DivineMadman

I know some Burmese guys who have "work permits," but I thought it was much harder for Vietnamese guys to get those semi-legit work permits (except for the ones who are brought in by their employer for construction, etc.) That's why I assume the regular Vietnamese guys "working" on the scene in Thailand are not holding work permits. Interesting. The current rules for work permit holders returning to Thailand only apply to people who can make the case to the local embassy that there is some sort of compelling economic urgency for their return. Of course local embassies can interpret that however they want.

Interesting to see how this plays out. Presumably Laos/Cambodia won't open their borders unless Thailand opens its land borders as well. And your friends would be coming in on tourist visas or visa-exempt, not work permits. A lot to happen in the next three weeks. Fingers crossed. That would be a big step towards the "old" normal.

A while back I read an article that basically said that it's a tough question and the research is only starting. There are some factors that are relatively easy to identify, including the relative age of the populations being compared and the relative prevalence of other conditions (comorbidity?). Thus, in the U.S. the population is comparatively older, and there's a much higher prevalence of obesity, hypertension, etc. That might explain a lot of the difference. But this particular article - which I think might had a focus on Pakistan - did note that researchers would be looking into all the potential factors they could imagine, including exposure to other diseases in the population.

Most countries would be thrilled to have Thailand's success with respect to COVID-19.

And Italy and Greece have spread their legs arms open to travelers from a bunch of countries already.

The earliest proposed bubble that I heard about was to be between Australia and New Zealand in very early May, and that still hasn't been implemented. Shows how difficult the process will be.

My guess - and I hope never to find out in person - is that they are just trying to capture the easy cases of incoming buses and airplanes - and only from the high risk provinces. That would be sensible, and avoids getting all bolloxed up over whether some people can get through. A "do not let the perfect be the enemy of the good" solution. (And I suppose hotels might end up enforcing as well.) It would seem likely that if someone really wants to get into Chiang Mai without the hassle it would be possible. Note that each province can set its own rules. That might explain why Kanchanburi tested but others in between didn't. With luck these sorts of restrictions will disappear soon enough.

I think that's right. The pool of potential travelers is much smaller: the people (1) still have the money to travel internationally now, even though with most economies not doing very well, (2) who are willing to to take the risk of international travel and increased exposure, and (3) will deal with the inevitable testing/tracking/tracing and insurance issues.

If .... and it is of course a big "if" .... the government follows through with the bubble-within-a-bubble travel idea for islands like Phuket and Samui, then it is possible , that they would put travel restrictions on Thais going in and out of the high-risk bubbles. This might, for example, mean guys can't come down to Phuket from Bangkok for a few days and then go home. (An analogy might be the mandatory quarantine on arrival in Chiang Mai that is in effect now.). Certainly some guys would relocate to Phuket or Samui or wherever. But it may not be as easy as calling a friend to come dow to Phuket for a few days. I think this is just one of the many issues the government is working through as it tries to figure out these sorts of first steps to start re-opening tourism. It might just end up an idea too complicated to work out and enough time will pass that the government gets safe with testing, track and trace. Note: People may have seen that French Polynesia is opening up July 15 - requiring fit-to-fly no COVID-19 certificate, insurance, testing after arrival, among other things.

To clarify a weee bit. This quote is with respect to the current phase - the opening up for domestic tourism. So the "self-assured, have high standards, expect new innovations to combat the health situation, and are concerned for family and friends once back home" is how they are characterizing the young upwardly-mobile Thais. The kind that flock to craft beer shops and Prada. For foreigners, I expect they will be looking for the low-volume high value tourists who will be happy holed up for a week or so at a nice resort on Phuket or Samui to start.

I don't understand the point you are trying to make. Sathorn is full of foreigners working in Thailand. There are lots and lots of Western, Japanese, Chinese, South Korean, etc., etc., businesses with operations in Thailand. Foreign executives, managers, etc., are sent from their home country to work there on work visas. There are social clubs for expats like this in Bangkok. These are the people that the programs currently designed for. There are many, many newspaper articles discussing the issue that the SE Asian countries are addressing right now - restarting the supply chain. None of this is secret. The Thai government has not opened up to expats on long-term visas or on marriage visas. Maybe they will have the exact same rules for those people. But that hasn't been announced yet. My point remains: Don't say it something is "crazy" and "not practical" for tourists when the Thai government has not said that it applies to tourists. Simple point. Wait until they say what the rules will be for tourists, and then criticize those.

FYI re Herd Immunity. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/28/upshot/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

Right now everyone is quarantined - fever or no fever.

I don't think I understand the question. Right now, visa-exempt and Tourist Viaa holders (and ED visa holders and O visa holders and O-A visa holders (and more)) simply cannot board an aircraft to fly to Thailand or get past immigration. I don't think vacancies or down-payments make a diff. A very legitimate concern. I am not sure that symptoms develop that quickly, but certainly exposure in transit is a risk once travel is possible. There was a similar story on a recent repatriation flight from S. Korea. Several Thais on that flight had fevers on arrival. [The mandatory quarantine of course addresses this risk as far letting people in who could spread the virus.] Another unfortunate take-away from the repeated stories that the only new cases in Thailand are individuals who have just repatriated is that it can only delay reopening of the borders. It shows the risk of letting people back in.

It's not intended for tourists. That is 100% clear. It's not intended for tourists. This is for the few business work visa and similar types. I think we all really can and should wait until there is an actual set of rules for tourists before criticizing.

I recall that when they cancelled Songkran the gov't did say they might make up for it in July. This government does seem to like giving extra holidays to the people. Sabai sabai.

hehehe

First questions I had were: 1. Will there be water fun or is it just a long holiday to pacify the people? My guess is no big water fights on Silom, but that's just a guess. 2. If there are water fights, what will Andy do? My immediate reaction was that I doubted the government would have a replacement "Songkran" if tourists were allowed - because they could easily go out of control and create super-spreader situations - so less likely tourists will be welcome with open socially-distant arms before August (at the earliest). But again, that's just a guess.

Two steps forward - one step back. https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1166360-pattaya-filthy-black-water-floods-into-the-sea-just-as-authorities-plan-to-open-beach-again/

Guys - don't feed the troll.

FYI (I separately told Reader this already) - GeoBlue in the U.S. does not have a pandemic exclusion if: "The Covered Person has not unreasonably failed or refused to depart a country or location following the date a warning to leave that country or location is issued by the United State government". My guess is that the current U.S. "essential travel only" rule would likely mean the coverage is not currently available, but at least their old policies did not have a pandemic exclusion, so worth keeping in mind once the U.S. lifts the travel warning. (Of course policies can change. Check the fine print at the time. ) I think the U.S. at one point said all travelers should return home, but then in late March changed it to return home or be prepared to stay long-term. I have no idea how that would all play out in the policy.

Some people appear to be reading too much into the latest developments. The government announced an end to the internal lockdown. The opening up the government announced was the opening up of businesses within Thailand and internationally for only a very certain class of travelers - primarily business (work permit) travelers on a case-by-case basis with a need to travel to Thailand who follow a special process with the Thai Embassy (which is why the Embassy will be vetting the insurance policies). Thailand did not announce anything about tourists or opening up to tourists. Before people default into the usual crapping on Thailand or the Thai government, best thing to do is pause, relax, and make sure the facts are right. The Bangkok Posts is reasonably accurate but often imprecise. It's always best to check multiple sources before taking anything we read in the press as true. The same is true for most countries, I reckon. And check Richard Barrow. The Thai government gives very good English language press briefings Monday - Friday that are easy to find on-line, another excellent source that is direct from the water buffalo's mouth. If we take a cursory look at other countries in the region, opening up to tourists is but a glimmer in the eye of the local governments and Thailand seems to be the same. Indonesia has announced a planned opening of Bali to tourists in October. I don't think anyone outside or in the government knows what the final rules will be for tourist travel. I do think that unrestricted travel in the time of a pandemic is not a god-given right or even prudent; therefore, there will inevitably be some restrictions and those will be bothersome and maybe even make some people unable to travel. Spanish flu...second wave worst than the first...even Wuhan is nowhere near herd immunity....blah blah. A health insurance requirement would not surprise me at all. With luck the region will get together and have a uniform requirement so insurance companies can issue standard coverage certificates, as they do now when someone has to apply for a visa to a Shengen country. Or even better, the government can adopt the old proposal that there be a 300B tax on tourists to cover health insurance, and then people can complain about how that only covers government hospitals, 'cause we have to complain about something. Until an immunity passport becomes real, none of this will be easy.

You might want to look at World Nomads. [For U.S. residents - what they cover isn't the same for U.K residents or other countries - but feel free to check you non-US peeps] World Nomads does not have a pandemic/epidemic exclusion ("our plan does not exclude losses associated with pandemic or epidemic conditions; meaning that if you, your traveling companion or family member were to become sick (after you purchase the plan) as a result of the COVID-19 virus, you could still receive benefits for losses covered by the plan.") Also, there is no exclusion for travel during a State Department/CDC "essential travel only" period. There is a pretty decent set of FAQs. https://www.worldnomads.com/usa/help/insurance/recent-events/coronavirus-faqs The FAQs discuss the trip cancellation/interruption aspect of the policy as well as the health insurance aspect, which is what the Thai gov't is looking for. (Same for Vietnam and Cambodia, I think?) Given that right now the focus is on letting in only a select few work permit types (and similar), with each case reviewed by the embassy, I certainly have no clue how this requirement will play out for "regular" tourists. Also no guarantees that this won't change at any time......

except you're free to come and go, or not go, and, well, everything else.....

To give it some additional context, the usual GDP number for tourism in Thailand is around 18%, which people round up to 20%, even though 2% of GDP is a big round up. Of that, between 6-7% is usually the number for domestic tourism. The current government in particular has been big on programs to boost domestic tourism, and no surprise, that is first and foremost on the agenda for them as they start to start to loosen the COVID-19 rules. https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1924024/thailand-to-drive-domestic-tourism. [GDP itself is often thought of as mis-used figure because it doesn't take into account the cost side of things.] Without a doubt, the near-shut down of tourism has had a huge negative effect, and one that almost certainly falls disproportionately on the poorest. But obviously reopening too soon and without adequate screening and other protections just means there will be a second COVID-19 wave, leading to another round of lock-downs, etc., and the sacrifices that people have made so far will have been wasted. I think that is why the Thai government has sensibly taken a go-slow-and-safe approach on reopening and why they are planning on using the hard-won success in fighting COVID-19 as a marketing tool to win back the most desirable tourists ("Amazing Trusted Thailand"). My guess is Vietnam will also use it's success in dealing with COVID-19 as a marketing tool. We should all be thrilled that they are doing this. It keeps us safe. I'm 100% for a brand that says "COVID-19 safety is our priority so you can relax." Right now it's officially wet season, so from a tourism perspective shoulder or heading into low season. My guess is that the powers that be understand that the money lost by rushing to open now is just a prudent if painful investment compared with the losses that would occur if there is a second wave of COVID-19 that would hit the next high season.