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From Bangkok Post Local forex firm disinfecting banknotes A local foreign-exchange firm is disinfecting the banknotes it collects from its branches as a safety precaution for its workers and customers because of the coronavirus outbreak. Super Rich Currency Exchange Co has 15 branches at popular tourist areas in Bangkok. “We have to ensure the safety for the staff, too. We have solutions to clean and protect our staff,” said chief executive Piya Tantivachyanon told Reuters. https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1878775/local-forex-firm-disinfecting-banknotes#cxrecs_s =================================================================== Apple closing all stores outside China Apple Inc is closing all of its stores outside China until March 27 in a bid to slow the spread of the coronavirus outbreak, CEO Tim Cook says. https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1878765/apple-closing-all-stores-outside-china =================================================================== Isetan to exit Thailand after 28 years The Japanese retailer Isetan will pull out of Thailand after 28 years after the rental contract for its Bangkok department store ends in August. Isetan Thailand issued a statement saying it would end the operation of the store at CentralWorld in Bangkok on Aug 31, when its contract for the space with Central Pattana Plc ends. https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1878800/isetan-to-exit-thailand-after-28-years

"Buy when others are fearful" Warren Buffett

Excerpted from Bangkok Post Doctors issue Stage-3 warning An association of chest physicians is calling on the government to prepare for Covid-19 to become a "Stage 3", full-blown epidemic in Thailand while slamming the authorities' slow response to the spread of the disease. On its Facebook page, the Thoracic Society of Thailand issued an emotionally charged statement warning that the country might not be equipped to deal with a drastic escalation in the number of cases. This week's rise in the number of cases, particularly those attributed to local transmission, indicates that the country is beginning to enter Stage 3, according to the statement. The society said it has been trying to alert agencies involved of the need for preparations. "And though there is a degree of response, this is still not enough to deal with this major health crisis," according to the official statement. In Stage 3 -- the highest of an outbreak, all state and private hospitals must identify all patients with severe Covid-19 infections and isolate them in hospitals for treatment to cut the rate of transmission, the society said. The society also took aim at government agencies responsible for combating the virus: "The virus outbreak has shown that state mechanisms designed to respond to national crises are always one step behind. "But this does not dampen the spirit of medical professionals who will not surrender to these tiny enemies. We will not bow to those in high places who lack expertise and do not understand how we work. Now is the time for us to prepare for war even if there are no efficient weapons or decisive commanders," the statement said. According to the Isara News Agency, the emergency operation centre under the Disease Control Department has compiled a report which suggests that Thailand remains unlikely to enter Stage 3 as the existing measures can still theoretically control the spread of the virus. However, the agency quoted the report urging that social distancing, particularly a ban on mass gatherings, must be implemented in eight high-risk provinces, including Bangkok, this month. If no proactive measures are put in place, the report warned that infections may reach a point where they could no longer be controlled and the number of infected patients would rise quickly and could reach 2,250 by May, according to projections included in the report. https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1878380/doctors-issue-stage-3-warning

But the report cited above is dated October of last year, well before the outbreak of the current Corona Virus. If anything, the actual US response has proven to be woefully inadequate when put to the test this year. So if the US was ranked number one in overall preparedness, what should be concluded about the actual--not theoretical--preparedness of Thailand that ranked number 6? One of the most controversial Thai responses was to advise its own citizens in Italy to remain there. Trying to manage the response chiefly by continually tweaking a list of restrictions on in-bound visitors (or its own citizens) is proving to be a design-by-committee approach. It's difficult to even buy a new surgical face mask in Bangkok.

They seem to be in competition with Trump administration to see who concoct the most most irrational and convoluted restrictions protocols. Pong's posts are more comprehensible.

Excerpted from South China Morning Post As coronavirus becomes pandemic, scientists ask if lines on the map hold the key to contagion’s spread Studies suggest that ‘hotspots’ for virus that causes Covid-19 are found between the 30 to 50 degree lines of latitude north Temperature and humidity data might allow scientists to forecast the ‘next’ Wuhan The coronavirus pandemic that has infected more than 125,000 people around the world is concentrated in a “corridor” across the northern hemisphere, researchers said, as more studies focused on how temperature and humidity could be used to predict the spread of the contagion. Despite worries that Southeast Asia may become a coronavirus hotspot after central China (where the Covid-19 outbreak started) because of their proximity and travel connections to the infection’s epicentre, more countries and regions like South Korea, Japan, Iran, northern Italy and the northwestern United States may have to bear the heaviest burden. “The establishment of community transmission has occurred in a consistent east-and-west pattern. The new [regional] epicentres of the virus were all roughly along the 30-50 degree [lines of latitude] north zone,” according to a team of US and Iranian researchers. Their work, made public this week on the Social Science Research Network (SSRN) and pending review by peer experts, said that common temperature and humidity factors in these locations may allow epidemiologists to anticipate where virus cases may become focused. The US-Iranian researchers, led by Mohammad Sajadi of University of Maryland School of Medicine in Baltimore, said there was a “striking similarity” between conditions in locations inside the current outbreak corridor, with average temperatures in the five-to-11 degree Celsius range and relative humidity of between 47 and 79 per cent The coronavirus pandemic that has infected more than 125,000 people around the world is concentrated in a “corridor” across the northern hemisphere, researchers said, as more studies focused on how temperature and humidity could be used to predict the spread of the contagion. Despite worries that Southeast Asia may become a coronavirus hotspot after central China (where the Covid-19 outbreak started) because of their proximity and travel connections to the infection’s epicentre, more countries and regions like South Korea, Japan, Iran, northern Italy and the northwestern United States may have to bear the heaviest burden. “The establishment of community transmission has occurred in a consistent east-and-west pattern. The new [regional] epicentres of the virus were all roughly along the 30-50 degree [lines of latitude] north zone,” according to a team of US and Iranian researchers.The study was part of wider efforts by scientists to understand which traits the new coronavirus shared with other human coronaviruses and flu viruses, which display strong winter seasonality. Earlier, researchers from Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou, China, found that transmission of the coronavirus responsible for the Covid-19 disease was sensitive to temperature, with an optimum environment of around 8.72 degrees Celsius – a finding that concurred with the US-Iran researchers’ observations. Other researchers, including Marc Lipsitch of Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston, Massachusetts, said that transmission of the new coronavirus was sustained in a range of temperatures and humidity, and that people should not pin their hopes on weather alone for the epidemic to go away. The US-Iranian researchers, led by Mohammad Sajadi of University of Maryland School of Medicine in Baltimore, said there was a “striking similarity” between conditions in locations inside the current outbreak corridor, with average temperatures in the five-to-11 degree Celsius range and relative humidity of between 47 and 79 per cent. US-China Trade War Newsletter “These locations also exhibit a commonality in that the timing of the outbreak coincides with a nadir in the yearly temperature cycle, ” the study said. “[This is] perhaps pointing to increased risk of outbreaks with prolonged conditions in this [temperature] range.” Making reference to temperature data from last March and April, the study predicted that new community spread in the coming weeks could emerge in areas just north of the current corridor. This spread could include northeastern and Midwest US, British Columbia, the British Isles and northeastern China. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074970/coronavirus-becomes-pandemic-scientists-ask-if-lines-map-hold

Because basing numbers solely on total cases and not on cases per 100,000 population skews any meaningful comparison of risk analysis. In the case of Russia, you have to ask yourself if you actually believe that a country as vast as Russia--a nation that exercises a total lock on its media--could only have 34 cases.

From Bangkok Post Inbound arrivals face mandatory measures The Department of Disease Control (DDC) plans to impose compulsory measures for all inbound arrivals, including notifying personal information and contact information such as mobile phone numbers and email addresses as part of steps to control the Covid-19 outbreak. The measure will commence on Thursday and all personal information for inbound tourists will be kept in the system for 14 days after their arrival. The information can be provided through immigration form TM8 or an application developed by the National Science and Technology Development Agency that can be downloaded from Thursday. Foreign tourists can continue using their mobile SIM card for phone packages with roaming service, or buy a new SIM card at 49 baht with unlimited internet. DES Minister Buddhipongse Punnakanta said the government will ask for cooperation from all inbound tourists to provide personal data and contact details on immigration forms or via the downloaded application. Immigration officers will check the completeness of the personal data provided on the forms or the app before allowing travellers to pass the immigration counter. "Please do not call this a tracking system because the state will track them only when critical situations arise, when they need to be monitored to handle the outbreak," said Mr Buddhipongse. He said daily inbound arrivals average 70,000, comprising 20,000 Thais and 50,000 foreigners. Inbound tourists who refuse to fill in the personal information will be prohibited from passing through immigration points, according to Section 12(7) of the immigration law. Paiboon Amonpinyokeat, a cyber legal expert, said using mobile phone tracking is an effective measure and other countries like Singapore rely on the accuracy of GPS in smartphones and cell-site locations that can pinpoint locations precisely. This measure does not violate privacy as it is in line with public health law because this is a serious epidemic and concerns public safety. The gathered data can be analysed in the map and used for zoning. It can be used to alert the DDC when quarantined people are not in their places or informed addresses, sending warnings to other people who might stay nearby. The measure is also supported by Pawoot Pongvitayapanu, chief executive of Tarad.com, a local e-marketplace. "The tracking history of the target's location can help officers pinpoint who is at risk of being infected if they are nearby those targets," said Mr Pawoot. https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1875989/inbound-arrivals-face-mandatory-measures

Placing countries on a restriction list has both public health and political considerations. We’ve seen this play out where a few countries were initially included in the Thai list only to be abruptly removed the same day. Trade, security and diplomatic history need to be weighed. It’s not a perfect, objective world.

There are usually about 10 waiters who work the Hot Male beer bar and some IMO have well-developed physiques I’d be hard pressed to describe as twinky (albeit a subjective term).

With limited availability of test kits makes this a particularly onerous requirement designed more for pols to cover their butts. Those who support the “shaming” of those who choose to fly will be ecstatic. in the end I believe that none of these strategies will have any significant effect in arresting the progression of the virus. It will run its course as corona viruses are historically prone to do. These actions’ will likely be more remembered for contributing to broad damage to economies across the globe, with no small help from the media that shouts the sky is falling 24/7.

This is the key takeaway for me. When the Tourism Authority recommends you reconsider you’re trip, a prudent traveler might well take heed. Give them an “A” for not mincing words. I’ve seen many events that have engendered outright panic among investors and the public at large but few approaching this level. I’m reminded of the advice of legendary investor Warren Buffett: buy when others are fearful, sell when others are greedy.

From Bangkok Post Airlines may face virus medical bills in new rules: CAA Thailand’s aviation regulator said airlines should ask passengers coming from high-risk territories for health certificates to establish they are free of the new coronavirus. Travellers who can’t provide documentation should be prevented from boarding flights to the Asian nation, according to a Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand notice posted Monday. Carriers are liable for treatment costs if they fly in people who become sick with Covid-19, the notice said. The new framework applies to six territories: China, Hong Kong, Macau, South Korea, Iran and Italy. Thailand has designated them danger zones for infection, as it steps up efforts against Covid-19 after so far restricting the number of confirmed cases to 50. The Tourism Authority of Thailand, a government agency, wrote on Facebook on Monday that travellers coming from the six regions “will undergo 14 days quarantine,” adding more details will be announced shortly. “We advise all travellers to consider carefully whether they still want to pursue their journey,” the authority wrote. https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1874954/airlines-may-face-virus-medical-bills-in-new-rules-caa#cxrecs_s

If this becomes a pandemic, bans and quarantines lose any effectiveness they may—or may not—have had. The virus at that stage is spreading within the native population without assistance of foreigners. Thailand currently has not banned citizens of China or any other country experiencing infections. If the announced quarantines actually are put into effect, tourism from northeast Asian countries that have traditionally supplied the bulk of Silom’s business will all but dry up. At the moment you can still see small groups of young Asians and solo older ones In and about the entertainment areas. Some of them patronize the bars we discuss here. It will be a shame to see them turned away by a muddled policy that says you’re welcome to come but spend your first two weeks in splendid isolation.

Have you seen up close the results of a high speed collision? I did for many years. So spare me the crap about proudly breaking the speed limit and doing it safely.

I’d hold off making plans for Songkran because of the government’s lack of a clear policy regarding possible quarantine on.arrival. Maybe it will gets It’s act together soon but until then it’s a crapshoot. But if you can tolerate the uncertainty then you’ll find the town business as usual. Since you’d be coming with you boyfriend, I assume you wouldn’t be looking to do a lot of offing anyway.

I suppose it’s all relative to your home country experience. At my age, 70 is my comfort level. When I want to faster I fly to Bangkok.

When everyone is in charge no one is in charge. TIT

Painfully slow traffic? Major highways are 70 mph. Yes, motorways have fewer total deaths but that’s because you don’t have pedestrians crossing streets to deal with. Motorways are limited access roads. It’s not the speed factor that’s responsible.

Various government agencies have issued conflicting information to in-bound travelers this week that could affect their arrival status. These involve flight origin and transit locations. If booking flights to Thailand, it seems prudent that we fully understand the implications of the latest statement. Having to self quarantine for two weeks if your traveling through any of the evolving list of locations (even as a transit only passenger) could take two weeks out of your trip. If there was ever a time to purchase flexible tickets, or those that can be changed and/or cancelled at reasonable cost, this is that time because there is no way to know —at least at the moment—what your status will be on the day of arrival. If we’re lucky and this scourge is behind us in a few months, none of this will hopefully remain in effect. But considering the uncertainty (and constant “breaking news” coverage) it seems wise to give it its due. From Bangkok Post Tuesday: Thailand threw possibly tens of thousands of holiday plans into confusion after Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul ordered any new arrivals from nine countries and two territories to undergo quarantine for the coronavirus, before swiftly reversing the decision. Mr Anutin posted an announcement Tuesday saying travellers from affected countries would be subjected to a 14-day quarantine "without exceptions". The countries were China, South Korea, Japan, Germany, France, Singapore, Italy, Iran and Taiwan. Hong Kong and Macau were also included on the list. The post was removed hours later, and his official Facebook page was taken down. Mr Anutin's apparent moment of indecision — which raised concern on Twitter among Thais and foreign travellers — was played down Wednesday by Public Health Ministry spokesman Taweesin Visanuyothin. From Bangkok Post today: The government has defined four countries and two territories as dangerous zones and restrictions may follow to prevent the outbreak of coronavirus. The announcement, dated Monday and published in the Royal Gazette on Thursday, classified South Korea, China, Macao, Hong Kong, Italy and Iran as "dangerous communicable disease areas". The move came as the Thai postal service began disinfecting all packages received from overseas, although the World Health Organization has said it is safe to receive post from badly affected countries such as China. No quarantine measure has been officially announced, but Public Health Ministry spokesman Rungrueng Kitphati told Reuters on Thursday it would come into effect on Friday. "Thais and foreigners who came from these places would have to go through self-quarantine for 14 days at home or in a hotel room, where they have to report themselves to the authorities every day or officials will come to check on them," Dr Rungrueng said. This means that all arrivals from these places, including those that transit through them, will have to provide the authorities with their addresses and travel plans and be self-quarantined for 14 days.

From Coconuts Bangkok How ‘salim’ went from Thai dessert to fashionable insult “You are salim!” the man hissed, with something between a sneer and smile. The target of this slander? An old schoolmate who, six years ago, was among those painting Thai flags on their cheeks and denouncing the democratically elected government to all their Instagram followers. The schoolmate wasn’t the only one with military lineage and an I’m-important “Na Ayudhaya” tacked onto their name at the recent hi-so wedding. Like most of the 30-somethings there, he’s unhappy with how things have turned out six years after they helped engineer a coup by blowing whistles and “shutting down” Bangkok. But he was also unhappy to be called “salim,” even in jest, a term which online and off has become the go-to insult: an ultraconservative/ultraroyalist. The term has been around for awhile but has become hot slander since molten rage erupted among those who’d pinned hope on a progressive political party disbanded two weeks ago. What is salim? Salim is a dessert made from mung bean noodles served in a bowl of coconut milk, syrup and crushed ice. Importantly, salim comes in many colors, and its journey from sweet to sobriquet begins with the color-coded political fracture following the 2006 coup. For just over a decade, the populace was divided between Redshirts and Yellowshirts. Though they defy easy demographic shorthand, the Reds rallied behind ousted populist PM Thaksin Shinawatra and were generally more pro-democratic. Continues at https://coconuts.co/bangkok/features/explainer-how-salim-went-from-thai-dessert-to-fashionable-insult/

From Khaosod English ARRESTED VENDOR SAYS SHE SELLS 200,000 REUSED MASKS SARABURI — The owner of a shop in Saraburi province where workers were caught repackaging and reselling used face masks were charged with fraud, police said Wednesday. Saraburi police chief Chaiwat Aranwat said shop’s owner Jintana Manwichai, 47, confessed that she had sold up to 200,000 pieces of recycled masks at the price of three baht each on Facebook. She and her accomplices were charged with selling falsely labeled goods and frauds, Maj. Gen. Chaiwat said. They were also charged with selling antiques without a license; second hand materials count as antiques under Thai laws. Police said the suspects will be brought to a court today for a remand hearing. Head of Medical Services Department Somsak Akkslip told Thairath sharing face masks with others is extremely unhygienic. The incident came a day before the government took full control of the distribution of face masks in the country. https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2020/03/04/arrested-vendor-says-she-sells-200000-reused-masks/

The public is now being advised to only wear face masks if they are (1) caring for someone believed to have the virus or (2) If you are coughing or sneezing. The graphic below appears in an article that also describes the Thai government’s new investigation into the availability of masks in the country. https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1871804/mask-shortage-sparks-supply-chain-

Comparative risk per 100,000 population: number of cases South Korea. 9.39 China. 6.02 Italy. 3.36 Singapore 1.86 Taiwan 1.74 Hong Kong. 1.38 Iran 1.18 Random others: France 0.29 Japan 0.21 Germany 0.18 Malaysia 0.11 Thailand 0.06 United States 0.02 Vietnam 0.02

Risk is usually represented by incidence per 100,000 population Assessing risk by number of cases or number of deaths is an irregular measurement for purpose of relative comparison In any case, why not make a list of top 9 instead of top 10?