stevenkesslar

YES! YES! YES! For once, someone with actual facts. This is what most people rely on for their information. Which is very very bad. This is what @Kostik and Russians rely on for information. It is very very good. This is why Russians are the freest people in the world. If you don't like Vlad's information, there are virtually unlimited numbers of bridges you can cross while someone puts a bullet in your head. And there are also many fine forms of poison to kill you with. Just ask Navalny and Mentsov. Thieves who did not believe the simple truths of Vlad and Western propaganda tools. This is why the glorious and exceptional economy of Russia runs the best and fastest growing human fertilizer industry in the world. Thanks to Glorious Vlad, and hjs glorious truth, Russia exceeds China and the US at efficiently turning its citizens into nutrients and food for Ukrainian grass and cows. It is a remarkable achievement, based on adherence to Vlad's truth. Russian men could not be happier, or prouder, or better food for cows. Meanwhile, The US and China and Europe are stuck with shitty companies - laggards and liars, propaganda tools, garbage - that are worthless compared to Vlad's fastest growing and glorious human fertilizer economy. Long live Vladimir Putin's excellence and truth!

I give you credit for at least finding a fact you like. See? Facts are not monsters, @EmmetK. They won't hurt you. But saying Lichtman's 100 % accurate predictions are wrong because he once took a longshot run at a Senate seat (he is a historian, not a politician) is like saying Donald Trump is 100 % monogamous because he is married to Melania (He is a rapist and sexual harasser, not a loving and decent husband).

YES! YES! YES! Everyone is talking about how Trump wins in the biggest landslides ever. Most people say Trump's 2020 landslide was the biggest ever. But everybody also talks about 2018. And 2022. And 2023. Even this special election in New York. Yup. Trump wins the best landslides in history. It's just a fact.

The Keys system is itself a testament to Russian-US collaboration, before your mass murdering sadist turned your economy and culture into a human fertilizer economy. Vladimir Kellis-Borok proved two things. First, you can be a Russian named Vlad who is not a mass murderer who undermines democracy. Second, you can actually love democracy and make a real contribution to it. The way Lichtman tells his story, Kellis-Borok approached him about developing a system to predict elections, the way he had success as a leading geophysicist in predicting earthquakes. In both cases using algorithms and pattern recognition techniques. Lichtman says his Russian partner in crime loved democracy. The system has been wildly successful, and has become Lichtman's claim to fame. In a better world, Russians and Americans would be collaborating around democracy, like this. The reason the system works is that it is predicated on two things: 1) democracy works, 2) people in democracies make somewhat reliable and predictable decisions based on important facts. Like how the economy is doing. Whether their POTUS is a constantly moving scandal like Trump. War and peace. The proof of concept is that the US has been around and flourished, as a democracy, for centuries. You can't say that about the USSR. Or the Russian Federation. And certainly not about Vlad's Glorious Corrupt Economy For Turning Russians Into Fertilizer In Ukraine. Sadism and mass murder is just less of a winner than democracy, it turns out. In every post, you kindly confirm what I say about you. You are immune to facts. And your brain is filled with Putin's lies and sadism and propaganda. In this case, Lichtman has clearly predicted the results of every race for President in advance since 1984, using a system of facts. He is likely to predict Biden will win in 2024. If he does that this Summer, he will likely be correct once again. You can tolerate that as much as Putin could tolerate Navalny. Since you can't admit there is a genocide in Ukraine, you certainly can't admit that democracy works. Trump and Putin are the antithesis of all these concepts. They will be remembered by history as losers. And speaking of predictions: GLOBAL FORECAST 2023 The Atlantic Council surveyed 167 experts in various fields to make predictions about how the world will change in the next decade. The single most surprising and significant prediction is that Russia will collapse. 40 % of these experts said Russia will collapse. As opposed to 8 % who think the US will collapse, and 6 % who think China will collapse. This is, of course, why your pit bull President is Master Xi's obedient lapdog. And not the other way around. Have fun while it lasts. Master Xi knows he needs the US and Western economies about 99 % more than he needs his murderous pit bull turning people into fertilizer and fucking up the global economy. Mass murder only gets you so far. A majority (58 %) of the experts said no country will use a nuclear weapon in the next decade. But 14 % predict Russia will, and 10 % predict North Korea will. 3 % think the US will, and 1 % think China will. Again, Vlad and Russia lead the list of predictable mass murdering sadists. But your head is so full of Putin' lies and propaganda that, unlike Kellis-Borok, you can't see facts. Let alone larger truths.

Are you and @Moses the same person? He does an amazing job of demonstrating in text what it is like to be a Russian who has his head totally up Putin's ass and can only spout propagands. You do the same thing, only regarding a different asshole: Trump. Your head is so far up Trump's ass your brains must now be his shit. Lichtman correctly predicted every election since 1984 in advance. Including Trump in 2016. But of course you don't give a shit. Facts were very bad to you. They must have really abused you. Because you have ZERO tolerance for facts. Including how Trump lost in 2020. And how he now owes like half a billion for being a male pig and a crook. A half a billion which he probably doesn't have. But you are right about one thing, @EmmetK. Lichtman is a Democratic joke. Only losers and idiots would pay attention to a word Lichtman says! Trump congratulated professor who predicted his win: ‘good call’ What did facts do to you, @EmmetK? Why are you so disgusted by facts?

YES! YES! YES! Everyone is talking about how corrupt the judge is. Trump is the most honest and least racist person in America. Everyone knows that Trump is Mr. Integrity. People all over the galaxy all agree that Trump never gets in trouble with the law.

YES! YES! YES! Americans are killing and torturing and raping Ukrainians. Decent and kind Vlad is just trying to stop the violence. Tell me again why Russians are despised and distrusted all over the planet? I forget.

YES! YES! YES!' Mass murdering sadists, too!

Yup. it sure is funny.

Thanks again for making my argument for me. Anyone who disagrees with your crooks, thieves, sadists, and mass murderers is a Nazi. The Jewish leader of Ukraine is a Nazi. Because he will not bow down to your sadistic mass murderer who slaughters Ukrainian woman and children. Putin has doomed hundreds of thousands of Russians to be turned into fertilizer so he can be a corrupt sadistic thief. This will continue until your sadist dies or fails.

The world will never forget. Navalny was right. which is why your murdering sadist has to kill him. Russia is run by "crooks and thieves." The "crooks and thieves" murdered Navalny. and anyone else who takes on their corruption.

Is Brazil the lapdog of America, or NATO, or the West? No. They just have no confidence in your mass murdering sadist. Is Nigeria the lapdog of America, or NATO, or the West? No. They just have no confidence in your mass murdering sadist. Is South Africa the lapdog of America, or NATO, or the West? No. They just have no confidence in your mass murdering sadist. Good news for your mass murdering sadist. He gets to be Xi's obedient lapdog. As long as he obeys Master Xi. That is what Putin has done to Russia. While the US and China build the largest and most advanced high tech economies in the world, your mass murdering sadist has to build an economy that is fueled by turning Russians into fertilizer. Your country is a violent mess and it will be viewed with contempt and no confidence in your sadistic leader for the rest of his life.

Or the guilty. Mass murderer Putin Now the EU and US will send weapons and hundreds of thousands of Russians will go off to Ukraine to be turned into fertilizer. Putin is a mass murdering sadist.

So I have to start with a huge disclaimer. I cut and pasted the headline of that YouTube interview verbatim. It has had a quarter million views so far. In my mind, this is far more significant news than Tucker Carlson's snowflake interview of Murderous Vlad. Lichtman did NOT make a formal prediction of a Biden victory in 2024. If you don' want to watch the whole 14 minute interview, the key part is the last 90 seconds, starting at 12:30. That's where Lichtman says this: That's NOT a prediction. But it tells us very clearly where Lichtman's prediction is likely to come down, as of today. He said he'll make a prediction this Summer. This is a description of Lichtman's 13 Keys. He developed this system back in the 80's with a Russian global expert at predicting earthquakes. It basically uses pattern recognition techniques about how important variables - like the economy or scandal or social unrest - impacted the outcome of every US election since the Civil War. Lichtman argues it uses common sense. He says what matters is how well the party in power GOVERNS. Not how well they campaign or what kind of ads they buy. It is actually a huge compliment to American voters, and democracy in general. He does not think voters are stupid. He argues, with 100 % accurate predictions since 1984 behind him, that at the end of the day people care about important stuff. Like the economy, and war and peace. That's a breakdown of how Lichtman rated each election since 1992 in advance. The top line number is the number of FALSE keys, or keys turned against the incumbent. The theory is that every election is a thumbs up or thumbs down vote on the party in power. And if you have six or more keys turned against you, you lose. Probably the single most important variable right now is incumbency. Lichtman has been emphatic since 2020 that Democrats are far better off nominating the incumbent and avoiding a big party fight. Whether you think he is "Dementia Joe" or "Get Stuff Done" Joe, Lichtman says Democrats are far more likely to win with Biden at the top of the ticket. I think what he is saying is almost common sense. The main reason I feel that way is that if Biden did step aside there could be a huge divisive fight over who would replace him. It could tear the party apart. What Democrats are clearly doing instead is circling the wagons around Biden, warts and all. Lichtman thinks that's smart. If he stepped aside, there would for sure be one more nail in the Democrat's coffin, like in 2016: lack of an incumbent. If there were a huge divisive party fight, kind of like what happened in 2016, that would be a second nail in the coffin. My own read of Lichtman's system, which is easy to understand, is that Biden currently has 3 keys against him. 1) Democrats lost House seats in the midterms. 2) Biden is not charismatic. 3) There is no Biden foreign policy success. That's it. As of now, the last incumbent Presidents to be running with only 3 or fewer keys turned against them were Obama in 2012 and Reagan in 1984, when Lichtman predicted a Reagan victory over a year in advance. At the time Lichtman predicted Reagan would win, Reagan was looking wobbly and old. Obama's race was neck and neck until November 2012 in polls. Lichtman argues that, in the end, the fundamentals prevail. I have followed Lichtman closely enough, because he is right in his predictions all the time, that I think I can decode some things he says in that interview. The Economy: He says the economy is good. We clearly are NOT in a recession, despite public anxiety about prices. Lichtman's long-term economic variable is basically mathematical, about rates of long term GDP growth. As of today, Biden doesn't have the economy turned against him. One reason I'd guess Lichtman will wait until Summer is in 2020 COVID changed everything for Trump. Trump went into 2020 with only four keys turned against him. Then in 2020 both economy keys went bad, as did the social unrest key. So it ain't over til the fat man - Trump - eats his KFC. But the economy is looking good for Biden at this point. Third Party: I think @EmmetK is out to lunch on these polls that shows up to 1 in 4 Americans voting for RFK or West or Stein. Ain't gonna happen. Lichtman's standard is that if a third party candidate gets over 5 %, it is a sign of tremors against the incumbent. I would bet RFK, who is now polling as high as 20%, will actually get over 5 % of the vote. Lichtman mentions third party candidates as an important variable in the interview above. So it's pretty likely that this will be a fourth key turned against Biden by Election Day. And we all know it could make a huge difference in close votes in swing states. That said, the memo is out there that if you actually vote for Jill Stein you should be prepared for four more years of Trump. Gen Z is not stupid. War And Peace: This is the other variable Lichtman specifically mentions. And I'm already assuming Biden has one of these two keys turned against him: no foreign policy success. As of today, I'd guess Lichtman would NOT say Biden has had a foreign policy failure. Many people would of course argue Afghanistan was a disaster. And things could change in Ukraine. But it looks like both the EU and the US will manage to send lots of arms to Ukraine. So that Vlad can be successful at turning many more Russian men into fertilizer. Woo hoo! Will Americans punish Joe for helping Vlad cripple Russia's economy and turn his own people into fertilizer? I doubt it. But Gen Z may punish Biden for Netanyahu wantonly slaughtering Palestinian women and kids. There are no other keys likely to turn against Biden, as long as he is the incumbent. So that means probably 4, or possibly 5 keys, turned against him. Which is why Lichtman is saying "a lot of things would have to go wrong in the next several months to predict a Biden defeat." In every election involving Trump, Lichtman has thrown in the caveat that history has no precedent for some of the craziness. Like January 6th. Or an indicted or convicted candidate. If Lichtman is wrong this time, assuming this Summer he does publicly predict Biden will win, it could be like 2000. Lichtman predicted Gore would win. And he did win the popular vote, which at the time is what Lichtman said he was predicting. After 2000 Lichtman said I am simply predicting who will actually win the Presidency. And in 2016 he predicted Trump. But the issue in 2000 came down to a very close election in one state, and its electoral votes. It's easy to see something like that happening again in 2024. That said, Lichtman also refused to say it would be a close election. In 2012, Romney had a teeny (less than 1 %) lead in the RCP average for much of October. The final RCP average showed Obama winning by 0.7 %. Obama won by 4 %. Lichtmann is a historian. I think the right way to understand him is that he thinks Biden is probably going to have the winds of history at his back. Just like Obama did in 2012.

Ignore this post, @EmmetK. Facts did something very bad to you. And I don't want to retraumatize you. But facts do matter. I'm curious what that Emerson poll did. In most of those polls, the third party candidates combined get something like 20 % of the vote. In the Emerson poll, RFK gets 5 % and West and Stein get 1 % each. That seems far more likely how things will turn out. In that Emerson poll, Biden is two points behind Trump. In another poll, Biden is two points ahead of Trump. The main reason that average is skewed and shows Trump with a 5 % average lead are the two Harris polls. Which both give Trump about a ten point lead. And both say something like 20 to 25 % of Americans will vote for third party candidates. This is just not going to happen. There is almost 100 % certainty about that. Every time there is a third party candidate that registers as remotely viable, their poll numbers go down the closer it gets to the election. Ross Perot set the gold standard for how this works. In one Summer 1992 poll he was leading, with 36 percent of the vote. Incumbent Bush 41 had 30 % of the vote, and Clinton had 26 %. It looked like Clinton was going to get clobbered! In fact, the result was almost the opposite. Clinton won the Presidency with 42 % of the vote. Perot got just under 20 % of the vote. Most recently, the same thing happened in 2016. The third party candidates (Johnson, Stein) were polling as high as 15 % of all votes in Summer 2016. By the time people voted, that number went down to 5 % of the actual vote. The significant thing about 2016 is that Jill Stein alone almost certainly took enough votes from Hillary in the three Midwest swing states that she delivered an electoral college win to Trump. THAT could definitely happen again in 2024 with RFK and West and Stein. People realize a "protest vote" basically helps elect someone else. In 2024, it is absolutely clear that lots of voters who lean Democratic, especially Gen Z and Blacks, are now saying they will vote for RFK or West. But we have seen this movie before. By Fall 2024, they will be thinking, "Do I really want to vote for Jill Stein and get Donald Trump again?" The polls have made clear that Trump himself is no more popular among these groups. What the polls are really saying is they are dissatisfied with Biden, mostly about higher prices. The RCP polling average of 11 recent polls in a Biden/Trump race shows Trump leading as of today with 1.1 %. I think that is a more reliable number - as of today. It doesn't factor in Trump's inflammatory and wildly unpopular statements on throwing NATO allies to Putin. Or how Trump egged on the Do Nothing Effective Congress to kill a bipartisan compromise immigration bill. If anyone wants to make "landslide" predictions, they might want to check in with Allan Lichtman. He has predicted the winner of every race since 1984 correctly, and months in advance. He said that quote about Biden to a UK interviewer last week. I'll post on this separately. Lichtman dismisses polls, and says POTUS elections are based on fundamentals like the economy and war and peace. While he has not made a formal prediction (he said he will this Summer), that quote above strongly implies that he thinks the fundamentals - like the economy - are in Biden's favor to win.

Yup. A Cabinet Secretary was impeached. And the McCarthy/Johnson/Who's Next/What The Fuck? Do Nothing Effective Congress is indicted. Congratulations for once again putting stupid cult shit over effectiveness governance. Congratulations for losing again. Don't you get tired of losing? This is why Trump lost in 2018. This is why Trump lost in 2020. This is why Trump lost in 2023. This is why Trump lost the first race of 2024. Americans want effective government, compromise, and a Do Something President and Congress. Not stupid cult shit.

From CNN: It's impossible to draw conclusions from one special election. But I think the Republicans are deeply hurting themselves by being the Do Nothing Effective party. They had a chance to pass a bipartisan border bill that gave Republicans a lot of what they have been bitching and moaning about. And which the polls say a significant majority of Americans want. And instead they chose a meaningless impeachment. The script is writing itself for Biden and Trump. Trump may be the craziest fuck in the world. But some people love him because they think thewhole fucking system is broken. And Trump is the kind of crazy fuck who will shoot you on 5th Ave. and dance on your grave. Woo hoo! Biden may be the most demented old fuck in the world. But he gets shit done. And he doesn't scare people. Which one do you think will win? This election suggests people would rather have politicians who are better at doing things than breaking things.

Okay. Naturally, Americans know nothing. What with The Clintons and media feeding us nothing but propaganda. So tell me this, since you guys get the Straight (but not Gay) news in Russia. Which one is the brainless dementia victim? Trump, or Biden?

Yes. We all know Ukraine is run by Nazis. Well, Russians do. We Americans are just spoon fed propaganda about how some Jew was elected there. It's what the Clintons do cleverly, controlling the media and what not. The Clintons and the media think no stupid American will think Ukraine is a den of Nazis when it's supposedly run by a Jew. But boy have I had fun! I know you and Vlad and your buddy @Kostik have been knocking yourselves out being decent and kind to Ukrainian women and children. But I have been having fun! Like I said in my last post, some Gay military buddies and I got together and raped six really nice Syrian boys. After we brutally tortured them, of course. Just the kind of shit Americans really do for fun, and what not. I worked up such an appetite with all that rape that Hillary invited me over for dinner. We ate some Republican guy running for state office. He sure tasted good, since I was famished after all the raping. Just a typical evening doing the shit us Americans do, while you and Vlad and @Kostik are going overboard being decent and kind to Ukrainians. Oh, and here's some more cool news nobody else will believe. But you and @Kostikwill: Putin says Biden would be better for Russia as president than Trump Turns out Murderous Vlad has a boner for Dementia Joe. Do you think Vlad has a thing for older guys? He clearly does not like younger guys, since he sends them all off to Ukraine to be turned into fertilizer. Of course, there is another way to interpret this. Which is that Murderous Vlad doesn't have a fucking clue how democracies actually work. So, once again, what he did will backfire. All that publicly insisting he is not rooting for Trump does is make it even more clear that he is rooting for Trump. And he just doesn't want to have any fingerprints of his own on it. Just like when some Russian journalist ends up with a bullet in the brain, with no strings attached to Murderous Vlad. But I suppose after 20 years of being increasingly murderous and sadistic both inside and outside Russia, Vlad probably believes people really believe all the bullshit he spews. In Russia, you have no choice. Other than how tragic it is, the comedy show with Tucker would have been truly funny. I was certainly laughing at how stupid Putin looks, assuming the world believes his transparent propaganda.

I think it's sweet that Trump publicly confesses. At least about his love to Melania. And it shows that Trump has thick skin and a good heart. After how horribly nasty so many women have been to Trump, you'd think he might not be such a sweetie. A brief guide to the 17 women Trump has allegedly assaulted, groped or harassed

Or, they don't vote in special elections and midterms. That may be part of it. There is this theory that Trump always manages to bring out the cultists when he is on the ballot. They aren't particularly concerned about voting. They can't name the Governor of their state. They just want to be part of the cult. And, in their mind, fair is fair. Donald Trump won in 2020. And the Deep State had to get the cops to take hostages and even kill an innocent woman trying to break into Nancy Pelosi's office in order to stop them from letting Trump win. Why shouldn't the cult vote? That may have been true in 2016. Not so much in 2020. Or, you can say Trump did manage to get millions more out to vote for him in 2020. But for every cultist who normally doesn't vote but did for their cult leader in 2020, there was at least one person who voted for Biden because they were horrified by the cultism. And how the cultists trash democracy and like breaking cop bones and stuff. So we'll see in 2024. So far, turnout is low across the board. In this special NY election turnout was 372,473 in 2020, then 271,333 in 2022, and now 169,887 in this special election. Democrat Souzzi won this race with about 30,000 fewer votes than Democrat Zimmerman lost to Santos to in 2022. Santos got 145,824 votes in 2022. Which was actually not that much lower than the 161,907 votes he got in 2020. Whereas the Republican who just lost got only 78,229 votes. So this was certainly not an election that inspired Republicans or Trumpers to vote. It also suggests that some of the issues Republicans have been hammering on in New York - immigration, and crime - have been neutralized. Trump is leading the Do Nothing Effective Party. Other than the cultists, people have to notice that Trump is more interested in creating chaos than he is in creating change about issues people care about. Other than his cult, he's not giving people many reasons to vote. Other than retribution and chaos, of course. Souzzi won in 2020 by about 200,000 votes, which is far and away the most votes anyone has ever won by in that district. in the same year, Biden beat Trump 54/44 in the district, which was the biggest win in this century. Even bigger than Obama's 54/46 victory in 2008. So if 2024 is a high turnout election, Biden and Democrats will do well in these blue states and districts. But whether people will turn out that way in 2024 is a huge IF.

This also continues the pattern of 2022 and 2023. Despite the fact that Democrats are supposed to be doing poorly at the polls because of immigration, or inflation, or whatever, they actually are winning lots of swing district seats. They also won a special state House election in Pennsylvania allowing them to keep their House majority.

y Удивительный. Мы наконец соглашаемся. Вы меня смешите своей нелепой Путинской чепухой. Not to be impolite. But Hillary invited me over to dinner to eat one of her political opponents. Then I'm getting together with some Gay military buddies to rape Syrian boys, and commit other atrocities. Few people know that about me. But, hey, you are one of the few who know the truth about Americans.

Gotcha. If I were Russian and I were presented with a chart showing that 23 countries give Russia a 14 % favorability rating and the same countries give the US a 59 % favorability rating, I would do what you are doing. First, ignore the facts. Second, change the subject. Third, make it ridiculous and untrue. Only dogs like the US, Hilary Clinton eats dogs. Dogs who like the US will be eaten by Hillary Clinton. Who will then instruct the global media what to say about her. Or you could throw in just a little bit of truth, like @Moses, and argue that all the countries that think Russia sucks think that because they all suck, and are marginal. Your contempt for other nations speaks for itself. It's easier to be American, which at 59 % I guess means better than average, but with problems. We can just admit we fuck up and make big mistakes, and try to do better. You can't admit to genocide, or being despised as a country that plans and executes a genocide. I get it. Let's just read a fairy tale together, okay? It will save both of us wasted words.

Thank you. More truth! Wow! It's true that Putin started a war in Donbas. I'm sorry to hear two of your relatives died. But blame that on Vlad. He started the war in Donbas. Just like he started the genocide in Ukraine. If you don't want Russians dying, including ethnic Russians living in Ukraine, you should stop the war and stop the genocide. But you won't even discuss the genocide, or admit it exists. All you guys can talk about is the shit you get from Putin. US soldiers raping children. Ukrainian Nazis. We killed Ukrainian children, ex-Wagner soldiers say in apparent confession The testimonials come as mercenary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to be returning to Vladimir Putin’s good graces. And of course you can't admit to that, or talk about it. Including killing lots of Russian speaking children in Donbas. Of course your genocidal leader had to kill Prigozhin. He can't have challenges to his genocide and child killing and kidnapping. Everyone predicted it. Everyone joked about how Prigozhin would soon be falling out of a window. That's how predictable Vlad is as a genocidal murderer. The only problem is the window on airplanes are too small to fall out of. So Vlad had to blow up the plane instead.