stevenkesslar

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Letter7.8.24.pdf Again, you are factually incorrect. I'm really trying to end this. It is boring, and repetitive. But when you keep saying things that are wrong, I think it is appropriate to keep saying you have now, yet again, said more false things. You obviously think that the letter from Biden's doctor can't be trusted. You have stated, or implied in your condescending tone, that I am a fool to think that what Biden, or his doctor, or his press secretary say, actually can be trusted. And yet, there is a letter from a doctor that spells it all out. One might think a medical professional might consider what an actual doctor treating Biden says. Just like one might think a medical professional like you might consider what Reagan's doctors actually said before you stated Reagan had dementia while he was POTUS. But no. You just love to speculate. So speculate away. But please be aware that the actual doctor treating Biden did not diagnose him earlier this year with any of the things you stated above. You can ignore all that, if you wish. Call me a fool. But I would rather take Biden's doctor for his word than take your uninformed speculation as fact. This does matter because right now other uninformed political hacks, like Speaker Johnson and Sen. Vance, are pushing "baloney" about how Biden should resign immediately based on some undiagnosed medical condition his doctor says he doesn't have.

LOL. You keep forgetting Biden and Harris won in 2020. Are you ever going to accept that Trump is a rapist, a felon, and a loser? Oh. And you keep forgetting you lost in 2018. And 2020. And 2022. And 2023. And you will lose in 2024. Poor thing. The one thing I would call a victory on the GOP side is that Kevin McCarthy, who comes from a diverse district in California, said we need to integrate the Republican Party. His approach was very different than Donald Trump publicly disgracing a Black female Republican House member, Mia Love. Who lost in 2018, because she did not "give me love", in Trump's gross old raping lying words. This is why most Americans can't wait to vote against the raping lying felon. Anyway, what did McCarthy do? He found Black and Hispanic conservatives and got them elected. What did the GOP do? They fired McCarthy. And now you are going back to attacking a Black woman because she cackles. You really have no clue, do you, clown? So Harris (the poll, not the next POTUS) is the most pro-GOP of polls. And this poll is very useful because it gives us a baseline. Penn says that the country is +5 Republican now, in his new poll. The 538 average says the country is actually dead even right now, 44.5 to 44.5, on the generic Congressional vote. They include Harris being R + 5 in that average. So it suggests that Harris leans about +5 to Trump, compared to other polls. If true, which I think it is, that means Harris and Trump are actually tied in favorability right now. CNN did an average of polls (pre-Sunday) and found Trump/Harris is too close to call, since Harris does slightly better than Biden. In this Harris poll, including leaners, Trump beats both Biden and Harris by 6 (53/47). That would sound about right, for a poll that is consistently skewed about +5 Republican compared to the average of polls. So it again suggests the race is very close, with Trump having a narrow lead that is not statistically significant. This poll was done BEFORE Sunday, when the race changed. Interestingly, since Harris separates out the field results from Friday and Saturday, Trump was beating Harris +8 (including leaners) on Friday, but only +4 on Saturday. Probably just statistical noise. But, again, this is a poll that consistently skews pretty far to the right. And it was taken the day before everything changed. So in my mind it simply confirms that it is a close and wide open race. A few other things. This poll was taken at the worst possible time for Democrats. Until Sunday, the party was in turmoil and near despair. Meanwhile, Susie and Chris did a hell of a job pulling off a fantastic RNC. With the sad exception that they could not get the lying raping felon to keep his mouth shut or stay on message. Sad! So whatever these numbers are, this is the best possible result for Trump, with a pollster that consistently shows him doing better than most polls. And you can even measure this comparing Harris poll to Harris poll. The prior Harris poll, on July 13-15 (pre-RNC) showed Trump beating Harris by 4, not 6. It showed Trump with 43 % approval and Harris with 40 % approval, a 3 point spread. That compares to the post-RNC 6 point spread (45/39) in approval ratings you cackled about. You like to cackle, don't you? This was all predictable. In 2016 Trump actually got a big but temporary convention bump in the second half of July after the RNC. It was actually the only time in 2016 he led Clinton in the national poll average, by about 1 %. In 2020 he got a very small little bump. Kind of makes sense, since people didn't really learn anything new about why they wanted to fire his ass. Which they did. Here's an interesting question: why did Trump get such a small bump from the 2024 RNC? I'm guessing because the lying raping felon could not keep his mouth shut, or stay on message. What do you think? Speaking of conventions, I think in 24 hours we have settled the question of whether Democrats will unify at their convention, or have a food fight. It is Kamala Harris's party now. Her stepdaughter, who raised money for innocent children being slaughtered in Gaza, will not be outside the convention leading protests against "Genocide Joe". I think that means Lichtman will NOT take the party contest or social unrest key away from Democrats. So in Lichtman terms, that means Democrats now have 3 keys against them, with only 3 more undecided (third party, foreign policy success, foreign policy failure). All three would have to turn against Harris for her to be predicted to lose. Possible. But probably unlikely, since Lichtman says only 2 are leaning against her now. I know you dismiss the fact that he's been right, in advance, every time since 1984. But you never liked facts much, anyway, did you? I'm sorry, poor thing. It's gonna hurt bad when your lying raping felon loses to Queen Cackle, isn't it?

Yes! And, it ties directly to things like minimum wage. The old Republican thing was "We like immigration because we can get cheap labor (often not White) in the US. And we like outsourcing because we can get cheap labor by shipping factories overseas." So we now know that didn't work out well for many Americans. At core, it's about people who want to work being able to get a decent wage and move up the ladder. That's the American Dream everyone wants. (Truth in advertising. I think global capitalism got rid of poverty and hunger for something like 1 billion people, especially in Asia. So let's not throw out the baby with the bathwater.) The political malpractice to me is that Trump somehow got away with blaming what were mostly Republican policies, that really took root when W. was President from 2001 to 2009, on Hillary Clinton and Democrats. We went from over 17 million factory jobs in America in January 2001 to 12.5 million in January 2009. We have 13 million today. How do you blame that on Bill or Hillary Clinton, or Barack Obama or Joe Biden? That was what Republicans did on their watch. But the concern is real, and broadly shared. Whether it's some Black guy whose ancestors were slaves or some Hispanic guy whose parents came from Mexico, they don't like the idea of chaos and low wages. And they are for higher minimum wages and for higher taxes on corporations and rich people. The line that resonates really well from what I read is, "Yes. My parents were immigrants. But they got in line. They did it the legal way." Whether that is actually true or not is irrelevant. It is how people feel. And the polls say these moderate swing voters are NOT against immigration, and think some extreme program to deport up to 825,000 innocent undocumented children is going too far. If Democrats want to win they have to meet these voters where they are at.

A few contradictory things. One, a lot of people are saying that it is stupid for Democrats to focus on process. People don't give a shit. What they should instead focus on is defining Kamala Harris more clearly, before Republicans define her the way they do above. I think that's true. That said, I think a certain amount of what Republicans are doing above is very helpful to Kamala. It's the don't throw me in the briar patch principle. Meaning, "Please. Don't make racist and sexist attacks on Kamala Harris. Please don't do that. Please, please, please!" It really does amazes me how stupid and - yes, racist - so many Republicans can be. And they just have no fucking clue. They attacked Rev. Warnock as being an illegitimate pastor preaching illegitimate or dangerous messages. As far as I can tell, it did three things. It offended Blacks and rallied them to make getting Warnock elected a crusade. It made White swing voters who don't want to feel they are racist uncomfortable. And it opened this huge door for Warnock to say, "See. I like puppies. I'm not a demon." So I think they are are giving Kamala the same gift. What they want America to know about Kamala is that she is a stupid Black woman who has low brain function, kind of like an ape. And she iterates by cackling. It is similar to an ape, really. Cackle. Cackle. Cackle. Stupid Black ape! Now, of course, as soon as you compare a Black woman to an ape you are a racist. So they are not saying it that bluntly. But they really are going right up to the line, even moreso than they did with Rev. Warnock. And it will have the same consequences. Tens of thousands of Black women across the country joined a virtual call last night to fundraise and strategize. So it's the same thing. They are doing a good job organizing their opposition. The flow of love and support to Kamala is organic, and would have happened anyway. But these attacks will just electrify it more. And by presenting Kamala as a Black ape who has low brain function and just cackles a lot and is too stupid to learn, they have set a low bar that she will clear very easily. When she starts talking about how she threw rapists and criminals in jail, and defended home owners from predatory lenders, and stood up for children, America will see that she does more than cackle. As a White man who doesn't know much about the Black community, this is going to be fascinating. And healing, I think. One of my tenants is a Black pastor, with a lovely wife and three beautiful children. He's told me stories about how he is STILL discriminated against in liberal California, whether it is buying a car or getting a job, because of his race. So if Kamala comes out tough on crime and talks about how she will throw your ass in jail if you rape or murder, whether your ass is Black or White, I am going to guess it will go down well with Black pastors. And White moderates. We'll see. If she talks about how some women and especially kids are vulnerable and need someone tough to stand up for them, I'm going to guess that will go down well with Black pastors and White moderates, too. This is not just energizing. It is electrifying.

I posted this on the thread on Biden in the general beer garden, but I will post it here too. This is Mark Halperin's 30 minute daily morning meeting. It's like cat nip for political whores. Halperin put his ass on the line on Friday going public about how Biden would resign as early as Sunday. Immediately he was accused of pushing "fake news". He now looks like the guy who is either the smartest in the room, or at least has the best sources. And he puts some of these people on camera and lets them speak their wisdom and experience. In that video there's a Republican described as very anti-Democrat who would love to see Kamala mocked, according to Halperin. The guy's point is that if all Kamala does is rehash "Orange Man Bad" and "sexist", it is a tired drone that people heard and rejected in 2016. I think he is right. That said, what has changed since 2016 is Trump is a convicted felon and rapist. 2 in 3 Americans think he has committed serious crimes like trying to overthrow a fair and free election. So we are about to learn how good a prosecutor is, I guess. But I think a lot of this is better left unsaid. The attacks on Biden worked mainly because voters could see him age with their own eyes. So I think it's the same here. It's probably true that when Trump is on a stage with her, he's losing. Even before he opens his mouth.

Correct. I went back and read this entire exchange. I said nothing that was factually incorrect. If I did, please quote me. You said multiple things that were factually incorrect. I quoted those. You were wrong. I'm not going to apologize for you being wrong. By the way, since you want to have at it, the idea that Michelle Obama was going to replace Biden was equally silly. It reflected the fact that you just had no idea what you were talking about. If you were even mildly aware of what is happening one inch below the surface, the way the entire Democratic Party has unified around Kamala Harris was completely predictable. And also very good for our chances of beating Trump. Keep speculating about whatever it is you want to speculate about. But please try to realize it is speculation, not fact.

I get it. What's hurting both Biden and Harris now, and will keep hurting them, is that people have had a rough time the last four years. And it is about gas prices, grocery prices, the cost of homes. I think especially for voters who are younger, and lower income, and not White, those have been issues. Mostly because the less White you are and the less old you are the more likely you are lower income and therefore more vulnerable. That explains a lot of why Biden has been hurting with Hispanics, Blacks, and young voters. I'm hoping Kamala can pull them back. On economic stuff a relatively progressive message works. Raise taxes on corporations and billionaires. Use it to lower the cost of insulin and health care. That works. The other thing that is the most bitter pill for progressives like me is a lot of working class voters are fairly culturally conservative. Which does not mean they oppose same sex marriage. It means they are worried about immigration, crime, and chaos. For those of you who are political whores like me, Mark Halperin has this group chat show daily where he brings in this amazingly bipartisan group of political hacks. Halperin co-wrote Game Change and was the first one out publicly last Friday on saying Biden would resign, as early as Sunday. He was right. His sources are amazing. So that's his 30 minute group chat today, that includes some of the top political consultants past and present in America. It is a gold mine. I'll summarize some comments, particularly leaning to what the guy who ran W.'s 2004 campaign says. Kamala has to moderate, and the left has to let her do it. I like the main idea being "strength and stability". You get the first with Trump, which is why he was winning. Biden was seen as weak, which is why he was losing. Kamala needs to balance both. Just visually, Harris and Mark Kelly standing next to each other would do the trick. Probably more than a loud mouthed (Jew, Gay, or woman, even though I love hearing Pete and Josh and Gretchen go after Trump). And Kamala should take on her party a little and surprise everyone. She has the receipts for being tough on crime. We had a 30 % murder spike in 2020 under Trump. We had a 13 % drop in murder and violent crime in 2023 thanks to Biden/Harris. She needs to talk about that. With Trump you get strength and chaos and threats to democracy. With me you get strength and the rule of law. I'll be tough on crime. Kelly has the receipts for being tough - and bipartisan - on the border. That's how they win, I think.

Actually, it's a fact Biden did NOT. I'm honestly not sure why you can't get that. This doctor is at The White House a lot, and has been since 2012. You might just as well argue that he's been seeing Biden every time he is at The White House since 2012. Since it makes just as much sense as saying he obviously must have been going to The White House eight times to see Biden. The basic idea is simple. You want to just speculate about things you don't know about, and then call them facts. I won't bother posting them, but you can easily go find attack pieces on Biden saying he has dementia in 2019, or 2020, or 2021, or 2022, or 2023, or 2024. Somehow he managed to have an effective Presidency despite the fact that he always had dementia, according to the fact free right wingers attacking him. I'm sure if I looked hard enough I could find attacks on Biden for having dementia when he was Veep. At some point it just becomes the longest diagnosis in history that has never actually been given. Anyway, I hope we can let it die. To quote Joe, it's baloney. Happily, the problem of his old age has been solved. You wanted him to quit the race. I wanted him to quit the race. And he has. Here's an interesting but irrelevant fun fact from history, regarding Konrad Adenauer: Elizabeth Warren was my choice in 2020. I will go the grave thinking, had Democrats nominated her, she would have won and been a good POTUS. And we would not have had an old Joe problem. That said, I think Biden has been a good POTUS. And I think Kamala will be a good POTUS. So I ain't complaining. When it was clear Biden would be the 2020 nominee, I read about Adenauer because I thought that might be a model. And it has been. Including how it ended. Like Biden, Adenauer was brought down as a result of a political deal, not a medical condition. As Wikipedia describes, Adenauer was brought down by other politicians on his team because he was seen as weak. And that had consequences in an election. He resigned in 1963, two years into his fourth term. He lived until 1967, into his early 90's. I'm very glad this was settled now. Apart from the issue of whether Biden could have won in November, it would have become increasingly awkward for Biden as POTUS in 2025 and beyond. And regardless of his actual health, there would have been constant political attacks about his age. That said, if Harris wins I could see Biden playing a role as elder statesman, either formally or informally. As Chris Coons just said, Biden is probably the American alive today with the most foreign policy experience, and the longest and best relationships with many foreign leaders. I think Biden is absolutely right that only he could have rebuilt and expanded NATO. Although Putin sure helped. But there I go, talking about Genocide Man again. My bad. 😉

You must be pretty slow. Have you checked yourself for cognitive decline? Because most people figured out that Biden was old on their own. Maybe you need glasses or a hearing aid? When is the lying raping felon going to step aside? 71 % of Americans wanted Biden to step aside because he is too old to serve another four years. He has. 57 % of Americans wanted Trump to step aside because he is too crooked to serve another four years. He has not. When is Trump going to step aside? That is what the majority of Americans want. Or are you saying Kamala will have to prosecute his lying raping criminal ass? Majority of Americans think both Biden and Trump are too old to serve second terms There are polls that say BOTH that Trump is too old to serve four more years, and too crooked to serve for more years. You can't cover THAT up. When is Trump going to listen to voters and step aside for the good of the nation?

You're welcome. I'm glad @unicorn and I were able to get to the facts, too. I forgot to mention. When Joe and I talked this morning, I did ask him if he had Parkinsons or was engaged in a conspiracy with his doctor to lie to the world about any medical diagnosis or cognitive condition. Here's what he said. ‘Shameful baloney’: Biden, allies dismiss calls for resignation The president’s aides and supporters insist that he is both able and determined to serve out the final months of his presidency.

Yes. Every morning, after Biden and I discuss our plans for today's genocide, I browse over his medical record. 😲 As our local representative for Genocide Man, I guess your inference is that if Biden says he has no diagnosed cognitive impairment, which he has said, it should not be believed. If Biden's doctor says Biden has no cognitive impairment, which he has, it should not be believed. If Biden's press secretary says it, it should not be believed. Or maybe that is not your inference. Regardless, Biden and his doctor have said he does NOT have a diagnosed cognitive condition. And I don't think they are lying. They have said as of this February he does not have Parkinsons. I do not believe they are lying. Nor did I think Reagan or his doctors were lying when he was checked for dementia in 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, and 1993 and was found not to have symptoms of dementia. Without pretending to read your mind, it is very clear that Genocide Man invests lots of money into sowing up conflict in democracies, and doubts about democracy, including on the internet. Which is why it is a shame that ignorant gadflys like our doctor spread false statements about Biden. I think mostly due to his intellectual laziness. Genocide Man, to his credit, is not intellectually lazy about anything. Including genocide.

I'll take that as a retraction of your totally false statement. Even though your ego as a doctor does not allow you to admit you were wrong. You stated, with zero facts to back you up, that Biden has Parkinsons. And you think you know this because he's seen a neurologist 8 times in the last several months. Your words, not mine. That's just totally wrong. You made it up. Thank you for your non-retraction retraction of a false statement. Again, completely false. This is just not true. You do understand that the way to retract false statements is NOT to make more false statements, right? You still may not actually understand that Cannard is the neurological consultant that has served at The White House since 2012. So you really don't have a clue that he has been there MANY times before November 2022, do you? Some right wing news outlet shit out one narrow fact, about the number of visits made by Cannard during a certain period of time. And you just took that right wing turd and ingested it fully, without bothering to understand the context. Either you did not read the letter from Biden's doctor I posted, or you failed to comprehend what it meant. I'm guessing the former, since you seem to just get fired up and type without bothering to understand facts. I know you are a Democrat. It's kind of a shame. Since as a fellow Democrat I don't feel like it helps for people like you to just make up shit about Biden. And you are just making it up, as you have now admitted. Not only do you just make shit up. Then you want to defend completely inaccurate statements and press the point. This is what far right cranks are doing right now. Welcome to the club! And it's not JUST far right cranks. Mike Johnson and JD Vance have widely read posts up on X right now saying Biden MUST resign because he is not fit to serve. Even though they have zero evidence of that. Just like you. Having confused people like you posting dumb and inaccurate things that you then have to retract, without admitting you were wrong, just makes it easier for Johnson and Vance to sow confusion. The issue is that a majority of Americans have been very clear and consistent in polls, which you don't bother to read or understand. They don't want either Biden or Trump to be nominees. They don't think Biden is fit to serve four more years because of his age. Just that. His age. There is no diagnosed medical condition. Even though you think there is and Biden and his doctor and press secretary are lying about it. Americans also don't think Trump is fit to serve four more years because he is a crook. And they have receipts for that. He's a felon and rapist, according to juries of his peers. You just want to confuse it all with your uninformed and unprofessional guesses.

The Emerging GOP Plan To Beat Kamala Harris I argued in one of my long-winded rants that Biden resigning would completely fuck up Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita and their cynical plan to enable Trump's authoritarianism. The two dictator enablers are now on record. And if this is the core of their plan, Biden and Team Pelosi have fucked them up good. They are in big trouble. The beauty of the campaign Wiles and LaCivita built was one simple and obvious idea: Biden is old, weak, and feeble. Arguably, they did it so well that they forced Biden to resign. Although mostly they just poked US voters to feel what they felt anyway, but a little more intensely. My moderate sister-in-law texted me today to let me know how relieved she is Biden is out, and Harris is in. She didn't need Susie Wiles or Chris LaCivita to feel that way. But if we want to give Wiles and LaCivita credit for being geniuses, they were so genius that they just completely fucked over Trump and fucked up his campaign. Donald Trump is now the oldest candidate running for President in US history. He is also a rapist. He is also a felon. He is running against a prosecutor. And he is nominee of a party that wants to talk about "coverups" and "coups". Great. Let's talk about how Republicans and their extremist SCOTUS justices want to cover up Trump's crimes against democracy. Let's talk about coups. Mike Pence knows a lot about that! The first part of their new plan that makes the most sense is based on the other thing that is simple and obvious: lots of working class people who don't own homes or stocks were hurt by the Biden/Harris economy. They can tie Harris to that and hope just saying "inflation" wins them an election. Even though inflation is now down to 3 %, and wages are raising more than inflation. Even on this part, I think Harris can slaughter Trump. He wants to cut taxes for millionaires and billionaires. Most Americans want Democrats to tax millionaires and billionaires more. Those child tax credits that cut child poverty in half for one year helped 50 million or so working class parents, grandparents, and kids deal with the costs of things. Until Republicans refused to extend them. Tax cuts for billionaires and taking away things that help working class families. Including Obamacare. How is this helping the working class? I think Harris can prosecute that case well. The second part of their plan, that Kamala engaged in a cover up about Biden's health, shows how desperate they are. How can Biden being old be a cover up, when Americans saw it with their own eyes? It's actually insulting. They said the same thing in 2020, when America fired Trump. They've been saying the same thing for years, with noting to pin it on. Other than the fact that Kamala's eyes and ears are as good as everyone else's. Meanwhile, they want to cover up the fact that Trump is an old rapist and a old felon who only lies when his lips are moving. He is so old that he is the oldest nominee for President in US history. Susie and Chris will wish they could cover that up. But they can't, any more than Biden could cover up his age. It's too soon to tell, but I think there is going to be a groundswell of support for Biden stepping aside as nominee that is broad and deep. Including among Independents. So the idea that we should pick on Joe Biden for being old, or that Kamala should have been cruel to Joe for being old, is a hard sell. And compared to what? Picking on Trump for being a rapist? Being a crook? Being a liar? Trying to overturn an election? Presiding over a 30 % spike in murder? Killing more factory jobs than he started with? Cutting taxes for billionaires? If Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita want Trump to go off about how Kamala covered up things everyone knows, great. Let's talk about what Trump wants to cover up. Starting with his criminal behavior and attacks on cops and democracy. The third part of their plan, going after Democrats for staging a coup, is almost laughable. The best part about it is that having two old rich White cynical political hacks tell Blacks and women that it is somehow undemocratic that a Black female Vice President is now the Democratic nominee is as tone deaf as Biden saying "you ain't Black" if you vote Republican. But Wiles and LaCivita will not be uttering the words. Trump will. And Trump is the rapist who hand picked the radical justices who took womens' rights away, and gave Trump immunity to do whatever rape or crime he wants. So this rapist and felon is going to lecture a prosecutor on how SHE somehow came to power in violation of some democratic principle? GIVE ME A FUCKING BREAK. I can't wait for that debate. Trump should be asked to resign, every fucking day. Granted, we have not had a national referendum on Biden's age and Trump's crookedness. But we do have polls. And big majorities of American have said for years that neither Biden not Trump are fit to serve four more years. So if Trump wants to say it is undemocratic for Biden to listen to what voters wanted and step aside, and empower his #2 rather than threaten to hang him, let Trump do it. But the only place that leads is that 57 % of voters want Trump to step aside as nominee, too. Because he is a crook. 2 in 3 voters think it is a serious crime that Trump tried to interfere in a democratic election. So if Trump wants to talk about coups and democracy, that's a winning debate for Kamala. I hope she actually asks him to step aside so she can run against someone that Americans don't view as a crook and rapist. There's some great line some speechwriter there can come up with. "America wanted two old men to step aside as nominees - one for being too old, and one for being too crooked. Joe Biden listened, and did step aside. Americans respect that. When will you, ex-President Trump? Because America fired you once, and they really don't want you back." If this is the best Trump's hatchet man and woman have, they are in big trouble.

Some interesting factoids. Way too early to tell what polls will say about Trump v. Harris once they poll her as the prospective POTUS candidate. But RCP now has aggregated all the horse race polls up to today. And Trump is leading Harris by 1.7 points, compared to 3 points ahead of Biden. That is certainly not bad news for Harris. I can't recall any other Presidential election where we knew in July a candidate would win because they were 1.7 points ahead. And we may know by the end of August whether Kamala will win. Here's the short version of Lichtman's take on this: If you want the longer version here is a one hour special podcast by Lichtman from tonight on YouTube. Now that it is a fait accompli, Lichtman has toned down his rhetoric about how forcing Biden out would be a self-inflicted disaster. What he is focusing on now is that Democrats can avoid defeat by quickly unifying around Harris. Which, I think, is a fait accompli as well. I think there are now something like like 3 or maybe 4 state delegations that have already pledged all their delegates to Kamala at the DNC. What I love about Lichtman is that his rules not only work. They also make common sense, if you want to have a flattering view of democracy. It makes common sense that swing voters will be more attracted to unity and purpose than to chaos and division. I think Democrats know this is not 1968. And the war is not in our party. The war is to beat Trump. As far as the keys go, as Lichtman says in his video Democrats move from being down 2 keys to being down 3. The incumbency key is lost. Assuming Democrats can unify around Harris, and avoid chaos, that means 3 of his 4 undetermined keys would need to fall to predict Democratic defeat after the DNC. Because he does plan to make a prediction after the DNC in August. It sounds like he leans toward two more keys falling (the foreign policy keys) and the other two not falling (third party, social disorder). So if that's 5 keys against Kamala, she wins. It does underscore how important it is that Democrats now have to unify and get this right. The main thing about Lichtman's system is it's very simple: 5 or fewer keys against you, incumbent wins. 6 or more against you, the incumbent party loses. It doesn't matter which keys. That said, I was curious. If I counted it right, there have been 5 elections since The Civil War where the incumbent party ran a candidate who was NOT the incumbent, and who only emerged after a big party food fight. 4 of those 5 lost. There were three examples where the incumbent party ran a candidate who was NOT the incumbent, and who never went through a party food fight. 2 of those 3 won. The three times an incumbent party ran someone who was not an incumbent but was from the same party and who the party was unified around were Bush in 1988 (after Reagan), Hoover in 1928 (after Coolidge) and Gore in 2000 (after Clinton). So that was 2 out of 3 wins. And Lichtman would argue that Gore won, but the election was stolen from him. So this hardly looks like a death sentence for Kamala. The five examples where a party in power ran a non-incumbent after a big party fight were Clinton in 2016, Humphrey in 1968, Stevenson in 1952, Blaine in 1884, and Hayes in 1876. Hayes actually won. So that is 4 out of 5 losers. Or 4 out of 4 losers since 1900, as Lichtman said in the video above. So this idea of welcoming chaos at the DNC that a lot of media talking heads invite, because it would be fun for them, is not a good idea if the goal is to beat Trump. Biden staying on as POTUS raises some interesting possibilities. The thing Lichtman keeps mentioning as a game changer that could turn one or both of his foreign policy keys in Democrats' favor is something like a ceasefire in Gaza with the release of hostages. In theory, Biden is now useless, because he is a lame duck. No one has any reason to listen to him. But if Harris were suddenly tied with Trump in the polls, that would make a difference.. Like if Bibi thought he can't just wait for Trump to save his ass. And if Harris does win, I actually like the idea of Joe sticking around in 2025 as a sort of war ambassador on Ukraine and Israel. He has expertise and relationships on foreign policy that are really unmatched with any living American. And it addresses the fact that he is not demented. He's just old. Biden's role still may not be completely done when Harris wins. I would love to stick a bomb up Bibi's ass and Putin's ass by forcing them to still have to deal with Biden as an elder statesman in 2025, under President Harris.

This is like an abundance of riches all of a sudden. I'm used to two things. First, feeling zero excitement about Biden, even though I feel like I should feel excited. Second, feeling like I am suffering from Democratic autism. Maybe this is cruel to Joe Biden, who I voted for and love. But I have watched so many interviews lately where I feel like, "Can't ............ you ...................... please ............................ just ............................. finish .................................... the .....................................fucking ......................................sentence." So the idea of Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg running around and dropping clever and witty shit bombs all over the Felon And His Ass Licker is thrilling. Like I want a month of THAT just to catch up from this drought that we have been in, where I had to listen to 90 minutes of Trump's lying ass and then watch JD Vance go lick it!. I had never actually heard Josh Shapiro, so I went to YouTube to find Josh. And this felt just the same. Please put him on a stage and just let this man go off on Trump. He actually kind of reminds me of Kamala. He's got this sense of joy and exuberance. And he winds it up but you know this sharp verbal shit bomb is coming. And it does. This is such a relief. Any of these White guy Guvs, or Kelly, or Whitmer, would be good. By all accounts I've heard Mark Kelly is the boring national hero type. GI Joe without the hair, and someone people deeply respect. So maybe he looks good just standing strong and silent next to Kamala. Rather than the loud mouthed Gay from DC or the loud mouthed Jew from Pennsylvania of the loud mouthed woman from Michigan. I am just happy to be able to hear what needs to be said. Please, speak! Every .................... fucking ................. day!

Pop quiz two, for bonus points. Kamala actually ran this ad in her 2020 campaign. Can you spot which one is the prosecutor, and which one if the felon?

Congratulations! You win. I'm proud of you. You win the prayers of Mike Pence. God bless you!

Some Republicans who are trying to defend the lying old raping felon they nominated for POTUS are trying to argue that Democrats have engaged in a "coup". Can you spot which of these four is a "coup"? 1. 71 % of Americans wanted Biden to step aside because they think he is too old to serve another term. 57 % of Americans wanted Trump to step aside because they think he is too crooked and dishonest to serve another term. Biden listened to voters. Republicans cover up for Trump's lies and crimes and treat him like he is invincible. Is that the coup? 2. 2 in 3 Americans think Trump may have committed serious crimes, such as inciting an insurrection and trying to overturn the results of a presidential election. Most of them do not believe Trump is fit to serve another term for this reason. Extreme right wing members of the SCOTUS, including all the ones Trump hand picked, are now saying Trump is immune from just about any legal accountability for anything he does as POTUS. Even Bush 45's AG, Alberto Gonzalez, who pushed the powers of W. to the limits during the Iraq War, says he thinks SCOTUS went too far. Is that the coup? 3. At the RNC, Trump's granddaughter argued that you can judge a POTUS by how he treats the people around him. Joe Biden chose Kamala Harris to be his Vice President. 81 million Americans ratified her choice as #2 in 2020, as did 14 million Democratic primary voters in 2024. Now based on the concerns of 2 in 3 Democrats about his ability to serve a second term he has uplifted her to take his place and carry the torch. Which was obviously hard for him given his own political ambitions. Is that the coup? 4. Donald Trump lost the 2020 election and demanded his Vice President overturn a free and fair election. When Pence refused, Trump sent his mob to The Capitol where they beat the shit out of the cops they love and screamed, "Hang Mike Pence." Is that the coup?

Since you want to get into it, let's go. That's just wrong. You are completely wrong. Why are you saying things that are not true? Especially on a day when every Democrat feels like Joe Biden is a patriot who just made a big sacrifice for his party and country. Why are you doing this? Stop saying things that are just not true. Seriously, are you suffering from cognitive decline? If you could understand the plain meaning of what Biden has said, which I posted above, you would not be saying such stupid and factually incorrect things. It strikes me that you may actually be bad at discovering simple facts, for whatever reason. So let's just have a very brief and simple summary of facts, okay? FACT 1: Biden says he has been seen by a neurologist three times in three years, as part of an annual physical. Biden has not seen a neurologist 8 times over the last several months. You just made that up. FACT 2: The neurologist who sees Biden has been the neurology consultant at the White House since 2012, and sees many others as well. This is why Dr. Cannard has been at the White House regularly lately. As well as regularly for years. Some right wing source, I think Fox but maybe not, jumped on something about eight visits to The White House in some recent period of time. They apparently did not bother to check that he visits the White House regularly going back years, since he is their neurology consultant. FACT 3: The President was specifically checked for Parksinsons in February 2024, and cleared. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Letter7.8.24.pdf That's the letter from Biden's doctor. So to follow your claim, you'd have to believe that - at the very least - Biden, his doctor, and his Press Secretary are all lying to the public, and Biden has Parkinsons because you say so. Again, any evidence whatsoever?

I know you can't help posting without adding an insulting tone. I get that. The reason I put "appears" in quotes was to quote you. You are alleging, with absolutely no facts to back you up, that Biden lied to the American people about a diagnosis he says he does not have, and then "appears" to have instructed his Press Secretary to do the same. Again, do you have even the tiniest shred of fact to back up anything you are saying? You also said, with no facts to back you up up, that Reagan had dementia when he was POTUS. I'll repeat. His own doctor who treated him for Alzheimers said when he died that his condition would not have impaired him 15 years ago, when he was POTUS. Since you appear to be unconstrained by facts, I guess what the doctor who actually treated him said doesn't matter to you. . Every time I have asked you to support things you say with facts, you simply make more statements with no facts to back them up. Right now, you sound like a far right crank who says Biden has some disease which he does not. If he does have Parkinsons, provide some evidence. If you have no facts, you are a doctor who doesn't know what he is talking about. It's not a great look.

Van Jones 🧡 Joe Biden

The deep lack of respect for the intelligence of Americans, and Black women in particular, shines through. Kamala Harris did not cover up the fact that Joe Biden is old. It is insulting to Americans to suggest they did not figure that out on their own. They did. Why do you cover up that Trump is a crook? Why do you cover up that Trump is a rapist? Why do you deny his 30 % murder spike? Why won't you guys work for the compromise ideas that got border crossings down 40 % since Trump killed the bill conservative Republicans spent a year putting together? It is insulting to Americans, and especially the 57 % who want Trump to step aside, to refuse to listen to them and to instead just lie to them. When will Trump stop being a liar and a crook? When will he listen to America, rather than lie to America? You are just being insulting and dumb. What a shock! GOP is pissed What weak, feeble losers! What losers! How weak! How pathetic! These weak feeble losers did not realize that Joe Biden is a patriot? These weak feeble losers did not realize that they could spend endless amounts of dirty money from billionaire and millionaire donors who want their fat cat tax cuts, all to trash Joe Biden, and Biden would not outsmart them? How weak! How feeble! What pathetic losers! Why do you like these losers? These losers lost in 2018. These losers lost in 2020. These losers lost in 2022. These losers lost in 2023. And now these losers will lose in 2024. Seriously, you fucking stupid clown. Seriously. Did Susie Wilies really not see this coming? Pelosi and Biden are not demented. They are pros in their 80's who are sly, smart, and cunning. You really have such shit for brains that you did not see how easy your whole rotten anti-democratic plan made it to pull the rug out from under you? You idiots deserve to lose. Now all the racist and sexist attacks will start. "Kamala Harris is illegitimate". Where have we heard that before? How weak!

In other words, you want to pump up racism and ignore 57 % of Americans who see Trump for the crook that he is and want him to drop out. I guess at least Trump is honest about wanting to be a dictator. Good luck with that, clown! Rick Wilson:

Even for a lying losing low IQ felon like Trump, you would think they could do better than this. Trump Campaign: "Kamala Was In On It, She Covered Up Joe's Obvious Mental Decline" First off, where is Joe's dementia diagnosis? There is none. What we do know is that Trump was judged by a jury of his peers to be a crook. Several times. He is the kind of raping felon Kamala Harris has thrown behind bars many times. Joe Biden is a patriot who loves his nation and put love of country above his political ambition. He listened. 57 % of Americans want Donald Trump to step aside, too. Will Trump listen? Or is this always about his lies and his own ambition? (Dumb question, I know.) Kamala Harrfis has not covered up the fact that Joe Biden is old. America figured that out just fine on her own. Kamala Harris will not cover up the fact that Donald Trump is an old rapist lying felon. She will not cover up his rape. She will not cover up the fact that he is a crook. She will not cover up his lies. She will not cover up his desire to kill Obamacare. She will not cover up his billionaire tax cuts. She will not cover up his 30 % murder spike. She will not cover up that he killed factory jobs in America. She will not cover up that he killed a compromise immigration bill, after which Biden took unilateral action and border crossing went down 40 %. When will Republicans stop covering up for old gross lying rapist felon Donald Trump? When well they address the Trump rapes? When will they address the Trump attacks on democracy and free elections? When will they address the Trump crimes? When will they apologize for his mob beating cops viciously? When will they for once tell the fucking truth to Americans about the crook they nominated for President?

When are you calling for your lying raping felon to get out of America's way? 57 % of Americans want Trump to step aside. 2 in 3 Americans are appalled at all the criminal acts that make Trump a crook. The porn star hush money conviction was only a start. Biden has listened to America. He has stepped aside. Trump is next. When will Trump stop lying to America, and start listening to America? And what do you personally have against Black women who exude joy, intelligence, truth, hope, and adherence to the law?