stevenkesslar

I'm really disappointed in Gaetz for AG. I mean, come on. There are plenty of convicted sex felons out there. It's weak to choose some one who is simply under investigation for illicit sex. We could have at least had a real felon, to double down on that whole macho felon POTUS theme. Nobody cares about crime anymore, as long as Trump or his cronies do it. Especially sex crimes. So WTF? Why not a true criminal?

Do you deny the Holocaust, too? 😨 You just lie and defend genocide. You and @Moses make such a delicious pair. Death, death, death. Slaughter, slaughter, slaughter. How about this? It is an act of love for Bibi The Baby Killer to slaughter innocent Palestinian women and children terrorists. Bibi The Baby Killer loves Palestinian children by slaughtering them. Mass slaughter is an act of love. Focus group that and test if that rationalization for genocide works. Why are you so cruel?

That's like saying Trump is not a felon. And January 6th was a day of love. Every time the IDF kills women and children, they say something very predictable. "We try very hard not to kill the women and children we just killed. When we kill more women and children soon, we will try very hard not to kill them." Somehow, Bibi The Baby Killer has managed to kill at least 40,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children. I guess he could have killed 400,000 Palestinian women and children, but he tried hard not to. Now, if Trump unleashes Bibi The Baby Killer, the real genocide begins. How many Palestinian women and children do you want killed, @EmmetK? Hundreds of thousands of dead women and children? Millions? @Moses is right. Bibi The Baby Killer, unleashed, will definitely give Genocide Man a run for his mass slaughter. Will all the Muslim nations around Israel say, "Hey, let's celebrate genocide against Muslims."? Nope. They will continue to get closer to Iran. Because for some strange reason the Muslim street doesn't like Muslim genocide. This is a strategy for war, not peace. Who knew?

MARK PENN: 8 lessons for Democrats and Donald Trump I'm going to add this as a bit of a rebuttal to myself. 😨 The polls actually were relatively close this time. At least within the margin of error. Mark Penn said he thought Trump had an edge. And he turned out to be right. I don't agree with all his points. But I think he makes his points well. And they are all points that should be debated. His second point is the obvious one: middle class economics matters. It was interesting he did not use the words WORKING CLASS. But, either way, it was the economy, stupid. That connects to his last point: Joe Biden never should have run. His first point is the one that I think is worded particularly well, and why I am posting this to push back on what I wrote above. I think Penn is right that it was predictable that moderates and conservatives would want to get their country back. And they did. I think it is a better and clearer way to think about the culture wars. I don't think America is too racist or sexist to elect a Black woman - or man. I don't Harris ran a campaign in which she weaponized her race or gender. Although some Blacks will decide America is racist. And some Whites will decide Kamala was just a racist bitch. What is more salient to Penn's point is that Harris is a California liberal, like me. Biden often voted as a moderate, but his Presidency definitely leaned left. Most notably on immigration, which we now know made a huge difference. Even among Latinos. I'm at least two things that make me a minority: Gay, and a liberal. Add being an escort for many years, which is something I was reserved about telling people about. Plus I've spent much my life in politics, which is a game of addition. So I am constantly aware of what Penn says: liberals are about 1 in 4 Americans. We can only win when moderates are on our side. Which they actually are, more often than not. But for Trump in 2024 and W in 2004, Democrats won a plurality or majority of votes for President every election in this century. Democrats are pretty good at building coalitions. And it works more often than not. The best example of how this works in practice to me is same sex marriage. The Gays tried hard for years to figure out how to win moderates over. We did one thing consistently: failed. At least when we used liberal arguments about "basic rights". Then we shifted to what was essentially a more conservative approach: "We value marriage. We value love. We just want to be part of THAT." Then we won. There are many conservatives who would gladly ban same sex marriage if they had a majority against it. Which they no longer do. So I am glad Penn made this point first. It is probably the most important thing Democrats need to understand, and change. "Woke" is out. Moderation is in. First, conservatives and moderates took their country back

That's a thoughtful list. There will no doubt be a lot of debate about the role race and gender played in this election. I'll push back on those two points above. If we go by what Harris actually said, it seems like she tried to do the exact opposite. She could have attacked Trump during the debate for being White, which is the wrong race. She could have called him a racist. She could have said you are a male, which is the wrong gender. She could have said that she was Hillary, and the really important thing is to vote for a woman. Because if you don't vote for a woman, you are a sexist. She didn't get within a mile of any such statement. Instead, when she attacked Trump hard she quoted Republican leaders - White men, mostly - who have said very negative, and correct, things about Trump. I don't think she made her race or gender an issue. Because I think her campaign correctly perceived that being Black and female wasn't ever going to be a plus. Example: in 2008, it is not like Obama won because he was a Black man, and any white would have lost. Hillary Clinton would have won in the environment of 2008, had she beat Obama in the primary. Harris made little mention of the fact that she is a woman. She did not use it in the way Hillary "I'm With Her" did. She did focus on abortion, for sure. But that's her focusing on the issues. She did talk a lot about child tax credits, which are particularly popular among Black and Latino parents with children. But that is her focusing on the issues. She also kept saying specifically that she planned to earn the vote of everyone, including Blacks. The strongest piece of evidence for your claim is that Obama did try, and fail, to tell Black men they should vote based on race. Which they did in 2008 and 2012, for sure. That didn't work as well in 2024. The other huge piece of evidence for your claim is that all over the globe there is a growing gender gap between men and women. Women voted for Harris. Men voted for Trump. That's a global reality which is a very big deal. Not something that evolved based on anything Harris or Trump said. I'm reacting to your comments in part because I view 2024 as a victory for America's growing multi-racial democracy. Latinos and Blacks said we can, and will, vote as we damn well please. We are a better country than we were when Republicans were the party trying to STOP Blacks from voting. The unfortunate thing about this election is that some people will interpret this to mean America is too sexist and racist to elect a Black woman. (That would be you, Joy Reid). You seem to be doing the opposite, suggesting that Harris weaponized her race and gender to "attack". The salient fact that I think is quickly becoming the consensus is that it was the economy, stupid. Obama, a Black man, won twice. In the first race he had a huge wind at his back because of the wrecked Bush economy. His second election was taken by many to be a sign that America is less racist than we feared. Because Obama had to defend a sluggish economy. And he did. If you want to talk about "attack", Obama attacked Romney hard and decisively as a fat cat who did not understand the working class, and was on the side of venture capitalists moving factories to China. Harris mostly "attacked" Trump using the words of his own Chief of Staff and generals. Not because he was a White man. We'll never know. But I think if Democrats had nominated Gavin Newsom, a White man, he probably would have lost, too. His skill at defending California liberalism (we're the fifth largest economy in the world) would not necessarily have been an asset, either. The more interesting counterfactual would be a moderate White man like Andy Beshear. Trump would not have run transsexual prisoner ads against him. And he did win twice in Kentucky. That said, now that we know how working class Whites and Blacks and Latinos voted, I think Republican Mike Murphy was right. Thanks to high prices and interest rates, there was a "wall of lava" coming at Biden, or anyone who took his place. I think Newsom or Beshear probably would have faced the same outcome. It was the economy, stupid. Not race or gender.

I agree with you. That is excellent analysis from Fareed. It is now almost a consensus starting point. Meaning that not everyone will agree with every point. But that provides a framework for debate. So I'll debate some points. The statement I disagree with most is Frum at the end. Democrats are not going to turn on each other. They are going to resist the worst impulses of Trump, as we should. Examples: tax cuts for billionaires, genocide against Palestinians, tax cuts for billionaires, cutting Medicaid if they try, tax cuts for billionaires, mass deportations separating parents and children, anti-democratic actions, tax cuts for billionaires. When these things start to happen it will quickly unite Democrats. How do I know this? Name a year between 2015 and 2024. I like Ezra Klein's phrase "incumbency penalty." That is a hard fact screaming to be heard. And he is right that Democrats almost won. As of right now, there is almost ZERO shift in the House. Republicans maybe pick up a few seats. We lost one Senate seat in a swing state, and won four in states Trump barely won. We lost three Senate seats in red states. That is a huge problem Democrats will have to spend many years fixing. We lost the Presidency by a few points at most, much smaller than Trump lost by in 2020. So basically Democrats are deeply unpopular in red states, but winners or viable in blue and purple states. And this is in a year when, to quote Klein, most incumbent parties were "annihilated." This should be embarrassing to Democrats. We won the affluent, and lost the poor. By comparison, in 2016 when Trump won he only carried the group from 50k to 100k. In 2020 when he lost he only carried the group from 100k up. In 2016, Clinton won voters under 50k by 53/41. In 2020, Biden won the same group 55/44. If lower income voters had chosen Harris by the same margins as Clinton or Biden, she probably would have won the narrowest of victories in the blue wall states. Why the shift? I'm guessing it's not because these voters want more tax cuts for billionaires, fewer health care premium subsidies, and elimination of all child tax credits. Fareed is right that the US economy is booming, and the envy of the world. Stanley Druckenmiller is not struggling to buy milk or gas. So Democrats don't need to, and won't, move back to welfare state politics. But what this period proved is that you can have a booming economy, and Druckenmiller can be making money hand over fist on a tech boom. But the working class still feels left behind. Meanwhile, seniors shifted a little bit toward Harris. I suspect that may reflect the fact that they tend to own homes or stocks or both. So they are big winners of soaring stock market and housing valuations. Working class people who pay rent are the big losers. I think it is a good thing that Democrats are going to have to think long and hard about this. You seem like you are not a fan of the expanded child tax credits, @KYTOP. But they were wildly popular with the working class voters, especially Latinos, who got them. So if Democrats want to actually do something to fix this problem, those tax credits will go down much better than tax cuts for billionaires. Of course, a strong economy is the most important thing. But we have had that, and the working class still feels left behind. Like Ron Brownstein, I am not sure the culture war issues are as salient as some people think. If they were, it was a side dish to the main plate of It's The Economy, Stupid. I think the main way they hurt in 2024 is Harris is a California liberal. So it made it easier to define her as such. Are Democrats in general persona non grata? I don't think so. If Andy Beshear had run, I don't think moderates would have turned against him because he is a Democrat. Again, Harris won the vote of moderates, but by less than Biden did in 2020. So this will be a painful debate. But not too painful. I think what just happened buries ideas like "LatinX" for all time. I posted this in another thread. But it is worth really absorbing. That is not the portrait of a political party in collapse. Unless we are talking about Republicans. Democrats are doing a lot of things right. Just ask Andy Beshear. The one thing I disagree with Fareed about is "lawfare". I think it was a tactical mistake to lead with Bragg, which in relative terms was a petty crime. I agree with the analysis that Merrick Garland should have come out swinging early in 2021. And we should have had a trial on Jan. 6th, which polls said voters wanted. In fact, we had lots of trials. And lots of those felons went to jail. To me, Biden was weak for waiting years. He should have said Jan. 6th is a serious crime that needs to be prosecuted ASAP. If anyone thinks that this election somehow voids out all those polls that showed that the vast majority of Americans were disgusted with Trump's actions on Jan. 6th, we'll learn soon enough. Trump will probably over reach. Because he just can't help himself. What seems very likely is that low income voters who supported Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 were just pissed. Biden and Harris paid the incumbency penalty. But there is no particular reason to think Trump will suddenly become the President of low income voters. He will cut taxes for billionaires and his rich donors. And probably try to cut safety nets vital to these low income voters. If Democrats almost won in 2024, what is likely to happen in 2026 if Trump follows the course he has promised to? Democrats need to dump some positions that made us look extreme. But we need to double down on a lot of positions and policies that have been, and still are, at our core. If we can almost win in a year when incumbents were annihilated in most places, like the UK and France and Germany, we should be able to win in 2026 if we focus on these problems. It is sad but also funny that if Democrats need a model of how you attract the working class Latino vote, we have an incredibly clear and relevant example right next door, in Mexico. The working class party there just beat the incumbency penalty. And elected a woman the Latino working class loves. We should dump LatinX and adopt Aprende X, Y, and Z.

And there is no genocide in Ukraine, either. When you kill vermin, it is not genocide, right? Has anyone ever told you that you and @Moses make a very attractive couple? You are wrong about most Democrats, just like you are wrong about most American Jews voting for Harris, Genocide Jew. But I understand your cruelty distorts your ability to recognize facts. You are surely not alone in MAGA-land. Something like 1 in 3 Republicans now say that America is too one-sided in favor of Israel. Of course, that means the vast majority feel the opposite. So what will be tragic to observe is how deeply genocide splits the GOP. We know there is a minority of MAGA Republicans who are for suspending the Constitution, and for violence to steal elections like in 2020. Democrats have now made clear we don't do those things. In the long run, I think that helps Democrats. in the long run, this solidifies a Democratic majority that oppose Bibi The Baby Killer and his genocide fever dreams. But the verdict is out on how much Republicans support genocide against Palestinians. It all depends on what Bibi The Baby Killer does, and how people react. But you are very clearly proud to be a Genocide Jew. God bless you! Why are you so cruel?

Exactly, Genocide Jew. We agree that is probably what it means. Bibi The Baby Killer is unleashed. Your blood is almost dripping. He can have his genocide. Why does genocide turn you on? How many Palestinian women and children do you want to see killed? 100,000? A million? All of them? Gas chambers? Bullets? Bombs? Why are you so cruel?

Pretty well, actually. Again, you are making it 1000 % clear to us. You are a cruel person, and you want as much cruelty and fascism as you can get. So of course you actually get excited thinking maybe your fascist dictator wannabe will suspend The Constitution as promised. Why are you so cruel? Harris lost a close race - 2 million votes, rather than Trump's 5 million in 2020 - because of the economy, stupid. If you somehow take that as a mandate for cruelty and dictatorship, all you are doing is revealing to us what a cruel person you are. It's not really necessary. Your cruelty has been obvious for a long time. Every poll I've read makes it crystal clear that a key bloc of voters held their nose and elected Trump despite their deep misgivings about his extreme and anti-democratic views, based on the words coming out of his own mouth. And his actions on Jan. 6th. And his crimes. These are facts. If Susie Wiles can't keep her pit bull on a leash and he does more cruel shit, and sends his supporters to go beat the shit out of more cops, it is very clear how Americans see that. Some Republican winning streak. What pisses me off is that Democrats like Claire McCaskill and Jon Tester lose in states that ought to give us a Senate majority. That is a huge problem. Democrats now have been beaten with a 2 x 4 and told we need to reground ourselves in the struggle of the US working class. I think this is great news. Some day, maybe, if we are very lucky, Democrats can even win in Oregon, or Minnesota. Do you think that is possible? That Democrats could actually win a Senate seat in Oregon or Minnesota? I'm speaking truth. In the 1980's it looked like Republicans had a lock on two Minnesota Senate seats. Then Paul Wellstone came along. A little later it looked like Oregon was locked into Hatfield/Packwood/Smith Republican moderation permanently. Then Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley came along. In each case it was economic populism and fighting for the little guy and girl that turned the tide. Democrats need to reconnect to that in rural-ish states. It won't be easy. But look at that list above. In the current swing states, Democrats beat Republicans almost every time. You think 2024 is a mandate for dictatorship and cruelty? Why are you so cruel? It was a mandate for moderation. The good news to me is Democrats now have to moderate on some culture war issues and refocus on what the Latino, Black, and White working class wants. If I assume Trump follows your lead, @EmmetK, you will make that much easier for Democrats with your orgy of cruelty and genocide.

Why are you such a bad liar? Bottom line, you are for genocide against Palestinians. You and Genocide Freak @Moses are a handsome couple. Enjoy your genocide fantasies. You are an awful liar. But who said cruel liars could never be elected President? Maybe Trump will surprise us, and stop Bibi The Baby Killer from his genocide. But I doubt it. How many Jews voted for Donald Trump? How many for Kamala Harris? 79% of Jews voted for Harris, according to the largest exit poll, defying a red wave that some had predicted. Most Jews just don't agree with cruel lairs like you. They do not want genocide against Palestinians. Why are you so cruel? Why are you for genocide?

I agree with you on this, mostly. Democrats did not legislate COVID into existence. They did not legislate to have global supply chain shocks and inflation. So I view COVID as one big win for Democrats in 2020 and one big loss for Democrats in 2024. But pandemics are outside our control. Immigration is a whole different story. The easy comparison is Obama to Biden. Obama was Deporter In Chief, and he did well with Hispanics. Biden went too far the other direction, and even Blacks and Latinos revolted. Democrats asked for it. At every point along the way elected Democrats in swing states were warning that the reaction was building. Trump Border Czar Tom Homan To Blue States: If You're Not Going To Help Us, Get Out Of The Way I'm actually really glad the Democrats lost the House. What makes sense is let 50 % of America have what they voted for. We know for sure fascist wannabes like you will want as much cruelty as you can get. But don't count on that teeny tiny majority holding. If the 50.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 % Trump majority were a penis, it would be invisible and useless. When Trump gives his hog feed tax cuts to billionaires, Democrats will go nuts. And hopefully demand he give the budget-busting money to Latinos as child tax credits instead. Eliminate Hispanic child poverty, and raise taxes on billionaires. But you guys are greedy and people just won't like it. When Homan deports rapists and murderers, it will be popular. And for the most part I think the blue states - where most of these "illegals" live - will go along. If we are talking about rapists and murderers. When he tries to "find" 300,000 "missing" children, it will be the opposite. What's missing is not the children. What's missing is the paperwork. Most Latino children are not rapists and murderers, as far as I am aware. These children, and many others, chose to cross into the US and are likely mostly living with relatives. So when Homan starts to round them up, separate the "missing" children from the families they came to be with, and say this somehow ends "sex trafficking" or whatever it ain't gonna go down well. ESPECIALLY WITH LATINOS. But you don't care. You can't get enough cruelty. Why are you so cruel?

Sweetie. That ain't nothin. Finland hates the United States. They had a special election in 2024 in which they voted for Genocide Man to take then over and slaughter their women and children. Sweden hates the United States. They had a special election in 2024 in which they voted for Genocide Man to take then over and slaughter their women and children. Oh, wait. No. I'm wrong. Sweden and Finland joined NATO because they despise Genocide Man and his slaughter of women and children. I mean, Genocide Man won an important battle. But it doesn't change the inevitable collapse of the rotten and weak Russian Federation, where citizens are processed into meat. Enjoy it while it lasts.

You know, this is the real head scratcher. Why vote for genocide? There is a huge list of things that are sad about this election. But the thing I find impossible to grasp is why Arab Americans voted for Palestinian genocide. Bibi the Baby Killer will now compete with Murderous Vlad to see whether Israel or Russia deserve the title Genocide World. There was a Politico article about how lots of Arab Americans in cities like Dearborn voted for Trump as a protest vote against Biden and Harris having blood on their hands. And they are of course right that many of those weapons being used to kill Palestinian women and children are provided to Israel by the US. I mean, it's nice they got to make a statement and what not. But it comes at the cost of electing someone who will do nothing while Bibi The Baby Killer levels Gaza. It's not just "peace through strength." It's "peace through genocide," which has never actually worked. What it also means, sadly, is that any shred of credibility Israel has left will be gone after Bibi's genocide plays out, in all its blood and glory. In a survey from the Arab American Institute, 53 % of Harris voters said US policy is too one-sided toward Israel. 34 % of Trump voters feel that way. So increasingly Democrats will see Israel as an apartheid nation, at best. And a country that practices genocide, at worst. And as the genocide plays out, if Bibi The Baby Killer does what he seems to want to do, Republicans will also be increasingly divided over supporting Israeli's genocide policy toward Palestinians. Granted, the American Jews I know well are all Democrats. But this is not the Israel or America any American Jew I know wants.

Actually, there is technical term for this. "Tax reform." Coming soon to a Republican Congress near you. Every night, every legal Latino in America prays to the Blessed Virgin Mary for tax cuts for Elon Musk. Let Earth receive her King. Glory to Trump forever!

I think this is a big miscalculation by the Bozo MAGA types, and also to a great degree the press. I think it's partly because they both like the "landslide" drama. The big question that gradually bubbled up in Trump's first term was collusion with Russia. Last I checked, Bob Mueller was a Republican, working under the authority of a Republican AG. He indicted Russians and laid out Trump's potential collusion and actual obstruction in detail. Even so, Trump and MAGA have insisted ever since that it was a big Democratic nothingburger. And, in fairness to Trump, no crime was proven Now the issues are way more serious. January 6th showed the whole world what Trump is really capable of. Will he be a dictator on day one? Will he try to jail or kill his political opponents? What other democratic norms will he try to demolish? There might be an assumption that since Trump won by a few million votes, all these issues just went away. The polls, which actually did a pretty good job of predicting Trump would win by a point or two, make it very clear that many voters simply voted against the Biden economy. They are hoping Trump is different this time. I hope they are right. So all we have to do is just let Trump be Trump. He certainly has won the right to do that. Maybe he will be kindler and gentler, and shower child tax credits on Latino and Black Moms and Dads. And cut child poverty in half. I sure hope so. But I ain't holding my breath. 48 % of America - at least - is simply hoping what we fear won't come to pass. I don't think that is being calculated in. I've loved watching Mark Halperin's 2Way. To his credit, he has tried really hard to get Trump voters and Harris voters to talk to each other, and understand. I think it works because the people he attracts are mostly not the true believers. They mostly were able to be clear about their deep reservations about both Trump and Harris. I think one thing Halperin just deeply misreads is this notion that Harris supporters are now going to have the biggest "mental health crisis in US history" - Halperin's words. It's silly, really. Because we know how this already played out from 2017 to 2021. We're not going to go crazy. We're going to resist if and when Trump actually does what we fear he is going to do. Stan Greenberg wrote about this already, as Trump 1.0 was growing more and more distrusted and unloved. In fairness to Trump, none of this applies if who we elected is the kindler and gentler Trump, who wants nothing more than to shower child tax credits on the working class. And end child poverty. If Trump instead showers tax cuts on billionaires, "protects" women against their will, and crushes democratic norms to get his way, that's a whole different thing. Just as we can't say the election shocked us, the resistance that follows won't be shocking, either.

Yes, Genocide Man offered Ukraine peace by invading their country. It's just obvious, isn't it? This is the hard part for Russia. The polls showed very clearly that before the invasion Ukraine was more or less split down the middle. They were quite open to Russia, and candidates that wanted to ally with Russia. Now they all hate you. They want you dead. And they are killing hundreds of thousands of Russians. The hatred has nothing to do with the US, or Europe, or NATO, who they respect and want to be allies with. It has to do with Genocide Man, and genocide. Nothing you can do will change the fact that they hate you. Blame it on yourselves, and your genocide.

Duh! We don't even have to guess with you. You are a fascist, and you yearn for fascism. We read it here first. No doubt, the millions of people who voted their pocketbook for Trump will cheer and worship him when he throws the Jews the illegals in camps. And remember. They're only vermin poisoning our blood because Goebbels Trump said so. Every King knows the illegals are our misfortune! How do you say that in German, by the way? And why are you so cruel?

Like I said, enjoy your cruelty while it lasts. When Trump starts deporting the parents of legally American kids, or the kids themselves, cruelty won't look so good anymore. And Lichtman will still have his hair. 😉 You can keep beating Lichtman up all you want. I still like The Keys as an explanation for why people vote the way they do. What he clearly got wrong this year was the economy, stupid. He needs to change that key to reflect the fact that, just like in 1992, when it feels like a recession - or when inflation hits hard like in 1980 - it is horrible news for incumbents. That is the obvious thing that I think almost everyone agrees on. @Moses is definitely on to something with this idea that about 10 million Biden supporters did not vote. We know some of them shifted to Trump. But as @Moses said, it's not really that Trump improved on his 74 million votes. As of now he has added 500,000 votes from 2020. It's that Harris didn't get something like 10 million votes (probably more like 8 to 9 million when the counting is done) that Biden got in 2020. If the 2024 electorate was the same as 2020, I'm pretty sure Harris would have won. It will be really interesting to learn who those 10 million people are, and why they did not vote. But comparing the CNN 2024 exit polls to the 2020 exit polls gives us some clues: In 2020, voters aged 18-29 were 17 % of the electorate, but only 14 % of the electorate in 2024. In 2020, Blacks were 13 % of the electorate, but only 11 % in 2024. In 2020, Latinos were 13 % of the electorate, but only 12 % in 2024. So that has to be millions of votes missing right there. The big winner was voters 65 and older. There were probably more of them, and Harris did better with them than in 2020. It makes sense. They own more stocks, and homes. So they were the big winners in the huge leap in net worth, home prices, and the stock market under Biden. Young people, Blacks, and Latinos faced with soaring rent were not happy. Trump voters should be more than a little concerned that in 2024 you won what was not a landslide mostly because something like 10 million young voters, Blacks, and Latinos stayed home. What happens if they vote in 2026 and 2028, and favor Democrats like they usually do? Although there is some great news for Trump and the working class. We all know what Blacks, Latinos, and young people demand more than anything else: tax cuts for billionaires. Oh, and corporations, too! When Trump passes his hog feed tax cuts and the young, Latinos, and Blacks who are not rich get crumbs, that will no doubt make them want to vote Republican for the rest of their lives!!!!!!! But just to be 100 % sure, Trump really needs to cut their health care, too. Not being able to afford health care is even more revered than MLK by most Blacks.

Boy do I wish you were right! Remember, I was in the minority saying the Iraq War was a huge mistake. And I'd go along with calling THAT a genocide, too. The US lost tremendous amounts of good will. And Iraq opened the door for Genocide Man to say, "Okay. I can do the same. Genocide or bust!" I'll be broken record about this. If Democrats had spent more money on child tax credits to Latino and Black families and less on weapons, Harris might have won. Anyone who thinks Donald Trump and Republicans will spend more on the poor, like child tax credits, is delusional. They will cut taxes for billionaires and corporations that price gouged. That is what working class Latinos want, of course. Every night working class Latinos pray for tax cuts for billionaires. LOL. There you have it again, delusional Genocide Freak. Americans despise Genocide Man and Russia. Americans are warmer to NATO than about anything else. That poll predicted some of what just happened. Democrats like enviro groups. But they also like US natural gas and US nuclear power. Now is a time for us Democrats to face facts and shift. The poll that is from is Stan Greenberg, who more than any pollster knows what might work better with the working class. His wife, Rosa DeLauro, is a member of Congress and was champion of the child tax credits. When Manchin killed them, she said this was a "big mistake" for Democrats. She was right. So now what we have instead is Trump, who is not going to favor the poor. They will get some crumbs with the billionaire tax cuts. But that's all. Pop quiz: Which US President decided to send weapons to Ukraine? Answer: Donald Trump So, yes. Trump plays everything both ways, including Ukraine. Genocide Man of course knows this. Trump will be constrained by America's commitment to NATO, and to Ukraine. If he hands Ukrainian women and children over to Genocide Man on a platter, to rape and kill, it will not go down well. Ukraine is adamantly opposed to being part of Genocide World. Get out of your delusions! As of right now Harris would be President if 130,000 people in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin had voted for Harris rather than Trump. Or, if 250,000 Biden supporters in 2020 voted in those three states in 2024 instead of staying home, she would have won. 250,000 is a lot of people. But not much when you compare it to how many Russians Genocide Man has processed into meat in just a few years, in a much smaller and weaker and failing country like Genocide World. So don't overestimate the nature of Putin winning one very important battle. I agree with you that fewer dead Ukrainians and Russians would be a mercy. Funny that a Genocide Freak like you, who backs the sadistic mass murderer who started the war, comes here to preach about peace and mercy. Go preach about mercy to Genocide Man and see how that goes.

You're obviously spending lots of time pulling up quotes about Lichtman. Why do you get so much pleasure out of being cruel? Enjoy it while it lasts. Absolutely! You're not gonna get a debate from me on that. I already posted a lot about it. Here's more, focusing on what we can learn from the success of our "Latino working class" neighbor. While turnout was bad for Democrats, Harris also got over 5 million more votes than Hillary Clinton in 2016. 2020 turnout was record breaking. So it's no surprise overall turnout went down. But your point is correct. Trump supporters got out and voted. A lot of Democrats, or maybe they should be called soft 2020 Biden supporters, didn't bother. And the most concerning trends were Latinos and young voters, especially men, who moved heavily to Trump. The only nice thing about it is that it's so clear and obvious from the Votecast polls that no one can be confused about it. It obviously had mostly to do with the economy, stupid. Every Democrat is now talking about "working class" and Latino. This is part of a global trend. Almost everybody who ruled during COVID+inflation is being punished at the polls. Except for Genocide Man, of course. Russia doesn't have real elections. Kind of weird for a Genocide Freak like you to be lecturing me about elections. But go ahead. Rub it in if you want. It was a failure. Team MAGA is already overreaching. Biden won by 5 million votes and about 4.5 % in 2020. When the votes are all counted Trump will win by a little over 2 million votes, and maybe 2 %. Hardly a landslide or a mandate. So we'll see how it goes. But it's almost certain Trump will want tax cuts for oligarchs like Elon Musk and corporations. Mexico is the interesting exception to the rule. I knew Sheinbaum won big. But your point about 10 million less US voters made me curious. So I checked. AMLO won in 2019 with 30 million votes, That was just under 55 % of about 57 million Mexican voters. Sheinbaum won in 2024 with 36 million votes, which was 62 % of about 60 million votes. So it was the opposite of the US. Higher turnout. And a huge mandate to a Latino working class party for more of the same. Plus they elected their first female leader. And inflation in Mexico was as bad as in the US, peaking at 9 %! I want the US to be more like Mexico, and less like Genocide World. Trump will do the opposite. He'll buddy up to Genocide Man and oligarchs like Musk. It won't be popular. That's not what Latinos voted for. What worked in Mexico? Lots. But I'll state three big things. First, social pensions for seniors and lots of other things to boost the working class. Including a guy who personifies working class sensibilities. Second, defend the police rather than defund the police. A book can be written about AMLO's "hugs, not bullets" policy. But he made a big show of hiring cops and paying them more and reducing violent crime, which did go down in Mexico after the pandemic. He also stressed energy independence. So he is the poster child for a style of "Latino working class populism" that worked better than what Biden did. Every time I talk about this I will repeat that if Democrats had fought like hell for the expanded child tax credits, which helped tens of millions of Latino, Black, and White working class families and cut child poverty in half, Democrats might have had a result more like what AMLO and Sheinbaum pulled off. Anyway, Mexico did a better job than the US, where Harris lost by a few points. And both did better than Genocide World, where political opponents to Genocide Man are jailed and killed. And where he sends his people off to be processed into meat. You must be pretty jealous! I'm not jealous of all the Russians Genocide Man is sending off to be processed into meat. Or of all the Ukrainians he is slaughtering. By the way, as the polls I've posted before show, Americans love NATO, and despise Russia. Despite voting for Trump, they don't want to end support for Ukraine. If Trump tries to appease his pal Genocide Man by moving against NATO, there will be tremendous backlash.

You know, you did say the same dumb shit in 2016. And we know how that ended. Trump lost. It is natural that clowns overreach. You are overreaching. But, hey, enjoy your cruelty while it lasts. You earned it. The polls made it clear Americans oppose mass deportation. Including ones who voted for Trump, holding their nose. So when the glorious Trump trains of Freiheit und Arbeit come to round up innocent children, or their Latino parents, America will resist. Especially Latinos. Did you miss that in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020? Poor cruel thing! You really should know better. But you're cruel. So you don't.

You're for genocide. So why not, slavery, too? Genocide Man's people are essentially slaves, being sent off to be processed into meat. The electoral college is a remnant of slavery. You should like talking about that. You come here to bring division and hate. So of course you should relish the America of slavery, which was a form of genocide. I actually think it is cool that young Black men are sent to Ukraine to be processed into meat are now welcome into the Republican Party, rather than being told they can't vote. Up with America! Down with Genocide World! In terms of the popular vote, Harris is now losing by half the margin Trump lost by in 2020. Trump is just a liar who lies. In 2020, when he lost by twice as much as Harris, he denied that he lost and brought hate and division to America. Now that he won by half as much as Biden - size matters! - he wants to say it is a huge landslide. Poor thing. So small! He may just barely get 50 % of the vote when they are all counted. The interesting thing is that in most of the swing states, Trump won by a small margin, and meanwhile most Democratic Senators won by a small margin. So yes, it is trench warfare. Something you and all the hundreds of thousands of Russians, especially minorities, that Genocide Man is processing into meat should understand. The war is being won or lost by inches.

Because you don't want to engage in a discussion about all the cruel things you say. Why are you so cruel? Neither does Trump, it seems. So he will probably do many cruel things, just like in his first term. A relatively small slice of voters overlooked the cruelty because they voted based on their pocketbooks, and are hoping that Trump's tariffs raise prices 10 or 20 % and he cuts their health care subsidies and Medicaid. Oh, wait. They are hoping Trump does NOT do those things. They are hoping for tax cuts for billionaires and mass deportations of American children. Oh wait. They are hoping he brings prices down and is not cruel. We'll see. This was NOT a mandate for cruelty. Why are you so cruel?

True, and false. Figuring out who will win The Presidency is complicated. I spent way more time watching Mark Halperin's 2Way than Lichtman this Fall. In retrospect, I know for sure I wanted to believe Lichtman. At one point a few months ago Halperin basically trashed Lichtman and his rigid "data in, data out" system. Meanwhile, for the last few weeks of the campaign Halperin was saying the Trump people seem to be pretty confident they will win. He predicted days before the election that Republicans would win 53 Senate seats and the House. In this case an exceptionally good reporter beat Nostradamus. But the idea that any of this is simple or easy to predict is just a bad idea. I'm now going to post two of my favorite analysts, both of whom Democrats should listen to very closely right now. Ron Brownstein and Ruy Teixeira. Because I follow both of them closely, I can say with certainty this election was a big disappointment, but not a big surprise. I don't know that anyone is really surprised. We have been hearing about inflation and immigration and Biden's low favorability rating endlessly for years. How could anyone who's been paying attention say they are shocked? Brownstein is the gold standard for this election, and any election. Bill Clinton, who Halperin says is the most canny politician of our age, bar none, agrees. This is at least the fourth Bill Kristol interview with Brownstein I have watched since 2018, breaking down the electorate. One concept that stands out above all others is that this is narrow trench warfare. Both sides live in a "calcified" political system. So you win by inches. Democrats won by inches in 2020 and mostly held their ground in 2022. But we did lose the House by inches in 2022. Trump won by inches in 2024. In Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and probably Arizona the Democratic Senate candidate won. Casey lost by inches. Right now there is a net change of one seat - ONE SEAT - in the US House. So journalists are calling this a landslide. Give me a fucking break. As of right now, Trump won by about half of Biden's winning margin in 2020. Reagan won a landslide in 1980 and 1984. 2020 and 2024 are not landslides. They are winning by inches. When the other 25 % of the vote is counted, Trump will have just over or under 50.0 % of the vote, and Harris will have over 48 %. Landslide? Here are the two most important things Brownstein says, in my view. First, this was a national performance review, and Biden and Harris failed. I do think it is sufficient to say that almost every incumbent in the world who presided over COVID+inflation has faced hell from voters. Brownstein argues if Biden were at the top of the ticket, it would have been worse. I don't think it's even a question. Harris brought in enthusiasm, volunteers, and money that saved lots of Democrats who narrowly won, including the ones I mentioned above. He argues there is no precedent in US history for an incumbent party winning in these circumstances. Meaning when the incumbent is NOT running (Truman, LBJ, W) and the country is in a bad mood, their Veep or successor is going to face enormous headwinds. The shift was uniform all over America. So I think Brownstein is right. This was a performance review, and Biden and Harris failed. Second, Brownstein cites a ton of exit poll data that shows lots of voters elected Trump despite their misgivings about both his fascist sounding behavior, and his policies on issues like abortion. A majority of Americans, including some who voted for him, think his views are too extreme. They don't support his anti-democratic words and behavior. So both Susie Wiles and the American voters have our fascist wannabe on a tight leash. If @EmmetK thinks this is a mandate for cruelty, Trump crime, and tax cuts for billionaires, he may be surprised. Enjoy your cruelty while you can, @EmmetK. I'll reinforce one key point. Carter lost in a landslide in 1980, while winning 56 % of the Latino vote. The final number is out, but Harris probably lost with a slightly smaller share of Latinos. And they were the key group that turned massively against Democrats, based on pocketbook issues. The seepage that occurred with Black men happened for the same reason. So it is at best premature to say there is any realignment here. In 1992 Latinos turned against another incumbent, Bush 41, because of a weak economy. This is how it works in America. The idea that Democrats are now doomed forever is at best premature. If Trump starts deporting legally American kids of "the illegals" Latinos will go nuts. You read it here first. If the TRUMP WE FEAR is the one that shows up in January, there will be a massive shift back in 2026. This is a war that is being fought by inches, not by landslides. The Shattering of the Democratic Coalition It’s time to face the facts. Ruy Teixeira Nov 07, 2024 Teixeira has been warning Democrats for years. The irony is that decades ago when he and John Judis wrote The Emerging Democratic Majority they were viewed as wildly liberal. And they were. And are. When that book came out Democrats were in the political wilderness. Now we just had the most liberal and pro-union President ever, arguably. Trump 2016 was anti-union. Dan Osborne ran a great race blasting "millionaires run by billionaires" but siding with Team Trump on immigration. Democrats just lost a huge battle by inches. So what? This election was not a mandate for more tax cuts for billionaires and corporations that profited by price gouging. But that is exactly what we are going to get. Anyone want to predict how popular that will be? The counterfactual I would most like to run is what would have happened if Democrats had fought like hell for those child tax credits? In effect, the tax credits did this to tens of millions of working class families with kids: "Inflation took 25 % out of your pocketbook. Here are tax credits that put it back." Plus it cut Black and Hispanic child poverty in half. Given a choice between more of that, or "we will cut your health care and cut taxes for billionaires", which might America have chosen? This is exactly the kind of stuff AMLO did in Mexico. Not just words. Policies and actions that economically helped the Mexican working class during hard times. AMLO and his party beat the wall of lava that took down most incumbents, including Biden and Harris. So Teixeira has been right twice now, about massive historical trends. I think Lichtman probably has a harder time being objective about it than Teixeira. I wanted to believe Lichtman. But Teixeira turned out to be closer to the truth. Brownstein didn't really get too deep into the cultural issues that Teixeira focuses on. Did Democrats really lose because of what Harris said years ago about prisoners getting sex changes using taxpayer money? Probably not. If Latinos felt they were getting ahead economically under Biden and Harris, she probably would have won. But that would have been because lots of moderates overlooked the fact they feel Democrats went too far on "defund the police" and similar cultural hot buttons. Just like they overlooked all their fears about Trump and his disdain for democracy. And his lies and chaos. This is going to be hard for Democrats. But I think Teixeira is right that the "woke" moment is over. "LatinX" was a bad idea that is now thoroughly discredited. Democrats now have to think very hard about what we can do to help working class Latinos. I know! Let's cut taxes for billionaires! 😨 This moment is so clear that it helps guys like Teixeira and Judis who have been screaming for years that Democrats need to get back to their working class roots.

Moi? Why are you so cruel? I mean, yeah. I had the time of life being a hooker. For about two decades. Is there a problem with it? It's just a funny - but cruel - thing to say on a website like this. But then, we all know you're as good at being cruel as I was at being a hooker. You thrive on hate. I made a ton on sex and fun. I'd rather be me than you. We could talk about why I was such a successful hooker, and landlord, and investor, if you want. Or we could just talk about why you are cruel. Why are you so cruel? You already seem to be excited about this next go round of separating kids from their parents, or deporting legally American kids. Why are you so cruel?