stevenkesslar

And I wasn't saying you were, of course. We don't disagree. My point was that Lichtman argues, right or wrong, that governance and competence are what people will actually vote on. That said, Biden's lack of charisma is implicitly baked in to the cake of Lichtman's keys, but as only one of 13 factors. I'd argue more like 16 years. Obama was the one who talked about the fever breaking after the 2012 election. Instead, it got worse. I think it's just objectively true that Biden did the best job of any POTUS since 2008 in actually getting substantive bipartisan deals passed. Were he the Joe Biden of 2008 or 2012 or even 2020, that would be enough. Even if I assume Kamala will become the nominee and win, her prospects of making legislative deals look pretty grim - for exactly the reasons you state. There's no reason to believe the MAGA faithful will let up and tolerate centrist deal making, even if Trump adds 2024 to the long list of MAGA losses in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023. The odds of her winning AND having a Democratic majority in both the House and Senate are slim. That said, the party seems to be quickly moving to the idea that her odds are better than Biden's at this point.

Opinion: Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer could make a winning ticket for Democrats Great piece arguing for a Harris/Whitmer ticket. The author ticks off all my reasons for thinking it makes sense. In one word: "Michigan." In a sentence: I've been reading lots of articles, mostly by fact-free cultists but also from some Democrats, saying Harris is a shitty debater. They must not have watched Harris on debate night deftly explaining away Biden's own incoherence. Granted, in 2020 Mike Pence got the sympathy vote since a fly landed on his head. 😉 Nevertheless three polls says Harris won that debate. A Morning Consult poll said she won 51/40. A CNN poll said she won 59/38. 538 asked a bunch of questions, and found that Kamala's approval rating among viewers of the debate in 2020 increased from 45 % before the debate to 51 % after. Her disapproval rating went from 40 % before to 41 % after. Asked whose performance was "very good or somewhat good", 69 % said Harris's performance met that standard and 60 % said Pence's performance did. Asked how well they did outlining their policies, 62 % said Kamala did "very good or somewhat good" and 44 % said Pence did the same. More relevant to 2024, only 33 % said Trump's performance was "very good or somewhat good" in the first 2020 Presidential debate. So much for Kamala being an easy debate target for Trump. Presidential Historian: Dropping Biden Won't Help Democrats That's Lichtman yet again in a brand new WSJ piece. Obviously lots of serious journalists recognize his track record and are asking his opinion. That headline gets it right. If you buy his Keys, dropping Biden can not do anything to help Democrats. But they can do it in a way that also won't hurt Democrats. Lichtman says again that Biden resigning so that Harris can run as incumbent and be selected without a divisive intraparty brawl keeps the same incumbency key and party contest key safe for Democrats. Ezra Klein had a piece in the New York Times today praising Jim Clyburn's idea of a so-called "mini-primary" if Biden drops out. I found that interesting, and clever on Clyburn's part. In my view of the world, Clyburn single-handedly choreographed the election of Biden in 2020 by bringing him back from the dead in South Carolina. He also pushed Biden to choose Kamala as his Veep. He is now making it clear that if Biden is not the nominee, he's with Kamala. I think Pelosi and Clyburn are the wise ones in the room. If Biden is pushed out, they will likely be among the top Democrats delivering the message in private. And they will choreograph something that looks competitive to chose his replacement, but is mainly designed to keep the party unified behind Harris and against Trump.

Why do you hate facts, @EmmetK? What did facts do to you? Did they rape you, like your raping cult leader? Did they lie to you, like your lying cult leader? Oh, wait. Facts don't lie. But you don't know the difference between facts and lies. Is it possible YOU have a cognitive disorder, @EmmetK? VERY URGENT: A Parkinson's disease specialist has visited the White House residence medical clinic at least nine times since July 2023 An earlier version of this story referred to one visit to The White House by Dr. Cannard earlier this year. Which implied maybe they checked Biden for Parkinson's and found nothing worth tracking. Nine visits ending in late March with no logs available afterward suggests something different. No doubt this will fuel a whole new cycle of questions. Since @EmmetK may be suffering from cognitive decline, or just likes outrageous lies told by cult leaders, let's spell out a few facts. 1. Parkinson's involves cognitive decline, but is not dementia. 2. Biden has no known diagnosis of either dementia or Parkinson's. So he does not have "obvious" dementia. And most people without cognitive decline would realize that "obvious" things can not be hidden. Poor @EmmetK. What did facts do to him? 3. While Parkinson's is not fatal, the internet says it can reduce life span by 1-2 years. The average life span of someone with Parkinson's is 81. Biden is 81. 4. While we do not know, for a fact, the average political life span of a sitting POTUS who blew a debate and is now perhaps suspected of suffering from early stage Parkinson's, my guess is the average political life span will be something like one week to one month. If these dots connect, good luck Joe.

I don't think this has been posted. John Oliver did a great piece on Project 2025. Spoiler alert: If you like MILFs, there are three bonus sexy clips included. If you get off watching hot older conservatives get angry, nothing makes me cum more than watching Larry Kudlow flail his arms around while ranting, "Impound! Impound! Impound!"

I know I am broken record about Allan Lichtman. But this is where he gets really interesting. I'm very pragmatic. So what sells Lichtman to me is simply that he's been right, in advance, either 9 or 10 times out of 10 in predicting who would win POTUS, based on his Keys system. (He predicted Gore in 2000, which was razor tight.) So he'd say charisma, or any personal quality of the candidate, is one of 13 keys. But legislative wins counts as a key, and the economy counts as two keys. More generally, his argument is that Administrations win because of how well they governed, not how they campaign. And in 2024, he says, Biden is poised to win unless lots of other things go wrong (like mass social unrest, a big military failure, as well as other keys). It's an oddly radical concept. In a democracy, you'd think it's all about how we try to elect good leaders who govern well. Not about how good a stump speaker, or even how good a debater, you are. And certainly not how good their stupid 30 second commercials or slogans or red hats are. But it is true that we've been trained by pollsters and pundits with their own short term interests to think it's really the day to day horse race that matters most. Biden is arguing pay attention to what I did in 3.5 years, not how I spoke for 90 minutes while I was sick. And Lichtman basically is saying Biden is right. Forget the polls and the whims of voters in June. In November they will give a thumbs up or thumbs down. And based on his Keys - good economy, significant achievements, incumbent with a mostly united party and no personal scandal like Trump - Biden will likely win. If Biden does survive the current crisis and remains the Democratic nominee, it will certainly be a good test of concept. The big disconnect between voters and Biden right now is that Biden wants us to focus on the past - what he did. But voters are worried about the future - what he will be capable of doing in 2026 or 2027. It's very difficult to say voters are wrong, and Biden will somehow be stronger and more articulate in 2027. But Lichtman's quantitative approach basically says it is the past that matters most. It's really going to be a thumbs up or thumbs down on what happened in Biden's (or Harris's) first term. As a Democrat who wants Biden and Harris to win, I sure hope he is right. If I assume Biden wins and in 2025 he is diagnosed with Parkinson's or dementia or just looks very old and frail, it's not a comforting concept. But this is where Stu Stevens, the 2012 Romney strategist who is now a Lincoln Project Never Trumper, would say just grow a God damn spine. If that happens, which is an unknown, that is why we have a Veep like Harris. Worry about it later, not now. Again, Lichtman would say Stevens is right. If we assume Harris takes over in 2025, she will then be judged on what her Administration does. We just don't have to worry about that now. All that said, after that horrific debate the idea of Biden being the nominee just scares the shit out of me. It's almost certain next week things will start by getting worse for Biden, with more calls for his resignation from House members and Senators. The people I have the most faith in now are Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, and Jeffries. The only way Biden is going to go is if the party's top leaders basically force him out. And these leaders have the wits and will to make sure this is not chaos, and a party bloodbath. Neither Biden nor Harris want that either, or course. So it's going to be a small group of wise leaders I trust making one big decision, I think.

LOL. It's one poll. And it confirms what I said. Biden v. Harris appears to be a coin toss, at least if you go by polls. In this poll Trump is up 6 over Biden and 7 over Harris. If I read the Harris X account right, that's a 3 point net shift to Trump since 5/31. No surprise that in a debate where Trump's lies and stupidity were eclipsed by Biden's debate malpractice, Trump got a post-debate bump. When the debate bounces back to Trump executing Liz Cheney after his military tribunal determines she's a traitor, shift will happen. The more concerning numbers about Harris are a Daily Mail poll that shows Trump over Biden by 5 and over Harris by 11. That's a number that will slow momentum to Kamala. But I'm quite sure in the next few weeks this will be polled to death. Meanwhile, the first good piece of news for Biden in a while. Larry Sabato said "the race between Trump and Biden is no longer close." It's good news for Biden because Sabato is often spectacularly wrong. So when he calls a trend or an election, you can feel pretty confident it will be the opposite of what he says. Sabato single-handedly created the inaccurate idea that the 2016 polls were horribly wrong. In fact, the final 2016 RCP average showed Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.2 %, and she won by 2.1 %. Pretty close. If you look at the state polls that explain her electoral college defeat, those were pretty close to reality, too. Sabato is a prognosticator, not a pollster. He guessed very badly right before Election Day 2016 that Clinton would win, and Democrats would win the Senate. He turned out to be dead wrong, of course. instead of admitting he just had his head up his ass, he was all over TV blaming his shitty and unreliable guessing on bad polling. So now that Sabato has said the race is not close, we can expect to see the race tighten. Cue the drumroll, please. Biden Has Lost Little Swing-State Support Following First Debate Biden holds an advantage over Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin A new Bloomberg state poll shows Biden beating Trump by 5 points in Michigan and 3 points in Wisconsin. That brings the RCP average of state polls in those two states back to a statistical tie. Bloomberg still shows Biden losing Pennsylvania. But he is only 1 point down in Georgia and 3 points down in Nevada. Take that, Larry Sabato! Nitwit! I'll double down on the idea that it's lucky timing for Democrats that this happened now. Of course, the best thing would be Joe Biden circa 2008 or so (the Whack Sarah Palin version) showed up to the debate. But if it was going to be Dementia Joe, thank God it happened now. This could be the setup for Comeback Kid, 2024 Edition. One way to judge whether Biden has the wits about him to fight Putin or fight for America's middle class is watching him fight for his own survival. So these Bloomberg polls may be an indictor that the "Fight, Joe, Fight!" strategy is working. Either way, the debate about how Biden is maybe crazy and Trump is for sure a crazy lying narcissist that was being suppressed is now in the open. That's a good thing. I think it makes Democrats look like the grown ups, while Trump rants about military tribunals and executing cult traitor Liz Cheney on 5th Ave. or wherever.

Glad to know you are an expert at medical diagnosis. How are you at shooting bullets into brains? I assume if Trump wins all the mentally ill liberals will be called up to military tribunals as sick traitors, like Liz Cheney, and executed. Call me picky. But if I have have to go, I want to die next to Mike Pence the way I lived. Hung.

Trump amplifies posts calling for televised military tribunal for Liz Cheney If Trump wins in November and shoots Liz Cheney in the head after she is found guilty of treason in a televised military tribunal, will anyone care? Why should they? Blah blah blah. What the fuck is the problem with every past Republican Vice President, before Trump? Dick Cheney spawned a treasonous daughter who needs to be found guilty of treason in a televised military tribunal. She was disloyal to Trump. Traitor! Maybe it would be cool if Trump shot her, or hung her, on 5th Ave. But wait. We really need to reserve the noose for that traitor Mike Pence. What was the problem with all these Republicans before Trump? No Republican before Trump understood how democracy is supposed to work. Certainly not The Founding Fathers. And let's not even talk about Biden and Garland and all the Democrats who need to be brought before televised military tribunals. Seriously. Why would anyone care if Trump shoots the traitorous bitch in the head after she is found guilty by a military tribunal? It just makes sense. This is America! Poll reveals that “Trump trusted more than Biden on democracy among key swing-state voters” That's a sign of the times, and a sign of Biden's current problems making his case to voters. Ironic that the group that wants to control women's bodies and prohibit abortion is flaunting the supposedly accurate results of the "fake media" that lies to us all the time. Which one is it? Fake or truthful? Oh, right. You no longer can distinguish between lies and truth. That poll makes perfect sense to me. I think it is a well documented fact that maybe about one third of Americans would go for a lying criminal authoritarian like Trump - as long as he is THEIR lying criminal authoritarian. Anyone who doesn't get that can sit next to Liz at her military tribunal. Why not? This is America! The problem for Democrats is that 62 % of Americans don't trust Trump to handle threats to democracy, including Trump himself. But most of them don't trust Biden, either. Part of the reason why, obviously, is that we are NOT talking about how Trump wants to bring Liz Cheney before a military tribunal for treason. We are not talking about how Trump's hand-picked radical right SCOTUS members, who killed Roe v. Wade on Trump's orders, seem to be saying he has broad immunity if he happens to want to kill his political opponents. This is America! Or is it?

Therein lies the rub, I think. I'm not a doctor, so I have no clue how making a diagnosis works. But it seems logical that there may not be a black and white, reliable diagnosis to be had. That's part of what clearly bothers people. They have seen this movie before. But it moves slowly, and does not have a name, until it unpredictably moves quickly. This is close to heart to me. I know there was a point when I invited my Mom to visit me in California for a week. It turned out to be her last trip in which she did a lot of weird things. In retrospect I learned they were symptoms of vascular dementia, which she had not been diagnosed with yet. Something like that seemingly did happen with Reagan in his second term, years before his Alzheimer's diagnosis. From Politico today, post Georgey Boy: Despite the conventional wisdom, I see some big pluses in this for Democrats - even if Biden remains the nominee. The quiet part that Biden loyalists tried to suppress is now being said out loud. I think that makes Democrats look like the adults in the room. At least compared to Republicans who are just circling the wagons and denying the deeply toxic things about Trump that repelled Independents even as they were aghast at Biden's performance. Now the question is whether leaders like Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, and Obama can steer this to an orderly solution, one way or the other. Biden is at least partly right. There were lots of pundits saying things looked dire in 2022. And Biden's wisdom and calm turned out to be right. If he does manage to survive what could already be called an intraparty bloodbath, it actually is a form of cognitive test. Lots of Democratic leaders, including Biden himself, have been "comeback kids" before. The difference is that losing a primary, being involved in a sex scandal, or losing a debate are not the same as, to put in bluntly, losing your mind. Since Trump has never had morals and is also losing his mind, it creates a very weird and concerning race to the bottom.

Call me woke, but I still like the idea of a woman running against the pussy grabbing Felon In Chief. If we can't have Kamala, can we at least have Miss Piggy?

Gupta himself said a version of what you are saying on CNN today. He was talking more generally about cognitive tests, as you are. But he said one value of anyone over 65 getting the tests annually is it develops a baseline to compare to future results. That's obviously not an option with Biden. There are also articles online about how Biden "maybe" has Parkinson's or "maybe" has some other condition based on some credentialed professional being willing to speculate on the internet. I think the most concerning thing, which won't help Biden deal with the political fallout, is that he said to Georgey Boy on TV tonight that he wouldn't take a cognitive test, and didn't need to, because his everyday performance as POTUS is itself a cognitive test. By that logic, of course, about 80 % of Americans (who are not doctors) believe he is failing the test. Whatever comes of Gupta's recommendations, these are the numbers that probably matter more: Would Kamala Harris Do Better Than Biden? That's one post-debate CNN poll that shows Biden 6 points behind versus Harris at 2 points behind Trump. A YouGov poll showed both Biden and Harris 2 points behind Trump. An Ipsos poll showed Biden tied with Trump, and Harris 1 point behind Trump. In other words, it is still a close race. And at least based on these three polls it is more or less a coin toss between Biden and Harris, if one is to go by polls. All the other likely suspects - the Democratic Governors like Newsom and Whitmer - poll worse than either Biden or Harris. The interesting thing about that chart above is that it appears that Harris might do better than Biden among the specific Democratic constituencies Biden badly needs, but has big problems with: non-White voters, young voters. And, probably most important, Independents. If more public or private polls show the same thing, that would help explain why there seems to be ongoing and maybe growing momentum from Biden to Harris publicly, or just underneath the surface, among Democratic leaders and donors. I think it's a pretty good guess that Biden would outperform Harris among rural White men in Iowa. But neither are going to win Iowa, anyway. What the chart above suggests is that if the Presidential race boils down to who can win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Harris might have some real advantages if this polling is reinforced by more polls. Meanwhile, I'll recite ad nauseum what the wisest guy in the room, Lichtman, is saying. What's less important is whether Democrats end up with Biden or Harris. What's more important is how Democrats do it. I think Lichtman is right that if Biden is not the nominee, he should resign and let Kamala run as POTUS. The logical reason for him to do that would be some kind of diagnosis. Other than lots of Democratic leaders and most voters wanting him to step aside.

You really don't understand democracy, do you? Only someone who lives under the rule of a murderous tyrant like Putin would argue that.

No 180 on my part. More like 100 % behind Allan Lichtman, who is focused on how Democrats win and Trump loses. If there is an all knowing wise guy in this debate, he's it. He was right 10 out of 10 times in picking who would win, and why they would win. (I'm excusing his call for Gore in 2000. Lichtman argues Gore actually won, if the votes were all counted. Even if you disagree, Gore won the popular vote and the electoral college outcome hinged on a small number of votes in one state.) In fact, I'll take a victory lap and argue I out-Lichtmaned Lichtman. In his first few chats with CNN, right after the debate, Lichtman argued that Biden withdrawing from the race in a way that led to a party bloodbath (my word, not his) would be a disaster for Democrats. I agree. What I found confusing, and wrote in several posts, is that it seems like Biden resigning the Presidency and letting Harris run as the consensus candidate AND POTUS would solve that problem. Sure enough, a few days later Lichtman did an interview on News Nation I posted above in which he said exactly that. To summarize again, he has a Plan A and Plan B. Plan A is President Biden runs for re-election under the Biden/Harris ticket, and is favored to win. Plan B is that President Harris runs for re-election under the Biden/Harris ticket, and is favored to win. I'm no pollster, let alone Allan Lichtman. Nor am I a neurologist. But my gut feeling is the same as yours, @unicorn. I think we agree. Biden at least appears to be showing signs of slipping. If 80 % of voters, including most Democrats, think he is not the best candidate to beat Trump, that merits serious reflection. Speaking of neurologists, Sanjay Gupta has weighed in with excellent advice, using words that seem to lean slightly to our shared opinion - emphasis on the word opinion. Biden should undergo ‘detailed cognitive and movement disorder testing,’ Sanjay Gupta says Gupta said low sleep, low blood sugar levels, or illness could have contributed to his debate performance. Perhaps coincidentally, that echoes the precise words of Nancy Pelosi. Is this an episode, or a condition? They both are making a lot of sense. The only thing I would add is that Trump should take the same tests. Including one specifically for narcissistic personality disorder. I'll point out what I view as the key flaw in Lichtman's initial logic, in his first CNN interview. He said Biden should be judged by three and a half years of performance, not 90 minutes of debate. I absolutely agree, as far as that goes. But I think the reason 80 % of Americans are concerned is they see two old men, neither of whom appear to be fit to serve. The question is about the future, not the past. Lichtman appears to have gotten the memo. I think Gupta's advice lays the groundwork for both Plan A and Plan B. Best case for Biden, it was low blood sugar and a cold. Reagan and Obama both survived debates in which they stumbled and fumbled. And in Reagan's case even seemed senile and lost for a moment. Worst case for Biden, it lays the groundwork for his resignation for the good of party and country. If Lichtman's Keys are right for the 11th time in a row, President Harris is set up to run as the consensus candidate, and incumbent. And kick the gross old porn star fucking felon she will run against into the shit can of history, once and for all.

Seriously? Sure. There are bad apples in every barrel. But, for the most part, the MAGA movement is extremely warm and welcoming to Blacks and all people of color. This is why in every MAGA crowd, you see many Black and Hispanic and Asian American faces under the charming red hats. Trump has bent over backwards to acknowledge the historic discrimination against people of color. Not to mention the growing income inequality caused by things like massive Republican tax cuts to mostly White billionaires like Trump. He wants to cut the ACA because he knows it discriminates against Blacks and Hispanics with pre-existing conditions, who would be far better served by more Republican tax cuts to mostly White billionaires. Rep. Mary Miller thanks Trump for ‘victory for white life’ in gaffe at rally Donald Trump and his followers are no doubt the least racist people in America. Trump vows to fight 'anti-white feeling' in the United States

In other words, you conceded my point. Thank you. I'm not a lawyer, let alone a SCOTUS justice. And we'll never know for sure what would have happened had this radical ruling been in place. But an example that has been cited would be the tapes that ended up indicting Nixon and forcing his resignation could have been shielded as "official" acts under an "absolute immunity" interpretation of the radical pro-authoritarian ruling of Trump's hand-picked radical "Justices". If they can even be called that after backing authoritarian injustice like brutally beating the shit out of cops to suspend a democratic transfer of power.

Sweetie, I think you forgot 1974. Had this radical SCOTUS and its pro-authoritarianism ruling been in place then, Nixon would never have had to resign. The radical hand-picked Trump SCOTUS members are increasingly anti-democracy and pro-authoritarian MAGA folk.

The axiom in politics is, "When you're explaining, you're losing." Biden is now a textbook example of that. Part of the problem is that his explanations make things worse. He traveled the globe twice, after which he took a few days off and then spent a week at Camp David preparing for the debate. If that is asking too much of a POTUS, he is basically explaining why he should not be POTUS. Almost every Democratic leader and pundit agrees that Biden needs to get out a lot more. He tells the Democratic Governors the problem is he needs to go to bed earlier. Huh? So far, the more he or his surrogates explain, the more he has to explain. That's not a winning strategy.

The part of this that is not just funny stupid nonsense is that Trump would actually do it, if elected, thanks to his hand picked right wing SCOTUS justices wanting to empower his most authoritarian whims. The Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating involved Trump specifically telling his radical supporters to go The Capitol, where they beat the leaving shit out of lots of cops. Mayor Eric Adams decried the "river of guns" flowing into NYC from states with Republican "let guns flow" policies, thus resulting in the brutal murder of NYC cops from Republican-sanctioned illegal guns. Murder and violent crime are down about 15 % in 2023 under Biden's pro-cop Administration. But the lying fact-free idiots of Fox News can only bitch about crime in blue cities, while they ignore the massive spike in murder and crime under Trump in 2020 that Biden has now reversed. Republicans are not the party of truth, law, and order. They are the party of lies, guns, and violent authoritarianism. Police officers injured during Jan. 6th Capitol attack denounce Trump as anti-law enforcement P

This is an example where it is almost a no brainer that Kamala would be a better communicator than Biden. I think it was Jon Stewart who ripped into Biden for flubbing the debate question on abortion and actually using it to bring up his weakest point - immigration. Harris is surgical on the question. She points out that Trump hand picked - HAND PICKED! - the three justices who overturned Roe v. Wade with the specific intent of overturning Roe v. Wade. What she can't say is that women don't want the gross old hands of a fat and lazy and stupid narcissist on their pussies. But that is how many women feel. Ugh! Gross disgusting old pussy grabbing hands! Biden/Harris can be either a both/and or an either/or. Either way, everyone knows that Harris could be called on to be POTUS later, if not sooner. So I think all the attention on her is a positive, regardless of how this plays out. She is a better communicator than Biden or Trump. Period.

I agree with that. That older WSJ article you like to cite about Biden's alleged mental frailty mostly named Republican sources like Mike Johnson and Kevin McCarthy. They are hardly disinterested medical professionals qualified to diagnosis dementia - in either Biden or Trump. It's possible that some of the unnamed sources in that older WSJ article were Biden staff members. But we will never know that for sure. The idea of having a June debate was either really stupid, or diabolically genius on the part of Biden's staff. Stupid if it rested on the assumption that somehow Biden would just kick Trump's ass. Diabolically genius if the hidden agenda was to expose Biden's weaknesses to 50 million viewers. Either way, regardless of what is going on with Biden, it is way better to have this debate now than in October. What I'd pay more attention to in the poll you cited is that 47 % of Americans view Trump very unfavorably, and 45 % view Biden very unfavorably. 44 % view Harris very unfavorably. That is actually very good news for Kamala. I think it is reasonable to assume that anyone who will actually vote in 2024 knows and has an opinion about these three individuals. The 2016 and 2020 elections were won at the margins - especially in the key swing states. So what 47 % v. 44 % means is that all three candidates start with close to half of America probably dead set against voting for them. But if we assume one of these three needs 50 % to win, the math is simple. Trump can only turn off 3 % of the voters who are not already dead set against him and still get to 50 % of the vote. Harris can turn off 6 % of the voters who are not already dead set against her, and still get to 50 % of the vote. That means Harris has a lot more room to maneuver among the small part of the voting population - maybe 10 % or so - who are really up for grabs and will decide who wins the election. It's also true that if Kamala were suddenly POTUS, she'd be younger, newer and more exciting. Trump would still be the same old lying narcissist with his criminal and old pussy grabbing hands to gross Americans out. Of course, it's probably a given that in a race with RFK, Stein, and West no candidate will need to get 50 % of the vote to win. Which may be why the "DEI incompetent Black woman" label stupid losing Republicans will definitely pin on Harris may help to explain why stupid losing Republicans who lost in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023 will lose again in 2024. As a Democrat, it is kind of amazing to watch how a stupid loser like Trump inspires so many to act stupidly and lose so often. In that poll you cited, Stein gets 1 % of the vote and West gets 1 %. The fact that they only get 1 % each helps explain why Biden is only 2 % behind Trump in the poll you cite - even after his crappy debate malpractice. The closer the election gets, the more likely that disaffected and progressive Democrats who don't like Biden will hold their nose and vote for him, anyway - just like they did in 2020. That is partly because they learned from experience in 2016 that voting for Jill Stein in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin basically helped Trump win. What white men in Iowa or brown lesbians in California think of Kamala Harris is irrelevant to the election outcome. What matters a lot more is what Black men in Philadelphia, women in Madison, and Muslim Americans in Michigan think of Kamala. So please, please, please. If Harris is the nominee, I beg you to trash her brutally and cruelly. I hope Trump makes it absolutely clear that he thinks this worthless Black female cackling gasbag is incompetent. And only qualified to run for POTUS because she is Black and a woman. Let your true colors out, so to speak. Please. Just do it. Forcing Biden Out Would Have Only One Beneficiary: Trump On the specific topic of race and gender, Charles Blow's essay makes the case for Biden by design, and the case for Harris by omission. Blow cites my sage Allan Lichtman to argue that removing an incumbent POTUS in a way that leads to a bloodbath in Chicago would be two big nails in Democrat's coffin. In the last day or so Lichtman has basically fact checked Lichtman's own Keys, and come up with a Plan B. If Biden resigns and Harris is POTUS, and sails to nomination as the head of the Biden/Harris ticket, the same result is achieved. Democrats are running an incumbent, and there is no party bloodbath. Lichtman now argues, based on his Keys, that whether it is President Biden or President Harris defending their Administration, both would be favored to win. Blow also cites the well known suspects - sexism and racism - for explaining why Hillary lost in 2016. And why running Kamala could be risky. But if that's true, why is another Black woman - Michelle Obama - kicking Trump's ass by double digits in a hypothetical race? How racist and sexist is that? So an alternative logical explanation is what Lichtman argued in September 2016: the governing party (Democrats) gets a thumbs down based on his Keys, and any generic Republican - even Donald Trump! - will beat whoever they nominate. He said it in September 2016 and he was right. In the context of the current crisis, it is very important to note that two of the Keys Lichtman turned against Hillary in 2016 were the same two that matter now. She was not the incumbent. And the 2016 primary was a bitter and divisive fight that split the party and was not healed by November 2016 (Superpredator!) So Lichtman is now arguing that the most important question is not whether the candidate is President Biden or President Harris. It is how to avoid running someone who is not the incumbent President after an ugly party bloodbath. The good news is that Lichtman is 10 for 10 on Presidential elections. And he says unless lots changes, either a President Biden or President Harris is favored to win. It's now on Biden to prove quickly, if he can, why he deserves a second term. I am fine with that. After all, stupid losing Republicans led by Trump lost in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023. If Democratic leaders are only half as stupid as losers like Trump, they ought to be able to figure this out.

It means you are the all knowing wise guy. I think we should send you to DC to help Pelosi and Jeffries and Clyburn and Schumer figure it out. Although I'm sure they don't even know what Grand Rounds means. Thankfully, you have diagnosed the patient. Why even get a formal evaluation? Regardless, I stand by my idea that Michelle Obama clobbering Trump 50/39 in a hypothetical poll speaks to how many if not most voters are hungering for hope and change.

You're getting my drift now. 😉 Actually, I was thinking of digestive congenitalitis. It's a rare disease mainly afflicting former escorts who now have less cock to suck. I don't think it is Biden's problem. But how would I know. Anyway, enough for the cocky humor. We now return you to your regularly scheduled bloodbath.

I'm glad you included the words "probably" and "some". The fact is we have no idea what those Governors said to Biden. We have no idea what most party leaders are saying in private. I think the only thing we know for sure is that opinion is all over the map. Here's one thing I view as bedrock. Nancy Pelosi knew it was important to avoid a party bloodbath replacing her last year. She was successful in choreographing a transition free of division and conflict. Both Trump and Biden knew it was in their interest to avoid a divisive primary bloodbath. Both Republicans and Democrats rallied around their leaders, both of whom are or have been POTUS. Again, everyone in the big boy's and girl's room knew a bloodbath would hurt their chances. My point is that I am 100 % sure Democratic party leaders are right now focused on one thing: how do we stop this from turning into a bloodbath? I am confident they will solve this problem. As Lichtman said, they have a good Plan A and Plan B, if they want to avoid Trump and chaos. In my view it was the luck of the draw whether Biden stumbled in a debate, or Trump had a stroke. Either, or both, are disasters just waiting to happen. So the idea that we somehow know that Biden is about to be diagnosed with dementia or Trump is about to have a stroke doesn't make any sense to me. The day after the debate I was with three family members, and we all agreed there was maybe a 5 % chance that Biden would have to bow out. I'd now say it's maybe 25 %. I personally think that this was a godsend. Even though the debate went exactly the opposite as planned. Sometimes it makes sense to circle the wagons and suppress dissent. But when 80 % of Americans say this guy is just too old, the strategy is simply not working. Never Trump Republican pollster Frank Lutz said months ago that the party that will win is the party that does not have Biden or Trump as their nominee. Since both are unpopular symbols of a stinky status quo. The fact that Michelle Obama somehow beats Trump by double digits mainly speaks to the fact that a majority of people want hope and change again. I think the wisest Democrats in the room are now quietly trying to figure out what that means. And I don't think anyone knows the answer yet. True. It's an odd slip. I of course meant congenital heart failure. I think it's because, as much as I love to talk about genitals, I tried to avoid doing so around Mom and Dad 😲

Sorry to be a total bitch, my dearest and most darlingest Sister In Cock. But you know me. Some political pundit was on TV last night saying that, for the first time, Trump is approaching 50 % in polls. The figure the pundit used was that, previously, Trump was limited to 46 % or so of the vote. To be precise, he "won" with 46.1 % of the votes in 2016, compared to 48.2 % for Hillary. He lost with 46.8 % of the votes in 2020, compared to 51.3 % for Biden. Those percentages of course depend on a shifting turnout base, that increased by close to 20 million votes between 2016 and 2020. Regardless, so far it has been an axiom of US politics that a majority of Americans reject Trump, his lies, his narcissism, and his gross old pawing and molesting and pussy grabbing hands. That has not changed. In the current RCP average, which includes lots of post-debate polls, Trump is still stuck at exactly 46.7 % of the vote. Try as they might, Team MAGA can't spin a gross old pussy grabbing asshole as anything other than a gross old pussy grabbing asshole. Voters are smart. They just don't like gross old pussy grabbing assholes. The Democrats' biggest problem now is Biden's age. That is part of what is holding Biden down to 43.8 % of the vote. Their second biggest problem is voters don't like inflation (problem solved) or higher prices (problem unsolvable) either. So what we don't know is whether switching out Harris for Biden will help or hurt. Either way, we need someone who can argue passionately that the solution to 2022 inflation is NOT 2025 tax cuts to billionaires, skyrocketing deficits that will result, and a war on women and their bodies. Trump, as felon, is not getting any more popular. A majority of Americans reject his old pussy grabbing hands. Ugh! The problem is that Biden is getting quickly and alarmingly less popular.

I'll say this ad nauseum. Be careful hat you wish for. Trump lost by millions of votes in 2016. He was President solely due to a quirk in our election system - the electoral college - that was in large part designed to support slavery. It was a legal victory, for sure. But hardly a mandate. He spent his term showering wealth and tax cuts on billionaires like himself. And seeking retribution by gutting a now popular health care law that keeps millions Americans from being sick and broke. Trump and MAGA led Republicans to defeat in 2018. Trump and MAGA led Republicans to defeat in 2020. Trump and MAGA led Republicans to defeat in 2022. Trump and MAGA led Republicans to defeat in 2023. The one bright exception was Kevin McCarthy's smart and disciplined effort to recruit and elect non-White and non-male conservatives to the US House, which helped him achieve the slimmest of Republican majorities. That happened despite Trump's frequently racist and sexist bile. And his inability to keep his gross old disgusting hands off women and their pussies. Ugh! So go ahead and continue to be brilliant, @EmmetK. You have a perfect track record of hating facts, and backing losers who lead you to more losses. Just be careful what you wish for.