stevenkesslar

Oh, my genocide defending and lying friend Let's face facts, not Genocide Man's lies and propaganda: Putin issues nuclear warning to the West over strikes on Russia from Ukraine Putin could of course "win" the war with Ukraine by nuking it. But that would just hasten the collapse of the rotten and failing Russian Federation, and Putin knows it. Not to mention turn Moscow into a pile of radioactive waste. So all those article you cited are about the restraint practiced by the US, the EU, NATO, and leaders around the world who despise Genocide Man but resist the war and genocide Putin started. Putin's economy is weak, and fueled by turning hundreds of thousands of Russians into meat. It's an unsustainable Genocide Economy and Putin knows it. What must sicken Genocide Man to death is that his every attempt to weaken democracy only makes it stronger. People in the US are voting in record numbers. And the vast majority are on the side of defending Ukraine from Putin's genocide. All Putin's lies and propaganda and murder can't change that. Once Trump loses - again - Murderous Vlad's best chance for subverting democracy dies. Poor sick weak old Genocide Man! What will happen when poor sick weak old Genocide Man does? Dunno. But I sure hope poor sick weak old Genocide Man lives for a long time. Murderous Vlad excels at killing Russians and turning the Russian economy into a stagnant mess that requires killing Russians. The world can just sit back and let Genocide Man further destabilize and destroy his own rotten nation. I pray for the Russians who want something better than death or stagnation! Genocide Man's Russian-devouring and Ukrainian-killing economy doesn't even match up to one US state. Instead of producing energy, Russia thrives on the killing of Russians and the global distribution of disgust about Putin. Woo hoo! Poor losers! All you can do is lose and whine and delude yourselves that your collapsing Genocide Economy is actually strong. You have organized the whole world against you. Even Master Xi will cut his murderous pit bull loose when the time comes. Ever wonder why the world will rejoice when the Russian Federation collapses? (Granted, India will have to find a new arms supplier, and Master Xi will find cheap gas elsewhere.)

And yet another great Trump investment opportunity. How can one man have so much to contribute to America? God has never created a better and smarter person than DJT, and most likely will never again. Or you can watch the same video here. TikTok does not seem to embed as easily as YouTube. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=532136342551850

Take that up with him. He keeps arguing that people say that every four years. We never had a Black man before. We never had Twitter before. We never had women voting before! But in his mind the fundamentals never change. He does get it right every time, pretty much. He did predict Gore in 2000. And nay sayers dispute whether he is really predicting the popular vote or the electoral college. Either way, his system is way more complex and correct than a "clerk" like Silver simply aggregating polls and coming up with models that aren't really very good at all. In an election like 2000 where it came down to a very small number of votes in one state, I don't think it takes much away from the logic of Lichtman's keys even if you assume he was wrong about Gore. Same with 2016. That was not as close because it involved three states, not one. And Lichtman did predict Trump. But 2024 may be on the edge of a knife again. So it definitely makes it harder to predict.

I watched Allan Lichtman's podcast a lot in the lead up to his prediction that Harris will win. The person he despises is Nate Silver, who he refers to as a "clerk". They got in some public spat years ago because Silver trashed Lichtman's system. The point Lichtman makes is he puts his ass on the line every four years and actually makes a prediction. Like now he says Harris will win. Silver covers his ass by saying there is a 75 % chance Hillary Dumpty will win. So when Donald Dumpty wins instead, Silver says, "See. Told ya so. Trump had a 25 % chance of winning." The thing I like most about Lichtman, and what makes him unpopular with clerks like Silver, is he actually has sound ideas about why people will win, based on his keys. People like Silver create the impression that what really matters is the drip drip drip of polls.

Nice word. Like conducting a genocide in Ukraine has nothing to do with "imposing" your views on others. I tend to be overly optimistic about democracy. You are a cynic who comes here to rationalize murderous authoritarianism and attack ideas you know nothing about. You're entitled to your Russian pro-Genocide Man opinion. So go ahead and call me a parasite on democracy. It's a free country. Ours, I mean. Not yours. Genocide Man is a parasite on democracy. He will kill every Russian before he allows democracy in your failed state.

Geez Louise! And all this time I was wrong. I thought if you crossed Murderous Vlad you ended up with a bullet in your head. But I gotta admit. I was wrong. It is a well known fact that Putin is a huge Kamala Harris supporter. After all, he said so! And yet @Moses is trashing Harris. And he is apparently still alive. WTF? Maybe Genocide Man is sweeter than I thought. No reason to think he eats dogs and cats. Anyhoo,@Moses, not to worry. Trump is anti-union, Harris is pro-union. That's why the vast majority of union members support her, 57 to 41..

Did anyone ever tell you how adorable you are when you're angry, dear Sis?

Yup. No one would ever associate Trump businesses with a lack of profit. Who knew? 😉 See @Suckrates I can do short posts. 🤪

So here's an interesting tidbit buried on Page 15 of a very long post-debate YouGov poll. 53 % of voters say they would not consider voting for Trump. 47 % say they will consider voting for Trump. 48 % of voters say they would not consider voting for Harris. 52 % say they will consider voting for Harris. If voters literally had to choose between only two names, Trump or Harris, that pretty much assures Harris will win. Unless voters are lying, or change their mind. Trump won in 2016 in large part thanks to all those third party voters, who lowered the ceiling so Trump could win with 47 % of the vote. In the same poll, here is what YouGov says the horse race looks like: 46 % Harris. 45 % Trump. 6 % don't know. 2 % other. 1 % won't vote. So let's take these voters at their word. On the days this poll was conducted, Sept.10-11, Harris was leading Trump 1.5 % in the RCP average and 2.4 % in the 538 average. So this poll is not an outlier. If anything, it slightly underestimates the level of support for Harris. So I am assuming that if 53 % of voters in this poll say they would not consider voting for Trump, that is reliable. So the math is simple. Of the 6 % who are undecided, Trump can get no more than 2 % of them, meaning he wins 47 % of the vote. That was his ceiling in 2016. Meanwhile, the other 4 % likely goes to Harris, taking her to 50 % of the vote. That's slightly less than Biden won in 2020. Again, people can change their mind. But if 53 % of voters have ruled out Trump as an option, that pretty much leaves Harris as the other option. When Harris was leading by 2.4 % in the 538 polls on Sept. 11, she was carrying Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. When Harris was leading by 1.5 % in the RCP average on Sept. 11, she was carrying Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Pennsylvania was literally tied. All of these states polls were within the margin of error. But my point is that if Harris wins nationally by 4 %, all the RCP and 538 averages suggest she would carry all seven swing states, including North Carolina. The biggest problem with this theory is that there are all these marginal voters who never or rarely vote in midterms but do turn out for Trump. So maybe the idea that 53 % of the actual electorate will not even consider voting for Trump is just wrong. But given that he got 47 % of the vote in 2016 and 48 % in 2020, it sounds pretty right to me. And I would bet money that turnout in 2024 will favor Democrats, compared to 2020. In 2020 Democrats had weak face to face organizing thanks to COVID, whereas Trump was the incumbent with a well funded turnout army. In 2024 Harris has loads of money and a massive turnout army. Trump is weak in everything, including turnout. They farmed turnout out to outside groups, which I would bet is going to prove to be a mistake. So what happened with turnout in 2020 has to be viewed as a best case scenario for Trump that is unlikely to repeat in 2024. I'll throw in one other fascinating Mark Halperin video about a focus group he conducted that I think helps explain why Harris will win. The point of that focus group to Halperin is that anybody who is willing to listen should be able to understand why a core of voters are undecided between Trump and Harris. Because they believe both fall short. The parts of that video that actually involved focus group members runs from 21:00 to 40:00. It's worth a listen. In the final segment all eight voters are asked what is the biggest worry they have if each candidate is elected, expressed in a few words. These two videos last only about one minute each. I will cite verbatim what they say their biggest worries about Harris and Trump are. Harris: 1) inexperience, 2) far left policies, 3) unknown policies 4) too liberal 5) too establishment 6) unproven 7) far left 8 ) unserious Trump: 1) his ego 2) his ego on steroids 3) division 4) undisciplined 5) narcissism 6) no focus chaos 7) 2020 craziness and8) lacks focus As Halperin noted, all the Trump worries are about his personality. Which won't change. The Harris concerns are all about policy. She won't be less liberal. But she is about as liberal as Obama, who was elected in 2008 and 2012. She is getting better known. As that happens, so far her favorable ratings are going up. And she is now net positive favorable in both the TCP and 538 averages. While most polls say Trump is more trusted on the economy, that is slowly shifting. A new FT poll shows Harris is more trusted on the economy over Trump, 44/42. There are lots of things Harris can do to make herself better known to voters, and assuage their concerns about her policies. While she is mostly playing it safe and being vague, the polls show evidence she is gradually getting to be better known. There is little Trump can do to change his personality. The polls indicate he is making it hard, even for voters who prefer his policies, to vote for such a narcissistic and chaotic asshole.

Except he lost in 2020 because most voters don't trust him, and think he is a fool and President Chaos. That did not work in his favor. Not did it work in the favor of all the cops his supporters beat the shit out of during their Trump-directed attack on democracy. Trump excels at two things: branding, and losing. He has branded himself a loser.

Vance: Dems need to ‘cut this crap out’ after possible assassination attempt “I’d say that’s pretty strong evidence that the left needs to tone down the rhetoric and needs to cut this crap out,” the Ohio senator said. More complete and total partisan bullshit. More pathetic lies that insult the intelligence of average Americans. I think this second assassination attempt may actually help drive Trump's loss. There are three clear facts. First, Trump is a weak and failed leader when it comes to Ukraine. He leans into Putin, who flatters him and has rich friends who help Trump and his family financially. Two, Trump's wannabe assassin was very clear that Trump is weak and a failure when it comes to Ukraine. And he thought Trump deserved to die for that reason. Three, Trump and Vance are now lying the exact same way Trump lied about losing the 2020 election. The words coming out of their sick lying mouths are outrageously and obviously completely false. They treat Americans like we are stupid idiots. Which only shows us what dumb fucks they are. Americans are divided about whether or not we should send more weapons to Ukraine. But we are not divided about the basic question of whether we should stick with NATO, defend democracy abroad, and stop Genocide Man. Poll after poll shows most Americans side with Ukrainians, not Genocide Man, even though we split hairs over specific policy proposals. So what this highlights is simple: Trump is weak, and a failure, and the kind of dipshit that is prone to being buddies with dictators who flatter him. Harris proved that in their debate, without having to wave a gun. But some nut with a gun does see Trump as weak, a failure, and chaotic, and a loser. He is right. He is not right to want to kill Trump. But he is right that Trump is weak, and a failure, and chaotic. And he will throw Ukraine and democracy under the bus in a heartbeat. All Trump and Vance are proving now, yet again, is they are dumb fucks who insult us with obvious lies. The 50 % of Trump voters who buy any bullshit he says will buy this. But Independent voters will be insulted. As they should be.

To your point about how this shifted "immigrants eating dogs and cats" out of the headlines, I'd argue this is Trump once again stupidly stepping over his own headlines. What a dumb fuck! He must be suffering from RFK Jr.'s brain worm. Or Tulsi Gabbards transparently self-serving dumb fuck thinking. As if we are all stupid! We know Trump is weak. We know he caves to Putin's flattery and favors. We know his losing, failing grift stock DJT only exists thanks to the favors and funding of Murderous Vlad's rich pals. We know that Trump has a very complicated and thoughtful plan on Russia and Ukraine: 1) weakness, 2) weakness, and 3) weakness. So some nut tries to kill Trump because he is a nut, and Trump is weak on Ukraine. And then Trump blames it on Biden and Harris? WTF? This would be laughable if it were not so tragic. Genocide Man wantonly slaughters women and children in Ukraine in constant acts of terror. That is where my sympathy lies. Not with the weak dumb fuck who Genocide Man controls with flattery and favors. Trump certainly does not deserve to be killed. Thank God he is safe. But he also certainly does not deserve to be President again. Thank God he is failing.

Be careful what you wish for. 😲 But I'll give you six who maybe know how to do the job. Problem is, I think they are all dead. Three of Six Shooters of JFK Had Ties to CIA I'm still working the JFK conspiracy theme. The thing that is interesting about both Trump assassination attempts is that they pass the smell test in this sense: this is what it looks like when some lone nut tries to kill a President. There are not 5000 or so amazing coincidences and "fingerprints of intelligence everywhere you look," to use former Sen. Richard Schweiker's phrase, describing Oswald's remarkable number of connections to the CIA, FBI, and military intelligence. These two guys who tried to kill Trump do seem like lone nuts. That said, there are some curious things about this one. There is a guy disgruntled about how Trump isn't into a forever war in Ukraine. And how did he know Trump would be on the golf course? Mostly, though, it seems like this was all put together with Elmer's Glue. I almost feel sorry for Trump. After two assassination attempts, which more or less invites copycats seeking attention, they will have him encased in bubble wrap. Or ceramic tiles, maybe. 😉

I think you are right. Three strikes and he is out. People are tired of it. Trump will lose. If assassinations attempts were going to win an election, I think we would have known after Pennsylvania. What helped Trump the most at that time was that Biden looked old and tired. Now Trump looks old and tired. What will win Trump the election, in theory, is inflation and immigration. But not if his argument is that immigrants are eating dogs and cats. If anything, people who would naturally feel sympathetic to any politician who some nut tries to kill - Steve Scalise comes to mind - probably have less sympathy for Trump. Just because we have had to put up with his hate, bullshit, and lies for a decade. I'm glad he's safe. But I don't feel sympathy for him. If the topic is who will win, you know who my heartthrob is and always has been: Allan Lichtman. And he's now out and proud. He says Kamala Harris is going to win. If you asked him, he'd say assassination attempts have no impact on his keys. I'll add one more thing, just because I happened to read it today. The group whose net worth has gone up the most under Biden is ................. wait for it ........................ young voters. The same young voters who everyone is worried may not vote, or may vote for Trump because of inflation or rent or interest rates. Like their net worth doubled. For people under 35, net worth went from $16,000 in 2019 to $39,000 in 2022. That's mostly stock market gains. For people 55 to 64, net worth went up 30 %, over $100,000. I think that factors into both 2022 and 2024. As compared to 2010, for example. If we were in a Great Recession and unemployment were 10 % and there were mass foreclosures and people's stock and home equity were wiped out, voters probably would throw the bums out like in 2008 and 2010. People are actually doing well. Inflation may be annoying. And for working class and poor people who don't own stocks or homes, it's a real burden - which Harris clearly gets. But I think this is what people care about, and why she will win. Whether Trump has kooks going after him with assault weapons that should be banned is not America's top priority.

I'll take the bait. No charts, but here goes: 1. Sounds like the Secret Service did their job this time. Whereas the Pennsylvania very close call does sound like they fucked up. I don't get how sharp shooters on other nearby roofs, who killed the guy, did not see a guy with a gun on the roof. 2. That said, Trump is reaping what he sows. He speaks the language of political violence, and then denies it. Republicans don't want to do a thing about assault weapons, which were two potential assassins' weapons of choice. I'm not saying this is Trump's fault. But it's hard to have much sympathy for a guy who has been preaching the language of violence and stirring the pot of extremism for a decade. 3. Nothing I've heard so far sounds like a well thought out conspiracy. We know nothing about Florida Dude, yet. But these seem like random kooks. Now, that said, I'll talk about what would be weird. What would be truly weird is if the nut in Pennsylvania turned out to have a best friend who was a Russian immigrant who was anti-Communist, and a former Nazi, and a CIA asset. And it would be truly weird if that Russian immigrant, who was close friends with a Presidential assassin, turned out to also be friends with the Director of the CIA, who within a decade or so would be POTUS. That would be truly weird. For those of you who have gone deep down the JFK conspiracy rabbit hole, I am of course referring to George de Mohrenschildt, the Russian immigrant and CIA asset who was buddies with Oswald in 1963. Then later George wrote a personal letter to another George, H.W. Bush, an old pal and fellow member of the Dallas Petroleum Club, when he was head of the CIA. Small world. Shortly after this, on the day an investigator from the House Committee on Assassinations knocked on his door, poor George ended up dead of a bullet in the head, apparently a suicide That happened a lot back then when you happened to know something about a possible conspiracy. The part I find most interesting is just very weird conincidences. The Texas School Book Depository was owned by right wing Texas oil baron DH Byrd. The DalTex building, the other ideal building for a rifleman, was where Abraham Zapruder worked, who was also a right wing Russian emigre and Dallas Petroleum Club member. Zapruder's co-worker became de Mohrenschild's second wife. Byrd founded the Civil Air Patrol, which Lee Harvey Oswald was a member of as a teenager. Maybe it was a coincidence that Oswald just happened to get a job at Byrd's building before the motorcade route was known. Then again, the woman who arranged it, Ruth Paine, has a Dad and sister that worked for the CIA. Just a coincidence, no doubt I could go on forever. My point is that Trump and MAGA make weird bedfellows in all this. The theology of Trumpism is that there is this Deep State of dark forces that starts endless wars, like Ukraine. And will do whatever it takes to stop guys like Trump from draining the swamp. Oliver Stone's version of JFK is actually similar in broad outlines. With a Deep State of CIA assets who assassinate leaders all over the world, and rich right wingers and oil men and military hawks who are happy to fund them. Add Allen Dulles and J Edgar Hoover, mix, and stir. Presto! You have a conspiracy. I don't think the CIA or Secret Service is out to get Trump. I think the guys are kooks. But Republicans helped create this environment, and won't do a thing about assault weapons.

It is not clear that it is Putin's job and right to commit genocide in Ukraine. But that is what he is doing. He is engaging in mass slaughter of women and children. He is killing hundreds of thousands of his own people. Your weak and failing wannabe economy and wannabe democracy is even weaker than before. Anyone who tries to fire Genocide Man ends up with a bullet in their head. People all over the world despise Russia and want it to fail for all these reasons. Weak. Failed. Loser. So if Putin wants to start a war with NATO for defending Ukraine from Putin's genocide and attack on sovereignty, he is even more of a suicidal dumb fuck than we thought. Actually, I am far more afraid of the US acting like the US. The US invasion of Iraq was a predictable disaster. The US fucked it up in Viet Nam. Even Afghanistan ended badly. I put that in a different category because Afghanistan was self defense after 9/11. Didn't make a difference. If there is a lesson from Afghanistan it's that we should have had far more limited aims: take out the bad guys that attacked us, leave, and run counterterrorism operations. All of the above suggests Russia is doomed in Ukraine. It's pretty simple. Ukrainians hate Putin, hate Russians, and will happily kill every Russian they can from now to forever. They will fight you forever. Even if there is some kind of fragile peace they will hate you and fight you forever. That is what dumb fuck Putin did. You, @Moses, have written many words defending your dumb fuck leader's genocide. You've claimed that Ukrainians like what Genocide Man is doing. You have claimed that stealing their children and killing their women is what Ukraine wants. So now Putin's surrogates are being very open about their genocidal intentions. If Putin is allowed to take what he want, he will engage in mass murder. If Ukraine resists he is clearly stating he will kill them all. Genocide Man is for one thing: genocide. That is why the world hates Russia and can't wait for Russia to fail. We know what happened when the Soviet Union failed. Your weak dumb fuck leader hates it, and has done every dumb fuck thing he could think of to reverse the failure of the Soviet Union - to no avail. All he does is build hate for Russia, and resistance. The dumb fuck's genocide is exactly what is laying the groundwork for the collapse of the Russian Federation. When that happens, say goodbye to all the Ukrainians who hate you for this genocide. Say goodbye to Chechnya, too, which is small enough and close enough that Vlad's genocide and terror did work. For now. Putin's legacy will be genocide and failure. Couldn't happen to a nicer monster.

Russia’s Medvedev threatens to turn Kyiv into ‘giant melted spot’ I'll give our dumb fuck mass murdering autocrat Vlad credit for one thing. He is at least smart enough to have a surrogate make his direct genocidal threats for him. I think the problem with being a dumb fuck who can wipe out opposition with a bullet or poison is that he really has a dumb fuck's understanding of democracy. I think he thinks he can say he is rooting for Kamala, while his henchmen say, "Oh, we'll just do mass murder in Ukraine." What he's doing is driving even people like Dick Cheney and Liz Cheney to Harris. And the dumb fuck genocidal monster doesn't even understand it. People in Russia would love to fire their dumb fuck leader if they had a real democracy. But all the dumb fuck can do is hope to screw up our democracy instead. And before genocide cheerleader @Moses pipes up to defend mass murder, the US nuked Japan almost a century ago. It ended a war that Japan started by attacking the US, just like Genocide Man attacked Ukraine. In order to show how much he loves them, of course. That's just how much of a mass murdering dumb fuck Genocide Man is.

I'm pretty sure Tim Scott doesn't see himself supporting a racist agenda for America. If The Big Switch had happened before Trump chose JD Vance, I wonder if he would have picked Scott (or Haley) instead. I'm glad he didn't. Vance will help Trump lose. And, until proven wrong, I will view Scott as a "better angels" path for Republicans to follow after Trump face plants. For sure, everyone inside the GOP says that there will be a battle royal among Republicans once Trump is finally out of the way. CNN exit polls say Trump got 12 % of the Black vote and about one third of the Latino vote in 2020. This is the mystery of Trump 2024. If he only hammered on how the cost of living and inflation were lower when he was POTUS, way more than 12 % of Blacks would agree with him. If he only hammered on how Biden and Harris let the border get out of control, way more than one third of Latinos would agree with him. So why is he doing racist code, like suggesting Harris became Black? Smart people like Ruy Teixeira think differently. But my guess is that, in the end, Harris will get about the same share of Black and Latino voters as Biden did in 2020. If that happens, she will win. I think all the racism stuff actually demotivates a lot of Republicans. I think we know the Proud Boys and KKK types will vote for Trump, anyway. So I think what happens is that suburban women in Georgia who are right of center get turned off. They vote for Warnock and feel good about it. They may vote for Harris, or they just may not vote. Meanwhile, this just lights a fire under Kamala's organizing and fundraising among left of center people of color. That's the other thing that matters bigly. Some recent polls say Democrats are now even MORE motivated to vote than Republicans. Which is a big change from three months ago. So I think every time Trump says or does something explicitly or implicitly racist, it probably helps Democratic turnout. And hurts Republican turnout among the moderates who like Trump's right-of-center policies but don't like the racism and narcissism and democracy-killing lies. Why is Trump being such a racist fool? Who knows. I'm not a doctor or a shrink. But the best answer might be age, just like it was for Biden. I always remember some Black author who said back in 2016 that by electing Trump America was basically resurrecting 1980's style racism (Central Park Five) without really intending to. I think that's a fair statement. With emphasis on the fact that many Trump voters really don't want 80's style racism with their tax cuts. Trump may just be old and stuck. In 2016 he was clearly able to let Chris Christie whip him into shape for the debates with Clinton, where he focused on winning issues like NAFTA. Now he does dogs, cats, and Harris turned Black one day. He's just an old flabby fool with a 20th century view of race. Kamala embodies a new way forward as a strong and winning multi-racial capitalist democracy. As a tangential point, a new poll shows Will Rollins up 6 points in his US House race against Ken Calvert. He's the LGBTQ prosecutor who ran against Calvert in 2022 and narrowly lost. In other words, he's Gay Kamala. I just gave my fourth $100 donation to him. Here's his website. This district was redistricted in 2020 to include Palm Springs. So it moved from solid red to toss up. I read that 2000 more Democrats have registered since 2022, and GOP registration is actually down. Rollins lost by about 10,000 votes in 2022. So turnout - the combination of highly motivated Democrats and Republicans who decide it's not worth voting - could be fatal to Calvert in 2024.

That's true. But there are very fine people on both sides, as well. And in New York, they are eating the bears. My people are calling me and telling me they saw it on TV. They are eating the bears.

Interesting information in this new YouGov poll: Kamala Harris' debate win hasn't yet won her new voters, but more like her and see her as qualified In this poll, she was winning by 1 point (aka a statistical tie) before the election, and she is still winning by one point after. No change. She is slightly ahead 46/45 in this poll, with 6 % undecided. 55 % say she won the debate versus 25 % for Trump. Many Trump supporters said they were dissatisfied with his performance. Below the surface, things shifted. There was a 5 % decrease in voters who think Harris is unqualified and a 3 % rise in voters saying she is qualified. A 4 % increase in voters who think Harris says what she means, and a 1 % increase in voters who think Harris says what she thinks voters want to hear. So it firmed up impressions. In a mostly positive way for Harris and in a mostly negative way for Trump. Whether those are the impressions held by the narrow slice of undecided voters is a while different question. But something like 1 in 4 Americans say they need to get to know Kamala Harris better. This helped. The impressions for people who wanted to know more seemed mostly favorable. This poll notes that Biden's poll numbers did not change within 24 hours of his horrific debate, either. Which is one reason his staff said, "No real problem here." As is noted in the article, the damage gradually expanded as the days and weeks went on. In part, of course, because SENILE BIDEN and the battle royal in the Democratic Party blacked out everything else for weeks. But I think its far to say this adds to Harris's upward moment. At the very least, it did not help Trump generate upward momentum. If he won't debate again, my guess is it's probably because he is worried it could lead to a real downward spiral like Biden. Poor old dictator wannabe! In this poll, 50 % of viewers say the moderators were fair to both candidates, while 35 % said they were unfair to Trump and 6 % said they were unfair to Harris. 73 % of Trump supporters said they were unfair to Trump. What a shocker! Here's the most interesting part: If there were an objective way to measure the racism of Trump supporters, I'd bet there would be similar results. It's absurd to me to argue Black Trump supporters are racist. When we get to the Charlottesville crowd with their KKK and Nazi flags, it's pretty easy to argue they are racist as hell. My point is this all dooms Trumpism to be a failed and minority movement to me. Whites who feel strong racial animus and Blacks like Tim Scott really do have a hard time being under the same tent together. The proof of the pudding to me is that the people who gave us the Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating were mostly White men. I think it was a subset of Trump Republicans who turned lots of other Republicans off. There is nothing in this poll, on the other hand, that suggests Harris could not be the leader of a majority movement in America. There is a theory that Harris doesn't need to really persuade any more voters. She just needs to get her coalition out to vote. So that could be an impact as well. The debate gave anyone thinking of voting for Harris another reason to vote for her, as well as donate or volunteer. It had to be demotivating for Trump supporters. In that sense, it almost certainly helped Harris, even if it did not change the mind of one undecided voters. But it sounds like it did change minds for her, albeit in a slow shifting of tides kind of way.

It's your lucky day. You are going to get a long verbose response. Lucky you! Reading this struck a nerve. It's my thread, so I can be verbose if I want to, I figure. As I mentioned in some other post, Mark Halperin really got me thinking with something he said on his 2Way a little while ago. He said if Trump wins, about half the country will be in shock. It will shake the foundations of their belief system about the country they live in. Because they really have no idea what motivates Trump voters. That's not his exact wording. But it is close enough. It's interesting that he sees that as a sort of one way street. He said Trump supporters would be disappointed, and maybe angry, if they lose. But they would not be shocked in the same way. My take away, which is NOT what he said, is that makes me the half that are the elitist pigs who are actually too ignorant or arrogant to understand the other half. One of the things I like about his 2Way thing, which actually undermines his claim, is that it helps me to understand Trump voters. If he's right, why would Harris supporters even bother to listen to Trump supporters? I'll add that there are as many reasons people support Trump as there are Trump voters. But I'll tick off two big reasons people support Trump that sound incredibly normal to me. One. It's the economy, stupid. It is an objective fact that Trump happened to govern during a time of relative economic calm and prosperity - if you stop the clock at Feb. 2020. I always got that during that period. Many Trump supporters put up with Trump because it was about them, not Trump. If the Trump economy is good, they are good. Same basic idea as people could give a shit if Clinton lied about a blow job, as long as the stock market and their savings account grew. Two. We hate the dude, but we love his policies. This is an interesting one that historians will fight over forever, I think. It is true that a lot of right of center voters who don't like Trump, and specifically are turned off by J6 bullshit and anarchy, will vote for him anyway. Because they like his right of center policies. And they feel the hysteria about how he is a threat to democracy is overblown. I could agree with them, if "lawfare" only meant going after Trump for being a shady business tycoon in New York. It's not like having a crooked family business is a new thing. When you add stealing an election and The Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating, I beg to differ. No one ever has tried to steal an election like that before in the US. The debate about history will be whether the realignment Trump has caused in the Republican Party necessitated his authoritarian and faux working class populist schtick. Or whether it was just an accident of history that he got there first. My guess is the latter. But I think the Republican Party may stay the way it is for a while, as the heartland conservative party. Either way, I think what we are seeing play out is Trump is leading his party down a historical dead end. Maybe this is my own bias. But the GOP used to be the party of the Chamber Of Commerce. The Chamber of Commerce will ALWAYS be a powerful thing. Now it is the self-described truck driver party. It tends to attract the losers of history, who lost when their factory jobs went overseas. I think of Trumpism as, in part, a failed peasant's revolt led by a charlatan. Electing Trump in 2016 and watching him try to kill Obamacare and shower tax cuts on the billionaires and corporations who backed him did not really improve their lives. Again, maybe this is my bias, but I think the Democratic Party will eventually figure this out. As I said on another post, it's a little bit of a problem to me that a vert smart woman (lawyer Karen Dunn) who graduated from the best schools (Yale and Brown) and debate coached Obama, and Clinton, and Harris also has as her clients Apple, Uber, Oracle, and Jeff Bezos. That is, by definition, a party of winners. It also confirms the Trumpian feeling of this Deep State or elitist cabal that is coastal and liberal and just doesn't get us. It explains why Democrats who rely on these corporate winners to fund their campaigns have to be careful about doing some of the very popular things that polls say working class Whites support - like higher taxes on corporations. I think Democrats will eventually figure out how to win again in places like Missouri. But West Virginia may be the poster child of a failed Republican state for a long time. They will elect guys like Joe Manchin and Jim Justice, rich and interested in their own power and wealth as they are. And voters there will mostly be obliging peasants who just want the coal industry back. There. How's that for smug? I do think some of this is just an accident of history. If COVID had struck in early 2021, not early 2020, I think Trump probably would have been re-elected. If Clinton had won in 2016, I think inflation would still have been low from 2016 to 2019. But I get that working class people pissed about how eggs and gas cost more think things were better under Trump. They'll be disappointed again when eggs and gas cost the same and Trump panders to his rich donors again. On race, I will keep going with the idea that there are two Republican parties. There is the party of Trump, which I think panders to the racial grievances of older Whites, as you say. That's been proven in study after study, I think. When the dust settles, I think one reason Harris will win is because she'll get in the ballpark of the percentage vote of Blacks and Hispanics that Biden got in 2020. But there is also the Republican party of Tim Scott or Nikki Haley. It doesn't surprise me that the part of the Black community most likely to vote Republican are younger Blacks, more highly educated, who look and think like Tim Scott. Good for them. There is no shortage of Blacks who says the organic conservatism of the Black community (evangelicals) would make more vote Republican if the Republican Party wasn't so damn racist. Tim Scott makes them less damn racist. The problem I have with Halperin, but what also makes him very good at what he does, is he is fundamentally cynical. So I think that helps explain why he thinks Trump voters will be less shocked if Trump loses. They have a cynical view, anyway. Many of them are authoritarian followers who are happy to follow a cynical authoritarian leader like Trump. I think Halperin views this as just being all part of "The Circus", to steal the name of the show of his former partner in crime (and fellow cynic) John Heilemann. For Halperin, Obama v. McCain would just be a different version of The Circus. And his role is to be the brilliant journalist rooting around for the inside scoop of a cynical game. That is what Game Change was about. And I loved it. The problem is Halperin exudes the feeling that Hitler v. Jews and Gays and Democracy would be viewed kind of the same way, if you are a Straight Christian White centrist. Or, Lincoln v. Slavery would be viewed the same, to use a more American example. It's not a fundamental clash of principles, or two different directions. It's just another version of The Circus. Perhaps just a bit more extreme. It's probably unfair to view Halperin that way. But I think that would help explain why he might think half the country will be shocked if Trump wins. As if there is really nothing to be shocked about.

Trump suggests he won’t debate Harris again, attacks ABC over moderators’ fact-checking I am getting a real kick out of the collective whining about how unfair ABC, and life in general is, to poor spoiled rich boy Donald Trump. He lost a debate because he can't help being a narcissistic liar. And, like a narcissistic liar, he now wants to whine and blame it everyone but himself. He's once against setting up the standard that a Republican in good standing has to take an oath to NOT tell the truth - whether it's about whether Trump lost the election, or some crazy shit he said during a debate. Meanwhile, no Republicans are attacking ABC for giving Trump five more minutes than Harris. Which he used to make himself look like a fool. No Republican is attacking ABC for "rigging" the debate by making the first question to Harris, "Do you think people are better off than four years ago?" That is THE perfect pro-Trump question. Which Trump himself would have asked Harris about a dozen times if he weren't so busy nursing his own man child ego. I have looked at several fact check lists like at BBC and DW. I could not get behind the WSJ's pay wall, which I assume might have the most Trump-friendly of fact check lists. All the items called out about Harris, and some of the ones about Trump, were completely appropriate things for them to say in the context of a debate. It's completely debatable whether Harris was correct about Trump leaving Biden and her with the "worst" unemployment ever. Just like it's debatable whether Biden and Harris created the "worst" inflation ever, as Trump claimed. That is what debates are for. If ABC had continuously fact checked claims like that, I would be pissed. The debate is supposed to be between the candidates. Trump just did a super shitty job. Same with whether Trump supports a national abortion ban. A smart debater often makes claims that force their opponent to deny things. In fact, ABC handed Trump the opportunity to say he would veto a national abortion ban. He would not. At least implying that he does support a national abortion ban. The two things I recall being called out were whether immigrants are eating pets, and whether Democrats are killing babies. Those are bald-faced lies, not open to interpretation. It is illegal to kill babies. There in no proof that immigrants in Ohio are stealing and eating pets. Trump of course wasn't going to be called out on a lie. So of course he has to turn it into a debate with ABC, both then and now. Trump wants to be able to tell any ridiculous lie he wants and never be challenged. Why is everyone not surprised? Trump is a whining loser. That's just a fact.

Read this in Politico today, in an interview with Democratic strategist and former head of a Democratic SuperPAC, Guy Cecil: Sounds like 2024 may be the opposite of 2020, with Democrats having a turnout advantage.

I like that. Maybe bring Don Jr. and Eric in with their dead cats and turn it into real American carnage. Of course, we want Matt Gaetz and Tulsi and the ever charming Stephen Miller to reprise their roles as debate coaches. Although Gaetz should bring some of his cocaine and underage girls. It might calm Donald down, if he has some pussy to grab and what not. Not the Springfield cats kind. Real pussy. Karen Dunn Interesting Wikipedia profile of the woman who prepped Harris, along with her domestic policy adviser Rohini Kosoglu. Dunn is like a Who's Who of Democratic insiders. She worked with Senator Hillary Clinton, then with Axelrod on the 2008 Obama campaign. Directed debate prep for Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 2016, and for Harris as Veep in 2020. Also an insider's guide to doing legal work for Silicon Valley. Clients include Apple, Oracle, Uber, and Jeff Bezos. Rightly or wrongly, I always feel why this is the Democratic Party can not engage true economic populism. Too much money from Wall Street and Silicon Valley, both in the front door through campaign contributions and the back door through all these work networks.