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Trying to predict the future is often an exercise in futility but I won't let that keep me from giving it a try. When what eventually became known as Covid19 first began to get the attention of posters, the general sentiment of the board was that it's being overblown and the Silom/Patong scene would muddle through. Not an unreasonable assumption because at the time it was almost exclusively a China-centric issue. The first indications that it might be a bit more serious than that was a steady decline in tourists arriving into Bangkok. But most, myself included, assumed it would be a temporary setback. Fast forward a few months and we know that was short-sighted. I decided the best way to go out trying to discern the future was to look to the past. First--and probably most important--was the 1997 Asian financial Crisis. Here's an excerpt from Wikipedia (specific to Thailand's experience) I believe is noteworthy: From 1985 to 1996, Thailand's economy grew at an average of over 9% per year, the highest economic growth rate of any country at the time. Inflation was kept reasonably low within a range of 3.4–5.7%.[32] The baht was pegged at 25 to the U.S. dollar. On 14 May and 15 May 1997, the Thai baht was hit by massive speculative attacks. On 30 June 1997, Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh said that he would not devalue the baht. However, Thailand lacked the foreign reserves to support the USD–Baht currency peg, and the Thai government was eventually forced to float the Baht, on 2 July 1997, allowing the value of the Baht to be set by the currency market. This caused a chain reaction of events, eventually culminating into a region-wide crisis.[33] Thailand's booming economy came to a halt amid massive layoffs in finance, real estate, and construction that resulted in huge numbers of workers returning to their villages in the countryside and 600,000 foreign workers being sent back to their home countries. The baht devalued swiftly and lost more than half of its value. The baht reached its lowest point of 56 units to the U.S. dollar in January 1998. The Thai stock market dropped 75%. Finance One, the largest Thai finance company until then, collapsed.[35] On 11 August 1997, the IMF unveiled a rescue package for Thailand with more than $17 billion, subject to conditions such as passing laws relating to bankruptcy (reorganizing and restructuring) procedures and establishing strong regulation frameworks for banks and other financial institutions. The IMF approved on 20 August 1997, another bailout package of $2.9 billion. Right after the 1997 Asian financial crisis income in the northeast, the poorest part of the country, rose by 46 percent from 1998 to 2006. Nationwide poverty fell from 21.3 to 11.3 percent.[ By 2001, Thailand's economy had recovered. The increasing tax revenues allowed the country to balance its budget and repay its debts to the IMF in 2003, four years ahead of schedule. The Thai baht continued to appreciate to 29 Baht to the U.S. dollar in October 2010. I'm not saying that the Covid19 crisis will rise to this level. It could very well run a course not unlike it is doing now in China. Yes, it was a crushing blow to the Chinese economy but conditions appear to be on the rebound. Although it's likely there will be hiccups along the way, we'd like to believe that the worst is behind them. If we agree that the first cases were detected (but not widely reported) in November that means the episode has taken roughly four months to stabilize. If Thailand can continue to pursue strong containment measures, there's little reason not to believe that it can have a similar outcome. But Thailand is a least a few months behind the curve compared to China so a it seems reasonable that it could achieve stabilization by June. But what would "stabilization" look like on the ground? I think we know what it won't be like: a magical return to business as usual overnight. More likely, it will be a slow rebound that may track track China's evolving progress as it claws its way back. The government announced yesterday that it's prepared to borrow heavily to stimulate the Thai economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) could once again emerge as a prime source of the needed funds. So how would this all translate to the status of the bars and other venues in the Silom/Patpong? That I find a bit more challenging because all jobs are not going to return at the same time or at the same rate. I'd think that jobs in the malls and food vending might be among the first to start climbing. Tourism would lag for several reasons. Tourists who would normally be counted upon return again may have lost their jobs or had their incomes reduced. Some of those who are able to travel may still have lingering fears about the virus. As airlines begin to slowly ramp up service, they'll likely be very cautious about increasing capacity. Although they'll all be looking for cash flow, there main objective will be optimum fleet utilization as opposed to engaging in fare wars with competitors. In other words, don't necessarily look for huge bargains. So aviation-related jobs will definitely tick up but at a restrained pace. The same with hotels. The results will be that those who made their living in these industries could well decide to look elsewhere. As for the entertainment zones and massage shops get the go-ahead to resume business, it's not impossible that young Thai men and women may look upon these occupations more favorably. They did, after all, once dominate these jobs. But what actually happens may be altogether different.

After 1997 crisis Thailand rebounded spectacularly but not without a scratch. Monumrnts of that economic collapse are dotting Bangkok here and there, most prominent I guess, one for all to see is shell of highrise right beside Saphan Taksin station. About post's main issue my prediction is that as soon as conditions will return to something resembling normalcy and borders will open, Silom/ Patpong will rebound quite fast. Humanity likes good times and this neighborhood is good at delivery of that. But most likely not all bars and massages will re-open and not all our favorite guys will return as in meantim ethay may find other opportunities. I'm in talks with IMF and fully committed to support their package for Thailand with my own contribution as soon as it will be feasible ie. borders will open , airlines will start flying and I don't die of virus or something in meantime. You have it in writing here

CNN Headline of the day: Why Walmart is seeing a rise in sales for tops, but not bottoms during the coronavirus crisis

From Bangkok Post Pattaya pub becomes community kitchen PATTAYA: The coronavirus pandemic has turned a pub in this resort city into a community kitchen serving free food for workers who have lost jobs when the global tourism industry ground to a halt. Surajai Attanart, owner of the Differ Night Pub, and his workers feed up to 1,000 residents who have fallen on hard times due to the pandemic that has infected 530,000 worldwide, killed more than 24,000 and prompted many countries including Thailand to close their borders. Thailand’s measures to suppress the spread of the disease have left many without jobs as many businesses, mainly in entertainment and spas, were closed down. Like many others, Surajai’s business is hurting, but he wanted to contribute to the community. “On our part, we’re giving out free food to people who have borne the brunt of the situation. At least, (this way), they can save around 40 to 50 baht for a meal per day, adding a lifeline for them,” Surajai, 43, told Reuters. About a thousand lunch boxes are packed daily in the pub’s kitchen, where dozens of the remaining workers gather to prepare ready-to-eat meals. https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1887855/pattaya-pub-becomes-community-kitchen

Just Friends, a Dutch gay movie, stars Josha Stradowski as the protagonist in a gay love movie. As much as I liked the movie, I went nuts for Josha. He's handsome, hung, and has a chiseled physique. Here's a Behind The Scenes look: You can watch the movie here. It's also on Amazon Prime. He looks good in underwear And, without it

This flight is business class not economy

This is a flight for business class from New Jersey to Bogota in September with no bag fees

Picked up someone at a gay bar downtown. That's the last thing I remember before waking up in my hotel a day and a half later with most of my stuff stolen, including clothes. I called hotel security and they showed me a video with me coming back with 2 guys and a girl (a girl, wtf?). Security told me I was very lucid and said they were with me.....he's the one that told me about Devil's Breath, I thought it was alcohol related , or someone put a roofie in my drink.

I know u still want more of Tob Thongsaeng, so here's more very, very hot pics of him...enjoy everyone!!!

Yup, ur welcome, this hot pics are for all members, I know we miss BKK so much right now so why not bring the hot3x Thai guys here, I'm really glad I made u all happy, so more pics 2 come!!!

From South China Morning Post European, US travellers scramble for flights as Asia’s key transit hubs close Phil Hopkins found himself dashing to find new flights after Hong Kong, one of Asia’s busiest transit hubs, on Monday announced it was banning stopovers and closing its borders to visitors. While his 25-hour flight from Surabaya back to Boston was meant to be a simple one, with a single stop in Hong Kong as he was flying Cathay Pacific, his journey swelled to four flights via Jakarta, Tokyo and Chicago – lasting a mammoth 34 hours and 30 minutes. “This is a very difficult situation. I was very surprised that they closed a major airport to all transit,” the 30-year-old American said. “Luckily I have been watching the news closely.” sia’s key transit airports are now no-go zones, swept up by lockdowns and sweeping travel restrictions as governments look to curb the spread of Covid-19. Hong Kong has joined Singapore, Taiwan and Malaysia in banning short-term visitors, while major airlines have announced plans to cut all but a handful of flights. Katie Wingfield, 49, was coming to the end of a six-week trip across New Zealand and Australia, but the closure of Hong Kong as a transit hub meant her flight to London via Perth was no longer possible. There was a “mad scramble to find flights”, the British national said, as Hong Kong and Singapore were both closed to transit – the island nation having closed its borders to short-term visitors on March 22. Wingfield’s only remaining option was to pay A$19,000 (US$11,380) for two business-class tickets on Qatar Airways to London via Doha, the last major transit hub that is still open. In fact, Qatar Airways has in recent days been adding more flights on top of the 150 daily services it currently operates to get more people home, particularly those living in Australia. David Flynn, founder of online travel news website Executive Traveller, said: “As more and more airlines reduce flights and in many cases abandon routes, having a major gateway airport suddenly declared off-limits to transit passengers is sheer travel trauma.” Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines, two major Asian carriers reliant on transfer passengers, have already slashed flight schedules and by next month will operate just 4 per cent of their planned services. In other virus-stricken countries in the region, including mainland China and South Korea, travel options via major airlines are few and far between. Emirates and Etihad this week grounded all flights, cutting off two connector airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Hong Kong is the worst-affected airport in terms of the number of flights cut so far, with an 81 per cent reduction in passenger capacity, according to aviation data company OAG. The airport is still the world’s busiest cargo airport, however, and has had more freighter flights than passenger flights over the past week. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3077252/coronavirus-european-us-travellers-scramble-flights-asias-key

Perhaps RH is so used to bragging, he doesn't know how often he is bragging anymore. He could read his recent post about having to give a luxury Italian vacation (during the coronavirus pandemic). He may have dodged the virus.

It's good to talk about love sometimes. I know that I'm not the only one on this forum who is in a relationship and, at this difficult time, is finding it particularly hard to be so far away. And so, here's my contribution. One idiom that P always appreciates....come to think of it, it's about the only time I'm allowed to use my execrable Thai....is "Rak khun tao fah". I love you like the sky. Try it on your boyfriends. I find that it always brings a smile.

My read of it is that visa holders (other than work permit or people who fall into the other specific categories) are simply not permitted to enter. There is no mention of visa people being allowed in, and that is consistent with how many other countries have behaved when they have shut their borders. You can't come in even if you have a previously-issued visa. That is also how the CAAT and IATA have read the rule. Only the "enumerated" classes of people can come in. As a result, even if you have a previously granted visa, you can't come in. That would pick up O and 0-A (and and TR and PE and ED) visas. Retirement extension folks I think are all either 0 or 0-A (a topic that got a lot of attention when the new health insurances rules were announced for one of those). I am sure that there will be lots of difficult fact patterns that they haven't addressed or possibly even thought of. For example, someone who is out of the country with a re-entry stamp but intended to come back to renew his or her extension but now cannot. Will he have to start the whole process over? And some people will almost certainly be royally screwed. But I think that often happens with emergency decrees - it's the nature of fallible humans around the world operating in chaotic times.

The gay playwright Terrence McNally has died at 81 from complications of the coronavirus. He wrote some very memorable plays, including Love, Valour, and Compassion. In the process he won four Tony Awards. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/theater/terrence-mcnally-dead-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Theater

LA Times theater critic Charles McNulty writes an appreciation for Terrence McNally. It's McNulty on McNally! https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/story/2020-03-24/terrence-mcnally-appreciation-mcnulty

Vinapu - you have me dreaming again here in locked down England with my memories !. I once took a boy to Koh Tao for 3 days and it rained all the time, but we had lots of sex with the rain rattling on the tin roof of the bungalow. Looking at maps of the Philippines I’m impressed by the number of Islands - maybe hundreds of then, each no doubt with a slightly different culture. I wonder if there can be negative reactions to older gay men with young boyfriends ?. At hotels for instance asking for a double bed or maybe holding hands on the beach.

I wrote a reply to Dave but it was a private message. I am sure he will not mind my posting it here. Dave, I think going to the South of the Philippines, to Cebu City, is better than to Manila. The many guys there are looking for a Friend, or Relationship, and are very open to Traveling with an older man. They are not Money Boys in the same sense as Thailand. But they do like Friends with Benefits and All Expense Paid Travel!! As I have said, I met most of my guys on PlanetRomeo, now it is just Romeo. If you are using an Andriod Phone you can CAM on Romeo. They also like to chat and CAM on Whatsapp and some use LINE. Once you make a Friend it is better to use Facebook. In the Philippines, the two Mobile companies, Globe and SMART, give the guys free TXT on FB and FB Messenger. But there is a charge for data if you want to CAM. As to places to visit, there are many on Cebu Island. To the north there are the Islands of Bantayan and Malapascua. Both are beautiful. I do not recommend the Camotes, they are not as well developed. Then down south there is Oslob, to see the giant whale sharks, and Santander, to go Cayoneering!! If you are in good shape you will love a guided tour down the river and jumping 20 feet or more into a pool of water!! One area I have not been is Tubuelah. It is on the other side of the Island, to the north, and has a beautiful beach. Not very developed. About 2 hours by Bus from Cebu City. Many of the Pinoy guys are Tops, or on the web they say they are Bi, which means Manly. If they say they are Gay it means they are more Fem and often a Bottom. I have visited many other places in the South. You might consider taking a young man to Palawan Island, to El Nido, Coron, or Sabang. You can fly to Puerto Princesa from Manila or Cebu City. And there are flights to Boracay Island from Manila and Cebu. Cebu also has several International Airlines connecting there. So there are good choices of Fares. Now when will it be safe to travel to the Philippines?? Who knows??? Here in the USA they are saying it might be 18 months before the COVID-19 virus is gone. GOOD LUCK!!

From Coconuts Bangkok Health minister under fire again After scolding foreigners who don’t wear masks and saying that they’re “dirty”, the public health minister was in hot water again yesterday when he criticized healthcare workers who are infected with COVID-19. Answering a question to a reporter on Thursday regarding measures to prevent medical personnel from becoming infected with COVID-19, Anutin Charnvirakul criticized infected medical staff for not “taking good care of themselves.” “We’re not happy,” Anutin said. “Health personnel should set an example for the public [on how to protect themselves against the virus]. They should always be on alert and, especially at this time of an outbreak, they should best protect themselves.” Eleven healthcare professionals in total were reported to have been infected with COVID-19. https://coconuts.co/bangkok/news/health-minister-under-fire-again-saying-infected-medical-staff-werent-being-careful/