and Germany can outproduce Iran! Let Putin spend enormous amounts of money he doesn't have every year. And the primary victory he wins is to gain nothing, and turn more and more Russians into Ukrainian fertilizer. If they don't like being Ukrainian fertilizer, maybe they should simply leave a country a butcher forced them to attack without provocation. That's exactly what happened in Afghanistan and Iraq. If you don't think it will happen in Ukraine, you are dreaming. I'm being very gross, but honest. This is the debate the US needs to have. The alternative is electing Trump so he can hand Ukraine over to Russia, hammer a big nail into the coffin of democracy and NATO, and let Putin slaughter Ukrainians like pigs, as he wishes. That's democracy.

I know. Thanks for being honest. Russia is NOT a democracy. So what happens in a democracy like the US or Ukraine must be perplexing to many Russians. You live in a country run by an authoritarian and butcher who kills or jails his political opponents and won't hold real elections. Sorry about that, @Moses. It kinda sucks. ☹️