stevenkesslar

Well, it's not like the media has been reluctant to air Trump's dirty laundry. Sounds hard to believe, but some conservatives believe the MSM is actually really tough on Trump? Who's a thunk. One nice thing about the Biden mutiny is it does show the MSM is more than happy to eat their own. Of course, Biden is not the property of the MSM. But if the "liberal media" takes Biden down, it makes it hard for Fox News types to argue there is a vast left-wing conspiracy. I think Allan Lichtman argues this the best. He attacks the media for aiding and abetting Trump. But he always adds the magic words: ratings. It's a but like saying any capitalist would be happy to sell a socialist the rope they will use to hang them. The media loves Trump for the ratings, even if it helps elect Trump and he then goes after the media. There is every reason to think the way Trump attacked the MSM in first term will be child's play in Project 2025 America.

That's a no brainer. Darkly comic pun intended. Much better to beat the felon and liar at the ballot box, not with an assassin's bullet. Yes, I've read the books about the dark history of the CIA. Here's a fun thing. My crazy Mom was once at the house of Isabel Allende for dinner, who knows a bit about the CIA and assassinations. My Mom had no idea about the author, or her assassinated uncle. Regardless, America 2024 is not Putin's America. We don't kill our political opponents.

I guess it makes sense that you cling to facts that seem unlikely. It is a fact that someone tried to kill Donald Trump. It is not a fact that Jesus Christ saved Donald Trump so he could have his way with America. But many MAGA radicals who will overlook Trump's criminal behavior and lies and rape believe Jesus saved Trump so that Trump can have his way with America. Whatever! As I just cited above, a new poll that shows Trump beating Harris by 3 points says young people (voters under 30) favor her by 25 points over Trump. The same young voters (under 30) prefer Biden by 20 points over Trump. So if Democrats want voters under 30, Biden is good, and Harris is better. Meanwhile, older voters (over 65) overwhelmingly prefer Trump over either Harris or Biden. The numbers I just cited are very much in line with what actually happened in the 2020 election. So who knows? But it seems unlikely that the results of the 2020 election have now flipped completely, and young voters under 26 overwhelmingly prefer Trump. I know you hate facts, @EmmetK. So I assume you have not tried to download the dataset, right? Pew wants me to register to actually look at the data, and that's not something I generally register with websites to do. Since you like to jump at any fact or lie that you think supports your argument, you're not much help here. What I could find that was a little more specific was a Newsweek article that said the actual shift in the NPORS data was from +1 Democrat in 2023 to +2 Republican in 2024. Given Biden's unpopularity, if that is what the 3 point shift measures, that makes sense. Like, a year ago Biden and Trump were tied. Now Trump is up +3. So that would explain the shift, I guess. What we don't have a clue about is why polls say Casey will slay his Republican opponent in Pennsylvania, Slotkin will slay her Republican opponent in Michigan, and yet Biden is losing to Trump in both states. This seems to be less about Democrats, in general, and more about Biden. As far as the R+30 thing among voters under 26, the Newsweek article says the following: 1. It is actually R+26 when "non-responses to gender" are accounted for, whatever that means. 2. It is actually R+7, according to someone else. 3. It is actually sample noise, according to some smart guy. 4. It is actually a huge generational shift, according to the same smart guy, who you desperately want to believe. 5. It is actually polling selection bias that is throwing off polls, according to the same smart guy, who you desperately don't want to believe. Whatever. If you ask me, young voters kicked Trump's ass in 2020 and they seem prepared to do it again. Biden is absolutely turning young voters off. Which is why I am sorry to see Joe go, but I think he needs to. Meanwhile, Democrats have been kicking ass in about every other election in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. I'll add this. I absolutely believe that there are 19 year old Zoomers who did not vote in 2020, who did not pay any attention to Trump when they were going through puberty, who spend a lot of time on Tik Tok, who are mostly disaffected, and whose view of politics is based on short ranting videos saying Biden sucks because he is for inflation and war. And Trump kicked the shit out of a bullet no less! Biden is a pussy! Trump is a badass! I'm in! If that is your strategy to win, good luck. I know you want to believe Jesus saved Trump so he could have his way with America. I simply believe Trump survived, which is a good thing. The fact that I don't want the gross old lying felon to have his way with America is simply my opinion. Like Trump, you do not understand the difference, clearly.

You know, unlike @EmmetK, you are actually good at facts. So you should know that right now I am hardly in "Nobody but Biden" camp. I hope he resigns, Kamala steps up as POTUS, and she wins in November. The polls, like the one I just cited above, said that is eminently doable. The Gen Z. thing is interesting. I don't think we will know for sure until election day. (Note to Russians: US elections are real, and we actually do NOT know the outcome of elections before they happen.) So there's this idea that Zoomers are turning to Republicans, because they are reacting against Biden. And there's this separate but related idea that in democracies all over the world, young women are turning left while young men are turning right. South Korea is a great example, and there are lots of articles about the gender war there. So maybe it is age. Or maybe it is a gender gap. Or maybe it is some of both. So I'll cite a YouGov poll that shows Trump beating Biden by 5 and Harris by 3 as a few granular examples. When asked how much they are thinking about the Presidential race, 76 % of voters over 65 years old say a lot. Only 48 % of voters under 30 do. And I think the RNC spoke for itself. If you put some video on Tik Tok that lasts 60 seconds or so with Trump and White guys with muscles doing guy shit, and then have Hulk Hogan rip his shirt off and it is all very cool, and it is awesome, and like wow that guy is fucking tough, and like this is badass fucking testosterone, well I don't know maybe that is how young guys say, "Fuck! Trump survived a bullet! I'm in!" Sadly, these guys are missing out on all the fun stuff. If they lived in Russia, they could be super lucky and super badass and be sent to Ukraine by Genocide Man to be processed into fertilizer. So I guess they don't really even know what they are missing, since they maybe see the world through Tik Tok and wrestling. 91 % of voters over 65 say they definitely will vote. Only 65 % of voters under 30 say they will definitely vote. I'm pretty sure Black college students who are passionate about Biden/Harris will vote. I'm pretty sure it's the guys who like Tik Tok and Hulk Hogan and think Trump is badass who are a lot less likely to vote. Meanwhile, among voters aged over 65, Trump beats Biden 58/41. Among voters under 30, Biden beats Trump 60/38. That huge age gap is comparable to 2020, if these polls are right. The polls that show a much closer race among Zoomers, including ones that show Trump and Biden are roughly tied among Zoomers, tend to come from certain polling outfits, like a Harris poll done by Mark Penn. I have no clue why. It has to have something to do with polling methodology. He tends to have the most pro-Trump polls. And I think it may have to do with counting these marginal young voters who are actually the least likely to vote. I don't know. But we will all learn when people actually do go vote who got it right and who was way off. We do know in 2020 that the age gap was huge, and young voters overwhelmingly sided with Biden and Harris. In the same poll, voters under 30 say they would vote for Harris over Trump by a 62/37 margin (25 points, compared to +20 points for Biden among voters under 30). So that suggests that having a younger and more exciting candidate might help Democrats even more with young voters. But mostly voters under 30 clearly want a Democrat over Trump, if these polls are right. There's a few other things I will mention that seem to explain what is going on here, but that I don't think anyone knows for sure. I have cited polls before that show that that the Zoomers who are most pro-Trump are the ones who are the least likely to vote, and most likely to say politics doesn't even matter. The Zoomers who are most likely to vote are overwhelmingly for Biden/Harris. So it is a big gamble that these young people who don't vote regularly and think politics sucks and are disaffected will go vote for Trump because he is badass or takes a bullet and survives, or whatever. Inflation sucks! That's probably how they feel, it seems, if I just watch Tik Tok and what they like. Meanwhile, the Trump campaigns speaks for itself, and its deep cynicism. It hopes to gain power just by selling the idea that, "Yeah, you are disillusioned and things suck and inflation sucks so vote for Trump and JD!!!!!!" That's a very small part of an interview between Ezra Klein and Tim Alberta of The Atlantic, who followed Trump's campaign masterminds and just wrote about their very well thought out plan, based on what Susie Wiles has proven can work in Florida. That said, it is all built on cynicism, not cement. They are not saying, "Here is what Republicans and Trump and JD Vance will do for you." It is all built on just creating disillusionment and cynicism, including about democracy itself. "Vote for Trump, because voting sucks! We won't do shit for you. But the Democrats will give you inflation and war!" That's not what they are saying, of course. But it's the basic idea. Just make people feel Democrats are the problem. The best specific example of what Wiles did in Florida is turning Latino immigrants into Republicans. They started a frenzy about how Biden wants to bring the very socialism you escaped in Venezuela or whatever to Florida. Biden is a socialist! Harris is a socialist! It worked great among recent Latino immigrants, who hate socialism. Now if instead they are working Moms and somebody said Biden was the guy who got you that child tax credit that helped pay for groceries and Republicans took it away, that would be a whole different thing. So I don't think they are building a foundation on cement. But as long as the bullshit keeps coming and there is no serious pushback, it works. Trump is hoping cynicism wins among young low information voters. That is his whole strategy. It's more than a little risky. I don't think Kamala Harris is good news for Trump, especially among young voters. If Democrats want Zoomers, I think Kamala is maybe the best choice. She is a Black Asian American woman who can passionately tell you how she will FIGHT for you. The poll I cited above says she'd beat Trump by 25 points among young voters, compared to 20 points for Biden. Beyond the polls, she is passionate about the idea that if you are a woman and if you are a minority and if you are vulnerable, what politicians decide absolutely matters. Whether they will let you get an abortion or help you with your child after she is born absolutely matters. I will FIGHT for you and that absolutely matters. How badass is that? Harris would be an antidote to the foundational strategy of the Trump 2024 campaign, which is cynicism and disillusionment.

I know facts are difficult for you to accept, @EmmetK. I did manage to watch all 90+ minutes of Trump's demented sounding ramble of a speech. So I guess I get it. Facts are bad, aren't they? It's a fact that MURDER spiked 30 % in 2020 under Trump and he left office as the Murder President. It's a fact that murder and violent crime fell over 10 % in 2023 under Biden, and seems to be headed down more under Biden. But the MAGA cult can not talk about this fact. It is a fact that JD Vance is viciously anti-union, and unions detest him. And yet somehow Republicans won't talk about all the things JD Vance has done to undercut unionized workers. Let's not even talk about how Trump 1.0 was all about cutting taxes for billionaires and corporations. So, yes. You really don't like facts. You like felons, and liars. So you wanted some Harris polling? What is it about facts that you hate so much? Is it that you fear losing? That would make sense. Under Trump, radical MAGA voters lost in 2018, and 2020, and 2022, and 2023. So, yeah. Odds are you will lose in 2024, now that JD Vance was chosen to double down on the radical MAGA message of tax cuts for billionaires and attack democratic elections and support Putin's genocide. What is it about facts you hate, @EmmetK? I mean, do you want Trump back so murder rates can spike 30 % again? What part of Biden reducing violent crime and murder do you not like? How is this radical bullshit good for America. I'm pretty sure those poll numbers above underestimate where this is going. The Democratic Party is in chaos right now. The Republicans just had a great convention, thanks 100 % to Susie Wiles and 0 % to off message Donald Trump, who is old and off message and is the guy who gave us a 30 % spike in murder. What is it about blood you guys like? Is it a testosterone thing? Meanwhile, the same PPP poll shows Casey winning by 11 points, and Slotkin winning by 8 points. So it's pretty clear that people in Pennsylvania and Michigan are for democracy, and plenty willing to vote for Democrats. So the chaos is worth is it gets voters a candidate they actually WANT to vote for. What is it about facts that you hate, @EmmetK? Why would you want to bring back a felon who lies and gave America a 30 % spike in murder?

Actually, I'm not sure of that at all. I think if the election were held today, yes. Then it would be bad news for Democrats. There's a glaringly obvious fact. Way over half of Americans do not want Joe Biden running. And way over half of Americans do not want Donald Trump running. Majorities of Independents want BOTH old men to step aside. In both cases, old age is a major issue. But in Trump's case, it has more to do with the fact that he is a felon and a liar. So what America just saw is a coronation of Trump, who rambled on for 90 minutes like an old demented man who has no ability to regulate his own behavior. Hopefully Gen Z misses that and just sees some cool video on Tik Tok about how he pumped his first after someone almost killed him. Welcome to politics, Zoomer edition! For everyone else, Democrats are being the adults in the room. You can argue that we should have gotten our shit together sooner. But especially if the issue is whether to take Grandpa's car keys away, that is always difficult. I posted Biden's 2022 Philly address on MAGA as a threat to democracy, and NO ONE - not even Fox - was saying the guy making that speech sounded demented. After the 2022 elections, everyone was actually saying, "Wow! Biden got it right." That matters, because that more than anything is what killed the talk about how Biden should not run in 2024. In retrospect, that WSJ article several months ago has more credibility than it seemed to at the time. But there's a reason I ignored it. The only people they quoted were Mike Johnson and Kevin McCarthy, Biden's political opponents. So bottom line is if Democrats manage to replace an old man America doesn't want with someone else like Kamala Harris they actually voted for - once in a general election and once in a primary - I don't think that makes Democrats look bad. I think it makes it look like we listened to voters about something that is sad, but has become obvious.

I don't disagree with anything you said, as far as it goes. I don't think you understood either of my points about a reality check. First, tens of millions did vote for Kamala Harris as Vice President. They did not vote for Mike Johnson, or Nancy Pelosi, or Porky Pig. They voted for Kamala Harris. They voted for her in the 2020 election. They voted for her in the 2024 primary. If Biden died of a heart attack yesterday, Kamala would be POTUS today. That is the Constitutional order of things. Everybody knows that. Clever Republicans who want Biden as Trump's opponent are already showing off both their cynicism and fear by saying Democrats are plotting a "coup attempt" against Biden. Talk about coups! These anti-democratic cynics should know. But they do have a point that if we have a Democratic primary and then somehow Gavin Newsom is the nominee, how was that actually democracy? So there is this basic idea that the Veep takes the place of the POTUS if he can't serve. That is why we have a Veep. It does give the process democratic legitimacy. It is more democratic than, say, Gerald Ford, who was never actually elected as either Veep or POTUS. A lot of Republicans are saying that if Biden steps aside as nominee, it also means he is not qualified to be POTUS for six more months. That's debatable. I think the real concern is whether he can serve four more years. But mostly based on Lichtman's ideas, which are all over the internet, if the goal is to beat Trump, and Biden is going to step aside as nominee, I think Kamala would have a better shot if she ran as POTUS, not Veep. Lichtman is saying, correctly I think, that having Kamala run as non-incumbent - especially if it requires a party fight to even get her nominated - is setting up 2016 all over again. He says Biden should resign and let Kamala take his place, and she'd then be a relative shoo-in as nominee. I think Lichtman is right. Nobody thinks a "coronation" is a good idea. But if Biden resigned and Kamala became POTUS and they vote on it as the DNC, it is likely that Harris would win overwhelmingly. That would show a united party, much like the Trump/MAGA party is united. Second reality check I think you missed, which is also a major talking point of anyone actually running national elections. There would be massive legal and financial problems for any person not named Joe Biden running for POTUS, unless that person is named Kamala Harris. That is mostly because of money and infrastructure that belongs to the Biden/Harris campaign. But, in theory, if Gavin Newsom were the nominee, Republicans could challenge even getting his name on state ballots. They are already threatening to do the same if Harris takes Biden's place. But they don't have a strong legal case to do so if the name is Harris. For both reasons, the reality check is that if Democrats want to beat Trump, and the whole things is about beating Trump, and in fact what actually matters most is beating Trump, there would be so many political, legal, and financial problems picking anyone other than Harris that it would probably just be better to let Biden limp to the finish line and lose. As far as your ability to diagnose dementia, I'm honestly a bit skeptical. That has been addressed before by someone else on the board with medical credentials, which i don't have. But I agree with your non-professional point, which is that the public overwhelmingly thinks Biden - AND TRUMP - are too old. And majorities of Americans want BOTH old men to step aside.

Jesus ordered Jan. 6th to save democracy. Jesus saved Trump from an assassin's bullet to make America great again. If you don't understand that, Sis, you just ain't American. Thankfully, you're not Merrick Garland or some communist Biden appointee. So you don't have to worry about Jesus throwing your ass in jail come January. But I'm sure Jesus would have a good reason to do so, anyway.

Well, I think we did learn something this week. Trump looks best when he keeps his mouth shut and raises his fist after being shot. When he talks for an hour and a half, not so much. Truth, of course, never stood a chance for a single minute. But I give Trump credit. He did unity for something like a full 20 minutes, before he wandered off into his typical hate and lies.

Well, we know she has a thing for Jewish guys, anyway. Doug isn't even First Gentleman yet, and he is already a class act.

I like Klo. She filled Paul Wellstone's seat. And he was my political mentor. So she always has a warm spot in my heart. A Bidenesque story, meaning an old war story that makes me sound old. At the time Wellstone won his US Senate seat, in 1990, Minnesota was seen as a solid red state, with two Republican Senators who had served for over a decade. A top Reagan White House political operative who was a lobbyist for GE Capital who I was working with on a $1 billion Community Home Buyers Program at the time told me this: "Your friend (Paul) has no chance. (Incumbent Senator) Boschwitz has great constituent services. No one can touch him." Professor Paul, and my best best friend from college who ran his campaign, touched Rudy. They beat him with the kind of fiery populist working class campaign that helped turn the tide of Reaganomics and helped make Minnesota a blue state. It worked in 1990. That is what Democrats need to do in 2024. And it is eminently doable. Speaking of which, from today's news: That's rich coming from Team MAGA. At least they know what they are talking about when they talk about coups! But on the topic of coups, we will have to have a reality check about how you toss Biden away, after he won the Democratic primary overwhelmingly. The thing Kamala Harris has going for her is that people voted for her as the one who would take Biden's place if needed - twice. Once in 2020, in the general election, and again in the 2024 primary. That's a philosophical point. If we didn't elect Kamala to take Biden's place, why did we vote for her? The much more pragmatic point is there are only two people who can legally run the vast financial and human infrastructure called the Biden/Harris campaign: Joe Biden, or Kamala Harris. Harris does not have a campaign team around her, so she would start at a deficit. But Klo, or anyone else, would start at a massively bigger deficit when we talk about what it takes to win a campaign - money, and a huge GOTV infrastructure.

Of course we can. (Well, not @EmmetK, of course.) And we can also agree defeating Trump has to be based on reality. Michelle Obama has said repeatedly for years she has absolutely no interest in running for POTUS. The other reality, as a pollster I cited on another thread wrote, is that these polls that test a horse race between Trump and anyone other than Biden are going to underestimate (name someone else who is much less well known until they actually are well known). Polls about Trump versus Humpy Dumpty, Little Red Riding Hood, Peter Pan, Goldilocks, and Mary Poppins aren't really based in reality. Granted, Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, Beshear, and Pritzker are real people, not fairy tales. But I'm pretty sure Humpty Dumpty has far better name recognition than the Governor of Kentucky. I'm also pretty sure that poll you cited tests name recognition more than anything else. I'm genuinely curious how many voters who know "Biden" do not know "Harris". I would bet money there are a lot of Americans who know who Michelle Obama is, but have no idea who Kamala Harris is. When you get down to Beshear or Pritzker, that's just a given. The more interesting question that is worthy of debate is, "Can't we all agree that at this moment, in July 2024, a month before the DNC, the only person who can defeat Trump, other than Joe Biden, is Kamala Harris?"

@lookin, your wish is Kamala's command. When I spoke with Kamala several days ago, I was actually shocked that she does not follow this website! Nor has she heard of noteworthy and wise internet poster @lookin. Thankfully, for that matter, she hadn't heard of @EmmetK, either. Anyhoo, when I brought your idea to Kamala's attention, she immediately said, "This @lookin guy is smart! I'm on it!" And so it goes. Don't be surprised if she checks in with you about being her Veep, by the way. 😉 The attack on Project 2025 starts a few minutes in. This was Kamala filling in for Biden, who is out with COVID. I assume she knows everyone is watching her every word right now, and this could be seen as a rough draft of her speech accepting the Democratic nomination for POTUS. Here is my favorite part, regarding the extreme and anti-democratic parts of Project 2025, bought and paid for by the right-wing billionaire class who paid for Trump and his billionaire tax cuts in 2016 and beyond: Well said, Kamala! I'm still confused about how billionaire tax cuts, cutting Obamacare, cutting child tax credits that helped tens of millions of working class parents and cut child poverty in half, and threatening to be a dictator are good for the working class - of any race! Seems like we need to go into way more detail about all the nasty anti-middle class and anti-working class nonsense in Project 2025. To be fair, this is way way way beyond the fact tolerance of our racist idiot @EmmetK, who thinks Kamala is a Black Asian American female DEI dolt. So here is a low information comprehension question for you, @EmmetK,since understanding Project 2025 is clearly above your pay grade. How many times did Kamala cackle in her speech? A. Five times. B. Fifty times. C. Five million times. D. Not once. P.S. I am a bit concerned for @EmmetK's mental acuity and mental health, given the toxic reaction he and so many MAGA types have to actual facts. Kamala said it best herself, when I guess she was supposed to be cackling like the stupid Black woman @EmmetK thinks she is: Good news for Democrats that Kamala can call out Trump's hate and lies with a smile, warmth, and exuberance. Bad news for MAGA types who prefer testosterone to facts.

Biden Will Drop Out Of 2024 Race, Will Not Endorse VP Kamala Harris Halperin was driven into exile by Me Too, appropriately. But now he is back. And apparently his sources are still good. I like this a lot. I don't think a Kamala coronation makes any sense. I think it's better for her to win the nomination the way Biden himself did in 2020: without Obama's blessing. That said, I think it is pretty clear Kamala will win the nomination. And drive a huge spike in enthusiasm and relief among the Democratic base. It does completely reset the race. Who knows what the impact will be? But, if true, there is now only one smelly disgusting lying felon in the race who can't keep his hands off women's pussies. Whether it is raping them or taking their rights away. And that disgusting old lying felon is named Donald Trump. Donald Trump is a disgusting old lying raping felon. Donald Trump should step aside immediately! America deserves better than having a disgusting old lying raping felon running for POTUS. A majority of Americans want disgusting old lying raping felon Donald Trump to step aside! @EmmetK, 57 % of Americans want your disgusting old lying raping felon to step aside. That includes the majority of Independents. They want the lying raping felon gone. Will Donald Trump listen to Americans and withdraw from the race tonight, like the majority of Americans want?

What did facts do to you? Did they beat you? Did they throw you down the stairs? Why do facts make you feel terror? The reason we know the election will be a Trump landslide is obvious. A brand new Ipsos polls shows a tie between Trump and Harris: 44/44. Is that how we know Trump will win in a landslide? Which do you hate more, @EmmetK? Facts, or Kamala Harris? I just looked on 538 and in the last week or so I see five national polls that show Harris and Trump in head to heads. They range from Kamala tied, which is the Ipsos poll above, to Kamala behind 5 points. If I average them out she is 2 to 3 points behind Trump in polls right now. About the same as Biden and Trump. Fun fact: in 2016, Trump was about the same number of points behind Hillary in July. Who won the election? Or is that a fact you don't care about, @EmmetK? You only like culty facts. The idea that Trump always wins and is always right is a culty fact, correct? What's also interesting is that, especially in state polls, there have to be a lot of people who don't know who Kamala Harris is. Jill Biden once told a story about how one of her college students saw a picture of her with Michelle Obama, and wondered how she knew the First Lady. The student had no idea that she was the wife of the Vice President. So I suspect that in some of these polls people have no idea who Kamala Harris is, or what they think about her. A new state poll of Pennsylvania is a good example. It shows Trump leading Biden by four (49/45), and Trump leading Harris by seven (47/40). Well, that's because Kamala cackles, right? No. That's because racist idiots like @EmmetK love to kick the shit out of an articulate Black women as a DEI candidate, somehow thinking that will help win "the Black vote". Even though Kamala has won every race - DA, AG, Senator - she actually contested. How dumb is that of @EmmetK? Even Trump is not THAT stupid or racist. No wonder this guy hates facts. For anyone who is tolerant of facts, here is what the actual pollster says: I specifically mention Pennsylvania because of the three Rust Belt states Biden or Harris MUST win, Biden polls furthest behind in PA right now. So what we know based on this poll is that in a race of two knowns, Trump/Biden, this poll says Trump can get up to 49 %. In a race with a lesser known, Harris, Trump gets up to 47 %. In other words, we really have no idea what happens if and when Kamala is the nominee, and the focus of intense national scrutiny. But one thing we do know, for sure, is idiots like @EmmetK won't be able to resist saying dumb and racist things about Black women that will drive Blacks to Kamala. One other thing we know for sure. The Pennsylvania Senate race is not even close. Democrat Casey is clobbering Republican McCormick by six points, way more than Trump is clobbering Biden or Kamala in national polls. So it is one of an almost universal set of data points that shows one person is a drag on the generic Democratic ticket: Joe Biden. Baldwin is up 5 in WI, Slotkin is up 5 in MI, Gallego is up 3 in AZ, Rosen is up 5 in NV, Brown is up 5 in OH. Tester, who was leading in every poll months ago, is now down 1.5 %. So it makes it very clear that there is something specific about Joe Biden that makes him run worse than almost every other Democrat. And now we have heard why with our own ears. I don't think seeing is believing, in this case. Most Americans agree both Trump and Biden look too old. The issue is hearing. Something has changed in Biden in the last year. That seems clear. You can listen to his speeches given in 2022, when Democrats crushed the red wave, and hear the difference. That's Fall 2022. He seemed fine then. He does not sound the same today. Kamala, meanwhile, burns with passion when she speaks.

Pelosi told Biden: You’re dragging down Democrats Here's today's pop quiz for politics junkies. In her entire career, how many life and death political fights has Nancy Pelosi actually lost? Excuse me. Oh. The Divine Miss Graham has something she'd like to say.

I agree with you. The only thing I'll add is that the Presidential candidates have the megaphone. This actually worked well in 2020 and 2022. Biden led the message that Trump is a threat to democracy. The message was echoed and augmented by lots and lots of winning Democratic candidates. Talking about all the specific threats to democracy - and the working class - in hundreds of pages of authoritarian crap written by (name lots of former Trump White House and department employees) is exactly the right message.

It seems now almost impossible for Biden to stay in the race. There was some recent poll Harry Enten was blabbing about on CNN a few weeks ago showing a majority of Democrats want Biden to stay in the race. Biden certainly used that to argue this was just about elitists picking on him, not regular Democrats. But there are now multiple polls, one Ipsos and one the AP/NORC poll above, showing 2 in 3 Democrats want Biden out. You can't win an election when two-thirds of your own party would prefer not to vote for you! Schumer apparently told him he should drop out this weekend, according to ABC. Pelosi seems to be kind of saying, "President Biden is dropping out of the race, and he needs to decide when he is going to decide that." Politics is a team sport. And if your team is increasingly making it clear they are no longer is with you, there's not much Biden can do. By the way, 51 % of Independents want Trump to drop out, too. If Biden does drop out, that becomes an immediate problem for Trump.

Thankfully, the cult has some taste and manners. I would almost have guessed the NRA would be pushing souvenir AR-15s. With a free American flag and iconic photos of Trump after coming within a few inches of being assassinated by a gun that was way too easy to get. But why would we talk about gun control, anyway? President Biden renews call to ban AR-15 rifles after Trump assassination attempt

What's interesting right now is that if there is no Donald Trump, there is no Republican Party. On the other hand, if there is no Joe Biden, most Democrats would go, "Great. Then let's move on with it." In the short term, I guess that looks good for Trump. But rumor has it the guy is pushing 80. MAGA should enjoy having a cult leader while it lasts. Meanwhile, in the long term, Democrats are gradually making the transitions they need to. Pelosi is out. Jeffries is in. If Biden were to step aside, at least the polls indicate Harris would do just as well. The Democratic Party is not acting like a cult. That may actually be why Biden wins. Independents overwhelmingly feel Biden is too old, Trump is too old, and they want neither. It may be that in the end they say, "Let's take the one that is too old, but at least is not a whack job cult leader."

I'm actually kind of glad Trump picked Vance. We've been hearing about nascent Republican working class populism for years. Vance is one of the people associated with these vague ideas. So why not give it a whirl? It's an interesting concept. We don't have to question why Trump picked Mike Pence in 2016. Trump got a lot of evangelical votes. And he personally picked the SCOTUS justices who killed a woman's freedom to choose. I am sure Mike Pence even prayed for those judges. What Trump and Pence did is deeply unpopular. But absolutely no bullshit there. Trump is a master of bullshit. So it will be interesting to see how it works to pick someone like Vance, who stands for the bullshit idea that the heart and soul of MAGA is the working class. Example: Vance likes working people. So he is against the PRO Act, the #1 priority of labor unions. Vance likes working people, not "corporate pigs". So he runs with the guy who passed the biggest hog feed tax cut to billionaires and corporations ever, who wants to get elected so he can do it again. Huh? Seems like an extra large slice of bullshit to me. Just like Trump is now trying to disavow grabbing and fucking with the pussies of women in every state, either with his gross old hands or his right wing judges. But let them shit it all out in public and see if America wants to buy what looks, smells, and (ugh!) tastes like a big ass Trump/Vance turd. J.D. Vance on Elizabeth Warren, Steve Bannon and What’s Wrong With the GOP If you have any level of tolerance whatsoever for J.D. Vance's (so far) vague and ineffective ideas, that is a good read. I will say this. He offers two things Trump does not have, or want. One, Vance is clearly interested in policy. Trump is simply a venal political animal. I doubt Vance will win any policy fights with Trump, though. Two, Vance is actually interested in how to work Congress and get laws passed. Trump showed no interest in that in his first term. Infrastructure bill, anyone? That said, Trump did give Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, and every billionaire and corporation who ever donated money to Republicans the deficit producing tax cuts they paid for. This could be at least a little interesting. That said, Vance's claim to political fame so far is a railroad safety bill he can't get passed. Because it is opposed by exactly the kind of monied corporate special interests that have bought and paid for most Republican Senators and House members. Meanwhile, Biden got an infrastructure bill, and a manufacturing bill, and a stimulus bill passed that all helped make America the leading economy in the world coming out of COVID. Vance talks about how he wants to do good stuff for the people left behind. Biden and Democrats passed a child tax credit that helped 50 million working class family members, and reduced child poverty in half. Until Republicans killed it. Because they don't have money for poor people, or Hispanic kids, or working class men in unions. But they do have money for billionaire and corporate tax cuts. Seems like the same old Republican bullshit to me. But it will be fun to watch Trump and Vance try to sell the same old turd as something fresh and new.

No. After carefully seeking medical advice, as well as consulting Mother, he apparently decided to abort his unchaste political party. Ironic, huh?

He tried. Republicans and the NRA stopped him.

That makes more sense. Trump no doubt thought it was a bullet. But it's hard to imagine if it struck his ear it would not have done more damage. Thank God the shooter missed. An assassination would have plunged us into true chaos. All the grown ups are denouncing political violence. Hopefully this cools down some of the violent rhetoric being used.

Okay. Let's have the facts. How many Russian criminals and ethnic minorities has Genocide Man processed into fertilizer? What did he have to pay their families to use them as human fertilizer for his genocide in Ukraine?