stevenkesslar

Well, if that is what Gay porn is today, I'm turning str8. 🤢

I don't think we should judge Trump harshly, just because he slept with Mike Pence. 😉

What happened to the rule of law in America? America is ruined. The rule of law is broken. Billionaire CEO, real estate investor on impact of Trump verdict: 'Nobody wants to do business' in NYC And it's not just New York. The whole world is aghast at America. The whole galaxy! This is the biggest injustice done to anyone, ever, in all human history. And it is Joe Biden's fault! It only starts in New York. When the verdict was announced people in California started committing mass suicide. There were mental breakdowns and thousands of fatal car crashes within minutes of the verdict. In my own neighborhood, I could hear deep human wailing. "The rule of law! The rule of law! What happened to the rule of law!" Back in the day, you used to be able to have extramarital sex with porn stars and pay them off when you ran for President. Now, with the breakdown of the rule of law, the Dementia Joe mob will come after you unmercifully if you do that. Back in the day, you used to be able to steal elections you lost by seven million votes. Now, thanks to Democratic Marxists who are destroying democracy, you can't steal elections anymore. What the fuck happened to America? It makes me cry and shit on myself. Speaking of which, I have personally shit on the desk of Bob Dole. I have personally peed all over the carpet of Tom Foley, when he was House Speaker. In the 1980's and 1990's I think I broke the arms, legs, or hands of at least half a dozen Capitol Security officers, and ransacked the desks of dozens of Senators. Now that we have this huge injustice in America, and the breakdown of the rule of law, you just can't do these things anymore. What happened to Mom, the flag, and apple pie? This is bipartisan cruelty. Whether it is Nancy Pelosi getting all riled up about her liberal carpet, PAID FOR BY US TAXPAYERS, or Kevin McCarthy verbally assaulting Donald Trump because patriots visited the Capitol, America has just gone pure apeshit. Let's not even get into calling some worthless RINO bureaucrat just to ask him to find thousands of votes so you can steal a state election. You can't even do THAT anymore, thanks to the breakdown of the rule of law. America is ruined. We need a Fuhrer. We need to restore the blood of the Reich.

Thanks for being honest. You don't care. You for sure don't care about your genocidal monster. Or the genocide of Ukrainians. I thought you might care about The Gays. Guess not.

Yup. Traditional values. Speaking of which. I know bigotry and hate is small ball compared to genocide. But it is another thing about your genocidal piece of shit monster that I just don't care much for. Russian court bans ‘LGBT movement’ as ‘extremist’ Russia’s Supreme Court has issued a ban on the activities of the ‘international LGBTQ movement’ in the latest crackdown on gay, lesbian and transgender rights in the country. Who knew genocide and the murder of women and children were traditional family values? And you wonder why the world looks at Russia with contempt and horror?

Oops. Now we're in the 18th Century. I know you are trying really hard to make the best of the horror that is Russia today, sweetie. But please try to be less pathetic.

Yes, the reason the whole world hates the US is because of things that happened in 1945, long before most of us were born. Or was it things that happened in 1865? Let me ask Kamala Harris and get back to you. Silly. Because Genocide Man has to sell all kinds of stuff to countries like India for real cheap to have enough money to turn Russians into fertilizer. Yeah, it's a fucked up way to run a country. But who ever thought Genocide Man was a good leader? I think China likes Russia pretty much, too. Everyone likes to buy stuff for cheap. And they can use your sadistic little pit bull for all kinds of geopolitical mischief. So as long as Master Xi needs his pit bull and can get cheap stuff, you're good with them. Woo hoo! Personally, I have no problem if Russia makes lots of money selling its resources for cheap as the world world looks at this genocidal piece of shit country and decides whether we just hate it, or want to buy cheap stuff from it, as it turns it people into fertilizer. It is good for the US. And good for China, too. As long as Master Xi can keep his sadistic pit bull under control. Ukraine suffers horribly. But you could fucking care less, since you're for genocide. You're good at Murder Math. By any ranking US GDP is about 10 times that of Russia. So every year that the US and Russia grow 2 or 3 %, it means we are ten times bigger than you to start with, and we grow ten times bigger and faster. Every year. And this is the money Genocide Man desperately needs to pay for his people being turned into fertilizer. You sure got a genius of a monster running your sad little country. Last I checked, people are kind of not cool with being turned into fertilizer. So Ukrainians want to kill Russians. And lots of Russians want to kill Putin, if they could. Not to mention the whole world looks down on Russia with contempt and horror. This is why so many experts think Russia as a federation will be history in a decade or two. Do you ever wonder which parts of Russia will be China in the future? Meanwhile, have fun making money selling your stuff for cheap, and turning Russians into fertilizer. Btw, do you guys think you can ramp up this thing so that maybe 1 million Russians a year or so can be turned into fertilizer? I know you have only so many prisons, even though your murder rate is sky high. And even with Genocide Man being a monster and all, there are only so many ethnic minorities that want to be paid to become grass. When Biden is re-elected there may be a problem in terms of this whole turning Russians into grass thing. I guess we have time to figure it out, though. By the way, none of this sadism and genocide is happening in 1945, or 1865. This is the horror happening in Russia today. Let's at least stick with the 21st Century, okay?

You're so predictable. Just like your genocidal monster. I of course knew you'd attack me that way. Which is my point. I don't have to be an expert. And this isn't rocket science. Everybody in the world now wants Russia to fail. Except Master Xi, who will use his sadistic pit bull and happily let Russia become weaker as his own economy flails. And India, who can get cheap stuff from Russia as it heads down the hell hole to breaking up. Your country is not even your own anymore. You are a product of China. Woo hoo! Everyone in the world can see clearly your genocidal sadist is flailing around as he pays Russians to kill and be turned into fertilizer. Your brightest people flee, and your poorest people become grass. Nobody wants to be Russian. Not even most Russians, probably, if they could speak honestly. Have fun with that while it lasts. Hope you're at least one of the ones making money off misery, death, and cruelty.

Michelle Obama’s mother, Marian Robinson, dies at 86 I love this "Gal's Interview", in which Gayle King really captured the love and respect between Mom and daughter. Marian Anderson: "My saying is, when I grow up I want to be like Michelle Obama." Who was whose rock?

And here is Lichtman in a new interview, answering your question directly. Trump’s guilty verdict will have ‘cataclysmic’ impact on election outcome I'm not sure that YouTube poster's headline accurately reflects what Lichtman said. I guessed above that the correct technical answer is it doesn't matter. Lichtman said it falls outside the context of his 13 keys. But he reiterated that a lot would have to change for Biden to lose. And there is every reason to think this helps Biden, not Trump. If it helped Trump, why would he be in whining loser bitch mode? We know that whenever Trump whines like a losing bitch, it is because he knows he is losing. Perceptions of Trump Guilty Verdict - HarrisX Overnight Poll - 31 May I think that documents why this is bad news that will keep being bad news for Trump. To put it in context, 538 posted two new polls today. Both of which presumably measure reactions after the verdict. In one (Ipsos) Biden is ahead by two points, and in one Trump is ahead by two points. That is the definition of tossup. This Harris poll is the one in which Trump is up by two points. So if this particular poll has a bias, it would probably be slightly favorable to Trump. It's also probably worth noting that in one version of the horse race question in this poll there was a 50/50 split. Trump only gets to a 51/49 lead when you add leaners. So this is very fragile. It's also worth noting that in this Harris poll, which is more favorable to Trump than the other poll, 86 % of Republicans will vote for Trump, and Independents split narrowly for Biden 51/49. So any small erosion this causes among Republican and Independent Trump supporters over the next five months will matter. That reinforces what Lichtman says in that interview. This is a tossup. 57 % of all voters, and 60 % of Independents, say Trump is "mostly guilty" in this Harris poll. Only 19 % of Republicans agree. 54 % of all voters, and 60 % of Independents, believe Trump received a fair trial. Only 16 % of Republicans agree. 56 % of all voters, and 62 % of Independents, think the 12 person jury was fair to Trump. Only 22 % of Republicans agree. My point is that this is kind of MAGA v. everyone else. All this anti-US and anti-judicial system nonsense he is spouting about a "rigged trial" and how this is a Biden witch hunt just doesn't resonate for most voters. Most voters think Trump got a fair trial from 12 ordinary people. And he is mostly guilty. The MAGA/Reichpublican line is that this is rigged, America is broken, and extraordinary measures are needed for our Fuhrer to restore the Reich, or whatever. That shit just scares most people. We are going to be talking about this for months. And it is not going to help mein Liebling. Oops. As much as I love him, I mean mein Fuhrer.

At one point in response to something I wrote, you said I don't really understand Russia. That is largely true. I don't claim to understand Russia. I don't really want to understand Russia. Because thinking about it makes me sad. Who really wants to think about how the families of poor ethnic Russians are paid a lot to send a husband or son to Ukraine, to be processed into fertilizer, so that corrupt Putin cock suckers in Moscow can get rich in a crooked war economy? It's sad. That said, I understand Putin is a product of the USSR. And that he will be viewed by history as one of the corrupt leaders who presided over the breakup of the Russian Federation. I think history is going to teach your genocidal leader a lesson. Just like the USSR learned a lesson. You don't understand the US. Don't pretend to. If you think 75 % of Independents will vote for either Biden or Trump, you are basically saying, "I'm one of those totally ignorant people who just says stupid shit on the internet." However this breaks, Independents will make a huge difference at the margin. But it will be statistically small. So you don't know WTF you are talking about. Can't blame you, really. About half of Americans - mostly Trump supporters - think unemployment is at a 50 year high. (It's at a 50 year low.) And that the S & P 500 is way down for the year. (It's way up.) So join Club Ignorance. Trump supporters - at least the MAGA sect - seem to like Genocide Man, and his genocide. You'll fit right in. Independents will break one way or the other, but it will be by narrow margins. And in this toss up race (it is a tossup today, around the start of June) that narrow margin may be determinative. In 2008 Obama won Independents 52/44 in a landslide victory. But he narrowly lost them to Romney in 2012, including in most swing states. Trump won Independents 46/42 in 2016. Biden won Independents 54/41 in 2020. So no candidate will get 75 % of the Independent vote. And I think the best explanation for why Obama won in 2012 despite losing the Independent vote is that Blacks and young voters turned out in droves and supported him. Same as they did for Biden in 2020. Increasingly, at least among voters under 40, "Independent" usually means I do not align with any political party, but I tend to vote Democratic. Or, at least, used to. Which is why the Black vote and the youth vote matter so much. No one knows who will actually turn out, and which way they will break. None of this matters in Russia, of course. Elections for Putin are rigged, the judicial system is rigged, murder rates are higher, and journalists and political opponents who give Putin trouble often end up dead.

Aw! How sad! A new poll shows Biden two points ahead of Trump. But that's within the poll's margin of error. I'm sure Dementia Joe is stilling losing. Or is it Genocide Joe? Whatever. Biden sucks und mein Hauptman is going to win. Exclusive: One in 10 Republicans less likely to vote for Trump after guilty verdict, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Lying scumbag media! See how they all try to cover Dementia Joe's ass! This is bullshit. These are America hating lies. This is a conspiracy. Mein Fuhrer Leader God Donald J. Trump and his Reich are what everyone wants and needs. Not Genocide Joe! Real patriots love chaos! Real patriots love it when NOTHING GETS DONE! God bless eight Reichpublican Senators for saying they will agree to NOTHING and do NOTHING with Democrats because of their hateful deceptive America destroying abuse of justice with this verdict. Americans HATE IT when there is all this bipartisan nonsense about gun control or building chip factories or whatever. Americans love DO NOTHING Reichpublicans, unless what they are doing is cutting taxes for rich victims like Mein Fuhrer Donald J. Trump or cutting Obamacare for the illegal Black and Brown scumbag filth. I mean the illegals, who are taking our jobs and housing, not the Blacks and Hispanics we need to vote for the least racist Fuhrer in America. This is bullshit!

Damn! That was quick! Thanks Randy.

One asshole, two questions, three videos, four verdicts. Question one. Now that a jury has confirmed that the whiny ass lying scumbag asshole is guilty, like we all knew he was, can't we just speed dial the other three verdicts? I have to believe even his cult tires of the whining lies. Question two. When do we get the third "DJT Does Crime The Best! " version of Randy Rainbow's Cell Block Tango?

No, silly. Not at all. cult /kəlt/ noun a misplaced or excessive admiration for a particular person or thing. "a cult of personality surrounding the leaders"

Funny. Republicans painted themselves into a corner when they nominated Trump. Wanna bet 100 shares of DJT over this? The reason I say let's bet DJT stock is it will be worthless soon, anyway. So it's a gentleman's bet. Trump will lose, because the MAGA cult nominated the worst candidate they could. If the goal was to beat Biden. Your problem is the exact opposite. About 70 % of Republicans will stand behind Trump regardless of indictments, idiocy, or shooting someone on 5th Ave. Why not? It's a cult. The problem with this approach is that 70 % of Trump adoring Republicans are maybe one-third or so of Americans. Which is why you folks are moving further and further down the slippery slope of wanting lies fascism Reich-like rule authoritarianism minority rule. But thank you for confirming a point I have made repeatedly. There is no evidence in any poll that Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, or any Democrat who wants to be POTUS would do any better than Biden. So all this nonsense about how Biden should drop out or be ditched so that someone who can win can replace him is just that ............... nonsense. Team MAGA is doing Biden another kindness, which I deeply appreciate. It's becoming clearer and clearer to me that the reason (name any Democrat running for Senate in a swing state, plus Brown, plus Tester] are ahead in polls is because people prefer the populist working class politics they articulate. It is equally clear that the reason Biden can't close the deal is a lot of voters, especially young voters, are feeling the pain of rentflation and high mortgages rates, especially. It's quite possible that absolutely nothing Biden can do will give them a reason to vote FOR him. So what Biden needs is for Trump to give young voters a reason to vote AGAINST him. Trump is doing that exceptionally well, as always. In some polls up to 10 % of young voters say they won't vote for Trump if he is found guilty. We'll all know soon enough. That is one I would not bet on, and am curious to see how it plays out. Thank you for also confirming that it is just stupid to expect anyone associated with Trump or MAGA to demonstrate any logic, whatsoever. First, Trump was behind in the polls almost all the time in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Yet he won in 2016. And you guys want to push the cop-abusing lie that he won in 2020. So it's just illogical to argue that being 1 % behind in the poll averages in May means you will lose. The even dumber as shit thing is that it does make common sense that if you are 20 % behind, you will probably lose. But if the idea is that if you are 1 % behind, you should drop out or be kicked out, it literally means that any candidate who is not winning - including Trump in 2016 and 2020 - should have been ditched. It just makes no fucking sense. Why am I not surprised?

Skyrocketing rents and home prices may be pivotal in the 2024 election And there you have it. I'm glad Democrats and the left-of-center media have finally caught on. It is telling. Most politicians and reporters probably own homes. If not, they certainly make decent incomes. So if there were a poll of politicians and reporters, I doubt they would say housing is their personal "pain point". But as this argument documents very nicely, it is for lots of working class and young Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and Whites. They don't really say why they picked Las Vegas to profile. Other than it has a particularly bad housing supply shortage. It's also the swing state Biden won in 2020 that he is now usually furthest behind in, in polls. It is kind of the perfect storm. As the article says, the workforce structure in Vegas is such that many of the most common jobs don't pay enough for the people who work them to be able to afford rent. Which is going through the roof. Ouch! There is some part of me that feels if the Democrats, my party, is so fucked up that they can not figure this out, they deserve to lose. The only problem with my idea is that Trump and Republicans won't solve the problem, ether. This is an interesting issue for Trump, who is a real estate guy and builder. To me, it really exposes what an absolute and total fraud and piece of shit he was and will be as a leader. There was a brief moment in late 2016 and early 2017, right after Trump won, when all kinds of lefty journalists were freaking out. The narrative went like this: Oh my God! What if Trump is secretly a centrist? What if he is secretly competent and effective? What if he can actually get an infrastructure bill passed? I thought, Geez. That would be a nice problem to have. My point is that, had any of that been true, the most obvious thing in the world is The Smartest Builder In The Galaxy, Ever surely could have figured out how to get the federal government to stimulate massive affordable housing development. By Spring 2017 all the bed wetting journalists figured out that Trump doesn't exist, and never did. He is a narcissistic old gas bag and TV star and con man. Democrats have been there and done this before. Black homeownership was higher than it has ever been in 2000, thanks to Clinton taking all this public/private partnership stuff grassroots CDCs had been building gradually for decades and putting it on steroids through a federal focus on affordable and fair and sound mortgage lending. Black and Latino and working class White homeownership rates - and net worth - soared. The right wing loves to blame Clinton for subprime and 2008. But they are completely ignorant. Clinton left office in 2001. The mortgages made on his watch had nothing to do with subprime, which started in earnest when W. was POTUS and the Republicans ran everything. Most important, the built in reality check was the 2001 recession. If all these crappy mortgages had been made in 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000, the 2001 recession was the perfect time for them to go belly up. It didn't happen. My point is that the federal government, under Clinton, did what Republicans always say they want. It used capitalism and the free market, with a push from the federal government and community groups, to build wealth and economic stability among aspiring working class people of every race. If Democrats can not figure out how to do this now, they are stupid and lack vision. And they deserve to lose. Yes, this is complicated. But so was taking out Hitler. So was putting a man on the moon. So was Trump himself pushing for a vaccine that, in record time, took out a virus that killed 1 million Americans. Compared to those three things, and many more, this is a piece of cake. People love construction jobs. Home Depot loves selling building supplies. What is the problem? I think the sad diagnosis, which is why so many Americans don't like their choices, is that neither Trump nor Biden will get this done. Trump has proven he lacks the political skills. What surprises me a little, as a builder with grand ideas, is that he doesn't have the vision to do this. Call me biased. But I think it is because his main vision is of him being The Big Guy who sits behind the desk and is adored as he lies and pats himself on the back. Biden definitely has the political skills, as he has proven time and again. I doubt he has the vision. I hope if he wins a second term I am wrong. Because he should be able to do something like what Clinton did 30 years ago. My best guess is that Biden will turn out to be right, that he is a transitional figure. Nobody young really sees him as their leader. Even if they are the ones who elected him, and will re-elect him. That Youth Vote survey of top issues - all about kitchen table economics - screams for a new vision that is more like Bernie Sanders than Donald Trump. And at some point Millennials and Gen Z will be the predominant voting bloc in America. So even if Biden wins my guess is the pressure will just build for some new post-Trump and post-Biden leader and vision to come along in 2028.

Thanks, Allan. 😉 Speaking of which.

So I will add a poll, a quote, and of course another long rant. The survey: Harvard Youth Poll The quote: I bold-faced that last quote, because that is probably what the 2024 election turns on. If you are not a policy wonk like @EmmetK and I, Della Volpe is the guy who everyone talks to about the youth vote. So in 2022 Stephanie Ruhle had him and his young partners in crime on TV all the time. He predicted that young voters would turn out, and have something to say about this hypothetical red wave. Everything he said in 2022, and 2020, pretty much turned out to be spot on. I would not dismiss him when he says the choice between Trump and Biden "isn't necessarily close." So if you ask me why Biden won in 2020, I'd say, "Young voters." If you asked me who stopped the red wave in 2022, I'd say, "Young voters." If you ask me why Biden is hurting in the polls now, I'd say, "Young voters." If you ask me why Biden will win in 2024, I'd say, "Young voters." If I am wrong and Biden loses in 2024, why might I be wrong? Young voters. We don't have a crystal ball about what young voters will do in five months. But we do have "facts" about what they are saying now. And those "facts" are just plain fucked up. So if anyone understands the facts, can you please explain them to me? The Harris Poll says that Trump is beating Biden by 5 points. It also says that among 18-24 year olds Trump is beating Biden 40/39, with 16 % going to RFK. 25 to 34 year olds are also split, 42/41 for Biden, with 13 % going for RFK. So are we saying a young cohort that voted 2 to 1 against Trump or Trump/MAGA candidates or policies in 2018, 2020, and 2022 are now evenly split? I just don't believe it. In that hyperlink above Della Volpe says a lot of these polls now talk to a sample size of maybe 200 young voters and think they got it right. Harris has a sample size of 277 voters aged 18-24. Call me a skeptic. You Gov's most recent poll says Trump is beating Biden by 1 %. So, basically, a statistical tie. They say 18-29 year olds are for Biden over Trump 41/27, with 5 % for RFK. A 13 percent margin is small compared to the whopping pro-Democratic youth vote margins of 2018, 2020, or 2022. But it seems closer to the reality of what happened during those recent elections. YouGov says 30-40 year olds are for Biden are for 43/32,with 6 % for RFK. The difference between these two sets of "facts" about young voters pretty much explains the difference between whether Trump is leading Biden by something like five points, or the race is a toss up. And none of this is about some prediction Lichtman is making about November. This is simply about the "facts" of what young voters say they plan to do right now. In one reality, all these young people who were firmly against Trump, his candidates, and his policies by up to 2 to 1 margins for three elections in a row are now split, and have fond memories of how well Trump governed. In the other, they are still against Trump by pretty wide margins. Huh? So what does Della Volpe say, since they do this "more robust" poll of young people every year, that he says is more accurate? That's all over the map, too. Again, I'd read the whole report. But this chart shows why nobody knows what is going to happen: You can have your reality any way you like it. If we are talking about all young people, the results look more like what Harris is saying: they are nearly split between Biden and Trump. And by double digit percentages they plan to vote for someone other than those two. But these are the ones who get their politics from rants on TikTok and think the S & P is down for the year and unemployment is at a 50 year high, not low. If we are talking about likely voters, the 43/30 split for Biden is a lot like the 41/27 split for Biden YouGov is reporting. Again, unless what happens in every single election in my lifetime changes, at least half the voters who say they are going to vote for RFK, Stein, or West in polls in May will actually not do so in November. How likely is it that people who prefer West or Stein in May, and voted against Trump or his candidates in 2018, 2020, or 2022, will vote for Trump in 2024? I ain't gonna hold me breath for that. If you read the full survey above, in a two way race Biden had a 19 point lead over Trump among 18-29 year old voters. So a lot of RFK/Stein/West voters today will probably be Biden voters in November, even if they're holding their nose. The reason I am gonna hold my breath is that issue poll above. It confirms everything Ramit Sethi said in the interview on inflation I posted above. Trump might win. And the reason he might win is complicated. Young voters are not happy about inflation, or housing, or the economy. In their own eyes, it's clear they have better reasons to vote against Trump than they have to vote for Biden. If you are young and Black, the #1 issue is housing. Which probably means the rent is too high. If you are young and Hispanic, housing is the #2 issue, tied with affordable health care. The only priority that is slightly higher is gun violence. Young White voters do say inflation is their #1 issue, with healthcare #2 and housing in the middle of the list. I'm really curious what "inflation" means to young White voters who say it is their top issue. The part about rent and sky home home prices, I get. But, like Sethi said in the interview, I doubt most young voters or any voters really know what they paid for milk or bread in 2020 or 2016. And they are still somehow managing to buy the same milk and the same bread. This is why every poll between now and November could be wrong. Who knows what these voters will actually do? Including whether they will actually vote? My main reason for thinking Lichtman will be right again, other than his perfect track record, is that I do agree with him that elections really are about governing. And not just bullshit There is no evidence most young people, at least those who actually have voted, actually liked how Trump governed. More important, it's early days. But I see no evidence that Trump is offering young voters reason to think he will govern in a way they like in 2025, if they elect him. Blacks interested in affordable health care? Hispanics interested in reducing gun violence? Give me a break. Let's not even get started on women and abortion. Even by Trump standards, it seems rich to go to New York City, where he started his real estate career by being sued by the Justice Dept. for racial discrimination in rental housing, to tell people it doesn't matter if you are Black or Brown. We're all Americans. But let's give him a break. People change. Or, at least, young voters don't know, or care, what the fuck he did in 1973. So is Trump, a builder, proposing to build millions of units of affordable housing, like Biden did in Build Back Better and Sethi thinks young people want and need? Is he, like RFK Jr., saying that if banks can't offer you affordable 3 % fixed rate mortgages, the government will - at no expense to taxpayers? Nope. He's saying Black and Brown Americans should vote for him, because Black and Brown immigrants are trying to take your housing and jobs away. And they need to be deported. Man, woman, and child. Okay, he did not literally spell out that most of the immigrants he wants to deport happen to be Black or Brown. But they are. So I'm not sure how well that resonates as housing policy for young Black and Hispanic voters who actually see it as their top issue. And are not happy about rentflation and mortgage rates under Biden. Right wing Goebbels wannabe Mollie Hemingway just called this "Trump's unbridled multi-ethnic optimism", as opposed to Biden's "race-baiting rhetoric." I do think this is a debate Biden wants. Because I don't think Trump wins this debate with young Black and Brown voters. We'll see.

So basically you are saying Trump is a sweetheart under the gruff exterior? Or the opposite. Is this why he has been taking about Hannibal Lector recently?

Probably the most technically correct answer is, it doesn't. The only key that has anything to do with the challenger is the "charisma" key. The two Presidents since he started predicting in 1984 Lichtman gave that to were Reagan and Obama - but only in 2008. I think in practice what it means for Lichtman is that Reagan in 84 and Obama in 2008 (but not 2012) were "charismatic" in the sense that they were able to rise above their narrow partisan base. Like Ike, a war hero, was also able to do. Whereas by 2012 Obama was basically seen as a divisive partisan figure. The thing that I like most about Lichtman is that his keys not only have worked in practice, but they also make common sense. And they are complimentary. The idea is that people actually care about important things, like war and peace and the economy. All the stupid stuff that happens in ads and on social media has very little to do with the outcome. Which is why the polls are often so unreliable. And the other core tenet is that the election is always the incumbent partys to win or lose. So it makes common sense to me that the challenger doesn't really matter, unless and until the incumbent party governs in a way that people give it a thumbs down. Or if the challenger is so broadly popular or heroic that they draw people to them. I think 2016 is a great example of that, as Lichtman views the world. He has said that given the way the keys fell, against the incumbent Democratic Party, anyone running against Hillary would have won. I'm pretty sure (going from imperfect memory) that he has said if the GOP had nominated someone more conventional, like Kasich, Republicans would have probably won more decisively in 2016. As it relates to his keys, he has been very consistent in saying Trump doesn't qualify as charismatic, because he basically only appeals to a narrow partisan base. He also said this in a recent interview: I'm a little surprised he said that. I have watched lots of interviews or speeches he gave. His standard position, which makes sense to me, is that his system is based on patterns in every Presidential election since the Civil War. So in over a century and a half of elections we have seen pretty much everything under the sun already. Including all kinds of scandal. In fact, impeachment was one of the keys Lichtman counted against Trump when he predicted he would lose in 2020. Some of these keys obviously depend on subjective judgment. Like what is "charisma"? Lichtman also said that he has shorter versions of his keys that can predict something like 90 % of Presidential elections based on fewer factors. Incumbency and whether or not the party in power has a huge divisive internal fight (like in 2016) are particularly useful keys for predicting, he has said. But the reason they did 13 keys is that, at least so far, that many keys have been able to predict with 100 % accuracy. The common sense way I view 2024 is that, unless something changes dramatically like it did in 2020 due to COVID, Biden is nowhere near getting a thumbs down rating - despite what the polls say right now. He has only two keys definitely against him now, so four more would have to turn against him to lose. (I'm no Lichtman, but IMHO Biden won't get a foreign policy win, and RFK may get a big chunk of votes. So that would make two more keys against Biden. But that still means Biden would win.) Either you believe that, or you don't. I do believe Lichtman is right, obviously. My interpretation of Lichtman's keys is that where Trump and his trials enter in is that to the degree that there is any opening for a challenger to win, Trump is simply NOT the right guy. The trial probably can not help, even if there is a mistrial. And it probably can hurt, if we believe the polls that say a guilty verdict will disqualify him with some swing voters. @TotallyOz nailed it last year when he called out Nikki Haley as probably the best Republican alternative to Trump. I was singing Tim Scott's praises at the time. But Haley was the one who got some traction. At least to the degree that anyone could compete with a cult leader. This may sound off now, especially to cultists like @EmmetK. But I really do believe Republicans sealed their fate when they nominated Trump. Had they gone for Haley I think they would have had a better chance of winning. We'll see.

Always happy to help a friend. 😉 But I of course knew this already. The cult you belong to obviously feels the same way about newspapers, and facts in general. Puts you to sleep. You're immune to logic. It shows in each of your posts. The cruelty and lack of fact about living in Trump Cult World is now well documented. Until recently I did assume that all these cult members who think we are in a recession are simply talking about how they feel. So it is not factually wrong to say, "Geez, it sure feels like a recession to me." It won't explain reality when Biden wins. But the cult, by definition, is not particularly interested in understanding reality. Or winning, when they choose a loser like Trump. Cultish feelings and cruelty don't explain why half of Americans think the S & P is down for the year, when it was up 12 % when the poll was taken, after being up 24 % last year. Cultish feelings and cruelty don't explain why half of Americans think unemployment is at a 50 year high, not a 50 year low. Cultish feelings and cruelty do explain why you are immune from facts. And why facts put you to sleep. And why most Americans who believe factually incorrect things like this are Trumpy truthy folks. You would rather live in an alternative reality that thinks America sucks when it is not being led by a narcissistic authoritarian. I get that, @EmmetK. Being in the Trump cult leaves no room for facts, or logic. It's all about devotion to an authoritarian loser who has a thing for seeing cops tortured and beaten up. And lies. And cruelty. Since @EmmetK is now happily asleep, it won't disturb his alternative reality to post this: The whole article that is from has a lot of interesting facts about stocks, financial perceptions, and reality. But for those of us in a cult that simply buy DJT, none of this matters, of course. That chart and article are NOT pushing forecasts or predictions, like Lichtman. The author points out that the Forecaster's Hall Of Fame has zero members (other than Lichtman, of course). But I will note (if you can tolerate facts) that Biden's term has followed the typical pattern of Presidents and stock market returns, in several ways. There's another chart in that article that says Years 1 and 3 are usually the ones with the best stock market returns. That was true of Biden, with the S & P up 28 % in 2021 and 24 % in 2023. Year 2 is usually the worst. Again, very true of Biden, when the S & P was down 18 %. So far, the S & P in 2024 has been following the typical pattern of years when the incumbent party wins, as you can see above. In fact, like Years 1 and 3 of Biden's first term, it has way outperformed the typical gains in a year the incumbent POTUS wins. We've had the typical April/May dip, which happily gave my "data driven" nephew and me a chance to load up on even more SOXL in the $30's and $40's. My nephew, who bet the store on SOXL in Fall 2022 at about $8 a share, is now a millionaire. My net worth only went up about $60,000 so far thanks to that stock. Boo hoo! I played it way more conservative than he did. But if the chart above turns out to be correct, and the market ends the year higher than it is today, we have nothing to complain about. Other than having to pays lots of capital gains tax to re-elected President Biden (and, in my case, Guv Gavin) in 2025. It's a nice problem to have. But sorry to be boring and repetitive. I am sure when @EmmetK wakes up his investment in Trump, the cult, and DJT will have paid off marvelously. Who needs facts, anyway?

The Veep pick should matter more, given the age of both candidates. This Rant 2.0 isn't in response to anything you said, @lookin. I just think it is funny that as soon as I posted my rant above, I went to Real Clear Politics. And there was today's perfect example of what I ranted about. Biden is denying reality - he's losing this election I think the only logical explanation is that a lot of reporters are lazy. To speculate about why Biden should quit, all they have to do is cite a poll, or maybe two. And then speculate about a lot of total bullshit. I also have to assume they must be pretty stupid. Or cynical, because they think most people who read what they write are stupid and won't notice the total lack of logic. The most obvious problem is this: since when is being 1 % behind in poll averages in May "losing this election"? If the idea is that any candidate who is 1 % behind should step aside, then the basic idea here is that in almost every election, one or both candidates should step aside. The next most obvious problem is: for who else to run? As I said above, all these geniuses seem to just overlook the fact that if Biden doesn't run, someone else has to. And if the whole idea is that Biden should do his country and party a service because he's going to lose, one might think there'd be just a teeny little focus on the question of who else might run instead. And whether they have any realistic hope of doing any better. Usually what passes for rational thought is something like "Michelle Obama". Which, as you are realistic enough to admit, @lookin, is wishful thinking. What almost every poll I have seen says, as I cited above, is that [name any Democrat] would do worse than Biden against Trump. Plus, every primary poll showed that Biden was Democrats' first choice. And if he didn't run the likely next first choice was Harris - including in hypothetical horse races against Michelle Obama and Bernie Sanders. The third thing that is almost offensive about all these articles is they just completely ignore the fact that it would be monumentally un-democratic to say, "Fuck what voters just said. Fuck those dimwits. Fuck people who voted for Biden thinking he can win. Fuck em, fuck em, fuck em. They are stupid. Fuck em. We're nominating [fill in the name of a Democrat] instead." It would be especially stupid to do this in 2024. There is pretty good evidence, based on tons of polls, that the argument that Trump is a threat to democracy resonated with a lot of centrist voters in 2022. And it is resonating again in 2024. So if the way to win that argument is for Democrats to trump Trump's abuses of democracy, like Jan. 6th, and just decide to ignore actual voters and nominate someone else, that's just digging our own grave. This article seems particularly stupid, in that the author didn't even bother to research or think through the very few actual facts he cites. So there is this: In an article with almost no facts and tons of bullshit, you'd think the guy could get the few facts he uses right. In mid-October 2012 Obama was 1 % behind Romney in the RCP average. Lichtman said Obama was going to win, and he did. We're saying that because Biden is 1 % behind Trump in May we know he is going to lose? Huh? The even more obvious example is that Trump was behind Clinton in 2016 at almost every point. And he still won. Technically, the statement above is correct, because Trump has never won the popular vote. But he's the poster child for the idea that you can be behind in polls, and dismissed by everybody, and still win. The more appropriate example for Joe Biden is Harry Truman in 1948, which the author is at least honest enough to cite. Here's what the races in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin looked like on June 1, 2016: In Pennsylvania, Clinton led Trump by 5.3 % at the beginning of June in the RCP average. Right now Trump is leading Biden by 2.3 % in Pennsylvania In Michigan, Clinton led Trump by 8.3 % at the beginning of June in the RCP average. Right now Trump is leading Biden by 1.1 % in Michigan. In Wisconsin, Clinton led Trump by 11.6 % at the beginning of June in the RCP average. Right now Trump is leading Biden by a whopping 0.1 % in Wisconsin. If you believe that whoever is ahead in the polls in May is going to win, then obviously Trump stole the 2016 election! I don't think ignorant MAGA cultists who post here have quite thought that through. I think you can make a decent argument, based on the polls above, that Trump has some superpower that allows him to always do better than the polls predict. Including polls right before the election. There is logic to that. If he outperformed the polls when he was behind, won't he also outperform the polls when he is ahead? It is barely true that Trump outperformed polls in the past. The final RCP poll average in 2016 said Clinton would win the popular vote by 2.8 %. She won by 2.1 % There was a bigger difference in 2020. RCP's final poll average said Biden would win by 7.8 %. He won by 4.5 %. So, twice, Trump outperformed what the final polls said he would do. But we have no idea what the polls will say in late October. And it's not logical to think that Trump has some superpower that somehow allows him to always outperform the polls. What we know for a fact is that he lost the popular vote in 2016, he lost the popular vote in 2020, and he has the slimmest of leads right now in 2024. That does not make Trump a juggernaut. It makes him a weak candidate. One alternative to MAGA's cultish superpower theory about Trump, which I think is based on their preference for authoritarian leaders, is Lichtman's theory of governance. It is actual good news in a democracy, and a compliment to voters, that Lichtman thinks incumbent parties win or lose based on how well they have actually governed. So you can believe Trump won in 2016 because he has some superpower. Or you can believe Lichtman's theory of governance. In 2016 Obama had no second term successes, in part because a Republican Congress blocked him. Democrats got clobbered in the 2014 midterms, which signaled rumblings of an earthquake. Hillary was unable to build broad appeal beyond her partisan base. And the final two nails in her coffin were that she was not an incumbent, and the 2016 primary tore her party apart. Lichtman's theory is that Americans care about actual governance, and these were the things that hurt Clinton and created an opening for Trump. We of course can't prove that Lichtman is correct. But we do know that he uses the same theory every four years to accurately predict who will win every time. That 's not a superpower. That is just being smart, and paying attention to facts. If you buy Lichtman's theory of governance, Americans are likely to do what they did in 1948: re-elect someone who they basically have a grudge with, in large part due to inflation. But who they decided governed at least adequately. There's another theory I have read about 1948 that I think applies to 2024. People may not have liked Truman all that much. But they did like FDR/New Deal governance and wanted to continue it. Of course, the New Deal coalition fell apart at least half a century ago. But there is a similar enough fight over what people want in 2024 that has not even started yet. And that is probably going to make a difference. Trump 1.0 was about tax cuts to the rich and corporations, and trying to kill Obamacare. That's not what people want more of. If people did want more of that, Brown and Tester would be way behind in polls. And all these Democratic Senators like Tammy Baldwin leading in swing states would be losing. So it's fine to say inflation sucks and immigrants suck. But that is not enough for Trump to win. My guess is part of the reason Biden wants a debate early is that he knows he is in a difficult position, and could lose. But once the election is about abortion, and democracy, and cutting taxes more for the rich, and child tax credits that help the working class, and getting rid of affordable health care, that may change this nostalgia for how awesome Trump 1.0 was. I'm pretty sure the Trump cult are the ones in denial here. They are taking polls that say Trump has the narrowest of leads, and assuming that means they will win in November. Democrats, meanwhile, are the ones wetting the bed about Biden losing. The thing that seems the most unrealistic about what the cult's intellectual leaders are saying (can we even call them intellectuals?) is that they actually think Trump will win the youth vote. Or at least split it with Biden. What election in 2020, or 2021, or 2022, or 2023, or so far in 2024 tells us that young voters want conservative policies to restrict abortions, and cut taxes for rich people and corporations? Not to mention making life harder for The Gays, The Illegals, and the Ethnics. I think the Trump cult have their heads so far up their asses that they think all this indignation about how Biden is NOT PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH is somehow going to translate into votes for Trump. I think Lichtman is right. The Trump cult is going to be very disappointed when young voters hold their nose and vote for Biden.

This one will be relatively brief. I am really scared. It's not just that Charlie Cook is nonpartisan. It is that he is insightful, wicked smart, and pretty much always right. Charlie Cook: Hillary Clinton Will Win in November My own favorite Cook phrase is one he came up with in 2018: "color intensifier." I truly thought that nailed it. What it meant is that Trump managed to make red states redder, and blue states bluer. That helps explain why Senators McCaskill, Heitkamp, and Donnelly (Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana) were taken out in red states, even as Democrats took control of the House by romping in blue districts. A similar "color intensifier" effect would suggest why Democratic Senate candidates are leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, all of which Biden won in 2020. And which we know from Guv and state and court races have tended to vote Democratic lately. With exceptions, like Nevada electing a Republican Guv. This does not explain why Tester and Brown are ahead in Montana and Ohio. They should be far behind. There is no correct answer, yet. But the most logical answer to me is that Biden has an age and inflation problem, and it is dragging him down. It means maybe Trump can close the deal. Maybe by talking more about how helping billionaires and big corporations and Putin is good for the working class. And how taking Brown and Black children and all those various ethnic types out of homes they have no right to live in and deporting them is what America is all about. There is absolutely nothing racist about deporting ethnic children who have no right to live here. Don't count on that, though. Not yet, at least. I think the election is Biden's to lose. And he certainly has not lost it yet.