stevenkesslar

I'll take that as a serious comment and post this excellent piece by a moderate about working class voters and immigration. A Masterclass on Not Treating the Working Class as Second Class The whole essay is excellent. I'll add a few facts that surprised me. Lower-income working class voters (meaning without college degrees, as is the norm to define "working class" now) split almost evenly between Trump and Biden in 2020. So the idea that non-college working class voters are now overwhelming Republican is NOT true. The working class voters (meaning ones with no college degree) who are most for Trump are three things: White, and evangelicals, and relatively affluent. And it is the extreme culture war stuff that plays particularly well among White working class evangelicals. As that essay argues, most working class people - especially those who are not evangelicals - do NOT like the extreme culture war stuff. But they also don't like "open borders" immigration policies they associate with Biden and Harris. That was written two months ago. In theory, that was a path for RFK, Jr. But his campaign has basically dried up, and Biden has dropped out. I think a way to think about that now is it is great political advice for Kamala Harris. This is probably the best argument for bringing Mark Kelly into this race. He is a moderate. He went after Biden on immigration. He is seen as one of those people who genuinely wants to reach out to Republicans and find middle ground. The perfect symbol of that is an immigration bill crafted by Kyrsten Sinema and one of the most respected and conservative Republicans around. That bill failed, thanks to Trump being more interested in political attacks and his own power than in actual compromise. Regardless, Biden took executive actions that have slowed down border crossings. A Harris/Kelly ticket is a new chance to talk about immigration and sensible middle ground reforms that support the working class that lives in America already and that both sides can agree to. Guess how much border crossing numbers plummeted after Biden put in a new policy Trump is in it for himself, and his own power. He does not want compromise. He does not want change, other than to put his own lying ass back in power. Trump has no record to run on. He killed manufacturing jobs in America. The lying raping sack of shit is one of the few US Presidents who left office after a record of division and lies with fewer factory workers than when he started. What a lying sack of shit. All Trump does is lie to the voters who want him to step aside. Biden brought back almost 1 million manufacturing jobs. The factories that will build all these chips under Biden's bipartisan CHIPS law are being built in Arizona, like crazy. So Mark Kelly is the guy who can talk about working class factory jobs in Arizona, and a bipartisan and moderate approach to immigration.

I'm impressed that Halperin turned out to be right. He put his ass out there on the thread I started, saying from his sources it would be as early as Sunday. And he was right. If any of you political whores are interested this is an instant one hour commentary podcast Halperin just did after the announcement, with lots of smart operatives including Morning Joe on board. Smart discussion. The audio goes out at points but it captures a lot of good initial thinking by political pros, including Halperin.

I would not object, for sure. But I think it is better to kick the ass of the fake sycophant who supposedly represents the future of MAGA Trump worship and ass kissing: JD Vance. My Sister in Cock Suckrates is right. JD gets the eyeliner vote. Other than that, I think it is all bullshit about how they love the working class as they give tax cuts to billionaires like JD's more recent ass kissing pal Peter Thiel. Secretary Pete is right. This is simple. This is about what rich White guys want. Women should work at Walmart and have babies. No abortions. And maybe they'll get a $100 tax cut while Peter Thiel gets a fortune. Fuck Trump. The lying raping felon should resign, like America wants. Give JD and his ass licking a chance, and let's kill that cancer before it can grow.

Watch this guy. Helps put Arizona in play. Helps with the White male vote in all the swing states. Helps tone down immigration. Wife is a national hero on gun control. Massive crossover appeal to Never Trump and moderate Republicans.

You know he already did, right?

71 % of Americans want Joe Biden to drop out. 57 % of Americans want Donald Trump to drop out. Strong majorities want both old men gone. The difference in percentages is that Democrats have had an honest discussion of the fact that Biden's age raises questions about his ability to serve four more years. That is now off the table. He listened to Americans, including 2 in 3 Democrats, and is gone. When will Trump stop lying to Americans, and start listening to them? 57 % of America wants the lying raping felon gone. The issue with Trump is worse. It's not that he is old, and people question whether he can serve until he is 88. It is that he is a crook, a rapist, and a liar with no integrity. He lies constantly. He rapes. He breaks laws. He undercuts democracy. He tries to steal elections. He is a thug, a bully, and a felon. When will Donald Trump listen to the American voters and drop out? America does not want his old lying raping stench around anymore. We fired him once. If he won't listen to America and drop out we will have to fire him again. I mean, fire the sad and weak raping lying felon from the fake dictatorship he enjoys at his right--wing rallies, where he is treated like The Messiah. Joe Biden listened to the Lord Almighty, and America, and dropped out. Donald Trump and his radical followers believe he is the Lord Almighty. Ugh! The concern that Trump is a lying rapist felon with no integrity who should not lead America has been growing for a decade. Poll: Most Americans say Biden and Trump are not 'fit' to serve as president That poll is from almost exactly one year ago. The belief that Biden and Trump need to drop out has only grown. With Biden, it grew from 55 % a year agoto 71 % now, based on perceptions of his age. With Trump it grew from 53 % a year ago to 57 % now, based on the fact he is a crook with no integrity. Vast majorities of Americans have believed for years that Donald Trump is a crook who is not fit to be President. When will this lying raping felon step aside and stop being a disgrace to America, democracy, and the rule of law?

Reagan did not have dementia while in office, according to the doctors who treated him for Alzheimers 15 years later. Where do you get your facts from? Is there some doctor that says Reagan had dementia in 1988? So you are saying Biden "appears" to have instructed his Press Secretary to lie. Do you have anything whatsoever to back that up? It would take a vast conspiracy to cover up a diagnosis like you are suggesting has been given, and is being lied about. Yes, you are saying Biden is directly lying to the American people. You are saying he has Parkinsons, is lying about it, and is instructing his Press Secretary to lie about it. Is there any evidence to support this? Yes. You are saying you "suspect" Biden has been diagnosed with Parkinsons, is lying about it, and has instructed his Press Secretary to lie to the world about it. And, no, you are not making a fool of yourself. I "suspect" all these statements are based on facts you can support. Anyways, we both got what we wanted. Biden has resigned. And, at least I'm happy he threw his weight behind Kamala. I think the single most important thing right now is the Democratic Party unifies and goes into FIGHT and FACT mode.

Kick Ass Kamala has themes written for her already: WE HAVE TO FIGHT

Biden has dropped out This is not a talking point, clown. When will lying rapist Trump drop out? 57 % of Americans, and a majority of Independents want the lying raping felon to drop out. Trump trashes democracy. Trump blew up the deficit with his Trump tax cuts for billionaires. Trump extremist judges killed Roe v. Wade. Trump is a liar. Trump is a rapist. Trump is a felon. America wants Trump to drop out. When will Trump leave? Or will he just keep trying to kill democracy instead?

Speaking of which: Biden on trickle down, 2021 Biden on trickle down, 2023 And Biden on trickle down, January 2024: I think this is what people love about Joe Biden. He is committed to progressive ideas, like that the rich should pay their fair share of taxes. And he is passionate about it. So I picked those three videos for a reason. You can see the passion in each video. But you can also see the aging. There is no demented Joe Biden here. The first two clips last just a minute or two. Even in the longer 2024 version, the last video, he is passionate and funny at times. That last 23 minute video is from January 2024. (The trickle down rap, which is good, is from 15:00 to 17:00). That's before the SOTU address he aced, and a month before his last cognitive test that he says he aced. So it should be no surprise that Biden was mostly on message and did just fine here. But if you listen to the first few minutes of the last video, especially, when he was maybe warming up, you can also hear the confusion about his son, and about a US Rep. And "anyway". And the verbal stumbling and stuttering that he seems to be doing more and more. That's not dementia. But it's not inspiring. I know I am over the top on posting today. I spent the whole day watching every video of Joe Biden speaking I could find on YouTube from the last six months or so. I just felt like immersing myself in Joe Biden in a way I never have before. I don't think there is an argument that Biden is demented. I'm no doctor. But I'm almost certain someone with dementia could not be doing what Biden is doing in any of those videos. I think the issue is 100 % political, not medical. It's about Biden as a candidate. But it's also about what Biden would be like as President in a second term. Trump has built his most professional campaign ever, with two leaders who know how to take their opponents out. Susie Wiles built Ron DeSantis up, then tore him down. Chris LaCivita destroyed John Kerry by Swiftboating him. Their plan now is to destroy Biden for being old, weak, and feeble. And it's hard to watch these recent videos and not believe that Biden himself is making their case for them. That Howard Stern interview is a long watch. And a very moving video. It's only two months old. If Biden were retired, and he were just reflecting on his life, the easy conclusion is that this is why people love Joe Biden. Over 1 million people viewed this video. And the comments are overwhelmingly positive and flattering. Even adoring. One recent comment from two weeks ago states, "All those deserting him after the debate should watch this interview." But I think that cuts both ways. I can definitely see that this is the Joe Biden that is compassionate, and older and wiser. And I can also see why Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita think this is the Joe Biden that can easily be portrayed as old, weak, and feeble. And thus defeated. There's a particularly poignant moment at 1:07:00 that relates to what is happening now. He's told the story in many interviews about how his dying son Beau made him promise to not quit, to not step back from public life. So in addition to whatever his wife and bat shit crazy Hunter are telling him, who knows what Biden is thinking about his promise to his dead son? But I know where I hope Biden gets to in his mind and heart, after watching this video. He's the guy who said yes to our first Black President, by being his Veep. And he's the guy who will hand over power to our first Black female President, who served as his Veep. And he's the guy who helped beat Trump, twice. Beau, and his Mom, would be very proud of that.

Of course we never know for sure whether what these reporters say based on inside sources is true. But I have read that so many times - at least dozens - that I assume it is true. I think I've probably read it maybe a dozen times just in the last week, in the context of what Obama and Pelosi and Schumer are doing now. In a few contexts. One, these are the geniuses who decided Hillary should run in 2016. Two, these are the geniuses who managed to blow the 1994 and 2010 midterms. Look what I (Biden speaking) did in 2022. How many dozens of Democrats did I dispatch to the grave? (Answer: almost none.) I'm sure Biden is extremely proud of how Democrats navigated the 2022 midterms on his watch. Which he should be. But if any of that is true, it's not the best Joe. Both Claire McCaskill and Heidi Heitkamp, who are both now MSNBC talking heads, said pretty much the same thing on TV the last few days. This is not an appropriate time for Biden to be angry. This is a team sport. And, in a sense, you could say Biden is being asked to take one for the team. (My words, not theirs, but I think it reflects their main point.) McCaskill and Heitkamp should know. I love them both. They took one for the team when they got buried in Missouri and North Dakota in the 2018 red wave in red states. They are the kind of red state moderate Democratic Senators we need to nurture and love more of, if we are ever going to have 60 votes in the Senate again. And they are right that it doesn't help if we lose Jon Tester or Sherrod Brown. And when all these people with very good political acumen are all saying the same thing - Biden is simply a drag on the ticket - you have to listen. To be a bit more cynical, what I find even more convincing is this. When Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita base the entire Trump 2024 campaign on one theme - Biden is weak, old, and feeble - Democrats should listen. There is no guarantee that switching the candidate they have built an army to defeat will fuck them up. But I think it will probably fuck them up. I think suddenly Trump becomes the one who is the old crook and rapist, with a tough prosecutor coming after his sorry lying ass. That's not my idea. That's the thing a majority of Americans say about Trump in polls, and have for years. He is a crook, with no integrity, and he should stand down as the nominee. So I think if Biden listens to people - including most Democrats - this will fuck Trump up. Then Trump is the old raping asshole who the majority of Independents want to stand down. That's what I mean when I say Biden, who is not senile, is being asked to take one for the team. And, if the team is right, he's being asked to do this based on the principles he says he most cherishes and wants to defend. So that's the fascinating counterfactual. And on this one, I am just going to argue Lichtman's Keys are right. He's been right 10 out of 10 times, by my count. (Gore in 2000 can be debated.) And his argument makes perfect common sense. People vote based on how Presidents and their parties have governed, not based on how well they debate or campaign. Let alone polls, or stupid ads. So Lichtman says that Joe Biden or any Democrat non-incumbent would have lost in 2016. It had nothing to do with Hillary being a woman, or being a Clinton. But if Obama had been able to run for a third term as an incumbent in 2016, with his party unified behind him, Obama would have won. If you buy that, which I do, Biden was lucky. Hillary was the one who took one for the team in 2016. Since Lichtman says whoever ran in 2016 was going to lose - even running against a sorry loser like Trump. Lichtman also argues that whoever ran in 2020 was going to beat Trump, who had governed poorly and now had the Keys turned against him. I buy that, too. We can't have a redo. But had we Democrats not chosen Biden, we would not have this problem now. I am a Lichtman fanatic, and have been for many years. His theory makes sense in practice. But, more important, I'm a pragmatist who likes to win. And he has been right every fucking time. But I do have one philosophical problem with his theory. If you buy it, he basically argues that what the challenging candidates do and say in campaigns is pretty much irrelevant. Only one of his keys indirectly deals with that: challenger charisma. So he says Obama would have won, anyway. But it helped in 2008 that Obama could draw in people from the other side. Just like in 1980 Reagan would have won, anyway. But it helped that he had charisma and was able to draw in "Reagan Democrats". But his system definitely suggests Biden's argument is correct. Forget about debates and polls and what David Axelrod says. They are overrated. People will decide based on how Joe Biden governed. Period. And right now that bet looks good for Biden. So the last thing we should do is throw Biden under the bus. The problem, to me, is his system suggests that what Biden may do in 2025 or 2026 or 2027 or 2028 is irrelevant. Whether he is sane, or even alive, is irrelevant. Why even think about it? And Lichtman may be right. The closest precedent was 1984, when Reagan was arguably in worse shape than Biden cognitively. Who cared? He was the incumbent, running on a good record. And he won in a landslide. Lichtman is saying Biden is poised to do the same. And Democrats may be about to fuck it up, because some rich donor is wetting his pants. Again, speaking as a Lichtman fanatic, I know how I have squared this circle. This has to be viewed by Democrats as a bet on the future. Which is, I would guess, exactly what Team Pelosi is thinking. And as soon as you say that, it is outside the scope of what Lichtman even claims to be good at. And you also have to start with the idea that if 70 % of Americans, including 65 % of Democrats, think Biden is not the right guy, they are probably right. And the reason they are probably right is not about what Biden did in 2020, or 2022. Or even how he debates in 2024. It's about what they see coming down the road for Biden in 2025, and 2026, and 2027, and 2028. I'm not a doctor. But when I listen to Biden today, it's hard to think 70 % of Americans are wrong. Months ago, Lichtman was saying loudly that Biden was down only 2 of the 6 keys Biden would need to lose to predict his defeat. So a lot would have to change for Democrats to lose. Well, it has. In June, right before the debate, Lichtman said that if nothing else changes, Democrats will probably lose 2 more of his Keys (both the foreign policy Keys) when he makes his final prediction in August. So if that is where he ends up, with Biden as nominee, he's down 4 keys. And Biden wins. Losing the incumbency is key five. And that seems a given now. If Biden steps aside as nominee, he will not resign. In fact, the only reason I can see him accepting this in his mind is that he will have to believe he can help Kamala win, and seal Trump's fate. So that leaves one key: party unity. Either Democrats are able to unify and turn this to their advantage under Harris. Or we basically just nailed our coffin shut. Bad news: maybe we are about to die. Good news: we get to decide our own fate. I'll add a caveat to what Lichtman says about 2016 that is perhaps THE most important issue for Democrats right now. Lichtman turned six keys against the Democrats in 2016, and two were that Hillary was not the incumbent, and there was a massive divisive fight among Democrats. If Kamala is not the incumbent, it recreates that situation. But I think it is just common sense that right now there is not a food fight between Sandernistas and Clintonians. Quite the opposite. The whole point is Democrats are unified against Trump, but they think Biden has lost the ability to lead the fight. Lichtman himself has said on his podcast that is not at all predetermined that this has to end in a big Democratic brawl. If Democrats can unify around Kamala, it in fact prevents the fatal sixth key from turning against her in Lichtman's system. To get off Lichtman, I do see see this as a bet, and a reasonable one, on the future. Even if Biden/Harris wins, it now seems clear that it's going to be ugly as Biden keeps aging. Lichtman is probably right, in concept and in practice. That will only matter at the level of Presidential vote in 2028, when people are judging the last four years. If 2027 is when Biden can't even complete a sentence, or has a stroke, Democrats can kick the can down the road to 2028 in terms of any price they pay. Or, if Harris simply takes his place, like many other Presidents have, there may be no price to pay. But 2 in 3 Democrats would rather just avoid going down that road completely. It's a bet. But it makes sense to me. If things go well, Democrats prove to be the adults in the room who listen to 70 % of America, make a change, and try to give Americans what they actually want. That is not obviously a recipe for failure. But the thing that Lichtman is saying that makes common sense, and that the soul leaders of my party - like Jim Clyburn - are saying, is that this has to be grounded and presented in unity. This can't be an ugly food fight. Michelle Obama does have to show up in Chicago and tell America why she thinks Kamala Harris is the right choice. And why Donald Trump is the wrong one. It's a wise bet to make, I think. But I can feel for Joe, and how it's a bitter pill for him to swallow. To end with your simple point, which I of course blew up into a rant, I think Biden would have lost in 2016. He was lucky to run in 2020, when he could win. Now he should focus on what he wants history to say about him, and America.

Okay. I'll play. You obviously have vast expertise, and I am obviously making a fool of myself. One, are you saying there is a vast conspiracy to cover up a diagnosis Biden has been given? Because if he has been diagnosed with dementia, or Parkinsons, or any other cognitive impairment, it would take a vast conspiracy to cover that up. Recall that Trump was impeached, twice, for things as simple as sentences he uttered during phone calls. Or what he did over the course of a few hours when he was in The White House. So if Biden is hiding a diagnosis, Republicans would be very likely to figure it out somehow. Two, are you saying Biden is directly lying to Americans on a simple "yes or no" question of vast political importance? He has said repeatedly lately that he has been given "significant and intense neurological exams" three times as President, as recently as this February, and "no" such diagnosis has been given. During his BET interview, he said if a doctor did tell him he a health condition that impaired his ability to serve, he would the consider resigning, but "no" such diagnosis has been given. Granted, we know Biden wiggles around the truth. Like he definitely wiggled around the truth about how much he knew about his son's business. But this is a very consequential issue and he has taken a very black and white position. So are you saying Biden is straight out lying to the American people about a diagnosis he has been given? Three, are you qualified to diagnose Biden with dementia, or any other cognitive impairment? Since you are a doctor, and I am not, please tell me your diagnosis. I think everyone wants to know. Does Biden have dementia?

You're a doctor, not a political professional. Nor are you a lawyer. So I'm really not sure why you want to litigate this point. First, I assume that is a typo. My point was about the 2024 primaries, not 2020. Second, my point is that I, like tens of millions, voted for Kamala in BOTH the 2020 general election and 2024 Democratic primary. If you want to litigate whether the name "Kamala Harris" was in small print on the ballot, go ahead. But you've once again focused on some legalistic detail and missed the whole point. I think there is only one choice not named Joe Biden available to the Democratic Party. And that is Kamala Harris. I think we mostly agree the dam has broken on Biden. I'm not sure why you want to litigate this. Other than you would rather have Michelle Obama run. Give her a call and see if you can talk her into it. 😉 I think if Biden had been diagnosed with dementia or Parkinsons, we would know. Don't you? I think he actually did an excellent job in the BET interview doing two things: 1) Establishing that while he is old, and looks weak, he is not demented. And 2) Establishing the right criteria for why, hypothetically, he should resign either now or into a second term. He said the reason he would do it is if he is diagnosed with some medical condition that makes him incapable of serving. He's right. Republicans will of course argue he was demented in 2012. Or he was demented in 2020. Or he was born demented. Or whatever. Unless Trump, who can't speak coherently, can tell us what the hidden diagnosis is, it is total political bullshit. What is not total political bullshit is that Kamala Harris will make Trump look very old, and very creepy, by comparison. Just like the raping lying felon he is. I think this is very important. When Biden announces he is no longer the nominee, he will be crucified by Republicans calling on him to resign. There will be this whole bullshit ritual of "When did you know he was demented, and what did you do?" So this is a key point. Is there proof that Donald Trump is a crook? YES. We have proof. Is there proof that Donald Trump is a rapist? YES. We have proof. Is there proof that Joe Biden is demented? NO. There is zero proof. Biden can be both a good President from 2020 to 2024 and the wrong Presidential candidate for 2025 to 2028. It has nothing to do with dementia. And at this point I'm not even sure what the word "choice" means, realistically. Biden has been so fatally damaged by his own party leaders that this is now impossible to reverse. And even if Biden's dwindling base of supporters says, "Those elitist horrible pigs! Barack Obama! Pig! Nancy Pelosi! Pig! Chuck Schumer! Pig! Hakeem Jeffries! Pig! Disgusting elitist pigs - every one!" there's still a problem. A poll says 2 in 3 DEMOCRATS want Biden to resign. More than one poll. And, let's not forget, 57 % of Americans want Donald Trump to resign, too. So who is going to listen to the people? I think Trump's MAGA supporters are fucked, and fucked, and fucked. They will say this is a coup. Right. Tell us about coups, Donald Trump. Tells us about cops, and hanging Mike Pence, and breaking the bones of the cops you adore. Liar. Thug. Crook. Harris was the #2 chosen by a collective 95 million voters. 81 million in 2020, and 14 million in 2024. Polls say most Democrats, most Independents, and almost all Republicans think Biden is too old, and they want him gone. He can choose, and almost certainly will choose, to step aside. Polls also say most Americans want Donald Trump gone, too. Because he is a crook, a liar, and a rapist with no integrity. Will Trump listen to American voters and step aside? We'll see how Susie Wiles deals with that little problem. Democratic consensus solidifies around Harris, should Biden step aside I laughed when I read that statement. Because I think it is one of the most honest statements I have read. As fucked up as everything is right now, for Democrats, I actually do see this as a blessing in disguise. Both for Democrats, and America. If 2 in 3 Democrats say Biden should step aside, that's a lot of people. Biden is a massive drag on the young voters Democrats desperately need to win, in particular. Harris will fire them up. And it's absolutely predictable that old rich white donors would say (name a White male) should be the candidate instead. And they may not be wrong. Who knows? I can see how Andy Beshear or Roy Cooper or Joel Shapiro or Mark Kelly might be great, moderate candidates. Or not. Either way, donors don't get to choose. The interesting bet now is which one of those White moderate guys will be Kamala's running mate? Or maybe Kamala will double down and go for Gretchen. I bet we will be there soon. That statement about exhaustion is very true. The smartest people in the room (to name a few, Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama and Jim Clyburn) probably knew right away that any road around Joe Biden had to go straight to Kamala Harris. But they have sat back while the MSM entertained this set of amusing ideas. Like maybe Taylor Swift should host a primary. Or whatever. But at some point, sooner and sooner, Biden will get tired of fighting. And the donors will just STFU and give their money and want to get on with it. And hopefully we have not nailed our coffin shut by dumping Biden, as Lichtman is very wisely warning us. The good news I take out of his Keys is that every serious Democrat saying anything on TV or social media is using the word UNITY. (If you are interested, here's Jim Clyburn today preaching the gospel of unity. Having resurrected Biden from the dead in 2020, his job now seems to be to make 100 % sure there is no road around Biden that does not lead to Harris.) I do have one request. When you ask Michelle to be the Democratic nominee, and she says no (I'm just guessing), I have a Plan B. Could you ask her to be the one to nominate Kamala, and make the speech about why we need Kamala now? I can not think of a better person to summon the nation to unity and integrity than Michelle Obama!

Texas Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee dies at age 74 So while I am the worst poster in the world at keeping a thread narrowly on topic, or being terse, I thought I would start a thread to focus on Biden's medical condition. I don't see how Biden can survive as the Democratic nominee. But he will probably survive as President. That's if the reporters who are behind the endless leaks now know what they are talking about. What should people think about that, if he wants to remain as POTUS until January? Is he mentally fit to be President for six more months? Two points about Jackson Lee. First, she was a widely respected leader who deserves to be honored. Second, she is a great example of both how quickly and how clearly things can change. Part of the problem with Biden's health issues is precisely that: nothing is happening quickly, or clearly. He has not been diagnosed with cancer, or dementia, or anything that impacts his ability to lead. I mentioned in another thread that I got my Mom diagnosed with dementia - twice - in order to activate my parents' long term care policy for her. My Mom did not want to think she was demented. I know for a fact that there is a reluctance, even among mental health professionals, to make a judgment like that. One of my family members, stupidly, felt my Mom should be forcibly placed in an institution. No one, especially my Dad, agreed. But I was a good little bureaucrat and checked it out, mostly to undercut the argument. Mental health professionals told me it is very hard to force someone out of their home against their will. Let alone a helpless old woman. That killed that debate quickly, thank God. I've had two run ins with pancreatic cancer, both of which involved denial. One of my brothers died of pancreatic cancer years ago. While he did not deny his condition, he was mostly in denial about how long he would live. I spent many days with him during a one year illness, after he was finally diagnosed correctly. We'd watch "Flip or Flop" and he'd talk about how we should flip homes together once he get better. It was sweet. Even though I knew it had nothing to do with reality. His wife told me later she felt like she had to be the one to accept and manage the grim prognosis. Which she did. While I was spending last Thanksgiving with my deceased brother's family a sister-in-law called me to tell me her brother, who I also knew well, had just been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. She wanted my advice. So I told her he would probably die soon. And that this is a good time for you to create lots of lasting positive memories with a brother you love, like I did. She did, and he died two months later. A few weeks after that first conversation this sister-in-law called me and said both her brother and his wife were in denial. And she wanted to know if I would call him to tell him he was going to die, basically. I politely said I'd pass. And honestly it was probably better for him to just be in denial until he dies. So Biden seems both totally different and exactly the same. The part that feels exactly the same is that Biden is denying what almost everyone else sees. I don't think this could not have happened before the debate. Because I think millions of people needed to see it and hear it themselves. Jake Tapper has even speculated that Biden might have been set up at that debate by his own team. As in, they knew he would flounder. But it somehow needed to be made clear that what was being rumored is actually true. More likely, I think Biden's own team and family is in denial. Something has changed. You can play the speeches from 2020 and 2022 on YouTube. Biden sounds and looks different now. But there does seem to be this deep fog of denial. I have to interject here that Trump - and Republicans - are doing the same thing. Trump is a convicted felon who raped lots of women. No Republican wants to talk about that. Trump will lose because whatever is happening with Biden doesn't change the fact that Trump lies and rapes and has no integrity. Which a majority of Americans also see clearly, in poll after poll after poll. What is completely different about Biden is he has no diagnosis - yet. I'm hopeful this will end well for Democrats. Because what is happening is obvious, I think. Republicans are in complete denial about what's wrong with their candidate. And they are operating as if he is somehow America's messiah. Not the lying raping felon he actually is. Which, again, a majority of Americans see clearly, based on polls. I hope Democrats are seen as the adults in the room dealing with an ugly problem. But it is one without a diagnosis - yet. So it makes sense that Biden is denying a medical diagnosis he has not been given. Other than the fatal political diagnosis. As much as replacing Biden at the DNC is messy, people are saying - correctly - that the French and Brits somehow manage to have national elections in far less time than we do. Maybe this could be a good lesson in having shorter elections in the future. Especially since the vast majority of voters are already locked into one side. The messy part to me is Biden will want to stay on as POTUS until January. And Republicans will scream he has to resign. Because he is a national security threat. This is the party that just nominated a POTUS and Veep who want to appease Putin, and defund Ukraine. Which would have my Reagan Republican Dad rolling in his grave. National security? I think when it comes to Biden being POTUS today, and through January 2025, the most compelling fact is that Biden has no medical diagnosis that prevents him from leading. Republicans will howl and use it as a political point to undermine Harris and all Democrats. But what have they got? They deny Trump is a felon. They deny Trump is a rapist. They deny he brought a 30 % murder spike to America. They deny they want to give Ukraine a death sentence, and let Putin take over big chunks of it. So these are the people we're supposed to trust to diagnose Joe Biden? What do they know about denial? Give me a break! I already posted this on another thread, but here it is again: Reagan had years, not months, to go as POTUS at the time. If that is a standard for judging the medical status of an aging President in his final term, Biden is fine. Republicans have no argument. It was about 15 years until Reagan was diagnosed. And his doctors said this was not a condition that would have impaired him 15 years earlier. However this ends for Biden, and apart from the ugliness of this specific moment, I'm confident that history will judge him well. And Democrats will be able to look back on him as their wise old leader.

My mother had long term care insurance, and vascular dementia. So I can only comment on that. First, if I am comparing Joe Biden to my mother at that point, there is no comparison. Biden is the sanest man in the world. There are things that happened around that time I now associate with dementia, but did not at the time. The last time I flew her out to visit me in California for a week, my mother shit her pants in a shopping mall. She told me one night she wanted canned spaghetti for dinner, so I stopped and bought a can. Then I cooked the chicken I had prepared for both of us and ate alone. The next day she flew into a rage about how I made her eat food out of a can. You get the picture. I do know you're a doctor, and I am not one. I regret in retrospect that I did not have a clearer picture of what was happening. Regardless, my non-demented Dad was very old (90's) and slowing down, and my brother who was my Mom and Dad's health POA was very busy. So I asked him to let me handle my Mom's dementia diagnosis for purposes of activating her long term care, which I did. I had to get medical professionals, including her own doctor, involved. I got two different mental health diagnoses. I am good at being a bureaucrat. And I did what I needed to do to get my parents' long term care based on a dementia diagnosis activated. Biden is in much better shape than either my 90ish Mom, who was demented, or my 90ish Dad, who was still mentally sharp as a tack. Even though my Dad exhibited many of the characteristics of old age Biden does. I'd be curious to see poll results of whether people think Biden should resign immediately. As opposed to step aside as nominee. My guess is the answer would be most Democrats and probably most Independents would not see any need for Biden to resign. There is no medical diagnosis. I think the main issue, at least among most people I talk to, is that they don't think he can be POTUS in 2028 - not 2024. There is one useful historical precedent here. Somehow we survived Reagan. And there is no evidence Biden won't read short position papers or only wants to watch movies at his residence.

Again, is the problem her smile? Or you don't like effective Black women who throw lying rapist felons like Trump in ail?

Typical. You can't respond with facts. So you argue facts are fake. You can't and won't talk about how Trump killed factory jobs with his inept policies and useless tax cuts to billionaires, that did not create factory jobs but did grow a huge deficit Shame on the MAGA bullshit and MAGA lies. You want to talk about rape and murder. But you can't talk about how Trump led a 30 % murder spike in one year, or how Biden reduced murder and violent crime. You can't admit that Harris threw lying rapist felons like Trump in jail. So you lie. You make up lies and fantasies which most Independents and most Americans don't buy. Good luck with that. Trump has peaked. It is all downhill from here. His lies, his rape, his contempt for free and fair elections, his criminal behavior, and his lack of integrity will simply not work for America. It doesn't surprise me that you don't see the current polls - Trump is +3 - as a problem for Trump, not Biden. You see only what you want to see, with MAGA-colored glasses. What I take heart in is that we are living through a month that nobody would believe if it were in some novel. One party's leader is almost killed, and he is treated like Jesus. Even though most Americans and Independents say in polls that he is a felon who should step aside. Another party's leader is being humiliated on a daily basis, by his own close friends and party leaders, and will continue to be until he is forced to resign. Susie Wiles could not have hoped for more. Other than she's hope this was happening in October, not July. Which is exactly the problem you can't see. If Trump can only get to +3 when everything is going his way in a way that seems almost unimaginable, what happens when the Democrats unify around somehow who is not Joe Biden? Every other Democrat in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada is kicking their Republican opponent's ass. I have it on good word that Susie Wiles is worried about that. Why aren't you?

That's correct. Here's the reality check that matters, if you want to base your argument on reality. There are many other campaign issues that are vital. Since what this is about is not Biden's incapacity to be POTUS tomorrow. It is about Biden's inability to win based on voters' concern about his incapacity to lead an effective campaign and serve for four more years. That concern is shared by 2 in 3 Democrats, including me. And I assume you. Jen O'Malley Dillon was on Morning Joe Friday talking about the thousands of door knockers who went out and did voter ID and persuasion the past weekend. You need a campaign team, a massive GOTV operation, ads, money, everything. So the strategy of the Biden campaign is clear: "Stop worrying, start working." They are arguing that any candidate other than Biden at the top of the ticket just slows the machine down. Which is true. The machine is now sputtering. But their message is clearly failing. I think the right analogy is that most Americans have decided that the battery in the machine simply needs to be replaced. Again, 2 in 3 Democrats have. And if we are talking about campaign law, campaign management, campaign infrastructure, or campaign message, the best replacement battery is Kamala Harris. At least, that is what almost everyone good at campaign mechanics is saying. And you are saying you just don't know enough. So I would suggest you Google it and listen to what they are all saying. I think it is fascinating. You should read what I am actually posting, and have been for quite a while. I agree with Allan Lichtman. Ideally, Biden should step aside as nominee, and resign as POTUS. Not based on a dementia diagnosis, but based on his party's political diagnosis. But he won't resign, it sounds like. I think that's just reality, at least as of today. But you may disagree. I think Team Pelosi is forcing him to step aside as nominee. It is ugly to watch. But they will apply just as much pressure as they need to to force him to step aside as the Democratic nominee, reluctantly. Again, it is ugly and painful. But I think we both agree what she is doing is wise, correct? We obviously disagree about Kamala Harris. I'm a huge fan of Michelle Obama. If I smoked a lot of pot, it could be fun to get high and imagine what another Obama campaign and Presidency could look like. Or I could just watch porn and jack off. Either way, it has nothing to do with reality. You will not agree with this. But I think the political reality is that from 2020 on there has been a political marriage between Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and the leadership and base of the Democratic Party. I don't think they can remove both Joe and Kamala, for political reasons. And I think Team Pelosi, which is the center of organization of what is happening, knows this. Part of the reason why is that everyone who voted for Joe in Fall 2020 knew they were voting for Kamala. That's 81 million people. Part of the reason why is that everyone who voted for Joe in the 2024 primary (which you and I both agree was lame) knew they were voting for Kamala. Part of the reason is Nancy's #2, Jim Clyburn, who helped birth the Biden/Harris ticket in 2020, has made it absolutely clear he will go nuts if they try to move Kamala out of the way. I could go on with many other reasons, which I think you don't know about or perhaps don't care about. Anyway, my own political judgment is that the only alternative to Biden in the real world is Kamala Harris. If you disagree, great. Who do you think would be better, and what is their path to winning the nomination? I'm not saying that in some alternative America Kamala Harris would be my first choice. My own spoiled grapes argument is I wanted Warren in 2020. Had she been the nominee, I think (Lichtman would agree) she would have won. Her health is fine. And we would not be having this problem. But if I have to blame it on anyone right now, I blame it 100 % on Joe Biden. It's a tragedy. But he doesn't know when it's time to step out of the way. Since you like to talk about things you say you don't know much about, I'll share another hard story about political leadership and resigning. I recall a meeting very early in my own career with Senator Proxmire (D, WI) and my boss Gale Cincotta, mother of the anti-redlining movement. Prox was the populist Chair of the US Senate Banking Committee, and absolutely critical to everything we did: the passage of the Community Reinvestment Act, the passage of the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, a $1 billion Community Home Buyers Program with Fannie Mae and GE Capital that was my pet project at the time. That helped lay the groundwork for Bill Clinton's very effective homeownership push in the 1990's, which did a great job building wealth among working class White, Black, and Hispanic homeowners. Prox was like God to us. So he tells us in a private meeting in his office he is going to soon announce his resignation. He talked about how he saw colleagues of his being wheeled into the Senate chamber, who had no clue what they were voting for. DiFi is of course a recent example. I suspect every member of Congress has seen this, and fears it. So Gale was shocked, and it was in her nature to say he really shouldn't resign. And Gale was right that we never ever ever had a hero like that again. This is probably unrealistic on my part. But I believe if someone who took no money from the bank lobby and who had the integrity of Prox had been around 15 years later, he could have actually stooped the subprime predators who the Republicans unleashed from 2003 to 2008. Maybe a horrible American tragedy could have been stopped. Anyway, that's part of my life story. I respect what Nancy Pelosi is doing. Biden should have been like Prox. Now he is being forced out, painfully. He certainly had every opportunity to do what Bill Proxmore and most political leaders do. Which is know when it is time to leave.

Yup. Lies. Murder. Rape. Lies. Murder. Rape. Rinse and repeat. "Turn the United States into a manufacturing superpower." Sure, that is what Joe Biden is doing. Donald Trump, weak and failed raping loser, is one of the few Presidents in US history that presided over a LOSS of manufacturing jobs. Donald Trump is a weak job losing liar. Under Biden, manufacturing jobs went from 12.1 million in January 2021 to just under 13 million now. Almost 1 million new manufacturing jobs. Why would America hire a loser like Trump who killed factory jobs, instead of someone who created almost 1 million factory jobs? Lies. Murder. Rape. That's what Trump is. "Stop the migrant crime epidemic." What crime epidemic? Do we mean the 30 % spike in murder under Donald Trump? Or the 13 % decline in murder last year under Biden and Harris? Lies. Rape. Murder. Why would America hire a loser like Trump who brought an epidemic of murder and guns to America, instead of someone who brought murder and crime rates down? If Kamala is the nominee, why hire a rapist who lost and lies, as opposed to a crime fighter who threw rapists in jail? Trump is about lies, murder, and rape. That is the real thing MAGA offers. They want to bring back the lies, and the murder, and the guns, and the rape. They want to put a lying rapist loser in front of us, let him lie to us, and then call that unity. This is exactly why you lost in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023. Nice try. But you are going to lose again.

Actually, that's a good idea. Kamala Harris’ stepdaughter Ella Emhoff is promoting an $8M Gaza fundraising campaign Now imagine that. Jared, son of the last POTUS, goes off and makes a $2 billion dollar deal with the people who slice and dice journalists. Kamala and Doug's daughter goes off and does something to help innocent children who are the victims of Bibi's bloodbath. Israel and what they are doing to Gaza is a horrific mess. But I'd be proud to have Doug and Kamala's daughter representing my nation, and some sliver of hope. Naturally, the right-wing Post quotes some right-wing Republican saying these efforts to help innocent children who are being slaughtered are "abhorrent". They didn't talk about how Jared's efforts to get rich off his public service are abhorrent, though. Wonder why?

I hope they bring this up. First, how many women has Trump raped? Why don't Republicans hold this gross old man with gross grabby hands responsible for raping women? He is a felon! There is no question that Trump is a rapist. Who the fuck is a raping lying old rapist to talk about rape? Let's repeat that, so it is clear: Donald Trump is a raping lying felon. That is a fact! Donald Trump presided over a massive 30 % murder spike in America. Donald Trump brought guns and death and murder to America. Donald Trump is who you want if you want more murder. That is a fact. FBI: 2020 homicides up nearly 30%, largest 1-year jump ever Murder. Murder. Murder. Death. Death. Death. Guns. Guns. Guns. That is the factual legacy of Donald Trump, failed President who lost. Republicans won't even do anything about the specific types of assault weapons that almost killed Trump. Despite the fact that an overwhelming bipartisan majority of Americans wants an assault weapons ban. The Republicans are weak and useless when it comes to doing things that STOP MURDER. Including of their own President! What weak, useless, hypocritical assholes. They run a rapist for President, a felon, a loser, and then want to talk about how they win will with a rapist and criminal who only lies when his lips are moving. You don't give a shit about one of those individuals murdered. You are using their names to support the candidacy of a lying, raping felon. Homicides See Historic Decline In 2023 Early 2024 Data Show Promising Signs of Another Historic Decline in Gun Violence U.S. gun homicides are declining dramatically, down 13.1 percent since 2023 and 16.4 percent since 2021. If you gave a shit about murder, you would start by admitting that Biden and Harris have done a great job reversing the spike in murder and violent crime that Trump was absolutely weak and ineffective and useless in doing anything about. You'd want to have a serious discussion about why Trump's policies (flood America with guns) failed and why Biden and Harris have had way more successful policies. But you don't give a shit about actual murder and rape. Nor do you care about immigration policy. Like Trump, you would rather see bipartisan efforts fail so Trump can lie and you can elect your raping felon. Your idea of "unity" is to put a lying raping felon who lost in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023 on stage for 90 minutes so he can lie, and lie, and lie. The only thing we can agree about is that the Joe Biden of 2020 and 2022 - when the red wave disappeared - is AWOL, and sick. So the Democrats have a temporary and tragic problem with one guy, who happens to be POTUS. It is being fixed. Other than that, you ain't got shit. Well, you do have some things. Lies. Lies. Lies. Murder. Murder. Murder. Guns. Guns. Guns. Rape. Rape. Rape. And a lying rapist felon who loses every time. I can't wait for Kamala to get on a stage with him and call out his lies, his rape, and his horrific track record on murder and violent crime and rape! And please, make sure Trump makes a point to demean and degrade the accomplishments of a Black woman who was very effective at throwing rapists like Trump, and murderers, into prison! Get used to her smile, and her hope.

Until a few days ago, I was not even aware Mark Halperin was still around. I loved Game Change and all the political reporting Halperin and John Heilemann did together. Until Halperin got whacked, appropriately, by Me Too. Anyway, Halperin sure seems to have kept all his political contacts. So he has both podcast and YouTube group chats posted off his X account that are fascinating inside looks as this tragedy plays out. Most of what he's putting out there is being confirmed by other sources, like CNN and MSNBC. Although some of it is speculative. And some of it is probably being fed to Halperin, as well as others, to try to force Biden's hands. Jon Meacham quickly rebutted the idea that he is helping Biden write a speech dropping out. So based off his YouTube tonight, if Halperin is right, two things are clear. One, Biden will not resign, because he does not want to slink away. That makes sense for personal reasons, of course. But if he feels that way, it also helps end the fight and patch things up, I'd guess. Presumably, he wants to do what you said: take credit for all his accomplishments, building back from Trump's wreckage. Which no Democrat disputes. And he wants to be the outgoing President who looks on as his Democratic successor, Kamala Harris, is sworn in in January. If that is where he is, or is getting to, in his mind it gives everyone a reason to have to figure out how to end this and create a path out of hell. Two, there is a consensus that Kamala Harris has to be the nominee. But even her own people get that it does not make sense to coronate her. If that is true, it's likely they don't even have a clue what that means - yet. But it's logical that anyone who understands how campaigns work and money works, and how the base of the party works, would reach this conclusion pretty quickly. Halperin is already saying that Newsom and Shapiro and Whitmer will not challenge Kamala. Which also makes sense, since no one wants to get in the way of an organically unified "Trump must not win" steamroller. It makes sense that if Biden says he is not the nominee, Biden/Harris delegates who are pledged to that ticket would naturally tend to vote for Kamala. So it may be like the Democratic primary: not technically a coronation, but not a real fight. Halperin made lots of other interesting comments based on saying he has known Harris for over a decade. First, he thinks it would not necessarily be good for her to have to get up to speed both as a new POTUS, and as a new nominee, at the same time. That has never happened before, to my knowledge. Ford and LBJ and Truman, to name the last three, had at least a year, not months, to get used to being POTUS first. He also said she's going to have to be a better Kamala than the one she has been to win, but he sees her capable of doing that. Not sure what that means, either. But I took it as mostly a positive from a very hard assed political observer. A final point he made about Kamala is that she needs to come up with a few new policy proposals that distinguish her from Biden. Makes sense. Abortion will be one of her main rallying cries, for sure. But there are other issues I have heard her speak passionately about. Crime could actually be one of them. She has spent the majority of her political career as a successful and respected crime fighter. That may now be a plus, unlike in 2020 when BLM was rocking. Biden would also want to be the elder statesman and outgoing leader who stopped Trump once and who will now help stop him again. Who keeps the nation focused on everything he says (now somewhat incoherently, if we are being honest) about preserving democracy. But that's a plus to me. It is a good message for him, even if it is garbled these days. And he will of course want Harris, not Trump, to win. Even if he goes to the grave hating Obama and Pelosi and Schumer and knowing it should have been him instead. Denial is a powerful thing. 😉 I know nothing about Jill Biden. And maybe it is sexist to blame Joe's problems on his wife. But if I accept the plausible idea that Joe can't see his own weaknesses and decline, Jill could have helped it getting this far out in public. And if it keeps going further, it adds to the Republican argument that Biden has to resign now. Moulton said in an editorial today that his buddy Joe Biden didn't even recognize him recently. If every POTUS had to quit because he failed to recognize someone, we'd never have a POTUS. And Trump of course is not held accountable by his party for anything. But I'm guessing right now Hunter Biden is just being bat shit crazy and Jill Biden, who could be guiding Joe out of his own worst instincts, is instead probably reinforcing them. One final interesting point about what Halperin said: Mark Kelley. That's the name Halperin said is being thrown around a lot as a running mate, especially by Republicans. I assume he means Never Trump Republicans. Or maybe he means pro-Trump Republicans who are just willing to be honest about their objective read on what Democrats should do if they want to win. But it obviously would have a lot of upside in terms of balancing a ticket and also keeping Arizona in play. And Kelley would be a huge plus talking about what we need to do on immigration. Although I'd put Shapiro and Whitmer and The Rust Belt first, probably. That's a problem for down the line. Lots of ifs, and way too early to tell. But it looks like Team Pelosi may have once again shown she can pull a political rabbit out of a hat. Ironically, Nancy Pelosi is three years older than Biden. But she is out-organizing the hell out of him!

And there you have it. You are against a Black woman because she smiles? Or is it that even today, when the Democratic Party is in a big crisis and Biden is politically dead, the polls show Harris and Shapiro as a ticket will beat Trump? That is how much America rejects the lying felon who wants to unleash Putin power. And that is right after three weeks that were horrific for Democrats and great for Republicans. You do realize this is probably as good as it gets, right? Trump Is Planning for a Landslide Win And his campaign is all but praying Joe Biden doesn’t drop out. I think that article is a must read for anyone who wants to understand how Trump could win, and why he will probably lose. The full article Tim Alberta wrote is in The Atlantic, behind a paywall. That tells you enough to get the broad idea of what Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita were well on their way to doing. They need to be taken as seriously as a heart attack, since Wiles did do it to Democrats in Florida (and to Ron DeSantis, for Trump). And LaCivita did it to John Kerry in 2004. You can argue right now Democrats are doing Trump's job for him. Or you can argue that Wiles and LaCivita are a bit too smart and way too cynical for their own good. So the campaign they hoped to win through disillusionment and dirt is now completely going to backfire on them. They want Trump to be the strong alpha male running against a Biden that is old, weak, and feeble. Instead, they are going to have to defend an old crook and liar against a prosecutor who is particularly gifted at throwing narcissistic lying rapists in prison. Game on! I'm going to quote from this extensive interview Ezra Klein did with Tim Alberta, about the core of the Trump 2024 strategy. It's quite easy to see how Biden loses if 2024 is a referendum on Biden's age, as a symbol for all these other things wrong with Democrats - like weakness. In fact, it's impossible to NOT see how Biden loses if 2024 is a referendum on his age. He has lost. His campaign is all but over. Now that all the leaders of the Democratic Party have spent weeks making the Trump campaign's case, there is no way Biden can continue. He has to know that, even if he can't say it publicly yet. The main thing Wiles and LaCivita were smart about is building a campaign around something that is obviously true: Biden is old. Biden helped them along simply by making it painfully obvious, first in a debate and then in every time he has appeared in public since. The fact that I keep coming back to is that every Democrat in every swing state is doing well, apart from Biden. Every Democratic Senate candidate, in particular, is ahead of their Republican opponent. And, with the exception of Nevada, which elected a Republican Governor, these are all states - Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, (and Georgia when it comes to Senate races at least) - where Democrats keep winning statewide races. Republicans obviously think, or at least pretend they think, that if Biden is gone they can just use the same playbook on anyone else. But, as Alberta argues, they can't. And they know they can't. They can and will go after Harris hard on immigration. But the main argument they make about immigrants is that they will murder, rape, and eat you. Which is factually incorrect, since undocumented immigrants are less likely to commit crimes, including violent crimes. Since they want nothing to do with cops But forget about facts. Who is the bad ass that actually prosecuted lots of murderers and rapists? Kamala Harris, or Donald Trump? Why won't Republicans admit that murder and violent crime spiked 30 % under Trump? Why won't Republicans admit that murder and violent crime dropped over 10 % under Biden and Harris last year? Why won't Republicans admit their refusal to do anything about assault weapons came within an inch of killing their own candidate for President? If Republicans want to talk about murder and rape in America, that's a great debate for a Black female prosecutor to engage in. But she will demand that a felon and rapist and liar like Trump has to at least try to tell the truth once in a while! Wiles and LaCivita may have turned out to be too cynical for their own good. They are now the ones who are going to have the tired old lying crook, who is weak on crime and weak on rape and weak on telling the truth and weak on upholding the rule of law, as their weak candidate. Even right now, at their best moment, the polls show a ticket led by Harris and Shapiro or Whitmer will beat them.

No. But I do need a phone number. 😉