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Things are looking better for sure in the gogo boy arena in gay Bangkok! I thought some things might be closed this weekend but they were not. All were open. Jupiter had about 15 or so guys. They had a beautiful singer who was talented and sang like an angel. I loved listening to him. I think they got him singing early just so I would drink. I almost left as I hate shows. But, holy cow, he was good. I sat and listened and had a drink with him later. Dreamboys is still overly expensive and overrated. Some good looking guys but nothing the likes of other bars. Screwboys had over 13 boys. That was the most I have seen since they reopened. I gave them each 100 baht as I was the only customer. Freshboys was filled with cute boys but few customers. Hotmale was packed with boys and with customers. Perhaps the only place with more customers than boys. Well, not perhaps. 100% certain. They were filled and selling drink after drink.

On my first visit to Bangkok 18 years ago, I recall regularly seeing a handicapped young man on upper Silom rd. He had no legs below the knees and no hands on either arm. He propelled himself on a roller board of the type mechanics use to work under cars. I'd put a 20-baht note in his cup and and we eventually managed to exchange a few words. He was strikingly handsome and had an infectious smile. I also saw him a few times on Saturdays when I visited Chatuchak Market. After my third trip I no longer ran into him but I still frequently think of him when I walk along that portion of Silom that is now a construction site where Robinson's used to be. When I spotted thew following article in the Vietnam news today, I immediately again thought of that young man. There's a lot of sad news out there these days but this is not one of them. From Vietnam News Student gives piggyback to friend for over 10 years Ngô Minh Hiếu carries his classmate Nguyễn Tất Minh on his back to school every day. — Photo: nld.com.vn by Khiếu Tư THANH HOÁ — Nguyễn Tất Minh was born without any legs, but fortunately he has a friend – a classmate – who gives him a piggy-back to and from school. Ngô Minh Hiếu has been Minh’s legs for the past ten years. With his friend’s assistance, Minh has never missed a single class. The story of the two teenagers has been widely shared on social media and received widespread media coverage, describing the friendship as “so inspiring and touching". Hiếu started carrying Minh to school when they were in second grade. Due to his disability, Minh faces a lot of difficulties. His father’s health is also bad while his mother struggles to make ends meet. This meant getting to school was always going to be difficult for him. Understand Minh’s desire to study and his strong determination, Hiếu decided to help him. Hiếu still remembers what he told his parents when he was only 7 years old. “I’ll carry Minh to school every day,” he recalled. His parents thought it was simply a childish impulse, but over the past ten years, Hiếu has become Minh’s legs. They play and learn together, helping each other improve. Minh said although they shared a lot of memories, there was one that left a deep impression. “I will never forget going to school together on a rainy day when we were in third grade. We fell together because the road was slippery.” The duo have finished 12th grade and both of them got good scores in the national high school exams. Hiếu got a score of 28.15 while Minh got 28.10. This was a joint effort that created the motivation for them to realise their dreams. “When I was in second grade, I felt sympathy for Minh and volunteered to carry him to school on my back. Minh give me more strength to accomplish what I want myself,” Hieu said. Continues at https://vietnamnews.vn/society/771908/student-gives-piggyback-to-friend-for-over-10-years.html

From The Diplomat The shrinking Tonle Sap, the river’s “beating heart,” is the latest wake-up call of the damage wrought by dams. By Tom Fawthrop The miracle of the Mekong, where the pulsating force of the monsoon-driven river every year pushes its tributary to back up and reverse its flow into the great Tonle Sap lake in Cambodia, has again been disrupted and obstructed by dams, drought, and climate change. “This is a terrible disaster for the whole Mekong region,” Thai academic Chainarong Setthachua declared. He told The Diplomat, “If we lose the Tonle Sap we lose the heart of the biggest inland fisheries in the world.” The lake is a critical fishing ground for Cambodia, as well as supporting fish migrations along the entire Mekong. Back in 2014, Chheng Phen, the former director of Cambodia’s Inland Fisheries Research and Development Institute, told the New York Times, “If the Tonle Sap does not function,” he said, “then the whole fishery of the Mekong will collapse.” That is exactly what the Mekong region is facing today. For the second year running, the wild pulsating waters of the Mekong have failed to work their traditional monsoon magic, which in normal times empowers the Tonle Sap lake to expand to five times its dry season size. The Tonle Sap’s area before (left) and after the annual flooding expands its banks. Image courtesy of Eureka Films. It is hard to exaggerate the extent of the unfolding disaster caused primarily by Chinese dams upstream, trapping both water and sediment that is vital to the healthy survival of the Mekong ecosystem. The Tonle Sap crisis has also been greatly exacerbated by the two Lao dams – the Xayaburi dam and the Don Sahong launched in 2019 – that have blocked fish movement and sediment. Thailand and Malaysia are the developers and prime investors for those projects. The Mekong-driven reverse flow had for centuries transformed the Tonle Sap lake, flooding what was once a sizable forest into part of the largest inland lake in Southeast Asia. In normal times the arrival of the rainy season flood and the reversal of the Tonle Sap tributary replenishes an amazing nursery of the fisheries by giving birth to the flooded forest of the lake. But in 2020, like last year, too little water arrived and too late in the five-month rainy season from June to October. In 2019 the belated arrival of the flood pulse in mid-August led to the influx of shallow, warm, oxygen-starved waters and countless thousands of dead fish. The same drought syndrome is happening again in 2020, with the damaged Mekong monsoon flow too weak push the Tonle Sap tributary back into the lake until mid-August (in a normal year it starts in June). The Stimson Foundation’s Mekong specialist Brian Eyler recalled the wider impacts of last year’s disaster, now repeating itself: “The Tonle Sap’s 2.5 million fishermen took on higher levels of debt to cope with the extremely low fish catch. Now in 2020 it is maybe worse. These cycles of high debt and low fish catch can only be repeated so many times before the economy around the lake and likely the country itself begins to fall apart.” Senglong Youk, the Tonle Sap team leader of local NGO FACT (Fisheries Action Coalition), estimates that 20-30 percent of all fishermen have abandoned their livelihood to look for alternative employment. Eyler, who is also the author of “The Last Days of the Mighty Mekong,” closely monitors China’s dams upstream. His research has now confirmed that “Chinese dams in July 2020 began to restrict an unprecedented amount of water while the countries downstream suffered drought in a repeat performance of last year.” While the Chinese government and the Mekong River Commission (MRC) have claimed the primary causes of the drought are extra low rainfall and the El Nino effect, several studies have convincingly shown that these factors are far less important in causing the decimation of lower Mekong fisheries than the rapid expansion of hydropower. A 2013 study from Aalto University in Finland conducted by Timo Rasanen demonstrated the impacts of upstream dams far outweighed climate change in its effects on the Tonle Sap lake. Ian Cowx, director of Hull University’s International Fisheries Institute (HIFI) in the U.K., explained via email that the biggest long-term obstacle to the recovery of fisheries would not come from climate change and this drought, but rather from the dams upstream. “All fish species are adapted to periods of droughts and floods,” he wrote. “The big issue here is the reduction in flows caused by Chinese dams, the Lower Sesan 2 dam [on a Mekong tributary in Cambodia], and the loss of the Hou Sahong channel because of Don Sahong dam.” All these dams – not only the Chinese but also Thailand’s massive Xayaburi dam in Laos and the Malaysian-promoted Don Sahong dam – have changed the hydrology flow of the river and undermined the flood-pulse. Continues at https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/the-last-farewell-to-the-mighty-mekong/ (Tom Fawthrop, based in Southeast Asia, has been a regular contributor to the Guardian, Economist, South China Morning Post, and The Diplomat for many years)

As above......thanks for the ongoing reports.......they really are great to read ! I can't help feeling sorry for the boys, knowing how difficult life is for them anyway, prior to lockdown / virys :-( It really must be so difficult whilst we in other places in the world find that our pocket money grows and cannot be spent. The guys still have to pay rent and bills without many customers poor boys :-( I'd like to give them all a massive virtual HUG from Wales xxx

Its not impossible. Greece, Argentina and i bet many more had this happened. When a country in default, thats what happened. The bank freezes all withdrawal, so even if you have money, no way to access it. I remember before this Myanmar was the same case, as my colleague who worked there had to bring cash from malaysia to myanmar as our company cannot pay their salary over there. Im pretty sure similar or worse things happened in war-stricken nation too. Now, will it happened to thailand? Who knows...

I'd say rather ' people with income". A lot of retirees would become all of the sudden in favor of opening when it was announced that due to covid foreign money transfers are suspended . ( I know it's impossible, one year ago having Swampy empty for 6 months in row seemed impossible too )

...

i made my reservations to go to Rio and SP on October 7th for 2 weeks. i was going to go to Porto Alegre also but the limited plane service from SP made that difficult so i passed. My apt i have stayed at the past 10 years in Ipanema was remodeled from a 2bdr/2 bath to a 3 bed/3 bath which will make it more fun! I talk or text regularly with about 10 of them and they all say the situation is still as bad economically as it has been the past 6 months, i have also gotten messages from guys i haven’t heard or seen in years looking for work or asking about moving to mexico! these guys are going back to escorting after losing jobs as a soccer coach for a school, losing restaurant jobs, Uber drivers etc. unfortunately they are in their mid 30’s to mid 40’s with non worked out bodies(with the exception of 2 of them that look better then they did in 2004 when i met them)! Several have moved back in with their parents with their wives and kids! today’s exchange rate is $5.30R to $1.00 US

Found this place from my casual browsing of social media. Anyone have experience or have anything to report about the place? From the pic i saw, definitely some good looking guy there. Located at ratchada Soi 7.

I don’t know about Sit2 sis. 76 Garage is a popular “ handsome guys” restaurant and packed with Thai customers.

now we know why Myanmar, Lao, Viet and Khmer guys are coming to work in BKK and Pattaya bars, moving assets to another country, LOL

Without prejudice: I think I would find Hospital Copa Star near Point as satisfactory as any in Montreal, depending on utilization factor given changing acute care demographics and resources in coronavirus context. There is also the geographical convenience of proximity between where you get the virus and where you get treated. The open air currents could literally transfer the same particles from 202 a block or two over as the viral material that you essentially walk over or get wheeled over with, the spiky hospital admission criterion lodged in your mucous membranes and circulatory systems.

thank you for report and all those customers keeping scene alive while we are waiting to be admitted to Thailand , hopefully before Songkran of 2023

Here is a Brazilian site where you can look city by city to see the trend in recent cases. Just like the USA certain areas may represent more risk. Look in the area on the page "Índice de destinos" and select your city/region--it will show the number of new cases from the week and what the trend is. https://www.viajenaviagem.com/2020/09/coronavirus-turismo-situacao-brasil/#indice

Novel coronavirus event exposure by N persons collectively or cumulatively based on point prevalence today in Brazil. 5 7.3% 10 14.0% 20 26.1% 30 36.5% 40 45.4% 50 53.0 % (approximately coin-toss odds) ———- 153 persons ... 90.0 % Incorporates national average ascertainment bias of 5.3 multiple in formula numerator; risk probabilities increase in regions with higher ratio of true prevalence to case report prevalence. Obviously Aruba is a shit show (courtesy of foreign national host imports) and Argentina riskier than Brazil.

Brazil 9th in world for risk

this comment from an article drew my attention : "As Mr. Ud told Associated Reporters “What good is it that I am safe from this virus that about 99% of people survive if I cannot eat and have no home and no way to take care of my family?”

good sign , it means life is coming back to normal. Bangkok without traffic gridlock is like church without God

From The Nation 'Bad' students make a strong case for reforms with huge rally at ministry "Bad student", a group of high school students and student organisations from 50 educational institutions nationwide, has gathered outside the Ministry of Education on Saturday (September 5) to press its demands for reforms. At 2pm, the protesters placed a lot of wreaths in front of the ministry's wall with messages stating that schools do not want dictatorship. At 3pm, the road in front of the ministry was packed with students who came out in large numbers for the rally. The group demanded that the ministry stop threatening students, cancel outdated regulations and reform education with the condition that the education minister must resign if the ministry cannot do as they demanded. Some 50 police officers from Dusit Metropolitan Police Station and Metropolitan Police Division 1 are providing safety to the protesters, while the protesters have requested permission to hold the rally until 8pm today. Meanwhile, the hashtag #หนูรู้หนูมันเลว (I know I was bad) was trending on Thai Twitter as school pupils rallied to demand democracy.

Resiliency is something people with jobs can more readily summon than those without.

...from the the seemingly endless on-again, off-again travel news, Richard Barrow might be just the ticket. I was introduced to his blogging by DivineMadman and remain grateful for the tip. He writes widely about travel throughout Thailand, giving his readers authentic reports because he gets actively involved and punctuates his posts with great photography. Whether it's sites he visited in Samut Prakan this weekend or an upcoming buffalo race in Chonburi, he forces us to share his appreciation of what Thailand has to offer. When I'm lucky enough to return, hopefully I'll heed his advice and get more adventurous. Richardbarrow.com

Private hospitals are closer to empty than full. I was at the Bumrumgrad pharmacy about 2 weeks ago. Hardly any patients waiting for medicine. That particular hospital depends for much of its income on middle east travellers. Not one to be seen. Not surprisingly, Bumrungrad has reduced its private room charges by 40% and other services by smaller amounts. BNH also seems to have less foreign patients. A Thai friend was recently at the huge Ramathibodi public hospital. he said it was like a station at rush hour!

The apps sure are busy with guys from Pattaya willing to come to Bangkok easily now!

I agree with you that those numbers about people who have made up their mind should be taken with a grain of salt. I know I beat the YouGov poll of Independents to death. But I found it funny that something like 93 % of them said they'd made up their mind. And when asked who they were voting for, I think 13 % said undecided. Of course, they could pretty much know and just not want to tell. My conclusion from the poll is that maybe 20 % of Independents are persuadable. At least 4 in 10 say Biden is not mentally fit and would make America less safe. A slightly higher percentage (high 40's) say President Toxic is not mentally fit, is the cause of the chaos, and/or will make America more violent if re-elected. So probably at least 8 in 10 Independents have ruled out at least one candidate. The issue with some of that 80 % is simply whether they vote. I've been reading every article I can find from the smartest political hacks in the room. Every one says, no surprise, that BOTH GOTV and persuasion matter. That said, more than ever, it's all about the base. The fact that we have unprecedented issues about getting a ballot, returning a ballot, and making sure the ballot is counted only makes that more true. There is something quite different than 2016. It's a factor that proved decisive in 2016, according to my buddy Karl Rove and me. I hope it proves decisive again. A majority of voters will cast ballots in 2020, just like they did in 2016, holding an unfavorable view of President Toxic. In 2016, a majority also had an unfavorable view of Hillary. In 2020, however, a majority DO NOT hold an unfavorable view of Joe Biden. He's very close to having a majority who hold a favorable view of him. That could be decisive. I recently posted the Rove 2016 video on a different post, so I won't repost. But Rove said that 2016 exit polls said that people who had negative opinions of both President Toxic and Hillary threw the election to Trump. The 15 % who said neither was qualified favored Trump 66/15. The 18 % who said they viewed both unfavorably favored Trump 47/30. Election 2016 Favorability Ratings Election 2020 Favorability Ratings You can check out the difference in favorability ratings yourself. I read statements earlier this year that Biden has about as wide a lead on favorability with Trump in 2020 as Clinton did in 2016. So, really, he has no advantage. That makes no sense to me. The key thing about Hillary is that the Republican Death Star was fully loaded with really stinky shit way back in 2014. And they spent two very shit-filled years smearing shit all over America. When it was done they done a really shitty job. Meaning they covered Hillary, and America, with shit. So there was never a day in Fall 2016 - NOT ONE DAY - when anything close to a majority of voters viewed Hillary favorably. In fact, EVERY DAY in Fall 2016 somewhere from 50 to 60 % of voters viewed Clinton unfavorably. The final average on Election Day was Clinton 54.4 % unfavorable, President Toxic 58.5 % unfavorable. Oddly, according to the exit polls, the fact that she was only slightly less disliked than President Toxic cost her the election, because that subset held their nose and voted for change. The massive shit operation probably also was intended to, and did, discourage Blacks and progressives who weren't wild about Hillary anyway to just not vote. We know that Sweet Rudy and Poor Brad tried the same thing in 2018 and 2019. They had an even bigger Death Star, loaded with even more and higher quality Grade A Stinky Shit. Hell, they were even importing superb, really exceptionally rare shit from Ukraine. Somehow, President Toxic got impeached over it. Alan Lichtman will tell you that now that's the extra seventh nail in Trump's coffin, just in case history fucks up and the sixth one - the shitty economy - isn't enough. So right now Biden has 48.3 % favorable and 46.6 % unfavorable in the RCP averages. President Toxic has 41.9 % favorable and 55.6 % unfavorable. It's a given that some people who don't think President Toxic is a good person will vote for him anyway. But this is different than 2016. Maybe the public will sour on Biden over the next few months. But we know President Toxic has thrown everything his racist, hateful, poor little mind can think of at Biden. There's another great line I love from Karl Rove that applies here. He said something like this about his strategy to get W. elected in re-elected: "In 2000, we had to convince people that it was the best of times. So it was time for a change. In 2004 we had to convince people that we're going through a rough patch. So it's a bad time to switch horses." You could reformulate what Rove said into something like this: In 2016 a lot of people didn't like Trump, or Clinton, or the way things were. So they voted for Trump, because they got change. In 2020 a lot of people like Biden. But they don't like Trump, or the way things are. So they'll vote for Trump, so things stay the same. The last sentence doesn't make much sense to me. But that is what President Toxic has to do. He tried to make it so that at least a majority of Americans viewed Biden unfavorably. But it hasn't worked, at least so far. If this is another change election, and the candidate who is offering change is one people actually like more, it's just bad news for President Toxic. Even if people change their mind, which they will, Biden has a better chance of benefiting from it. One more set of numbers that aligns, and seem like bad news for President Toxic. This year, there's very tight alignment between the RCP average favorability ratings, and who people say they'll vote for. As of today, 48.3 % view Biden favorably, and 49.6 % plan to vote for him. 41.9 % see President Toxic favorably, and 42.6 % plan to vote for him. It people who view each candidate favorably stick with that candidate, President Toxic is fucked. If this is like 2016, and the remaining 8 % who presumably don't view either candidate favorably break to Biden, President Toxic is even more fucked.

France is spiking in recent days and don't forget Spain. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/europe/france-coronavirus-cases.html&ved=2ahUKEwj9g5vo7NDrAhUFeisKHWkeBYoQFjAAegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw368YBG5F3u26w25Lm0Rxsa Reading the various forums, I note there are are many posters giving advice to Thailand on how to deal with the virus. Looking at their own country's track record on managing (or lack of) the virus they lack any credibility. Shortly, flu season will arrive in the northern climates and with it predictions of another covid wave. In America, a forecaster the White House uses is predicting 410,000 deaths by Jan 1 with a worst case scenario of over 600k. Think of that, hundreds of thousands of lives needlessly lost because of government mismanagement and selfish people not wearing masks and following well established guidelines. Thailand got it right; and one wonders who is the third world country, Thailand or my home country? Trust science, be patient, vaccines will be here shortly and we'll all be traveling again.

Dead heat: Trump erases Biden’s 8-point lead in Pennsylvania as black voters abandon Democrat So that headline is an eye catcher. I think it may help explain what's happening in Pennsylvania, after you dig into the numbers. Bottom line: I think it's a crock of shit. Before I say why, let me just post a head shot of the White conservative who wrote this article. He looks like a nice enough guy. But this is what you can call my privileged White liberal problem with White conservatives. I think they have a serious and deep racism problem that will be with them, personally and politically, for the rest of their days. I don't know previously Democratic White factory workers in Scranton who lost their jobs when W. was President. I do know and have known many affluent White conservatives. They don't spend lots of time with Black people - at church, at sports games, or anywhere. If anything, they know Blacks from work. And the Blacks they know tend to be their subordinates. Yet, somehow, they seem to think they have their finger on the pulse of the Black community - which is of course, a very diverse community. It's understandable enough if all they do is cite poll data. That's actually good. I try to learn what Blacks think by reading poll data. But if you're doing that, it's hard to miss the fact that at least 3 in 4 Blacks are strongly against President Toxic. And that at least 3 in 4 think he's a racist. White conservatives never mention that. Yet many of them do insist President Toxic is the least racist guy you'll ever meet. And that the Black people calling Trump a racist are the true racists. Is it unfair of me to conclude that most White conservatives don't want to hear, think about, or publicly deal with what most Blacks think about President Toxic's racism? Or the deep racial justice problems in President Toxic's America? What this White conservative clearly wants to believe is that 27 % of Blacks in Pennsylvania now support President Toxic. That's based on a Rasmussen poll. The White conservative does not offer a theory as to why he thinks this might be the case. Which at the margin supports my belief that they don't particularly give a shit what Blacks are thinking. Even the ones that maybe support their guy. It also supports my belief that the real purpose of articles like this is to persuade Whites who are on the fence that President Toxic can't be a racist. And that the Republican Party can't be racially tone deaf. After all, 1 in 4 Blacks - more than twice as many as 2016! - think he's a swell guy. Now back to reality. This other article from 2016 says Hillary got 88 % of the Black vote nationally in 2016. But in some key states, including Pennsylvania, she got over 90 % of the Black vote. That's all in the ballpark of what I've read for years. The big problem in 2016, and the big danger for Biden in 2020, is Blacks who don't particularly care and will just stay home. Comparing this Rasmussen poll to the Monmouth poll that showed Biden's lead in Pennsylvania shrinking from 13 points in July to 4 points now offers some insight. First, the Rasmussen poll was done during the convention, and the Monmouth poll was right after. That could make a small difference at the margin. The RNC featured Black conservative men making the case for President Toxic. That could have generated a small pro-Trump blip while it was happening. More important, Monmouth says that "voters of color" in Pennsylvania were for Biden 76/16 in July and are now for him 72/15. The biggest shift they noted is that undecided "voters of color" grew from 3 % in July to 9 % now. Monmouth says, "The Republican convention attempted to sow some seeds of doubt among core Democratic blocs, especially young and urban voters." Makes perfect sense to me. My guess is that in a change election, which is what I think this will be, "voters of color" who were with Biden in July and undecided right after the RNC will more likely than not break heavily for Biden when they vote. "Voters of color" includes Hispanics and Asians as well as Black. Monmouth does not disaggregate Black voters as a distinct group. So if 15 % of "voters of color" in Pennsylvania are for President Toxic right now, that means maybe President Toxic is getting a very low single digit - 10? 11? 12? - percent support from Blacks, whose support for Trump is substantially lower than Hispanics nationally. That's a long way from 27 %. Either Monmouth or Rasmussen is way off. The picture Monmouth paints is way more consistent with 2016 and what we know. It suggests that Biden is in roughly the same ballpark with Blacks as Clinton was in 2016. There are some undecided Blacks and Hispanics and Asians leaning toward him in July that he needs to solidify support from. But probably the biggest issue is the same as 2016: he needs to persuade many potential Black voters to actually vote. I find it much easier to buy Monmouth's analysis of what really shifted between July and now: men, mostly under 50, who probably tend to live in "swing districts" that used to be Democratic enclaves. My guess is some of them are Black, more of them are Hispanic, and most of them are White. I think Biden has a problem with both Black men and Hispanic men. The biggest problem with Black men is getting them to vote. The biggest problem with Hispanic men is getting them to vote for Biden. This other article sounds right about Biden's problems with Hispanic men in Florida: Biden lags among Florida Hispanic voters A new poll finds the Democratic nominee is running behind Hillary Clinton’s pace in the critical swing state. The silver lining in this cloud, as the article says, is that Biden is doing better than Hillary with other groups, like older Whites. And he's doing better with Hispanics than Sen. Bill Nelson was in 2018. It's not clear from what I've read how Biden is doing with Blacks in Florida, relative to Hillary. But the polls suggest that he's doing well enough to win, so far. That's just another data point that suggests to me that to close the deal Biden needs to focus on the economy, stupid. I have a hunch that with Hispanics in particular there's a conflict between COVID-19 and jobs. If they are under 50, like the men who are on the fence in Pennsylvania as well, they may tip a little more toward "reopen the economy so I can work" as opposed to "if I go to work and get COVID-19 I'll be in a hospital without health insurance, or dead." Beyond that is all the stuff about President Toxic is strong and tough, Biden is weak, President Toxic is a good businessman, President Toxic wants to help small businesses. I have no idea whether things like Marco Rubio's Paycheck Protection Program have helped President Toxic, hurt him, or it's just a wash. I'm assuming that, unlike with Blacks, there's a bunch of Hispanics who didn't qualify for stimulus checks or unemployment based on their immigration status. I suspect this cluster of issues will move Latino voters way more than riots or looting or crime. Mostly i think Biden needs to take a sledgehammer and try to demolish President Toxic's image as strong and effective. He's weak, mean, and incompetent. This is a good point to mention how Bernie was a blessing and a curse. If Biden ends up winning Florida by a point or two, and therefore the Presidency, that tells me Bernie would have lost Florida. As the article says, the "socialism" tag is deadly there. It's another reason I think the Bernie Sanders Show was not ready for prime time in 2020, even though I voted for him. That said, Democrats should be eternally indebted to Tio Bernie. He came closer than any national politician I've seen to figuring out how to organize and inspire Hispanics. He won Nevada that way. While he lost Texas, that was despite the fact that he got 150,000 more votes in Texas in 2020 than in 2016 - which could be more than the winning margin in statewide races there in 2020 and the future. I agree with this article that probably the best case scenario for Democrats with Hispanics in Florida is to hold our ground in 2020. And to have a Plan B to make up any potential decrease in Latino turnout somewhere else: like older Whites or Blacks. Ultimately, I think what the Democrats need and don't have is a Tío Bernando. Meaning a Latino or Latina politician who is authentically of the culture and can play a leading national role. (I don't like the whole "x" thing. "Tíx Bernie sounds like a breath freshener to me. Or maybe an ice cream brand.) Here's an old (2015) list of the "10 most influential Hispanic Americans in US politics". It's interesting that only 5 of them are elected officials, unlike Jorge Ramos (# 1) and Justice Sotomayer (#2). Of the elected officials, they rank Rubio/Cruz slightly higher than the Castro brothers. Clearly, Julián Castro did not emerge as the Hispanic Obama in 2020. The obvious name missing from the 2015 list is Tía AOC. My perception is that Democrats are doing a better job of dealing with their issues with Black Americans than they are with their issues with Hispanic Americans. Julián said something to that effect recently. The Hispanic community is in no way locked and loaded for Democratic Party moving forward. While I was reading about Hispanics in Florida, I ran across this two minute DNC piece about a Mexican American Mom President Toxic deported. I missed this during the DNC. One more reason to want to dump President Toxic.

I will miss you for a few weeks!

I was planning to go this year in November, but had to scrap my plans due to the pandemic. Will wait for tomcal's full report!

John Dean is out with a new book that offers another lens for viewing what's driving the election. This may help to explain some voting behavior that Lichtman's theory does not. Particularly the "stickiness" of President Toxic's supporters. John Dean's "Authoritarian Nightmare" That's a 24 minute audio interview of Dean. I listened to three interviews and read one review yesterday. If you prefer visual to audio this is an interesting interview of Dean on Democracy Now. The audio interview is longer and better for understanding his ideas. Amy asked him some interesting questions about current stuff. So it's a good interview, but a bit less about his book. I really miss Lookin from Daddy's forum. He was a very thoughtful poster. And he kept bringing up authoritarianism as a theme to explain Trumpism. As well as why so many people have been captured by the NRA. Dean and him were obviously reading the same books. Because everything Dean is saying echos points Lookin has made for years. I've got a very superficial understanding of the "science" behind this. But I'll summarize the basic theory in a paragraph, and then tell you my main takeaways from listening to about an hour of this stuff. The science of this started after World War 2. The initial question was: Could America fall to a Hitler or Mussolini? The answer researchers came up with was, "yes." Dean's co-author is one of the noted (and few) psychologists who is an expert on authoritarianism. There are psychological tests that have been used for decades that are believed to objectively measure support for authoritarianism. So the two key players in the nightmare are labelled Social Dominants and Authoritarian Followers. Social Dominants are the Trumps, who are power hungry Machiavellians who are driven to dominate others. Authoritarian followers are just that. In one interview Dean jokingly refers to them as "Daddy will make everything alright" types. They tend to be low information voters who are not great critical thinkers. At the extreme, this is the world of Q Anon and Deep State conspirators and radicals in dark clothes on airplanes. One takeaway is it reinforced my belief that the best way for people like me to change this is to do whatever I can to simplify defeat them. They're not John Kasich. They're not particularly interested in reason or compromise. But they do understand defeat. At one point, I think in the Amy Goodman interview, Dean says that, verbatim. They understand defeat. President Toxic is no Hitler or Mussolini. At least not yet. But it will end the same way. As I was listening to this I was reminded of that video Schwarzenegger made after Charlottesville about Nazis. He said growing up in Austria he knew these people were not heroes to honor. They were broken men who had been defeated. I suspect many of President Toxic's most ardent followers will feel the same way. They will understand defeat. But their impulse will not be to reconcile. This would be why they could nominate Don, Jr. in 2024, I think, even if his Dad lost. I hope I'm wrong. But I would not rule it out. If they nominate Nikki Haley, who I personally think is much less nuts, it would be because she succeeded in convincing the Trump base that she's basically Don in a dress. How exactly are these people going to be defeated? Dean says that young people don't follow President Toxic. He didn't say why in these interviews. But the fact that they are generally better educated and more critical thinkers probably has something to do with it, I suspect. The Berniecrats certainly have a different analysis about what's broken, and how to fix it. So the surest way to get rid of President Toxic is what I believe Dean called a "tsunamai" of youth voters. I've been reading smart Republican operatives for years who have been saying that a wave is coming that is going to wipe out Republicans, and Republicans are doing nothing to stop it. And that wave is young people. Separately, there is research that suggests that Millennials are acting like their parents: the older they get, the more likely they are to vote. That explains some part of Democratic wins in 2018. So this is just a huge unknown that could determine whether President Toxic wins Minnesota, on the one hand. Or loses Georgia, on the other hand. Rep. Omar was supposed to be vulnerable in her primary. But she blew her opposition away. That is one small data point that suggests that the opposition to President Toxic (and authoritarianism) may actually get out and vote. I checked on Omar. In 2018 she won her primary with 48 % of the vote out of about 135,000 votes cast. In 2020 she won 58 % of the vote out of about 178,000 votes cast. That may mean nothing. But I'm taking it as a sign that President Toxic's followers are not the only ones who are highly motivated to vote in this environment. One other point Dean made is that there has been a massive shift to the Republican Party of authoritarian followers. As a Democrat, that pleases me, if true. I don't want them in my party. The bad news, as @tassojunior keeps warning, is that if they consolidate in what is becoming The Authoritarian Party and elect someone even worse, that could move us into Hitler or Mussolini territory. Dean keeps referring to the known poll numbers of President Toxic's approval rating - 40 to 44 % - to describe his "base". I'd probably have to read the whole book to understand whether Dean thinks all of President Toxic's base are the "poorly educated" authoritarian followers President Toxic loves. Whatever Dean thinks, I think the slice he's describing is not all of them. My own sense is that President Toxic's followers are a minority, and this truly pro-authoritarian group is a significant minority within a minority. It is big enough that they were able to deliver the nomination to Trump in 2016. Which means they could do it again to someone else like him in 2024. In his closing comment to Amy Goodman, Dean says 24 to 29 % of President Toxic's followers said in a poll they will tolerate him ignoring The Constitution if he loses. Dean calls that "troubling". True. But even if we take the best case numbers for Trump, 29 % of a base that is 44 % of Americans on his best day is about 12 % of the electorate. If President Toxic loses, I don't see that 12 % of voters will be able to keep him in power. At least that's what I hope. Presumably this means 76 to 71 % of President Toxic's voters believe that if he lost the election, The Constitution says he has to go. This is another lens to view what is happening in the polls in Pennsylvania right now. The good news to me is that if Biden slipped back to "only" 49 % of the vote, that's consistent with the 49 % who said in both July and now they'll vote Democratic. So Democrats are close to what seems like a stable 50 % in Pennsylvania, at least so far. I think the best way to think about the people shifting around - who tend to be White men and under 50, and also maybe a slice of more conservative Black or Hispanic men, is this: jobs, jobs, jobs. It's the economy, stupid. But it's possible you can get to the same place by thinking authoritarianism, authoritarianism, authoritarianism. The phrase Dean used, "Daddy will take care of everything", sounds insulting and dismissive. But it does explain some things. It makes no sense to me, as an ideological guy who overthinks everything, that someone could say they'd vote for Bernie or Trump, but not Hillary. It makes more sense if I think the lens is simply, "Who's your Daddy?" Hillary isn't a very good Daddy. She's more like a nagging bureaucrat to a lot of these guys. Or just a bitch. So you can call it sexism. But seen through their eyes, it could be that they just don't see Hillary as the kind of guy that will take care of things for them. Standing next to Bernie in 2016, maybe they thought Bernie could take care of things better than Hillary. But then in 2020 we learned that Biden makes a better Daddy than Bernie all across states like Michigan and Wisconsin. Now they have to decide whether they like Daddy Biden or Daddy Trump. Viewed through this lens, it's even more clear that President Toxic's hateful tweet is aimed directly at people who Dean says are authoritarian followers. President Toxic is strong. All you get from Biden is a "weak response". So who's your Daddy? "President Trump is making it stop." President Toxic is your Daddy. He'll will take care of everything. If you buy this, Biden saying he's the most empathetic guy in the world doesn't close the deal. If anything, it confirms that Biden is no Daddy at all. He's a wimp. One of the things i think Biden is doing right is calling President Toxic weak. Biden and Harris are projecting the kind of strength that Angela Merkel and other female leaders in Europe tend to project. Which is to say, the kind of strength that appeals to women, and I think to critical thinkers. Biden can't be that and a mini-Mussolini at the same time. It makes no sense for Biden to try to out-Trump President Toxic to me. If these theories of psychology intersect with politics, I think the best way to connect the dots is jobs, jobs, jobs. The promise that Daddy made in 2016 that cut in the Rust Belt is that Daddy would go in to these devastated areas with closed factories and struggling families and businesses and lots of addiction and hurt. And Daddy would take care of things. Daddy has not only NOT taken care of things, which was true before the plague. He's made it worse. Before the plague, there were no new factory jobs in Pennsylvania. After the plague, which is thanks to Daddy fucking it all up so that over 200,000 will die by Election Day, they have fewer jobs. President Toxic isn't Daddy. He's not even Mommy. He's just chaos. Part of Dean's point is that these types of people are not high information thinkers. That's of course why they like Fox News. And why the ratings say in the Fox Universe they'd much rather listen to Sean Hannity than Chris Wallace. So here's some data, which is probably next to useless with true Trump followers. Even in the "best economy ever", Pennsylvania lost 2000 factory jobs between January 2019 and January 2020. If you start the clock from January 2017, when President Toxic promised to end American carnage, Pennsylvania has lost about 25,000 factory jobs under Trump, as of June 2020. Daddy isn't very good at getting the job done. There's a significant difference between Pennsylvania and Wisconsin if you look at long term trends. Whether it has any impact on elections, who knows? In Wisconsin, there are periods of "recovery" since 1990. In the 1990's, Wisconsin actually gained in the ballpark of 75,000 manufacturing jobs, to a peak of about 600,000. By the end of the Great Recession, almost 1 in 3 of those jobs were gone. From the trough of The Great Recession, they did gain back about 60,000 factory jobs - mostly under Obama/Biden. So the sense of it is two or three steps back, one step forward. Pennsylvania has had no "recovery" of manufacturing jobs for three decades. Even in the Clinton heyday, they lost 20,000 or so factory jobs. Under both Obama/Biden and President Toxic, the "recovery" of manufacturing was basically a flat line. So Wisconsin today is at least better off than during the worst days of the Great Recession. Pennsylvania is actually worse off. You can make up any theory you want about how this might impact voting behavior. It certainly explains why people who are not necessarily racist or sexist felt that eight years of Obama/Biden was enough, and they didn't need Hillary. But President Toxic hasn't been any better. You can make a good argument, based on factory jobs, he's been worse. Or you can argue that this is the kind of environment that breeds authoritarian followers. Nothing works. Nothing gets better. But at least we can feel and hope that Daddy is taking care of us. Biden has done well, I think, by being disarmingly honest. His line about "Do I look like a radical to you?" worked. So one way to deal with this, which in most cases would be horrible political advice, would be for Biden to look President Toxic in the eye at a debate and say, "Donald, you choked. You promised decent hard working people you'd bring back their factory jobs. And you choked. There are fewer factory jobs. You choked. You're weak. You let people down. You choked. People are worse off today. You're a choke artist, Donald. Don't you get it? Because everybody else does." That's going way too far. But Biden has been effective using President Toxic's own words against him. And if you go back to 1980, Biden has the opposite problem Reagan did. Reagan needed to prove he wasn't a radical. So he had to NOT be inflammatory. The disarming, "There you go again" did the trick. Biden needs to prove he is not weak. So turning some of Trump's authoritarian language against him might make sense. President Toxic is not strong. He's a choke artist. Something like that might help Biden. This is where I find Lichtman helpful. His theory is based on the idea that over a very long period of time, American voters have made sound judgments based on fundamentals. Like, "it's the economy, stupid." If he's right, the sound judgment in 2020 will be that President Toxic fell short, and should not be re-elected. Dean's numbers, if I understand him right, don't contradict this. If 15 % of Americans would choose President Toxic over The Constitution, that's probably something America can survive. The most pessimistic thing I feel, especially if I really buy into Dean's ideas about authoritarianism, is that this is a big problem for America for a long time to come. These people won't go away. And they are not likely to change their minds. I'd like to think George Will is right, and after Trump loses these are the people that will be purged from the Republican Party. Or they'll just take their marbles and go home. More likely, they will blame President Toxic's defeat on RINOs like George Will. And they'll purge any of the RINOs that are still left in their authoritarian party. One other thing I've said ties in here, and in reason for hope for me. I said that I didn't think in 2020 The Bernie Show (or The Social Democratic Show) was ready for prime time. One reason I said that is that the Berniecrats didn't vote in the droves that were hoped for. That in itself is not a great omen for Democrats for November 2020. But if I understand Dean, he says they are ultimately the best solution to this problem. I certainly feel that way. They are not attracted to authoritarian leaders. So if any of this is in the ballpark of correct, it's only a matter of time until a minority that responds to authoritarian leaders is crushed by an ascendant electorate that rejects Trumpism root and branch.

First of all, relax. I think you started this trip with very high expectations and somehow you sound slightly disappointed or frustrated here. Give time to yourself to learn the ropes, and do not assume that your experiences and interactions in your first few days are a reflection of what the Brazilian experience can be. As posted above, I have never had any issues with my preferred card, a MC. I reiterate this not to be redundant but to emphasize how quickly you are making judgements after a very brief time. Similarly, you are jumping too quick to doom yourself to ever have a garoto at home base. If you are a clear outsider and these are your first steps, perhaps you should not take a hook up (for free o for a fee) at your place. But do not say NEVER. I have brought many GPs and regular hook ups to my places in Salvador and Rio in Brazil and in Buenos Aires, I have never had any incidents in the last 25 years. I learned from the incidents I did have before. The last time a man stole anything from me was not in Brazil, Argentina, or Mexico, but in Washington DC. During my first year living here, when I was still getting acclimated, I made some poor decisions. It is not Brazil, it is not DC, it is our own temporarily lack of judgement because we think with our dicks instead of with our brains. Sometimes we do it at home, but when we are visiting an alien culture the risk is higher. Do not say never, instead learn from your mistakes and try again. You may have new "accidents", it depends on how much of a fast learner you are. You also seem to be a little disappointed (forgive me if I am misreading the nuance, my reading are just as poor as my writing skills) at the type of men you are meeting. Based on the descriptions I usually read here, I do not think I would find the men in Lagoa very attractive. I have not yet explored the saunas en SP, but I am making an analogy with what happens to me in Rio. Based in most of the reports shared here, 117 seems to be a heavenly paradise full of irresistible Adonises. Meeehhh. Unlike most of the friends here, it is Pointe 202 where I feel inspired by the offer. Again. Relax and give yourself sometime. Brazil is not going to change, we must.

i have been going to Brazil 20 years now and only use my mastercard! i use it at all the Hotels, restaurants, bars, saunas, etc never had a problem! It is connected to my checking so i also use it at the bank ATM. for no fee withdrawal

On the danger of Covid, I can't help but feel that it is much less of a menace now when I look at some simple numbers for France (which I did because some friends wanted to travel there, weren't sure but then decided to go): - daily new cases about the same as at the height of the crisis & lockdown in March - active cases actually THREE times as many as then 150k vs 50k) - but (almost) nobody dies from it any more I admit I haven't looked at any other countries, just France for the given reason, but I find that very striking.

Another thing about enforcement of road safety is the fines imposed. The fine is always the same, regardless of the severity or dangerousness of the violation. I give you some examples of fines I have incurred myself: park mosai on sidewalk or other spot where it's not permitted 400 Baht illegal u-turn (on mosai) 400 Baht speeding on motorway (in car; limit 90, actual 112, so not THAT bad) 500 Baht (would be same for much faster speed) Going through a red light, which depending on the nature of the intersection and the time of day/night can obviously be VERY VERY dangerous would also be just a paltry 500 Baht. In Germany, you lose your license for 1 month instantly on passing a red light, plus a steep fine, PLUS the highest number of points for a traffic violation (with a certain number of points you lose your license for good). Result: red lights in Thailand passed ALL the time, even in plain view of the police (I do that, too, these days when it is safe to do so) whereas nobody does it in Germany. A while ago I heard or read about proposals of introducing a points system here, too, but as usual nothing has come of it (yet) - TiT.

While this is correct, I'm afraid that those days we can find some specialists supporting any theory or hypothesis. When we move to a stage ' most specialists are now saying....." then we will know we know something.

Perhaps some Thai boys return to Pattaya in the hope that things are returning to normal. If this is the case I fear that they will be quickly be disillusioned. As z909 points out a small number of gay expats will provide very limited Income opportunities. I’ve observed that expats on their occasional evening visits to bars tend to sit together without much interaction with the bar boys and in the main keep to fairly tight monetary budgets. This is in contrast with gay tourists who during their two or three week visits like to make every evening count by engaging companions to join then in bed without too much concern for cost. Unfortunately they are currently imprisoned in their home countries with plenty of cash but being unable to visit where they would like to spend it.